Are the White Sox crazy??

[jaysdailydose]

Originally Posted by TLB1975

A couple comments. In my experience, I find that the scouting reports in OOTP are an easily translatable code for what a players ratings are. How many variations of text are there for overall and each category? I'm not advocating turning scouting off too because it is designed in a stats only experience to be the replacement for my human eyes. But I find it's just to easy to determine the ratings through it.

To your comment about valuing elite pitching over elite hitting, I would tend to agree with that. If this is the mid 90's, "steroid era" then most definitely. But let's remember it's a trade for established elite hitting for potential elite pitching. And also, the OP said offense is down in his league so I would argue elite hitting becomes even more valuable.

I wouldn't classify this guy as an "elite" hitter, nor would I say he's "established" after one season. He had one quality season. Somehow, in that one quality season, he was an MVP candidate without even reaching 90 RBI or a .900 OPS.

I've said it quite a few times, but part of the problem is that we are valuing this kid like he's a 10-win player, when he's a 5-win player. The AI isn't valuing him as an elite player because he isn't.

[David Watts]

I hate to always run to this trade, but look what the Tigers got for Doug Fister. Ray might be the only one that amounts to a pile of corn.

[TLB1975]

Originally Posted by jaysdailydose

And since you want to put it on stats, there's also the season before this breakout where he had five extra base hits in 79 trips to the plate. What if he's more THAT guy then the guy who just broke out? (Which is what the scouting report seems to be saying, because his ratings indicate a peaked out player who isn't all that great.)


I can't believe this has inspired nearly 6 pages of discussion, to be real honest.

Are you really telling me I should look hard at his 79 AB partial year over his 580+AB year? Andrew Mccutchen had 89 AB's this March/April with 4 extra base hits. What should I infer from that? I know it's not apples to apples but I hope you see my point.

I just find it hard to say that Meyers 2017 season was a fluke without seeing his ratings and that the top 3 hitter in the AL playing at league minimum should be traded for one SP prospect.

[jaysdailydose]

Originally Posted by TLB1975

Are you really telling me I should look hard at his 79 AB partial year over his 580+AB year? Andrew Mccutchen had 89 AB's this March/April with 4 extra base hits. What should I infer from that? I know it's not apples to apples but I hope you see my point.

I just find it hard to say that Meyers 2017 season was a fluke without seeing his ratings and that the top 3 hitter in the AL playing at league minimum should be traded for one SP prospect.

Cutch has quite a more established track record.

I'm not saying you should look hard at anything. I'm saying look hard at EVERYTHING. You don't just throw those 80 PA'S out with the baby and the bathwater either...especially when the only scouting report we have says this guy is a shade above average as a HR threat and average guy and he HAS to be an average guy because he's not ever going to walk.

Even in a stats only environment with only verbal scouting reports you would get some of this info.

They are trading a good player for a possibly elite one and a bat to make up the production. You've told me you had no love for the bat the Sox acquired, I actually think that kid looked pretty decent and then had a season wiped out for whatever reason. It's hard to throw THAT baby out with the water because he was almost .800 OPS in his first action. Not a huge drop when the guy you are stumping so hard for didn't get to .900...

[ThePretender]

Originally Posted by TLB1975

I'll post the stats later but look at the 1B statistics of the two World Series teams last year (KC,SF). Nowhere near as good as Meyers. You can look at other playoff and/or winning teams and you'll see no trend that says in order to be successful you need a 1B with high avg, power, and high walk rate. So why would I throw away a guy with Meyers stats for an if/come SP prospect

The stats compared to other 1B are irrelevant since I don't think he maintains that level of production. He had a great year, and I'm not disputing that. I'm saying he won't be great going forward unless you expect a significant improvement in ISO, or you expect him to maintain a 320 BA.

I never said you needed an elite 1B to win a WS. I said you're putting yourself at a disadvantage by using him when better 1B are available. Brandon Belt certainly had a poor 2014, but he's a great 1B (especially when you realize he's a legitimate threat in both 2013 and 2015). Eric Hosmer wasn't great during the regular season, but boy was he good in the playoffs.

There's no player that you "need" to win in the playoffs. You can win with any style. But you're giving yourself a better opportunity to win with a 1B who can hit for ba/obp/slugging as opposed to one who does 2 out of 3.

[TLB1975]

Originally Posted by jaysdailydose

I've said it quite a few times, but part of the problem is that we are valuing this kid like he's a 10-win player, when he's a 5-win player. The AI isn't valuing him as an elite player because he isn't.

Yes he is not a 10 war player. I looked at Meyers rankings compared to 2014 actual ML stats for all players with over 500AB's (249 players.

War - 23rd overall (top 10%)
Avg - 6th overall (top 3%)
Hr's - 16th overall (top 8%)
Slg % - 7th overall (top 3 %)
SB's - 22nd overall (top 9%)
runs - 8th overall (top 4%)
Rbi's - 27th overall (top 12%)
K Rate - 9th overall (top 5%)

Is that elite? Debatable. But next tier below elite, definitely

[Bugsquasher]

Originally Posted by TLB1975

What is amazing about him beyond the ratings?

Exaclty ratings a alone tells me this is a good trade. The 1B Traded looks like he's reached his potential, will be a normal player for his team(s). But for 1B Positions you want something better than that.

Now, the SP has potential, amazing potential in control and chanegup, and the Pointdexter guy has amazing fielding skills and can possibly be a backup fielder. We need to know what their roster looked like, who was the one who asked for the trade, what kind of reputation the other players on the team had, what kind market and fans loyalty is at. What other prospects were knocking on the door. It could be that they had to make decision between keeping a veteran who was maybe on DL for the year or something,

Ratings alone tell me this is a good trade. I've played OOTP Baseball signficantly and regularly have 4-5 star players at each position. The first baseman is overated. Plus when was the trade? Maybe there was a Free Agent they wanted to get who was much better at 1B? And decided hey nows a good time to let him go. It's very complex and there's probably a good reason that OP missed somewhere.

