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Old 01-07-2019, 01:49 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sharpk23 View Post
Where would you put 97 Randy Johnson and 96 Mike Scott in the rankings? I just got moved up to Perfect today, but my rotation is those 2, Sale, Syndergaard and Severino so I think I will be getting lit up. I'm at work until 8pm tonight so I think I will be in for a very poor record when I get home tonight. LOL
All the Randy Johnson cards are good. The 97 OVR one is Top 15, I think. The Scott card is good as well. Somewhere in the low 20s.
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Old 01-07-2019, 01:50 PM   #22
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Where do you have Spud rated? That's the next card I really want to have.

If for no other reason than his father went by "Bud" and I've called my son either "Spud" or "Bud" throughout his growth through his childhood.
What are the ratings on that card? I saw one up for auction last week but I forgot to write it down. I remember thinking it was really good (and really expensive).
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Old 01-07-2019, 02:22 PM   #23
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I have Blanton at #24 of the SP cards I've seen so far. I'm missing a few that are prb better (100 Maddux, 95 Harvey, etc.) and didn't do all the diamond SPs in the 90-92 range. Some of those might be better, but prb not.
Blanton's price is tanking, I think because he's so hit or miss. He's going for 15,000 right now and was maybe 25,000 last week.

Oh, have you seen any Dolf Luque's yet? I have the only one I've ever seen. Never seen him in the Auction House. Until his middling Perfect season last week, I would have placed him Top 5 of players I've seen. His career stats back it up.

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Old 01-07-2019, 02:29 PM   #24
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Blanton's price is tanking, I think because he's so hit or miss. He's going for 15,000 right now and was maybe 25,000 last week.

Oh, have you seen any Dolf Luque's yet? I have the only one I've ever seen. Never seen him in the Auction House. Until his middling Perfect season last week, I would have placed him Top 5 of players I've seen. His career stats back it up.
I have Dolf in my database since his ratings are up on the community Google sheet. He's currently 31st on my list. Good stuff, decent movement, below-average control.
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Old 01-07-2019, 02:30 PM   #25
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Is this database available for all to see??? Just curious.
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Old 01-07-2019, 02:33 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by ASURay View Post
I have Dolf in my database since his ratings are up on the community Google sheet. He's currently 31st on my list. Good stuff, decent movement, below-average control.
Here's my Dolf stats. As you can see, insanely good before last season. 1st, 2nd and 3rd in Cy Young + 2 Top 3 MVP finishes.
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Old 01-07-2019, 02:51 PM   #27
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Is this database available for all to see??? Just curious.
I suspect it is proprietary information.

Nice of ASURay to share what he has so far. It sounds like he has done a nice job of analysis.
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Old 01-07-2019, 02:54 PM   #28
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I have 97 Randy Johnson at #12 on my list. He is my highest-rated pitcher and he was great for me in diamond level last season.

I have Mike Scott #27 which is not too far off from ASURay.
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Old 01-07-2019, 02:57 PM   #29
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Is this database available for all to see??? Just curious.
It's not in a very legible format at the moment. I kind of put it together haphazardly. My current formula for predicted_FIP is:

FIP_p = 9.468 - .022*STUFF - .033*MOV - .027*CON

The intercept is biased since I used data mostly from Bronze/Silver/Gold leagues so the resulting FIP estimates are likely too low. Right now I just use the model for comparing SP to one another rather than for predicting their actual performance. The estimates might be pretty good if you're in a lower league, though. I'll update things after this week maybe. Note that this a very simple regression model. Nothing fancy. It assumes the effect of the ratings is linear (e.g., the difference between a 50 and 60 rating for MOV is the same as the difference between a 90 and 100 rating). The R^2 for the model is ~.62, so good but not great.

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Old 01-07-2019, 03:02 PM   #30
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I like the fact that you value both movement and control high.

Do you think individual pitch quality is important?
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Old 01-07-2019, 03:03 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by ASURay View Post
I have Dolf in my database since his ratings are up on the community Google sheet. He's currently 31st on my list. Good stuff, decent movement, below-average control.
Boy am I out of my league with you guys. Spreadsheets and list. 😨
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Old 01-07-2019, 03:26 PM   #32
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It's not in a very legible format at the moment. I kind of put it together haphazardly. My current formula for predicted_FIP is:

