Worst Rating Mistake I have found

revcarte · 07-20-2011, 07:42 AM

1976 Joe Morgan is a 2 (scale of 1-5) which has to be below average. Let me point out that Morgan won the gold glove 5 years in a row (1973, 74, 75, 76, and 77). I know that Strat has him rated as a 1 which is the highest rating possible yet IOOTP has him rated as a 2 which has to be either below average or poor. Would love to hear an explanation for this one.

JayWigley · 07-20-2011, 08:48 AM

Which of his ratings is a 2? (I'm sure if he had a rating for "humility," it would be a 2 or maybe even a 1. . .--sorry, couldn't resist.)

revcarte · 07-20-2011, 08:54 AM

good one!!! that is good. Joe had a big mouth but I have to say that he always backed it up. It was his defensive rating. As I said, he was the gold glove winner for 5 straight years. I am sorry, I am trying to like this game but it keeps driving me crazy. I decide to start a season with my 76 Reds and they lose when the Padres score 5 runs in the bottom of the ninth against Will McEnaney and Rawley Eastwick who could not get anyone out. And Joe Morgan is a 2 as a defensive 2nd baseman.

JayWigley · 07-20-2011, 10:46 AM

I'm playing 1976 right now as the Astros and the Reds (after losing Morgan to a season-ending injury) just swept me in a 3 game set by a combined 12-3 total. . .every batter is a threat. They are playing .700 ball and no one is touching them.

Morgan's OPS when we went out was 1.059, leading league by a wide margin. His defensive rating in my season is a 4 on the 2-8 scale, which is less than average but just barely. His defensive stats are 384 TC, with 175 PO, 205 A, and 4 errors, for a ZR of -5.1 over 75 games.

Husky51 · 07-20-2011, 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JayWigley

His defensive rating in my season is a 4 on the 2-8 scale, which is less than average but just barely. His defensive stats are 384 TC, with 175 PO, 205 A, and 4 errors, for a ZR of -5.1 over 75 games.

I don't know much about intepreting stats, but based on his performance listed above are you OK with how he is rated in IOOTP versus his real life performance?

Sebastian Palkowski · 07-20-2011, 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by revcarte

It was his defensive rating. As I said, he was the gold glove winner for 5 straight years. I am sorry, I am trying to like this game but it keeps driving me crazy. I decide to start a season with my 76 Reds and they lose when the Padres score 5 runs in the bottom of the ninth against Will McEnaney and Rawley Eastwick who could not get anyone out. And Joe Morgan is a 2 as a defensive 2nd baseman.

One game is such a small sample size, you can not make any conclusions from it.

And for the Gold Glove: Derek Jeter won it 5 times, do you think he is a good SS?

tanda · 07-20-2011, 12:09 PM

Baseball Reference has Morgan at negative 5.6 WAR on defense for his career. Defensive WAR is not always the most accurate, but it is an example of evidence that Morgan was overrated defensively.

Also, even the 76 Reds lost 37% of their games, so one game does not prove much.

revcarte · 07-20-2011, 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by palli

One game is such a small sample size, you can not make any conclusions from it.

And for the Gold Glove: Derek Jeter won it 5 times, do you think he is a good SS?

That is a valid point but how can a gold glover be rated 2 on a scale of 1-5??? As to the other persons comment, let's not look at Morgan's career stats but look at the five years he was the best in the NL, and more specifically the 1976 year. I can tell you as a huge Reds fan for many, many years that there was no better second baseman in baseball than Morgan.
But all opinions aside, How can a gold glover, any gold glover, be a 2 on a scale of 1-5?? I know Strat uses many factors in their defensive ratings and he was a "1" on their game for the same year.
I may be a frustrated "newbie" with this game but I do appreciate all the responses.

Sebastian Palkowski · 07-20-2011, 01:52 PM

Let's take a look at the stats (all from baseball references):

In 1976, Joe Morgan had a .981 Fld% at 2B. The league average was .975, so he should be above average in "Infield Error", on a 20er scale he has a 14, nothing wrong for me.

His 2B position rating is a 8 (on a 20er scale, or 2/5 which in both cases means just below average). Let's take a look at his real accomplishments during the 1976 season:

He has a RF/9 of 5.41 (league average at 2B: 5.48). Just below league average. Even better: Rtot (Total Fielding Runs above average) has him as -1 for 1976, so his defense was 1 run below an average 2B player.

I don't think you can call our ratings for him bad (for the 1976 season).

revcarte · 07-20-2011, 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by palli

Let's take a look at the stats (all from baseball references):

In 1976, Joe Morgan had a .981 Fld% at 2B. The league average was .975, so he should be above average in "Infield Error", on a 20er scale he has a 14, nothing wrong for me.

