Historical - Draft by real-life WAR

[Insomniac]

So I had this ridiculous idea the other day about running a historical sim where drafts are re-done based on career WAR for players in that draft class. So the historically best-player (by WAR) in that draft goes first, regardless of what happened in real life.

However, I am struggling to find a year-by-year draft list that includes WAR numbers (or any listing that includes both WAR and draft year). Does anyone have any idea where to find something like this? Would I be able to find it in the OOTP stats files?

[dewelar]

I like this idea. I expect you could create the relevant chart using Baseball Reference's Play Index, but of course that requires a paid membership. I'm also not sure it would be able to include international signings and other undrafted players.

[Snider&Hodges]

Originally Posted by Insomniac

So I had this ridiculous idea the other day about running a historical sim where drafts are re-done based on career WAR for players in that draft class. So the historically best-player (by WAR) in that draft goes first, regardless of what happened in real life.

However, I am struggling to find a year-by-year draft list that includes WAR numbers (or any listing that includes both WAR and draft year). Does anyone have any idea where to find something like this? Would I be able to find it in the OOTP stats files?

Interesting idea! I took a look and I think this is what you're looking for.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/d...rom_type_unk=0


This, for example, is everyone that went round one in 1990. You can then sort by WAR, so Chipper still goes first but Mussina then goes 2nd, Alex Fernandez 3rd, Rondell White 4th, etc.

They don't combine 1st and 2nd round so you'd have to combine it (for instance, Wickman went 2nd round in real life but would need to go like 7th in your draft).That would be a little bit of a pain. Also, don't forget that the draft didn't start until 1965.

[Reed]

Google the following.

MLB debut 1977
Select the baseball reference site
Of course you can select any year you like

You will see all the players that debut in 1977 along with their career WAR value.
You can sort the players by their WAR value.
I think this is what you are asking for.
You will need to check the team’s need or they may end up with a bunch of pitchers when they need a SS or whatever.

[Insomniac]

Originally Posted by Snider&Hodges

Interesting idea! I took a look and I think this is what you're looking for.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/d...rom_type_unk=0


This, for example, is everyone that went round one in 1990. You can then sort by WAR, so Chipper still goes first but Mussina then goes 2nd, Alex Fernandez 3rd, Rondell White 4th, etc.

They don't combine 1st and 2nd round so you'd have to combine it (for instance, Wickman went 2nd round in real life but would need to go like 7th in your draft).That would be a little bit of a pain. Also, don't forget that the draft didn't start until 1965.

Thanks. I stumbled on this one, too, but was hoping for a list that gave me the entire draft instead of round-by-round. I'll have to play with this and see how best to make it work.

And yes, the start of the draft was likely going to be my starting point. There's always a limit, right?

[Insomniac]

Originally Posted by Reed

You will need to check the team’s need or they may end up with a bunch of pitchers when they need a SS or whatever.

I thought about this, but for at least the first run my idea is to stick strictly to draft by WAR. I'll leave trading and free agency open -- if a team ends up with too many SS, they can deal some for the needed arms.

Hell, this may fail miserably. But I thought it was worth a shot.

[Snider&Hodges]

Originally Posted by Insomniac

Thanks. I stumbled on this one, too, but was hoping for a list that gave me the entire draft instead of round-by-round. I'll have to play with this and see how best to make it work.

And yes, the start of the draft was likely going to be my starting point. There's always a limit, right?

Yeah I'm kind of surprised BR doesn't have a 'show all' type of feature, but I guess with the draft being so huge, it would be a bear to look at and be a long load.

[Insomniac]

So I found a complete draft list at Baseball Almanac (https://www.baseball-almanac.com/dra...ft.php?yr=1965), and then went year by year on Baseball Reference to add WAR totals to my worksheet. I sorted by WAR and then prepped for the 1965 draft...and hit my first snag.

The draft following the 1965 season (in-game) seems to be more 1966 draftees with a few 1965 draftees thrown in. For example, here are the first 5 names in my '65 spreadsheet:

Tom Seaver
Nolan Ryan
Johnny Bench
Graig Nettles
Sal Bando

Of those 5, only Seaver and Nettles are in the draft. Ryan, Bench, and Bando are already on team rosters.

I've downloaded and used so many mods through the years, I can't recall if I am using a modified draft/first appearance file or not...but either way, it makes this that much tougher if I have to combine multiple draft lists.

Suggestions welcome...

[Snider&Hodges]

Originally Posted by Insomniac

So I found a complete draft list at Baseball Almanac (https://www.baseball-almanac.com/dra...ft.php?yr=1965), and then went year by year on Baseball Reference to add WAR totals to my worksheet. I sorted by WAR and then prepped for the 1965 draft...and hit my first snag.

The draft following the 1965 season (in-game) seems to be more 1966 draftees with a few 1965 draftees thrown in. For example, here are the first 5 names in my '65 spreadsheet:

Tom Seaver
Nolan Ryan
Johnny Bench
Graig Nettles
Sal Bando

Of those 5, only Seaver and Nettles are in the draft. Ryan, Bench, and Bando are already on team rosters.

I've downloaded and used so many mods through the years, I can't recall if I am using a modified draft/first appearance file or not...but either way, it makes this that much tougher if I have to combine multiple draft lists.

Suggestions welcome...

I was kind of curious too so I looked into it and I know what the problem is. Let's take Sal Bando for example.