FIP_p = 9.468 - .022*STUFF - .033*MOV - .027*CON

The intercept is biased since I used data mostly from Bronze/Silver/Gold leagues so the resulting FIP estimates are likely too low. Right now I just use the model for comparing SP to one another rather than for predicting their actual performance. The estimates might be pretty good if you're in a lower league, though. I'll update things after this week maybe. Note that this a very simple regression model. Nothing fancy. It assumes the effect of the ratings is linear (e.g., the difference between a 50 and 60 rating for MOV is the same as the difference between a 90 and 100 rating). The R^2 for the model is ~.62, so good but not great.
I just went though and fit the model using data from every SP in my current Perfect league that has >=30 career GS at the Perfect level. Unfortunately, this only gave me a sample size of N=89. The new formula is:

FIP_p = 10.18 - .016*STUFF - .043*MOV - .024*CON

Interesting that CON became more effective while Stuff lost effectiveness as compared to fitting the model using data from lower leagues. The estimates almost seem too high now. THe 91 OVR Vida Blue card, for example has a predicted FIP of 4.80. Anyways, the Top 10 using this new model is:

1) 100 Pedro
2) 93 Maddux
3) 96 Brown
4) 97 Hubbell
5) 96 Greinke
6) 94 Maddux
7) 96 Young
8) 97 Pedro
9) 100 Clemens
10) 97 Newhouser

Last edited by ASURay; 01-07-2019 at 03:48 PM.
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Old 01-07-2019, 03:29 PM   #33
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Boy am I out of my league with you guys. Spreadsheets and list. 😨
I have a PhD in statistics and work as a research methodologist when I'm not playing OOTP/PT, so this is kind of my thing. That said, I doubt it gives me much of an advantage. At the end of the day, PP is king.
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Old 01-07-2019, 03:30 PM   #34
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Quote:
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I like the fact that you value both movement and control high.

Do you think individual pitch quality is important?
I haven't considered that at all. We could use some machine learning techniques to try and integrate all the info (velocity, individual pitch ratings, GB/FB tendencies, arm slot, etc.) but, in the end we'd be limited by the relatively small amount of available data.
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Old 01-07-2019, 03:39 PM   #35
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Quote:
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I have 97 Randy Johnson at #12 on my list. He is my highest-rated pitcher and he was great for me in diamond level last season.

I have Mike Scott #27 which is not too far off from ASURay.
I have the 97 Randy at #20 on the new list, but I value Stuff less than you do so that's not surprising. That said, I'd take that card. My current rotation is:

96 Kevin Brown (#3 new list / #6 old list)
94 Roger Clemens (#15 / #17)
96 John Smoltz (#20 / #18)
100 Chris Sale (#25 / #20)
96 Pedro (#29 / #25)

All of the cards that would help me (so, cards in the top 25 or so) are very expensive. The only sub-95 cards that would improve my rotation are the 93 Alexander (#18), 93 Maddux (#2), 94 Maddux (#6), 94 Blanton (#13), and 93 Blyleven (#22). Those are all 30K+, no? The 92 Spahn (#26) is actually a bit better than the 96 Pedro. I have that card as my LR out of the 'pen.
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Old 01-07-2019, 03:49 PM   #36
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I have the 97 Randy at #20 on the new list, but I value Stuff less than you do so that's not surprising. That said, I'd take that card. My current rotation is:

96 Kevin Brown (#3 new list / #6 old list)
94 Roger Clemens (#15 / #17)
96 John Smoltz (#20 / #18)
100 Chris Sale (#25 / #20)
96 Pedro (#29 / #25)

All of the cards that would help me (so, cards in the top 25 or so) are very expensive. The only sub-95 cards that would improve my rotation are the 93 Alexander (#18), 93 Maddux (#2), 94 Maddux (#6), 94 Blanton (#13), and 93 Blyleven (#22). Those are all 30K+, no? The 92 Spahn (#26) is actually a bit better than the 96 Pedro. I have that card as my LR out of the 'pen.
As I mentioned earlier, Blanton's Last 5 was 15K when I saw it this morning.
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Old 01-07-2019, 03:50 PM   #37
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As I mentioned earlier, Blanton's Last 5 was 15K when I saw it this morning.
Yeah. I just bought him for my F2P team that consists only of dead players.
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Old 01-07-2019, 04:02 PM   #38
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Yeah. I just bought him for my F2P team that consists only of dead players.
How much do the 96 OVR Greinke, 97 OVR Newhouser, and 96 OVR Cy Young go for? I don't think I've ever seen Newhouser at auction.
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Old 01-07-2019, 04:06 PM   #39
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Any opinions of good starters in the under 10K range that are better than Barker, Dierker, Syndergaard, Corbin, etc?
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Old 01-07-2019, 04:13 PM   #40
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Spud Chandler's ratings come in at STU:84 MOV:82 CON:81 which calculates at 2.727 or something thereabouts. How does that slot in with your other calculations, ASURay?
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