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Old 12-05-2019, 09:33 PM   #1
allenciox
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Result from opening 1000+ packs in Perfect Team

Ok, I have now collected statistics on opening over 1000 Perfect Team Packs. I have collected detailed information on the value of each of the cards (assuming all are sold or quick-sold) and thought I would post summaries here.

Total Packs opened that were recorded on spreadsheet: 1009.

...comprising 13 Diamond Packs, 79 gold packs, and 917 standard packs. An even 600 were from tournaments across my three teams, but I have been collecting stats since mid-summer --- it's just that before tournaments, most of my packs were challenge mode packs or collection packs.

Code:
			avg	std	gold	diamond
	exp	actual	value	pack	pack	pack
iron	3644	3674	12.8	46	46	46
bronze	1926	1871	38.0	76	38	38
silver	252	262	285	71	71	71
gold	180	188	2133	213	2346	213
diamond	46.6	54	10214	340	340	10554
perfect	5.05	5	40000	200	200	200
total	6054	6054				
			value	947.1	3041.9	11123
The first column is the total number of cards expected of each of the types, based on the various packs opened. The second column contains the actual number drawn across those decks. The third column contains the average value obtained for each of the cards in that category. I can detail in a subsequent post how these values were derived. The fourth column contains the value in PP points for each of the expected total of cards for a std pack, gold pack, and diamond pack based on the values in column 3, and the values at the bottom are the average totals for each pack with that expected distribution (expected pct. drawn used here instead of actual pct. drawn).

The key there is that a standard pack was worth 947 pp on average. Note that the mediian return for a standard pack was much, much less than that, < 100. However, it is the rare pack that has a big draw that skews the results so much. According to this analysis, buying a standard pack with 1000 pp results in only about a 5% loss overall.

A gold pack, by this analysis is worth about 3042 PP, so buying a gold pack with 5000 PP results in about 39% loss overall, while a diamond pack bought with 15,000 PP would result in about 11,123 PP in value for a loss of about 25%.

It is possible that my values for diamond cards and perfect cards are low. All five perfects drawn were LIVE perfects, so I have only estimated the value at 40000 (my actual value averaged only 26000 on perfect cards due to this, even though one was perfect Trout).

The most valuable card netted across these 1009 decks was 99 Musial, which resulted in 63,909 after the 10% tax on selling.

One more note: the return on the iron cards are primarily due to drawing 48 unsung iron heroes across the 1009 decks (although the occasional live in-demand-for collection players like Maton helped too). As far as I know, they haven't published the % chance that a deck will contain an unsung iron, but that would put the probability right around 4.5%, That would suggest they are more likely than golds but less likely than silvers to be drawn.
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Old 12-06-2019, 01:33 AM   #2
steamrollers
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Wow 600 packs from tournaments. And I get thrilled if I am able to grind out maybe a pack or 2.
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Old 12-06-2019, 12:05 PM   #3
Thundercrack
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Wow 600 packs from tournaments. And I get thrilled if I am able to grind out maybe a pack or 2.
Was going to say the same thing. How is that even possible? Are you playing tournaments 24/7?
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Old 12-06-2019, 12:15 PM   #4
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He said that is across 3 teams so sounds pretty reasonable if you are able to enter throughout the day. I usually earn 10-15 daily by constantly entering the 16 and 32 man queues whenever I have a spot open, I think tournaments have been out almost a month now so that would put me around 250-300 for my one team.
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Old 12-06-2019, 12:46 PM   #5
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Come for the pack content information, stay for the pack grinding realizations
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Old 12-06-2019, 05:05 PM   #6
allenciox
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Yeah, this is across three teams, and I mostly run the 32-team tournaments, checking in every couple of hours. I sometimes run 16-team when the 32-team tournies aren't going to fill soon. I also run dailies unless they are full > 4 to 8 hours before start time. I never play any of the 8-team DOD.

Still, my three teams are not particularly high on the list of tourney winners. The Energizer Bunnies are in 12th place with 67 wins (nowhere near the leader's 255 wins), and the Caspers and Southpaws are tied for 19th place with 57 wins each.

Of course, some of the teams that are higher than me might be spamming 8-team tournies, which wouldn't be awarding packs.