The draft in 1965 was June 8 and 9. Bando was drafted by KCA and then played 60 games with their Class A team. So according to the OOTP database, Sal Bando was on the A's already in 1965. That's why he's not in the draft pool.

Same thing happens in-game with Reggie Jackson. If my test file is the same as yours, you can draft Jackson in 1965. This is because after Jackson got drafted in 1966, he played 68 games in the minors that season. So OOTP thinks that since he was a pro in 1966, he must have been in the 1965 draft.

Unfortunately I don't know a solution but hopefully that helps explain why the draft classes are a little weird.

[Insomniac]

Originally Posted by Snider&Hodges

I was kind of curious too so I looked into it and I know what the problem is. Let's take Sal Bando for example.

The draft in 1965 was June 8 and 9. Bando was drafted by KCA and then played 60 games with their Class A team. So according to the OOTP database, Sal Bando was on the A's already in 1965. That's why he's not in the draft pool.

Same thing happens in-game with Reggie Jackson. If my test file is the same as yours, you can draft Jackson in 1965. This is because after Jackson got drafted in 1966, he played 68 games in the minors that season. So OOTP thinks that since he was a pro in 1966, he must have been in the 1965 draft.

Unfortunately I don't know a solution but hopefully that helps explain why the draft classes are a little weird.

Ah, that makes sense. So if I started my sim in '64, the '65 draft might better match real-life. But because I started in '65, guys like Bando that played that year were already assigned to their teams.

Thanks! I'll give it another go!

[Insomniac]

So I gave this another go, starting in 1964. I disabled the draft for '64 (since it didn't exist yet in real life), re-enabling it in the preseason of '65. Unfortunately, I got the same results -- Ryan, Bench, and Bando were already on teams and not in the draft, and some '66 draftees (Reggie, etc.) were in the '65 draft pool.

Could this have happened when minor leagues were set up post-1964? As the teams are being set, would players that played in the minors in '65 have been auto-assigned to their teams?

If that's the case, how far back do you think I would have to go? Or better yet, will I always have this issue, no matter the year? For example, even if I set this up "right" for 1964, will I miss some players that debuted in '65 but were not in that draft pool?

[Snider&Hodges]

Originally Posted by Insomniac

So I gave this another go, starting in 1964. I disabled the draft for '64 (since it didn't exist yet in real life), re-enabling it in the preseason of '65. Unfortunately, I got the same results -- Ryan, Bench, and Bando were already on teams and not in the draft, and some '66 draftees (Reggie, etc.) were in the '65 draft pool.

Could this have happened when minor leagues were set up post-1964? As the teams are being set, would players that played in the minors in '65 have been auto-assigned to their teams?

If that's the case, how far back do you think I would have to go? Or better yet, will I always have this issue, no matter the year? For example, even if I set this up "right" for 1964, will I miss some players that debuted in '65 but were not in that draft pool?

Yeah, if you choose not to run an amateur draft in historic playthroughs, the game will just assign the rookies (that would have been in that year's draft) to their respective first teams.

I'm starting to think you'll have that issue no matter what. No matter how you set up your league, the game will always think that Reggie Jackson should already be playing on opening day '66 and will spawn him accordingly before then.

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by Insomniac

So I had this ridiculous idea the other day about running a historical sim where drafts are re-done based on career WAR for players in that draft class. So the historically best-player (by WAR) in that draft goes first, regardless of what happened in real life.

However, I am struggling to find a year-by-year draft list that includes WAR numbers (or any listing that includes both WAR and draft year). Does anyone have any idea where to find something like this? Would I be able to find it in the OOTP stats files?

I did something like this using fangraphs and BB-Ref. The inaugural draft was a bit of a pain as there were 720 players to be split evenly among 16 teams. This was for a random debut, so that was also a challenge, but I just had to make sure I only took a player's numbers from the point he was coming into the inaugural draft through the end of his career. After the inaugural draft things got easier though. Have a look here and see what you think.

I got through seven seasons, and showed the first 5 rounds of the 45 round inaugural, and the first round of the subsequent amateur drafts. I think my amateur drafts were five rounds, as I played with no minors or waivers. I used fWAR from fangraphs, and bWAR and WAA (Wins Above Average) from BB-Ref, multiplying WAA by 1.8, which is what this guy does for his site, and I enjoy his work so I incorporated it into my method of madness. I then added up the three values to get the number that I used to rank the players.

I used two Spritze players per amateur draft, and sixteen in the inaugural draft. I also used Spritze for players that had no fielding positions, due to very limited or no RL fielding stats, because that database provides positions for players that may not have had any IRL. I've uploaded the spreadsheet that I used to do it. DDV = Default database Draft Value, and SDV = Spritze database Draft Value. I suppose you could also use the minor league database that comes with the game if that suits your fancy. Remember that if you do it this way, you're gonna have to force players onto other teams via Commish Mode when you have positional crowding on one team, and positional scarcity on another to even things up a bit. When you draft from top to bottom, one team might go on a run at one position, but that happens even with the default draft system in the game, so you probably need to do it anyway.

What about this sortable amateur draft list all the way back to 1965? Have fun with this project.

[actionjackson]

For the Spritze only players, I sorted them according to SDV, and assigned a ranking to the player based on that, and then worked around them with the fWAR, bWAR, and WAA totals.