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Old 01-09-2019, 09:35 AM   #1
max venerabel
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Auctionhouse Slowdown?

Just curious if others think the auction house is slowing down lately?

Wonder if players have started to settle on rosters they like and are not as often in the market for upgrades. Or, perhaps the Christmas money is drying up.



Haven't seen prices drop yet, but seems like there are many less bids on good cards.
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Old 01-09-2019, 01:42 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by max venerabel View Post
Haven't seen prices drop yet, but seems like there are many less bids on good cards.
I've seen the same thing, although it does seem to me prices are slowly decreasing for the Live cards and the less unique historical cards. I've seen some decent bargains lately, but they seem sort of hit and miss.

It will be interesting to see what happens to some of the more expensive diamond cards over the next few weeks.
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Old 01-09-2019, 03:57 PM   #3
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It is bound to happen. Those willing to spend money on points pretty much have their teams set by this stage. Those who are relying on earned points are getting to the stage where is takes several days or even a week or more to afford a substantial upgrade.
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Old 01-09-2019, 08:30 PM   #4
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Less people improving their team might mean less packs being opened, too. Less demand, but maybe less supply.

There is a Don Mattingly on sale in the market that ends in one week. That's a slow auction for you. I'd hate to be the person who puts a bid on that without realizing that the PP will be locked up until next week (or until another poor sap bids on it).
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Old 01-09-2019, 10:59 PM   #5
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Prices are definitely dropping on all but the elite cards and once those get a solid baseline, I think they'll rise. I just don't think there's been enough sales on them so far, and the sales we've had have been crazy.

People are trying to use those crazy high sales (some warranted, some not) as anchor points for future sales and it doesn't seem to be working on the majority of cards. Ohtani's perfect comes to mind. It was showing 115k as it's last 5 about a week ago, and there were 3 of them up, lowest with a Buy it Now of around 75k and there weren't any takers (at least no takers for quite awhile). 99 Kershaw had been holding steady between 12-13k for the past week, there are two up now with Buy it Now's of 11k or less and the last 5 claims to be 9.9k, but I've never seen one sale that low.

I don't have much faith in the last 5's being accurate...unless someone's botting the game and buying up the underpriced cards as soon as they hit the market, because I've noticed quite a few with last 5 figures below what I've ever seen the card offered at. And I check the AH waaaaaay more often than I should be.
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Old 01-10-2019, 01:12 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by traylor45 View Post
I don't have much faith in the last 5's being accurate...
I've been taking them with a grain of salt ever since I noticed that the last 5 did not change after I won a bid and it didn't change. I also question whether or not it includes cards that are bought via the BIN feature. And as you mentioned, there are some cards where the low volume means that the Last 5 may not accurately reflect the current collective mindset of the card's value.

It is a useful tool still, but it also has its limitations.
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Old 01-10-2019, 01:23 PM   #7
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Remember, last 5 was changed recently to display the median value from the last 5. So if the last 5 sales on a player are 5k, 6k, 6k, 6k, 8k, and you buy for 8k, then the median will stay at 6k no matter which of the other numbers gets dropped from the list.

Showing the median definitely helps avoid the skew of one price (if the last 5 sales are 1k, 2k, 2k, 3k, 10k, median is a better mark of "current price"). But it definitely can be "wrong" if a player just happens to have a bunch of cheap (or expensive) sales near each other.
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Old 01-10-2019, 05:16 PM   #8
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I was not aware of the shift to the median. This explains a lot of what I have seen, and makes a lot of sense in general.

I stand by my previous assertion that the Last 5 is limited, but this new information decreases those limitations in my opinion.
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Old 01-10-2019, 07:49 PM   #9
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Thanks Matt, I was unaware of that change as well.
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Old 01-11-2019, 12:23 AM   #10
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It does feel like there is less supply in the Auction House and also that high end cards are dropping. For a solid 7-10 days, it was tough to see any historical 100 card for less than $80K. I saw a few in the 60's today and the Tom Seaver for $55K. You just wouldn't have seen that last week.
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Old 01-11-2019, 01:34 AM   #11
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3 Perfect Ohtanis are closing soon with no bids at about 30K below his Last 5.

Perfect Bonds is 50K below with no bids.

Perfect George Brett is currently 100K below with 7 hours left and no bids.

