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OOTP 20 - Historical Simulations Discuss historical simulations and their results in this forum.

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Old 11-18-2019, 05:58 PM   #61
Beirnej1
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Quote:
Originally Posted by actionjackson View Post
Were you using a specific season to base your stats off of, or just progressing year-to-year? I now use OOTP Classic for injuries and high position player fatigue, and I'm finding it pretty much mirrors what happened in terms of G, PA, and AB in terms of the leaders in those three categories. When I used average position player fatigue, I got about three times as many players hitting the 155 G, 650 PA, and 600 AB thresholds, which I didn't like at all. I also use Strict Rotation, occasionally highest rested, and that seems to do the best at holding down the leaders in IP to more 1984ish numbers, so I don't see 350 inning guys, which looks dumb when using that season for your stats output.

Another suggestion I'll make is to consult this page and find the proper BABIP for the season you want your stats to be based on. The game inflates it by 2-4 points, and that can make a lot of difference even though it doesn't sound like much. Even if you're progressing through history, I would ensure that you have the proper BABIP on your Stats & AI page using that BB-Ref page.
So I was using 1993 as my stats output. I have to admit I didn't realize the inflated BABIP until I read one of your posts.

My homerun leaders were perfect, Kiner lead the league in year one with 39 and then Goose Goslin and Ryan Howard tied that mark in year 2.

I am using Low injuries and High fatigue which I like.

The AVG and runs are just too high, more than I was hoping for.
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Old 11-18-2019, 06:09 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by Beirnej1 View Post
So I was using 1993 as my stats output. I have to admit I didn't realize the inflated BABIP until I read one of your posts.

My homerun leaders were perfect, Kiner lead the league in year one with 39 and then Goose Goslin and Ryan Howard tied that mark in year 2.

I am using Low injuries and High fatigue which I like.

The AVG and runs are just too high, more than I was hoping for.
Was this the inaugural season of the league or are you further along with it? Sometimes, inaugural seasons can be somewhat wacky, and the stats settle down by year three. I think year two would be a correction depending on how far out of whack the first season's stats were.
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It's been a pleasure doing business with you"

- RIP Gord Downie (The Tragically Hip) February 6th, 1964 - October 17th, 2017
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Old 11-18-2019, 06:17 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by actionjackson View Post
Was this the inaugural season of the league or are you further along with it? Sometimes, inaugural seasons can be somewhat wacky, and the stats settle down by year three. I think year two would be a correction depending on how far out of whack the first season's stats were.
That was year 2. I just started year 3, just over a month into year 3.

Goslin won the MVP in year 2 hitting .400, 39 and somewhere around 125 rbis and he missed about 35 games with an injury.

Frustrating because some numbers are right where i want them and other things are high and drives me crazy

Hate to start over when Iíve been playing this league since April
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Old 11-19-2019, 06:26 PM   #64
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I really should be getting my own thread, but I promise to do so when my game gets going for realsies. I just wanted to compare the first round picks in the draft waaay up thread that I showed pictures for.

Pre-Defined Draft Value turned off:

1. George W Harper RF
2. Carlos Delgado 1B
3. Mickey Mantle RF(?)
4. Jesse Barfield RF
5. Jim Essian C
6. Rico Brogna 1B
7. Dave LaPoint SP
8. David Green CF
9. Buck Martinez C
10. Bill Knickerbocker SS
11. Justin De Fratus RP
12. Mario Soto SP
13. Marty Krug SS
14. Damian Moss SP
15. Damon Mashore LF
16. Frank Viola SP

Pre-Defined Draft Value turned on:

1. Mickey Mantle RF
2. Carlos Delgado 1B
3. Frank Viola SP
4. Jesse Barfield RF
5. Dave LaPoint SP
6. Mario Soto SP
7. Carl Scheib SP
8. Al Holland RP
9. George W Harper RF
10. Dutch Henry SP
11. Mike Mason SP
12. Buck Martinez C
13. Dick Kelley SP
14. Dave Eiland SP
15. Josh D Fields RP
16. Damian Moss SP