[TonyJ]

Originally Posted by TLB1975

Yes he is not a 10 war player. I looked at Meyers rankings compared to 2014 actual ML stats for all players with over 500AB's (249 players.

War - 23rd overall (top 10%)
Avg - 6th overall (top 3%)
Hr's - 16th overall (top 8%)
Slg % - 7th overall (top 3 %)
SB's - 22nd overall (top 9%)
runs - 8th overall (top 4%)
Rbi's - 27th overall (top 12%)
K Rate - 9th overall (top 5%)

Is that elite? Debatable. But next tier below elite, definitely

But this is the point that this entire thing comes back to. Will he keep that up? If you base it just on stats it's possible, depending upon what his track record was in the minors. If add scouting in to the evaluation and they are saying there is no way he keeps it up then he probably won't. Again, if you want to have the game make evaluations just based on stats then do so and trades like this won't happen. If you throw in scouting (ratings), then they will. I'm not sure what the point of continuing the conversation is at this point.

[TonyJ]

dola,

Hall of Famer Joe Charboneau put up a fantastic .289/.358/.488 slash line with a 129 OPS+ in his rookie season. Never heard of him? That's because he isn't a Hall of Famer, he hit .210 in 147 PA's his second season, hit .214 in 63 PA's the year after that and never played in the majors again. It happens.

[TLB1975]

Originally Posted by Bugsquasher

Exaclty ratings a alone tells me this is a good trade. The 1B Traded looks like he's reached his potential, will be a normal player for his team(s). But for 1B Positions you want something better than that.

Now, the SP has potential, amazing potential in control and chanegup, and the Pointdexter guy has amazing fielding skills and can possibly be a backup fielder. We need to know what their roster looked like, who was the one who asked for the trade, what kind of reputation the other players on the team had, what kind market and fans loyalty is at. What other prospects were knocking on the door. It could be that they had to make decision between keeping a veteran who was maybe on DL for the year or something,

Ratings alone tell me this is a good trade. I've played OOTP Baseball signficantly and regularly have 4-5 star players at each position. The first baseman is overated. Plus when was the trade? Maybe there was a Free Agent they wanted to get who was much better at 1B? And decided hey nows a good time to let him go. It's very complex and there's probably a good reason that OP missed somewhere.

Thank you for making my point!!

[TLB1975]

Originally Posted by TonyJ

dola,

Hall of Famer Joe Charboneau put up a fantastic .289/.358/.488 slash line with a 129 OPS+ in his rookie season. Never heard of him? That's because he isn't a Hall of Famer, he hit .210 in 147 PA's his second season, hit .214 in 63 PA's the year after that and never played in the majors again. It happens.

Not sure I get your point with Charboneau other than to show an example of a ROTY who didn't live up to his potential. I would argue that Meyers number in this era are better than Charboneau's in 1980. FYI, Charboneau's war in 1980 was 2.4 vs 5.0 for Meyers. And again, Meyers finished third in the MVP vote in the OP's save.

[TonyJ]

Originally Posted by TLB1975

Not sure I get your point with Charboneau other than to show an example of a ROTY who didn't live up to his potential. I would argue that Meyers number in this era are better than Charboneau's in 1980. FYI, Charboneau's war in 1980 was 2.4 vs 5.0 for Meyers. And again, Meyers finished third in the MVP vote in the OP's save.

The point is that he had a great rookie season but his production wasn't sustainable. The game thinks Meyer's production isn't sustainable because it is taking scouting in to account rather than just numbers.

[Habsfan18]

What have I done?

I guess I just get attached to the players in my game world and was surprised at the trade so I posted it. I didn't intend to start a big debate.

I bet everyone is anticipating an update. Maybe I'll sim a full season within the next few days.

[jaysdailydose]

Originally Posted by Habsfan18

What have I done?

I guess I just get attached to the players in my game world and was surprised at the trade so I posted it. I didn't intend to start a big debate.

I bet everyone is anticipating an update. Maybe I'll sim a full season within the next few days.

It would be appreciated... and you shouldn't be worried about having started what has actually been a very quality debate.

Would you mind posting the written scouting reports for the principals, though? Quite a few of us are curious. Thanks in advance, sir!

[jaysdailydose]

Did some research...

The 1976 Co-Rookies of the Year were Butch Metzger of the San Diego Padres and Pat Zachry of the Cincinnati Reds.

They were *both* traded during the 1977 season.

[Habsfan18]

Originally Posted by jaysdailydose

It would be appreciated... and you shouldn't be worried about having started what has actually been a very quality debate.

Would you mind posting the written scouting reports for the principals, though? Quite a few of us are curious. Thanks in advance, sir!

No problem. Although I don't personally put much stock into the OSA scouting reports, although everyone is different.

1. Meyers
2. Brady
3. Poindexter

[jaysdailydose]

What does your scout say, though?

[Habsfan18]

Originally Posted by jaysdailydose

What does your scout say, though?

I play this game in spectator mode, kind of as a league commissioner/fan. I just watch the league unfold rather than work for a specific team.

[jaysdailydose]

Especially seeing that Poindexter is actually an extremely competent corner outfielder... interesting that the OSA projects Meyers as a .270 hitter going forward.

[TonyJ]

Yeah, based on those scouting reports I do that trade every single time and dance a jig afterwards. A .270 hitter with good but not elite power and no plate discipline is not going to be an MVP candidate ever again and that pitcher looks tasty as hell.