Can't Get 4 Star Guy to Produce in Bigs

SeattlePikes · 01-31-2013, 02:41 PM

I've had a remarkable amount of trouble getting a 4-star (scouted) guy to produce at the big league level.

He's a career .297/.377/.535 in AAA - including a 1.028 OPS this year, but every time he comes up to fill-in in the bigs he goes hitless. This year he was .085/.143/.183 in limited ABs.

I'm wondering whether I can gamble on him starting in the Bigs next year or need to find some FA options.

Player Report for #56 Tomás Velázquez

GMLoophole · 01-31-2013, 03:45 PM

If you have scouting on, your scout may be wrong. Check the OSA scouting stats and see if they're way terrible in comparison.

You didnt' post all the stats, either, but you say "limited" playing time. It's possible he's just had a bad and small sample size worth of AB.

But my money is on "your scout is wrong".

Lukas Berger · 02-01-2013, 01:09 PM

Only 79 MLB at bats. That's just too small a sample size to mean anything at all. Even a hall of famer could do that poorly in so few at bats.

You won't be able to tell his true ability at the MLB level until he's gotten a full season or two of appearances under his belt.

fhomess · 02-01-2013, 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lukasberger

Only 79 MLB at bats. That's just too small a sample size to mean anything at all. Even a hall of famer could do that poorly in so few at bats.

You won't be able to tell his true ability at the MLB level until he's gotten a full season or two of appearances under his belt.

He's got 71 AB's this year, 426 for his career over the past three seasons with 2 different organizations. He has never produced well in the bigs, and to be honest, I'm not that impressed with his minor league track record either. A 148 OPS+ in AA at 24 years old doesn't excite me, so he's really just got this one year to go on in that regard.

It's possible that he's just gone through some tough times each time he was up, but there are enough PA's there I'd be worried. Personally, I think you need to give him extended major league playing time to find out for sure, or trade him and let someone else worry about it.

TribeFanInNC · 02-01-2013, 03:56 PM

I don't think he's ever going to hit except maybe in short stretches. I think the best case scenario is that he provides 0 batting WAR, but provides a couple WAR with baserunning and defense. Refer to that partial year where he provided negative VORP but 1.5 WAR. That's OK if he's hitting 8th or 9th. That's not OK if he's hitting second.

That said, I just picked up 2 guys in Rule 5 in my league kinda like that (more power, less defense, similar age and experience) to compete for my RF job this spring. So you wouldn't be completely crazy to give him a shot.

Scottiedog · 02-01-2013, 07:00 PM

He does have a low work ethic which would concern me some, if I was you.
All the same though he would provide good defense in the outfield for you. I would give him as many at bats as possible to see if he develops. Worst case, he could be a valuable fourth outfielder.

Charlie Hough · 02-02-2013, 02:34 AM

It's simple. He's a strikeout machine and his inability to hit with two strikes and avoid K's is killing his aversge.

And here's a novel idea: he may be a classic 4-A player. MLB history is filled with cases of players who could crush the ball in AAA but couldn't hit in the majors. Maybe he just can't hit a major league curveball or good slider.

Pro-rated for 600 at-bats, he would strike out over 190 times.

D-BacksJosh · 02-02-2013, 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlie Hough

Pro-rated for 600 at-bats, he would strike out over 190 times.

Reminds me of Mark Reynolds who had 3 straight years with over 200 strikeouts, setting the MLB record for strikeouts in a single season with 223 in 2009. However, in that year he also had 44 HR's, something your Tomas Velazquez doesn't seem to be doing.

What I would do is either start him the entire year to see how he does with a full season of AB's in hopes that he can improve his contact, or trade him and make him someone else's problem like fhomess has suggested.

01-31-2013, 02:41 PM	#1
SeattlePikes Bat Boy Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 11	Can't Get 4 Star Guy to Produce in Bigs I've had a remarkable amount of trouble getting a 4-star (scouted) guy to produce at the big league level. He's a career .297/.377/.535 in AAA - including a 1.028 OPS this year, but every time he comes up to fill-in in the bigs he goes hitless. This year he was .085/.143/.183 in limited ABs. I'm wondering whether I can gamble on him starting in the Bigs next year or need to find some FA options. Player Report for #56 Tomás Velázquez __________________ Follow Pikes baseball all year round right here! Seattle · https://seattlepikes.wordpress.com/ Seattle Pikes Est. 2014 *2014, 2015, & 2018 CL WEST CHAMPIONS*

02-01-2013, 07:00 PM	#6
Scottiedog All Star Reserve Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: In a van...down by the river! Posts: 745	He does have a low work ethic which would concern me some, if I was you. All the same though he would provide good defense in the outfield for you. I would give him as many at bats as possible to see if he develops. Worst case, he could be a valuable fourth outfielder. __________________ President Ronald Wilson Reagan "Some people live an entire lifetime and wonder if they have ever made a difference in the world, but the Marines don't have that problem. " ******** Giovani della Casa "I cannot divine how it happens that the man who knows the least is the most argumentative”**

02-02-2013, 02:34 AM	#7
Charlie Hough Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 3,625	It's simple. He's a strikeout machine and his inability to hit with two strikes and avoid K's is killing his aversge. And here's a novel idea: he may be a classic 4-A player. MLB history is filled with cases of players who could crush the ball in AAA but couldn't hit in the majors. Maybe he just can't hit a major league curveball or good slider. Pro-rated for 600 at-bats, he would strike out over 190 times. Last edited by Charlie Hough; 02-02-2013 at 02:35 AM.

01-31-2013, 03:45 PM	#2
GMLoophole All Star Reserve Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 863	If you have scouting on, your scout may be wrong. Check the OSA scouting stats and see if they're way terrible in comparison. You didnt' post all the stats, either, but you say "limited" playing time. It's possible he's just had a bad and small sample size worth of AB. But my money is on "your scout is wrong".

02-01-2013, 01:09 PM	#3
Lukas Berger OOTP Developments Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Nice, Côte d'Azur, France Posts: 19,896	Only 79 MLB at bats. That's just too small a sample size to mean anything at all. Even a hall of famer could do that poorly in so few at bats. You won't be able to tell his true ability at the MLB level until he's gotten a full season or two of appearances under his belt.

02-01-2013, 03:56 PM	#5
TribeFanInNC Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 4,019	I don't think he's ever going to hit except maybe in short stretches. I think the best case scenario is that he provides 0 batting WAR, but provides a couple WAR with baserunning and defense. Refer to that partial year where he provided negative VORP but 1.5 WAR. That's OK if he's hitting 8th or 9th. That's not OK if he's hitting second. That said, I just picked up 2 guys in Rule 5 in my league kinda like that (more power, less defense, similar age and experience) to compete for my RF job this spring. So you wouldn't be completely crazy to give him a shot.