The AJ method (non-pre defined DV rank, pre-defined DV rank):

1. Mickey Mantle (3,1)
2. Frank Viola (16,3)
3. Jesse Barfield (4,4)
4. Carlos Delgado (2,2)
5. Mario Soto (12,6)
6. George W Harper (1,9)
7. George Case (29,20)
8. Jim Essian (5,21)
9. Al Holland (19,8)
10. Ossie Vitt (44,17)
11. Claro Duany (Negro Leaguer) (N/A)
12. Dave LaPoint (7,5)
13. Mike Mason (21,11)
14. Lew McCarty (26,30)
15. David Green (8,36)
16. Dick Kelley (20,13)

There's some craaazy variance there. What does everyone think?
__________________
"Tests have shown that suspicious or hostile
Their lives need not be shortened
Truth be told, they can live a long, long while
Tickled to death by their importance...

He said, you made me scared too, I wasn't sure I was getting through
I gotta go
It's been a pleasure doing business with you"

- RIP Gord Downie (The Tragically Hip) February 6th, 1964 - October 17th, 2017

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Old 11-20-2019, 09:11 AM   #65
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I've moved into September now and nothings changed in the NL. Boston remains 12 games in front of Pittsburgh. In the AL, St. Louis has upped their lead to 8 games over the Boston Americans. The Americans bullpen is killing them. Their bullpen ERA is well above 5 and no lead is safe once a starter departs.

A team that's been interesting to watch this year is the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs are still pretty bad and will finish in the bottom half of the NL, but they're are showing strong signs of improvement. Ted Williams is leading the NL in hitting and Johnny Antonelli has 19 wins to lead all NL pitchers in that category. Sad thing is, Larry Rosenthal last years rookie of the year has tanked this year, hitting below .200 so far.

On the flipside would be the New York Highlanders. The Highlanders were in contention for most of 1904, but an awful August in which they dropped 12 straight game has them bouncing between 6th and 7th place in the AL. Brooklyn has yet to show any signs of improvement in the NL and the Giants can best be described as mediocre.

Mickey Mantle now has 27 home runs to lead the AL. He's hitting .340+ and 10+ WAR with roughly 30 some games to play. His on base percentage is in the .480 range. His teammate Carlos Gonzalez loves him to the tune of an AL leading 108 RBI.

Sad to say I'm praying Greg Maddux retires after the 1904 season. Maddus is 38 and the OOTP Gods have not been kind to him. Towards the end of 1902 Cleveland moved Maddux to the bullpen. They kept him there for the entire 1903 season. Maddux did not impress. The Naps then traded Greg to the Boston Americans prior to the 1904 season. I thought, maybe a change of scenery would do Maddux some good and maybe he could turn things around. The opposite occurred, as Greg may have declined even more. He now sits at the bottom of the American's pen.
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Old 11-20-2019, 10:04 AM   #66
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I've really been surprised by the fact that I've yet to have a repeat champion in either league. So far, each season has produced a new front runner. I wonder if this is just a coincidence or is it's because I'm using the Reserve Clause? I wouldn't doubt 1 year recalc could be playing a role as well. In the end, I'm guessing this trend will change at some point and I will see some teams start to repeat.

I'm really enjoying Garlon's stadium mod. These stadiums look great in 2D Classic.

Have any of you had Trevor Story in any of your random debut leagues? I've had him a couple times now and I have to say he is yet to disappoint. Currently Story is hitting 3rd for the St. Louis Cardinals and doing very well.
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Old 11-20-2019, 10:28 AM   #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by actionjackson View Post
I really should be getting my own thread, but I promise to do so when my game gets going for realsies. I just wanted to compare the first round picks in the draft waaay up thread that I showed pictures for.