There are several others tanking fast. The Perfect market is drying up.
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Old 01-11-2019, 08:36 AM   #12
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When the whales have all the cards they need, there's nobody left to snatch up the priciest cards!
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Old 01-11-2019, 06:51 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atabakin View Post
When the whales have all the cards they need, there's nobody left to snatch up the priciest cards!
It's not drying up, like the other guy said, but this is what's happening. The guys that put money in are rounding out their teams, so now the prices are dropping to a more normal equilibrium that everyone can afford. Like I said in my longer post on this thread...they'll hit that equilibrium, then the "meta" cards will start climbing back up, while anything less than perfect continues to become less and less valuable. Exact same way non-consumable items work in pretty much every MMO Auction House out there.
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Old 01-12-2019, 09:12 AM   #14
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I'm seeing fewer worthwhile non-Perfect cards in the AH. As someone still putting teams together, it's tough having to only rely in packs, especially for theme teams. There are very few good non-Diamond '90s cards available, for instance.
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Old 01-12-2019, 09:44 AM   #15
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The whales are collecting good cards on their reserve rosters. If you have a team in perfect, take a look around. This is one reason why the high diamond market is short on supply. So the whales don't yet have all of the cards that they need, because you have to have ALL of the good cards on your combined rosters to get "whale cred".
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Old 01-12-2019, 09:48 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Orcin View Post
The whales are collecting good cards on their reserve rosters. If you have a team in perfect, take a look around. This is one reason why the high diamond market is short on supply. So the whales don't yet have all of the cards that they need, because you have to have ALL of the good cards on your combined rosters to get "whale cred".
Yeah, the actual whale in my division is playing an all-diamond team and has kept his perfects on reserve all season. Eckersly, Doc Gooden, Ruth, Wagner, etc...

He's still destroying us, but Treinen and Diaz are the only 2 live cards he's using, so that team is stacked.
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Old 01-17-2019, 09:17 PM   #17
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Due to this slowdown, it would be wonderful if everyone would join me in listing cards for longer periods of time. Since less is listed overall, it's hard to actually find that card you want in the Auction House (even if it's not expensive or relatively rare).

And yes, I'm posting this because the card I've been waiting for finally got listed at the end of the week, after I lost patience and spent my money for it on packs.
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Old 01-17-2019, 11:30 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by BoofBonser26 View Post
Due to this slowdown, it would be wonderful if everyone would join me in listing cards for longer periods of time. Since less is listed overall, it's hard to actually find that card you want in the Auction House (even if it's not expensive or relatively rare).

And yes, I'm posting this because the card I've been waiting for finally got listed at the end of the week, after I lost patience and spent my money for it on packs.
Just please don't due his crap with 2+ day auctions with no BIN or an unreasonably high one. I don't want to tie up my PP for days for an auction I might not win.

This Fred Lynn auction is just dumb and it's been running for a couple days already. It's pretty much either pay 50K now, tie up your PP for days hoping to win, or set a reminder to come check in again later in the week.
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Old 01-17-2019, 11:48 PM   #19
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On a related note, it looks like people are starting to come to the realization that the 100 on that Tom Seaver card is ridiculous. His price is plummeting. One is about to No Bid at 45K when the last 5 is at 64K. That 100 Koufax needs to start dropping from 130K too, as it's no better than 24K deGrom with that low Movement. You could buy a whole rotation of pitchers better than Koufax at that cost.

EDIT: Did it. You are welcome, person no longer wasting that money on Koufax. As a Dodgers fan, I hate to say it, but the card is overrated, not him.

deGrom 24000
Sale 23000
Randy (97) 31000
Pedro (96) 25000
Smoltz (96) 24000
TOTAL 127000

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Old 01-18-2019, 09:52 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DonkeyKongSr View Post
Just please don't due his crap with 2+ day auctions with no BIN or an unreasonably high one. I don't want to tie up my PP for days for an auction I might not win.

This Fred Lynn auction is just dumb and it's been running for a couple days already. It's pretty much either pay 50K now, tie up your PP for days hoping to win, or set a reminder to come check in again later in the week.
I'm not seeing the issue with that one. Last 5 was 45k. He started it at 10k with a 50k BIN.

I've put multiple higher priced (not 50k, but 10-15k+)cards up with a list price several K below the Last 5 price and BIN about 5k over. That makes perfect sense.. If someone's impatient, make them pay a premium...if no one's impatient, then I'll let the auction go long enough that anyone that might be interested has a chance to get in on it.
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