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Old 11-05-2018, 12:59 PM   #1
Orcin
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Perfect DiMaggio

Joe... not Dom. He is priced at 60K PP. I am thinking that no player is worth 60 packs. What say you?
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Old 11-05-2018, 01:03 PM   #2
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Joe... not Dom. He is priced at 60K PP. I am thinking that no player is worth 60 packs. What say you?
Tend to agree. I don't think that's a serious listing though (no none will have 60k PP yet for one thing), probably just a bit of showing off going on. And understandably so, with a Perfect DiMaggio
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Old 11-05-2018, 01:13 PM   #3
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Joe... not Dom. He is priced at 60K PP. I am thinking that no player is worth 60 packs. What say you?
I did not say anything. I just wept.
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Old 11-05-2018, 01:17 PM   #4
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Joe... not Dom. He is priced at 60K PP. I am thinking that no player is worth 60 packs. What say you?
I think yes, it is. Eventually, it's gonna take a lot more than 60 packs to be able to upgrade your team. It's not like you can spend points on anything other than players.
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Old 11-05-2018, 01:25 PM   #5
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A historical perfect, once the payment system is live, will probably never sell as cheaply as 60K.

Perfect odds: 1/1000, and historical odds are even slimmer (I think 1/3?) on top of that. That's ~160+ packs per Perfect pull (1000/6 cards per pack), even more for a historical.

I know that's just rough back-of-napkin type math, but I think it's pretty clear that any historical (or maybe even Live) perfect card will be instantly snapped up if the 'Buy It Now' is 50-60K PP. I expect some to sell for several hundred thousand PP eventually, if not more. We'll see what inflation looks like over time, but even at the outset I think 50-60K will be considered a steal for cards like DiMaggio, Ruth, Ohtani Future Legend (assuming it's Perfect, since I never saw it even in the closed beta with unlimited packs), maybe even Trout and other Live cards, etc.
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Old 11-05-2018, 01:48 PM   #6
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How much does 1000PP cost? If it is US $1, then there is no way someone will pay $300-400 for a digital card that has no tangible benefit other than showing off for a matter of a few months.
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Old 11-05-2018, 01:55 PM   #7
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How much does 1000PP cost? If it is US $1, then there is no way someone will pay $300-400 for a digital card that has no tangible benefit other than showing off for a matter of a few months.
Umm, the idea is that you don't necessarily have to spend USD on the game.
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Old 11-05-2018, 02:02 PM   #8
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Umm, the idea is that you don't necessarily have to spend USD on the game.
You expect to have 300-400K PP floating around without spending money?
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Old 11-05-2018, 02:35 PM   #9
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You expect to have 300-400K PP floating around without spending money?
Depends on how many months you want to save up!
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Old 11-05-2018, 02:42 PM   #10
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How much does 1000PP cost? If it is US $1, then there is no way someone will pay $300-400 for a digital card that has no tangible benefit other than showing off for a matter of a few months.
Yes, 1000 PP will be $1.

Oh, and there actually are people who will pay that sort of money for cards, believe me.
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Old 11-05-2018, 02:48 PM   #11
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Yes, 1000 PP will be $1.

Oh, and there actually are people who will pay that sort of money for cards, believe me.

We will see.
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Old 11-05-2018, 03:03 PM   #12
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How much does 1000PP cost? If it is US $1, then there is no way someone will pay $300-400 for a digital card that has no tangible benefit other than showing off for a matter of a few months.
1) It has been my job to look at microtransaction data for various game companies, and I can say that people will absolutely spend that much and more for even temporary advantages in a game. It's scary how much disposable income some people have, and rich gamers spend on their hobbies just like anyone else. Also, some will be attached to a particular version - maybe they'll still be playing OOTP 21 PT for several years after 22 comes out instead of upgrading annually.