His 2B position rating is a 8 (on a 20er scale, or 2/5 which in both cases means just below average). Let's take a look at his real accomplishments during the 1976 season:

He has a RF/9 of 5.41 (league average at 2B: 5.48). Just below league average. Even better: Rtot (Total Fielding Runs above average) has him as -1 for 1976, so his defense was 1 run below an average 2B player.

I don't think you can call our ratings for him bad (for the 1976 season).

don't understand what any of that means so I cannot argue the point. would love to know who you figure was better at 2b in 1976.

JayWigley · 07-20-2011, 03:26 PM

Using BaseballReference.com, and using the Fielding Runs metric (where Joe Morgan was a -1, meaning he gave up one run more than the average 2B _over the course of all his games_) then these guys were better FIELDERS at 2B than Joe:
Rennie Stennett (+9, so 10 runs better than Joe)
Mike Tyson, Cardinals (+7, so 8 runs better than Joe)
Davey Lopes, Dodgers (+6, so 7 runs better)
Manny Trillo, Cubs, (+3, 4 better)
Rob Andrews, Astros (+6, 7 better)

There are a few more but those are "significantly" better. But you have to understand that it would take about 10 runs to change the outcome of 1 game, so. . .even the BEST in the league by this metric doesn't win one game all by his fielding.

Here is the link to this data:
1976 National League Standard Fielding - Baseball-Reference.com

revcarte · 07-20-2011, 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JayWigley

Using BaseballReference.com, and using the Fielding Runs metric (where Joe Morgan was a -1, meaning he gave up one run more than the average 2B _over the course of all his games_) then these guys were better FIELDERS at 2B than Joe:
Rennie Stennett (+9, so 10 runs better than Joe)
Mike Tyson, Cardinals (+7, so 8 runs better than Joe)
Davey Lopes, Dodgers (+6, so 7 runs better)
Manny Trillo, Cubs, (+3, 4 better)
Rob Andrews, Astros (+6, 7 better)

There are a few more but those are "significantly" better. But you have to understand that it would take about 10 runs to change the outcome of 1 game, so. . .even the BEST in the league by this metric doesn't win one game all by his fielding.

Here is the link to this data:
1976 National League Standard Fielding - Baseball-Reference.com

intersting...that none of those guys ever won a gold glove....

tanda · 07-20-2011, 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by revcarte

intersting...that none of those guys ever won a gold glove....

Rafael Palmeiro also won a gold glove basically playing DH all year. Many gold gloves are won by reputation.

revcarte · 07-20-2011, 10:21 PM

Morgan is in the Hall of Fame and I don't think they put him there by mistake. Nobody else mentioned above is there, including Palmeiro. Diminishing Morgan's defensive accomplishments is akin to you telling me that Johnny Bench was only the 4th best catcher in 1976.

tanda · 07-20-2011, 10:42 PM

The point of Palmeiro is that many mediocre or poor defenders win a gold glove. You are arguing that the gold glove establishes that Morgan was a great defender. Jeter has won five gold gloves and has never been the best defender and won several when well below average.

The iOOTP ratings have Morgan as an average second baseman. Advanced metrics show that he was a below replacement level defender for his career. In 1976, his range factor was slightly below average, meaning he covered less ground than an average second baseman.

revcarte · 07-21-2011, 07:17 AM

People keep bringing up Jeter but I imagine that the player who wins the Gold Glove because of "name" only is an anomoly. I know that Morgan played 133 games in 1976 and only made 13 errors. The other stats I don't understand. I can tell you that as an avid baseball fan from that era, the entire baseball world considered Morgan the best second baseman of that time. The Reds had 4 gold glovers up the middle, Bench, Morgan, Concepcion, and Geronimo. Those 4 players and their defense were a major reason for the team's success.
With all due respect to those who disagree, it is kind of like someone telling me that Pete Rose was a below average hitter.

Husky51 · 07-21-2011, 07:36 AM

With advanced metrics, I see a lot of past players being evaluated in that new context, maybe if they were available in Morgan's day he would have been perceived differently. The SABRE-metrics, much like we do at my work, remove the personalities and emotions and focus strictly on analytics as a predictor of performance. I hear people say, "past behavior is a predictor of future performance."

revcarte · 07-21-2011, 10:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Husky51

With advanced metrics, I see a lot of past players being evaluated in that new context, maybe if they were available in Morgan's day he would have been perceived differently. The SABRE-metrics, much like we do at my work, remove the personalities and emotions and focus strictly on analytics as a predictor of performance. I hear people say, "past behavior is a predictor of future performance."