Pre-Defined Draft Value turned off:

1. George W Harper RF
2. Carlos Delgado 1B
3. Mickey Mantle RF(?)
4. Jesse Barfield RF
5. Jim Essian C
6. Rico Brogna 1B
7. Dave LaPoint SP
8. David Green CF
9. Buck Martinez C
10. Bill Knickerbocker SS
11. Justin De Fratus RP
12. Mario Soto SP
13. Marty Krug SS
14. Damian Moss SP
15. Damon Mashore LF
16. Frank Viola SP

Pre-Defined Draft Value turned on:

1. Mickey Mantle RF
2. Carlos Delgado 1B
3. Frank Viola SP
4. Jesse Barfield RF
5. Dave LaPoint SP
6. Mario Soto SP
7. Carl Scheib SP
8. Al Holland RP
9. George W Harper RF
10. Dutch Henry SP
11. Mike Mason SP
12. Buck Martinez C
13. Dick Kelley SP
14. Dave Eiland SP
15. Josh D Fields RP
16. Damian Moss SP

The AJ method (non-pre defined DV rank, pre-defined DV rank):

1. Mickey Mantle (3,1)
2. Frank Viola (16,3)
3. Jesse Barfield (4,4)
4. Carlos Delgado (2,2)
5. Mario Soto (12,6)
6. George W Harper (1,9)
7. George Case (29,20)
8. Jim Essian (5,21)
9. Al Holland (19,8)
10. Ossie Vitt (44,17)
11. Claro Duany (Negro Leaguer) (N/A)
12. Dave LaPoint (7,5)
13. Mike Mason (21,11)
14. Lew McCarty (26,30)
15. David Green (8,36)
16. Dick Kelley (20,13)

There's some craaazy variance there. What does everyone think?
Cool beans. Don't ever worry about posting things in this thread. In terms of participation, my favorite thread of all time was the one you started back in the OOTP 16 Historical Forum. It became a place for all of us to share bits and pieces of our leagues.

I stink in terms of keeping one of these threads active as sometimes I just want to play and forget to make updates. Plus, I'm not the best writer and the things I find interesting are often things others probably find blah.
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Old 11-20-2019, 08:29 PM   #68
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Cool beans. Don't ever worry about posting things in this thread. In terms of participation, my favorite thread of all time was the one you started back in the OOTP 16 Historical Forum. It became a place for all of us to share bits and pieces of our leagues.

I stink in terms of keeping one of these threads active as sometimes I just want to play and forget to make updates. Plus, I'm not the best writer and the things I find interesting are often things others probably find blah.
Thank you DW. I appreciate the reassurance. WRT that thread, it can be found here. I recall it being quite collaborative, and active. It was actually started just before OOTP18 came out (started Feb 15, 2017). Whenever my league starts, I may actually use more pictures than words in the thread that I start (eventually, I swear) to cover it because I want to get through more seasons in this version. It feels like the stats output is tighter in the game this year, and that really makes me want to get a long game going. I think my BABIP discovery has helped, but it's also possible something was done by the muckety mucks at OOTP to make it so.

Given the fact that the Historical Draft Values are very meh (in fact one might say wacky...yes I think wacky is the word) this year, I'll also be spending more time figuring out who should be drafted where, as I did last year (sadly). I've built a sweet spreadsheet for that, which makes it easier, but it's still more time consuming than I'd like it to be. My system ain't perfect either. It's based on WAR, and WAA (Wins Above Average) which are also imperfect, but I think it'll be better towards the top end of the draft than what we have in game now.

There are guys who'll be picked way at the back of the draft who will succeed in OOTP despite being kind of awful IRL (see Rico Brogna - his card indicates to me that he may become a stud, which is weird based on his RL career). Cup of coffee guys will tend to go in the middle of the draft. In some ways that looks weird, but if you think about it, those types of players will tend to ride the player development wave more than players who had more reps to show their talent IRL. So it's not perfect, but I don't think any system is. I just can't stand the fact that there's a system in place that will allow for an inner, inner, inner circle HoF to go anywhere but 1st overall, unless there's actually another all-timer who was better IRL, and those problems won't exist with mine.
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"Tests have shown that suspicious or hostile
Their lives need not be shortened
Truth be told, they can live a long, long while
Tickled to death by their importance...

