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Old 11-24-2019, 10:24 AM   #1
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Longest a Team has gone without winning a title??

After all these years of simming seasons, I don't think I've ever seen anything like this. I've just past year 2125, started in 2019, and the Boston Mud Hens have yet to win a championship after 107 seasons!!!

The crazy thing is that they have made the playoffs 48 times and reached the championship series 11 times. The Mud Hens consistently have a top 5 budget, their market size is huge, fan loyalty is good, so it has never been a financial issue. They just seem cursed.

The playoff field is not even that large with just 4 teams per sub-league getting in each season. I really don't get it, but I am so fascinated by this. Long live the Mud Hens!!
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Old 11-24-2019, 10:28 AM   #2
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Old 11-24-2019, 10:44 AM   #3
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I love this thread. What curse, do you think, is upon the Mud Hens? Billy goat, Bambino, Black Sox?

The Most Haunted and Whimsical Baseball Curses

Note: That's an old article. Many of those curses have been broken since. There could yet be hope for the Mud Hens if you can find what about them has outraged the gods of baseball!
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Old 11-24-2019, 11:08 AM   #4
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I love this thread. What curse, do you think, is upon the Mud Hens? Billy goat, Bambino, Black Sox?

The Most Haunted and Whimsical Baseball Curses

Note: That's an old article. Many of those curses have been broken since. There could yet be hope for the Mud Hens if you can find what about them has outraged the gods of baseball!
Haha, i don't know, maybe some guy tried once to bring in his pet chicken and was denied because it was too dirty. Guy said, but this is a "Mud Hens" game!!
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Old 11-24-2019, 11:39 AM   #5
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I got a few more seasons simmed and the Hens went into a rebuilding phase before winning a tiebreaker game in 2133 to advance to their 49th postseason. They suffered heartbreak again by losing in the first round after having been up 3 games to 1. Maybe there really is something to this curse!
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Old 11-24-2019, 11:55 AM   #6
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They did it! After their 116th season and 50th try in the postseason, the Boston Mud Hens are world champions!

I've never seen such an unexplainable streak
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Old 11-24-2019, 01:02 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by jpeters1734 View Post
They did it! After their 116th season and 50th try in the postseason, the Boston Mud Hens are world champions!

I've never seen such an unexplainable streak
It's only "unexplainable" if you don't understand probabilities.

You said they reached the championship series 11 times without winning. So, they then won 1 out of 12 times they reached the CS.

Assuming they were something like to 50/50 to win a series, we'd expect they would have made the WS 6 times. Again, assuming about a 50/50 split, you'd then expect 3 WS wins.

They got 1

If you flipped a coin 6 times and got 1 head, instead of 3, would that be "unexplainable"? Hardly.

If you wanted to figure their real odds of just winning 1 WS in 116 seasons (as opposed to just looking at times they made the CS), you might find it's 1 in 10,000 or something. Certainly rare. But certainly explainable.


That's not to say it's not interesting when it happens in the little universes we've created though.
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Old 11-24-2019, 01:13 PM   #8
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It's only "unexplainable" if you don't understand probabilities.

You said they reached the championship series 11 times without winning. So, they then won 1 out of 12 times they reached the CS.

Assuming they were something like to 50/50 to win a series, we'd expect they would have made the WS 6 times. Again, assuming about a 50/50 split, you'd then expect 3 WS wins.

They got 1

If you flipped a coin 6 times and got 1 head, instead of 3, would that be "unexplainable"? Hardly.

If you wanted to figure their real odds of just winning 1 WS in 116 seasons (as opposed to just looking at times they made the CS), you might find it's 1 in 10,000 or something. Certainly rare. But certainly explainable.


That's not to say it's not interesting when it happens in the little universes we've created though.
I bet you're fun at parties... ever heard of hyperbole?
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Old 11-24-2019, 04:19 PM   #9
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I bet you're fun at parties... ever heard of hyperbole?
I guess I can only aspire to be hyperbolizing about my computer baseball game at parties fun.
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Old 11-25-2019, 10:34 PM   #10
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I'm still trying to figure out the Dallas Tropics and the Seattle Longhorns.
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Old 11-25-2019, 11:14 PM   #11
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I'm still trying to figure out the Dallas Tropics and the Seattle Longhorns.
Haha. I didn’t change any of the default names. This was just a sim league, not a play league
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Old 11-26-2019, 12:26 AM   #12
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I didn't know there were lakes around the Oklahoma City area. Learn something every day.
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Old 11-26-2019, 02:38 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CBeisbol View Post
It's only "unexplainable" if you don't understand probabilities.

You said they reached the championship series 11 times without winning. So, they then won 1 out of 12 times they reached the CS.

Assuming they were something like to 50/50 to win a series, we'd expect they would have made the WS 6 times. Again, assuming about a 50/50 split, you'd then expect 3 WS wins.

They got 1

If you flipped a coin 6 times and got 1 head, instead of 3, would that be "unexplainable"? Hardly.

If you wanted to figure their real odds of just winning 1 WS in 116 seasons (as opposed to just looking at times they made the CS), you might find it's 1 in 10,000 or something. Certainly rare. But certainly explainable.


That's not to say it's not interesting when it happens in the little universes we've created though.

Assuming they have a 1/20 chance of winning each year, then over 116 attempts the chance they have winning zero is 0.26% or 1 in 384.



The chance of exactly one victory is 1.59% or 1 in 63.



The chances of winning only once in 12 attempts at the World Series (assuming a 50% chance) is 0.29% or 1 in 341. To fail every time will be a 0.02% probability or 1 in 4096.
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