2) Because R > G in this game mode, you don't need to spend $300 to get 300,000 PP if you have a smaller initial investment to pair with some patience and savvy. There may be discounts for bulk PP purchases, for one thing (think the devs have mentioned that). For another, you can probably spend ~$25-100 on PP, then use the initial 'investment' to flip things in the AH and/or build a stacked enough team to generate PP consistently. Eventually, even a F2P player will be able to (with enough work) have enough PP to bid on a lower-level Perfect card now and again (probably not DiMaggio or Ruth), if they save up long enough and consistently make smart sales and purchases.
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Old 11-05-2018, 03:12 PM   #13
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A historical perfect, once the payment system is live, will probably never sell as cheaply as 60K.

Perfect odds: 1/1000, and historical odds are even slimmer (I think 1/3?) on top of that. That's ~160+ packs per Perfect pull (1000/6 cards per pack), even more for a historical.

I know that's just rough back-of-napkin type math, but I think it's pretty clear that any historical (or maybe even Live) perfect card will be instantly snapped up if the 'Buy It Now' is 50-60K PP. I expect some to sell for several hundred thousand PP eventually, if not more. We'll see what inflation looks like over time, but even at the outset I think 50-60K will be considered a steal for cards like DiMaggio, Ruth, Ohtani Future Legend (assuming it's Perfect, since I never saw it even in the closed beta with unlimited packs), maybe even Trout and other Live cards, etc.
Remember that one of the 6 cards is guaranteed to be a Bronze (or a Gold) so that's one that can't be a perfect.

The odd of a given card not being perfect is 99.9%, which means the breakeven point of having had a 50% chance of having drawn a perfect is 693 cards (log(.5)/log(.999)), which means it would take 139 packs to have a 50% chance of having drawn at least one perfect.

Eww.
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Old 11-05-2018, 03:40 PM   #14
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I honestly think that this is a non-issue, because there's no way anyone will be able to sell the card. It's like trying to trade Mike Trout in real life. Nobody can afford to give the Angels what they deserve for him, and the Angels aren't going to settle for less than what they deserve. Besides, once you have a perfect, there's no point in selling it, as all getting points can do is...hopefully find more diamonds and perfects.
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Old 11-05-2018, 03:50 PM   #15
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I honestly think that this is a non-issue, because there's no way anyone will be able to sell the card. It's like trying to trade Mike Trout in real life. Nobody can afford to give the Angels what they deserve for him, and the Angels aren't going to settle for less than what they deserve. Besides, once you have a perfect, there's no point in selling it, as all getting points can do is...hopefully find more diamonds and perfects.
I mean, a Perfect Card is great in any case, but a Perfect Card and a Bronze are not necessarily better than two Diamond cards or a Diamond and a Gold, depending on the cards.

Perfect Cards aren't artificially inflated, they're really just the "best" cards, but the difference between a Perfect Card and a 96-99 Diamond for instance, will likely be minimal to non-existent in some cases. The Diamond card might even be better. In other cases it might be clear that the Perfect Card is better, but it depends on what specific cards you're talking about.

So there's definitely a possible advantage to be gained to selling Perfect Cards off and using them as fodder to open more packs and get more shots at multiple other great cards. Of course, for that to work, you have to be lucky in what you pull after you sell the Perfect Card, so there's definitely a risk involved in going that route...
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Old 11-05-2018, 04:29 PM   #16
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1) It has been my job to look at microtransaction data for various game companies, and I can say that people will absolutely spend that much and more for even temporary advantages in a game. It's scary how much disposable income some people have, and rich gamers spend on their hobbies just like anyone else. Also, some will be attached to a particular version - maybe they'll still be playing OOTP 21 PT for several years after 22 comes out instead of upgrading annually.

Who am I to argue with a pro, so I will take your word for this. Markus obviously agrees and he is betting on it... literally.


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2) Because R > G in this game mode, you don't need to spend $300 to get 300,000 PP if you have a smaller initial investment to pair with some patience and savvy. There may be discounts for bulk PP purchases, for one thing (think the devs have mentioned that). For another, you can probably spend ~$25-100 on PP, then use the initial 'investment' to flip things in the AH and/or build a stacked enough team to generate PP consistently. Eventually, even a F2P player will be able to (with enough work) have enough PP to bid on a lower-level Perfect card now and again (probably not DiMaggio or Ruth), if they save up long enough and consistently make smart sales and purchases.
What does R > G mean?