He said, you made me scared too, I wasn't sure I was getting through
I gotta go
It's been a pleasure doing business with you"

- RIP Gord Downie (The Tragically Hip) February 6th, 1964 - October 17th, 2017
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Old 11-20-2019, 08:35 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by David Watts View Post
I've really been surprised by the fact that I've yet to have a repeat champion in either league. So far, each season has produced a new front runner. I wonder if this is just a coincidence or is it's because I'm using the Reserve Clause? I wouldn't doubt 1 year recalc could be playing a role as well. In the end, I'm guessing this trend will change at some point and I will see some teams start to repeat.

I'm really enjoying Garlon's stadium mod. These stadiums look great in 2D Classic.

Have any of you had Trevor Story in any of your random debut leagues? I've had him a couple times now and I have to say he is yet to disappoint. Currently Story is hitting 3rd for the St. Louis Cardinals and doing very well.
I saw Story in 19. Dude was a rock star. Then again, he's an extremely good SS IRL. Ian Happ was a rock star too.
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"Tests have shown that suspicious or hostile
Their lives need not be shortened
Truth be told, they can live a long, long while
Tickled to death by their importance...

He said, you made me scared too, I wasn't sure I was getting through
I gotta go
It's been a pleasure doing business with you"

- RIP Gord Downie (The Tragically Hip) February 6th, 1964 - October 17th, 2017
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Old 11-21-2019, 08:47 AM   #70
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Please forgive me if I am posting in the wrong place but I thought I would mention my random debut since it is a little bit unique.
I did not want a league where some of history’s better player’s would already be in there 30s at league start and I did not want a league where a cup of coffee player would play until they were 38 or so.
I used neutralized stats, 3 years double weight recalc.. Weaken adjust set to 225/100 and 35/20, these numbers seem to work for me. I use 1941 as my base year every year. 5 round draft, 144 game schedule, injuries off, fatigue medium.

What I did was start a standard historical game in 1897, turned off player miss seasons and players retire according to history AND for development I set aging to 4. Yes to 4. That way players that were out of baseball by age 27 or 28 IRL would be free agents or out of baseball in my league by age 33 or 34.
I fast played my game to spring of 1901, went to league functions and erased league history, career stats, etc., had inaugural draft and reset rookie draft to start importing players 1901-1980, I did not want players from steroid era. There were about 700 players available for inaugural draft. The starting lineups for the teams where pretty much what you would expect if you started a league in 1901. There were about 10 average players in starting lineups that were out of baseball in real life by 1901. I was somewhat worried that a couple players might have out of wack stats since I was using 1941 stats but they were all reasonable, no weird outliers. I am now in 1905 and everything seems to be going well. Billy Williams, Jim Fergosi, Curt Flood, Red Ames, and others have now joined my league at their rookie age.
Of course I am not saying this is the best way to play, just another way to play that is working for me.
Hope you found this somewhat interesting.
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Old 11-21-2019, 09:14 AM   #71
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Please forgive me if I am posting in the wrong place but I thought I would mention my random debut since it is a little bit unique.
I did not want a league where some of history’s better player’s would already be in there 30s at league start and I did not want a league where a cup of coffee player would play until they were 38 or so.
I used neutralized stats, 3 years double weight recalc.. Weaken adjust set to 225/100 and 35/20, these numbers seem to work for me. I use 1941 as my base year every year. 5 round draft, 144 game schedule, injuries off, fatigue medium.

