Optimum time to sign player extensions

[Acuna Matata]

Would love a bit of feedback on when people feel is the best time to sign a good young player to a long term deal.
Ive got my head around the minor league service period, and when arbitration and free agency kicks in, but i still find myself waiting too long to offer a long term deal which then hits me in the pocket long term.
Would i be right in thinking that to offer a player a contract before arbritration begins is a good option as id expect they would be grateful of the financial/career security it would give them.
What seems to make me shy away from offering an early deal is the up and down years that young players have, which can turn a stud into a bust or vice versa. I tend to feel more secure when they have two consistent major league seasons under their belt so i know what i can expect over the long term.
I am finding as a result that those players i want to sign due to their high quality play are demanding the earth to sign contracts as they have completely proven their worth.
Bearing in mind one of no one’s comments that AA and AAA will give you a fairly accurate idea of their talent then i may have to rely on short term trials instead in either spring training or september to gage whether they’re worth a deal or not.

[battists]

Well, just like in your other thread that I just replied to, there's a great deal of risk/reward here.

The earlier you sign a potential long-term piece, the better the odds you will have him at reasonable cost for a good length. But the greater the risk that he was a "flash in the pan" and doesn't become a consistent starter.

The later you wait to sign a player, the more likely you will have a good understanding of his likely performance, but the greater the risk that you will have to pay top dollar for his services.

Personally, I tend to try to sign players to longer-term deals before arbitration kicks in if they...

1. Have performed consistently at all levels. (They don't have to be stars at all levels, but guys who hit .300 one year and .180 the next make me nervous.)
2. Have really good intangibles (leadership, work ethic, intelligence).
3. Have positional flexibility (e.g. can play multiple positions decently)
4. Don't have glaring weaknesses
5. I'm more likely to sign players who are strong defensively early, because at least I can USE that player in some capacity even if he doesn't hit as expected. Nothing worse than being saddled with a ridiculous contract for a hitter who doesn't hit, and who can't be used as a defensive replacement or pinch runner!
6. I'm more likely to sign C, SS, and CF early as well, because they are (IMO) the most important and hardest to find.
7. When I'm on the fence about whether or not to sign a player early, I will look at potential rating. If my coach and OOTP both feel positively about the player, that may help my decision. I hate it when my coach and OOTP disagree. (I don't usually look at potential too much though, because in my opinion, if the player is at a point where I am considering signing him long-term, he should be showing that potential on the field. Players with really high potential who aren't performing on the field I will definitely not sign early.

Players who fall outside of these criteria, I may tend to sign a little later, like into their arbitration years, unless they are huge outliers. For example, I may accept a high strikeout rate / low BA for a guy who has plus plus power potential and has shown it in his career.

Then again, I'm NOT great at this game, I've just been around for a long time, so definitely look for other opinions!

[Acuna Matata]

Big thanks for your thoughts here Battists.
Im starting to screengrab vaious ideas and insights so i can refer back to them for inspiration.
Much appreciated

[battists]

Originally Posted by Acuna Matata

Big thanks for your thoughts here Battists.
Im starting to screengrab vaious ideas and insights so i can refer back to them for inspiration.
Much appreciated

I've been playing this game on and off for like 15 years and have NEVER won a championship in OOTP, so take what I say with a BIG grain of salt!!

[NoOne]

all the due dilligence and more that battists said and alluded to...

is it a player high quality? good value or at least near? age isn't a problem?

it really does come down to efficient spending of money. if it's a good investment, you should almost always sign them long-term, when they are interested. somtimes you can wait a year, sometimes they might not be interested "next year," etc...

if you can afford overspending and have a window that fits, you should also sign those guys with an eye to get out of it when needed.

good contracts are easy to trade, if necessary. hopefully it's an older, previous long-term extension that isn't too old or too cumbersome of a contract to unload... smart spending required.

you don't get as much back, but it is way easier to find partners early in offseason as opposed to nearing opening day when they budgets are spent. if needed, you can trade for a salary dump with 1year heavery contracts coming in return, and less good stuff overall in return too, if at all. you can avoid that and just get prospects or a needed replacement etc.

learn how many 'big' 'medium' or whatever sized contracts your market size and max revenue can afford. if you know you can only afford 4-5 max contract type guys and you sign a sixth (likely high # of young players that will soon be expensive), you know you have to trade someone before it becomes a problem. (apply that to situations with mix of high/medium end guys etc)

you may differ, but i focus on maxing most # of high-end guys that are durable. talent distribution is a pryamid... that means the further you go out from average, the talent increases at greater incremental rates. a very small market may be a good context to deviate from maxing # high-end guys. even there, if you can get a HoF bomber, you should pay them, even if it's a large contract.

i'd look up threads on maximizing revenues... you can and should escalate ticket prices as much as possible in any year you are winning and expect to win next year... and just because it will inherently increase your budget-size the next year, even if owner has some control.