Players bought in AH vs. Players bought in packs

[TecatePete]

Hey guys, I'm relatively new to the game (first year purchasing it, only a couple weeks in, obviously), but it seems to me that the players I got in my opening packs are performing better than the players I buy in the AH, who are actually rated far higher (Dexter Fowler [69] hitting better than Vlad Guerrero Jr. [83], being one example of many).

It's pretty far into the season, and I looked into potential confounding factors (my stadium effects, as well as the rest of the league; handedness of pitchers I often face, etc.) but the bottom line seems to just be: Players from packs doing better than players bought in AH.

Considering I think buying from the AH is far superior to buying from packs (a theme I notice many agree with on these boards), I find that interesting to say the least.

I hope this hasn't been discussed in depth already, I tried going back to previous years on the boards and couldn't find anything.

Appreciate any feedback y'all have. Thanks

[dkgo]

A complete myth and confirmation bias.

Dont use overall rating as gospel either.

[TecatePete]

Hah, I did wonder if it was confirmation bias, but if you say "complete myth" does that mean it has been discussed and others have thought so as well?

And very good point on ratings not being gospel

Originally Posted by dkgo

A complete myth and confirmation bias.

Dont use overall rating as gospel either.

[HemBear]

There have been a bunch of theories on things like AH players "slumping" for a while, etc. All have been debunked. It's just how the game plays out.

[TecatePete]

Cool, thanks for catching me up! Appreciate it, chaps

Originally Posted by HemBear

There have been a bunch of theories on things like AH players "slumping" for a while, etc. All have been debunked. It's just how the game plays out.

[dkgo]

Yep. Baseball just has a ton of random noise in player production. Perfect team is actually a great way to see just how much. Look at career stats from previous versions, the same player in the same lineup at the same level has put up between 2 war and 9 war for me.

[BigRed75]

I have Rhys Hoskins in three of my teams. This season he hit anywhere from 7 to 36 home runs...

[Mikecouil]

My pack pulled 94 OVR Bryce Harper hit .220 in the roughly 2 1/2 months left to the regular season in rookie league that he played.

Pack pulled 94 Blake Snell struck out 15 batters in 6 innings in his first start and then got touched up in his next 4 stars, losing all of them.

Those are the highest rated players on my roster......

[ubernoob]

Originally Posted by Mikecouil

My pack pulled 94 OVR Bryce Harper hit .220 in the roughly 2 1/2 months left to the regular season in rookie league that he played.

Pack pulled 94 Blake Snell struck out 15 batters in 6 innings in his first start and then got touched up in his next 4 stars, losing all of them.

Those are the highest rated players on my roster......

That will happen. That Harper card only has 60 contact. .220 would be a bit low, but he could be going against very good pitching. Harper isn't going to ever hit for a huge average (well, he did have one outlier year) but provides above average defense and and decent OPS. He will strike out a ton, which will be exacerbated by the fact he will face better pitching in perfect team than in Live tournaments or actual MLB sims.