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OOTP 20 - Historical Simulations Discuss historical simulations and their results in this forum.

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Old 03-23-2019, 01:55 PM   #1
MickDaQuick
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Missed playoffs despite +18 pythag advantage

First simulated season with ootp20 was super unlucky. My Padres had a pythag record of 100-62 yet lost division to Braves (pythag 82-80). Has this ever happened before?
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Old 03-24-2019, 09:35 AM   #2
Pirates
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The PYT is a flawed calculation. Teams that can play small ball, may not have a great PYT.

The most important stats in your game is wins.
Then look at what really killed you, 1 run games. Atlanta beat you by 12 games.
In my opinion, Atlanta was the better team.
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Old 03-24-2019, 10:34 AM   #3
Bill Veeck
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MickDaQuick View Post
First simulated season with ootp20 was super unlucky. My Padres had a pythag record of 100-62 yet lost division to Braves (pythag 82-80). Has this ever happened before?
IRL there is usually a 20-game difference between the most wins above pythag and the lost losses but that's among 30 clubs. It's unusual to see it in a division - but it does happen.

Just another indication of the huge part timing and luck have in baseball as in everything else in life. We always underestimate the role these play especially with very limited data points.
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Old 03-24-2019, 03:51 PM   #4
MickDaQuick
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Thanks Bill Veeck - In real life last year the diff between top/bottom in this luck measurement was 22 wins, 21 wins the year before. Cool to know.
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Old 03-29-2019, 01:21 PM   #5
Painmantle
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Pyth is a Mirage, It's like saying "If we had Won more games we would have had a better record" They are all meaningless to me but it is Possibly the most useless of all Sabermetric Stats.
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