Thanks. this is all new to me. I know perception is different for different people. I heard people say (especially Cubs announcers etc...) that Ryne Sandberg was the best second baseman they ever saw and it would drive me crazy. They were talking about every aspect...not just defense. I would be like...did you never see Joe??? I grew up in a good time I guess... I got to see Brooks Robinson at third, Bench at Catcher, Pete hitting and hustling, and even got to see Jim Brown running every Sunday when I was younger. I would not take anything for those memories of the Big Red Machine. Hall of Fame players and a Hall of Fame manager and the all time Hit King. (plus a Hall of Fame Radio Announcer).

redsfan17 · 07-21-2011, 11:03 AM

As a Reds fan myself, I can understand where you are coming from. I don't think that Morgan was elected to the Hall of Fame based on his reputation as a fielder though. I think it was the total package and you have to remember that Morgan is considered to be one of the best offensive second basemen in Major League history. Maybe not the best, before anybody says that's what I am saying, but he belongs in the discussion. However with the new stats that have been created, Morgan does not rank well. Its not so much that he won it by reputation, but in the 70s, the stats didn't always tell the true story. Jeter is the example everyone uses because he is a notorious bad fielder but wins Gold Gloves on star power, even though sabermetrics shows his fielding usually is a detriment to a team.

Sebastian Palkowski · 07-21-2011, 05:58 PM

Yeah, I don't want to say that Morgan was a bad defender, stats show that he had pretty good years prior to 1976, but then, again based on stats, not on live observes or awards he got, he went to average and then below average. His ratings in 1976 represent exactly that and we have no other way to rate him.

That said, defense metrics, especially for historical seasons, are maybe weakest of all stats available so I would not make to much out of it.

07-20-2011, 07:42 AM	#1
revcarte Major Leagues Join Date: May 2011 Location: Mt. Dora, FL Posts: 359	Worst Rating Mistake I have found 1976 Joe Morgan is a 2 (scale of 1-5) which has to be below average. Let me point out that Morgan won the gold glove 5 years in a row (1973, 74, 75, 76, and 77). I know that Strat has him rated as a 1 which is the highest rating possible yet IOOTP has him rated as a 2 which has to be either below average or poor. Would love to hear an explanation for this one.

07-20-2011, 08:54 AM	#3
revcarte Major Leagues Join Date: May 2011 Location: Mt. Dora, FL Posts: 359	good good one!!! that is good. Joe had a big mouth but I have to say that he always backed it up. It was his defensive rating. As I said, he was the gold glove winner for 5 straight years. I am sorry, I am trying to like this game but it keeps driving me crazy. I decide to start a season with my 76 Reds and they lose when the Padres score 5 runs in the bottom of the ninth against Will McEnaney and Rawley Eastwick who could not get anyone out. And Joe Morgan is a 2 as a defensive 2nd baseman.

07-20-2011, 01:52 PM	#9
Sebastian Palkowski Developer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Hamburg, Germany Posts: 5,114	Let's take a look at the stats (all from baseball references): In 1976, Joe Morgan had a .981 Fld% at 2B. The league average was .975, so he should be above average in "Infield Error", on a 20er scale he has a 14, nothing wrong for me. His 2B position rating is a 8 (on a 20er scale, or 2/5 which in both cases means just below average). Let's take a look at his real accomplishments during the 1976 season: He has a RF/9 of 5.41 (league average at 2B: 5.48). Just below league average. Even better: Rtot (Total Fielding Runs above average) has him as -1 for 1976, so his defense was 1 run below an average 2B player. I don't think you can call our ratings for him bad (for the 1976 season). __________________ Buy Franchise Hockey Manager 10

07-20-2011, 03:26 PM	#11
JayWigley Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: East Tennessee Posts: 129	Using BaseballReference.com, and using the Fielding Runs metric (where Joe Morgan was a -1, meaning he gave up one run more than the average 2B _over the course of all his games_) then these guys were better FIELDERS at 2B than Joe: Rennie Stennett (+9, so 10 runs better than Joe) Mike Tyson, Cardinals (+7, so 8 runs better than Joe) Davey Lopes, Dodgers (+6, so 7 runs better) Manny Trillo, Cubs, (+3, 4 better) Rob Andrews, Astros (+6, 7 better) There are a few more but those are "significantly" better. But you have to understand that it would take about 10 runs to change the outcome of 1 game, so. . .even the BEST in the league by this metric doesn't win one game all by his fielding. Here is the link to this data: 1976 National League Standard Fielding - Baseball-Reference.com Last edited by JayWigley; 07-20-2011 at 03:27 PM. Reason: typo

07-20-2011, 10:21 PM	#14
revcarte Major Leagues Join Date: May 2011 Location: Mt. Dora, FL Posts: 359	Hall Morgan is in the Hall of Fame and I don't think they put him there by mistake. Nobody else mentioned above is there, including Palmeiro. Diminishing Morgan's defensive accomplishments is akin to you telling me that Johnny Bench was only the 4th best catcher in 1976.