I generally open about 30 to 40 packs each evening accumulated over 24 hours between the three teams. That is the most time-consuming part, as opening the packs, recording the results, and putting players up on auction house take up about an hour and a half each evening.
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Old 12-06-2019, 09:41 PM   #7
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Yeah, this is across three teams, and I mostly run the 32-team tournaments, checking in every couple of hours. I sometimes run 16-team when the 32-team tournies aren't going to fill soon. I also run dailies unless they are full > 4 to 8 hours before start time. I never play any of the 8-team DOD.

Still, my three teams are not particularly high on the list of tourney winners. The Energizer Bunnies are in 12th place with 67 wins (nowhere near the leader's 255 wins), and the Caspers and Southpaws are tied for 19th place with 57 wins each.

Of course, some of the teams that are higher than me might be spamming 8-team tournies, which wouldn't be awarding packs.

I generally open about 30 to 40 packs each evening accumulated over 24 hours between the three teams. That is the most time-consuming part, as opening the packs, recording the results, and putting players up on auction house take up about an hour and a half each evening.

30-40 packs each evening would be awesome. I do enter a lot and try to check in from time to time but if a day goes flat out awesome I am maybe looking at 10-15 packs combined over 3 teams in a 24 hour period if I am constantly entering tourneys. Your teams are pretty high on the all time win lists. Obviously that one that is at 255 is doing a lot of 8 teams. My silver team is basically loaded although the lower level tourneys come down to luck a lot of the time which has been in very short supply whether it be tourney luck or pack luck. Oddly enough I seem to do really well in the 1625 nonlive in terms of how often I am getting rewards which is odd since I have a pretty weak pitching staff for those.
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Old 12-06-2019, 09:49 PM   #8
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30-40 packs each evening would be awesome.
Not really, my time is worth money. That sounds like a job I'd never take. I used to grind Challenge packs and realized I was wasting my limited time on earth doing something boring as hell. If I absolutely have to have packs, buying them is way more cost effective, for me anyway. If I was broke, I'd have to consider what I was giving up but I admit that could change the equation.

If a retired guy wants to spend all day dicking around with tourneys that's perfectly fine. Anyone else for that matter, go for it. I don't tell other people how to have fun as long as it's legal, for instance if someone thought shooting people was fun I wouldn't condone it...
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Old 12-06-2019, 11:04 PM   #9
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It's not like it takes active management. I haven't changed my bronze or silver roster in weeks, as long as you can open up the game its just a few clicks every hour or so
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Old 12-06-2019, 11:34 PM   #10
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It's not like it takes active management. I haven't changed my bronze or silver roster in weeks, as long as you can open up the game its just a few clicks every hour or so
I'm not trying to criticize, just saying with all the things I do in life, clicking anything every hour would make me want to draw a paycheck for it or have the payoff be better than something that goes adios every two years. I do love the game and have spent a fair amount of money but tourney grinding sounds like a root canal.
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Old 12-07-2019, 03:04 PM   #11
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Still, my three teams are not particularly high on the list of tourney winners. The Energizer Bunnies are in 12th place with 67 wins (nowhere near the leader's 255 wins), and the Caspers and Southpaws are tied for 19th place with 57 wins each.

Of course, some of the teams that are higher than me might be spamming 8-team tournies, which wouldn't be awarding packs.
Where would I find the list of tourney winners?
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Old 12-09-2019, 08:37 AM   #12
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Where would I find the list of tourney winners?

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Old 12-09-2019, 08:50 AM   #13
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That is a super useless stat since it counts an 8 man DoD the same as a 64 man daily.
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Old 12-09-2019, 10:38 AM   #14
Markus Heinsohn
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That is a super useless stat since it counts an 8 man DoD the same as a 64 man daily.
It's still a tournament victory total. Nobody said it had to be super useful.
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Old 12-09-2019, 10:39 AM   #15
dkgo
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It fits in with most baseball stats then

Technically accurate yet doesn't really tell you anything on its own
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Old 12-10-2019, 05:07 AM   #16
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That is a super useless stat since it counts an 8 man DoD the same as a 64 man daily.
Can confirm this, every win in 8 man DoD. Been working at home for a couple of weeks and spamming the tourneys. Made the mistake of trying to run a pack only team with PZ and this was just a run at a last pack opening session before deciding to leave this cursed account alone! I'm a bit embarrassed to be anywhere near the top of any leader board...
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