I still maintain that a player would be better off putting 60K points into 60 regular packs or 12 gold packs than one card, assuming that the player is trying to win and not attempting to accomplish some collection goal. The yield from 60 regular packs is expected to be at least 3 diamonds and 9 golds, and 12 gold packs would yield 12 gold cards for sure. The impact from those 12+ cards would be more than any one single card on any team below the highest level. At the very least, you could sell those cards, buy the perfect, and still have points left to spend elsewhere. I concede that if you already have a team of all diamonds, then that one perfect card might be better than 12 cards to sell.
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Old 11-05-2018, 04:53 PM   #17
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What does R > G mean?
'Return rate of capital is greater than the overall growth rate of the economy,' i.e. 'the rich get richer,' because owning capital of any kind (patents, buildings, companies, employees' contracts, information, etc.) and renting it out (or sitting on it while it appreciates in value faster than the economy grows) outpaces earnings from other sources of income (i.e. labor and services, non-durable/consumable goods, etc.)

In PT, the only capital is the cards, and having better ones means you should (with a big enough sample over time) get more PP than the average person in the economy, thus making your comparably richer.

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I still maintain that a player would be better off putting 60K points into 60 regular packs or 12 gold packs than one card, assuming that the player is trying to win and not attempting to accomplish some collection goal. The yield from 60 regular packs is expected to be at least 3 diamonds and 9 golds, and 12 gold packs would yield 12 gold cards for sure. The impact from those 12+ cards would be more than any one single card on any team below the highest level. At the very least, you could sell those cards, buy the perfect, and still have points left to spend elsewhere. I concede that if you already have a team of all diamonds, then that one perfect card might be better than 12 cards to sell.
I tend to agree with you, and it'll be interesting to see if people with Perfect cards auction them off for whatever someone will pay, or set an 'absurdly' high price that only one person will pay, repeating 48-hour auctions with the same opening bid until they get the only bid they need, regardless of how long it takes... Regardless, the PT 'capital' upon which you get a greater return, when choosing between 'dozens of packs worth of cards' and one Perfect card, is pretty clear until your whole team is Diamond/Perfect. Theres an argument for keeping an ideal strategic fit if you pull it once your team is all/mostly Gold+, since packs will have somewhat diminishing returns for you by then, but it's a tricky call then and probably depends on the card and team.

I think we'll see a lot of high-level cards hit the market in the early days, as there'll be a pack opening frenzy and people will feel exactly as you do sell it and open dozens more packs to build a team from. If they've already bought several hundred packs, they might sit on it until they see what they open.

Speaking of pack opening frenzies, a note for the devs: PT is potentially super streamable for whales, they'll have plenty to do once they're working the auction house a lot. This will be even more true in 20 and onwards as tournaments, etc. get added. Probably some good marketing opportunities in there if you can get some big twitch streamers into it. Some of them have got to be baseball fans looking for a change of gaming pace...

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Old 11-06-2018, 05:26 AM   #18
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Speaking of pack opening frenzies, a note for the devs: PT is potentially super streamable for whales, they'll have plenty to do once they're working the auction house a lot. This will be even more true in 20 and onwards as tournaments, etc. get added. Probably some good marketing opportunities in there if you can get some big twitch streamers into it. Some of them have got to be baseball fans looking for a change of gaming pace...
We're aware of this of course.... once PT officially launches, we'll be all over Twitch and YouTube
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Old 11-06-2018, 10:19 AM   #19
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putting perfect cards up for auction repeatedly, hopeful that it sells eventually, does have a small opportunity cost of not being used in the lineup

some people may be ok with that, others may not
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Old 11-10-2018, 11:34 AM   #20
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We will see.
never seen the pack of fools that inhabit TSB. These people whine on reddit about dropping $2000 with nothing to show for it. It'll happen here too. Odds are at least one of us is dull witted enough to do it...<<smugly grinning>>not me, of course. I only invest in Coca-Cola, IBM, and AT&T!
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