07-20-2011, 08:48 AM	#2
JayWigley Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: East Tennessee Posts: 129	Which of his ratings is a 2? (I'm sure if he had a rating for "humility," it would be a 2 or maybe even a 1. . .--sorry, couldn't resist.)

07-20-2011, 10:46 AM	#4
JayWigley Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: East Tennessee Posts: 129	I'm playing 1976 right now as the Astros and the Reds (after losing Morgan to a season-ending injury) just swept me in a 3 game set by a combined 12-3 total. . .every batter is a threat. They are playing .700 ball and no one is touching them. Morgan's OPS when we went out was 1.059, leading league by a wide margin. His defensive rating in my season is a 4 on the 2-8 scale, which is less than average but just barely. His defensive stats are 384 TC, with 175 PO, 205 A, and 4 errors, for a ZR of -5.1 over 75 games.

07-20-2011, 12:09 PM	#7
tanda Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 26	Baseball Reference has Morgan at negative 5.6 WAR on defense for his career. Defensive WAR is not always the most accurate, but it is an example of evidence that Morgan was overrated defensively. Also, even the 76 Reds lost 37% of their games, so one game does not prove much.

07-20-2011, 10:42 PM	#15
tanda Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 26	The point of Palmeiro is that many mediocre or poor defenders win a gold glove. You are arguing that the gold glove establishes that Morgan was a great defender. Jeter has won five gold gloves and has never been the best defender and won several when well below average. The iOOTP ratings have Morgan as an average second baseman. Advanced metrics show that he was a below replacement level defender for his career. In 1976, his range factor was slightly below average, meaning he covered less ground than an average second baseman.

07-21-2011, 07:17 AM	#16
revcarte Major Leagues Join Date: May 2011 Location: Mt. Dora, FL Posts: 359	but... People keep bringing up Jeter but I imagine that the player who wins the Gold Glove because of "name" only is an anomoly. I know that Morgan played 133 games in 1976 and only made 13 errors. The other stats I don't understand. I can tell you that as an avid baseball fan from that era, the entire baseball world considered Morgan the best second baseman of that time. The Reds had 4 gold glovers up the middle, Bench, Morgan, Concepcion, and Geronimo. Those 4 players and their defense were a major reason for the team's success. With all due respect to those who disagree, it is kind of like someone telling me that Pete Rose was a below average hitter.

07-21-2011, 07:36 AM	#17
Husky51 Minors (Double A) Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 198	With advanced metrics, I see a lot of past players being evaluated in that new context, maybe if they were available in Morgan's day he would have been perceived differently. The SABRE-metrics, much like we do at my work, remove the personalities and emotions and focus strictly on analytics as a predictor of performance. I hear people say, "past behavior is a predictor of future performance."

07-21-2011, 11:03 AM	#19
redsfan17 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 29	As a Reds fan myself, I can understand where you are coming from. I don't think that Morgan was elected to the Hall of Fame based on his reputation as a fielder though. I think it was the total package and you have to remember that Morgan is considered to be one of the best offensive second basemen in Major League history. Maybe not the best, before anybody says that's what I am saying, but he belongs in the discussion. However with the new stats that have been created, Morgan does not rank well. Its not so much that he won it by reputation, but in the 70s, the stats didn't always tell the true story. Jeter is the example everyone uses because he is a notorious bad fielder but wins Gold Gloves on star power, even though sabermetrics shows his fielding usually is a detriment to a team.

07-21-2011, 05:58 PM	#20
Sebastian Palkowski Developer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Hamburg, Germany Posts: 5,114	Yeah, I don't want to say that Morgan was a bad defender, stats show that he had pretty good years prior to 1976, but then, again based on stats, not on live observes or awards he got, he went to average and then below average. His ratings in 1976 represent exactly that and we have no other way to rate him. That said, defense metrics, especially for historical seasons, are maybe weakest of all stats available so I would not make to much out of it. __________________ Buy Franchise Hockey Manager 10