What I did was start a standard historical game in 1897, turned off player miss seasons and players retire according to history AND for development I set aging to 4. Yes to 4. That way players that were out of baseball by age 27 or 28 IRL would be free agents or out of baseball in my league by age 33 or 34.
I fast played my game to spring of 1901, went to league functions and erased league history, career stats, etc., had inaugural draft and reset rookie draft to start importing players 1901-1980, I did not want players from steroid era. There were about 700 players available for inaugural draft. The starting lineups for the teams where pretty much what you would expect if you started a league in 1901. There were about 10 average players in starting lineups that were out of baseball in real life by 1901. I was somewhat worried that a couple players might have out of wack stats since I was using 1941 stats but they were all reasonable, no weird outliers. I am now in 1905 and everything seems to be going well. Billy Williams, Jim Fergosi, Curt Flood, Red Ames, and others have now joined my league at their rookie age.
Of course I am not saying this is the best way to play, just another way to play that is working for me.
Hope you found this somewhat interesting.
Please keep us informed on your progress. Very interesting setup.
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Old 11-21-2019, 09:49 AM   #72
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Nice to see Sal Bando doing well. Really underrated dude who could do it all. Dick Allen too. I'm stunned that man's not in the Hall, except of course that he was a bit of a crusty bastard, who probably turned off sportswriters and his fellow peers. Waiting for Sierra's inevitable cliff dive too. He looked so good early in his career, and then inexplicably fizzled in his mid to late 20s.
Man, hate to say it but Bando is struggling even worse than Allen in 1904. Only 10 home runs and hitting in the .195 range. Sometimes this game is not kind.
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Old 11-21-2019, 12:44 PM   #73
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Man, hate to say it but Bando is struggling even worse than Allen in 1904. Only 10 home runs and hitting in the .195 range. Sometimes this game is not kind.
Oof. How old is he?
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"Tests have shown that suspicious or hostile
Their lives need not be shortened
Truth be told, they can live a long, long while
Tickled to death by their importance...

He said, you made me scared too, I wasn't sure I was getting through
I gotta go
It's been a pleasure doing business with you"

- RIP Gord Downie (The Tragically Hip) February 6th, 1964 - October 17th, 2017
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Old 11-21-2019, 08:26 PM   #74
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oof. How old is he?
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Old 11-21-2019, 08:52 PM   #75
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Ugh.
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Their lives need not be shortened
Truth be told, they can live a long, long while
Tickled to death by their importance...

He said, you made me scared too, I wasn't sure I was getting through
I gotta go
It's been a pleasure doing business with you"

- RIP Gord Downie (The Tragically Hip) February 6th, 1964 - October 17th, 2017
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Old 11-22-2019, 09:52 AM   #76
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Ah, finally a World Series to rave about. The 1904 series between the St. Louis Browns and the Boston Beaneaters started out looking like it was going to be another ho-hum affair. The series kicked off in Boston. Right off the bat Boston jumped out to a lead when Mike Trout took Johnny Allen deep in the bottom of the first. A couple innings later, Trout would smack another Allen pitch out of the stadium this time with 2 on base and Boston was cruising. Trout wasn't done either. He would come to the plate later in the game with the bases loaded and drill a triple. Game one was a blowout.

Game 2 wasn't much better. Again Boston built a sizable lead and St. Louis struggled at the plate. Josh Beckett pitched a gem for the Boston.

Off to St. Louis with the Browns down O-2. Boston once again jumps out to an early lead. This time it's Dusty Baker doing all the damage with 2 bombs driving in 5. The Beaneaters take a 7-2 lead into the 9th and hand the ball to Joaquin Benoit to seal the deal. Ah being a Tiger fan, I couldn't help but get a chuckle out of what happened next. The Browns explode for 6 runs and a walk off win. We have us a series.

The next two games in St. Louis go to the Browns. Mike Trout has went silent along with the rest of his Beaneater teammates.

It's back to Boston, with the Browns up 3 games to 2. The home teams have won every game so far and game 6 would continue that trend. Mike Trout finally wakes up with a huge triple. Josh Beckett pitches another gem and it's off to game 7.

So, I have all day to sit at work thinking about the Game 7 I will play when I get home. Sean Manaea on the mound for the Browns, Dolf Luque going for the Beaneaters.

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Old 11-22-2019, 12:42 PM   #77
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I now have Mickey Mantle, Ted Williams and Mike Trout in my league. All are youngsters. I do worry about what's going to happen to Williams when the war years arrive, but I will cross that hurdle when it happens. What blows me away though with each of these guys is their OBP. It's simply amazing how many times these guys get on base. Even in games they fail to get a hit they are usually on base at least once if not multiple times. Blows me away.
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Old 12-01-2019, 05:21 PM   #78
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Old 12-01-2019, 05:49 PM   #79
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Old 12-01-2019, 05:52 PM   #80
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