Worst Rating Mistake I have found

[revcarte]

All good comments. If nothing else, this thread generated a lot of good discussion

[Hasta la vista pelota]

FWIW, Diamond Mind's online game originally had Morgan rated average (on a 5-level scale) but recently changed him to "Vg," or very good after bowing to customer complaints. That tells me that a competitor even found that the stats don't support that Morgan was the Gold Glove caliber fielder that people seem to remember him to be.

[CHOWDERHEAD]

Originally Posted by JayWigley

Using BaseballReference.com, and using the Fielding Runs metric (where Joe Morgan was a -1, meaning he gave up one run more than the average 2B _over the course of all his games_) then these guys were better FIELDERS at 2B than Joe:
Rennie Stennett (+9, so 10 runs better than Joe)
Mike Tyson, Cardinals (+7, so 8 runs better than Joe)
Davey Lopes, Dodgers (+6, so 7 runs better)
Manny Trillo, Cubs, (+3, 4 better)
Rob Andrews, Astros (+6, 7 better)

There are a few more but those are "significantly" better. But you have to understand that it would take about 10 runs to change the outcome of 1 game, so. . .even the BEST in the league by this metric doesn't win one game all by his fielding.

Here is the link to this data:
1976 National League Standard Fielding - Baseball-Reference.com

Originally Posted by revcarte

intersting...that none of those guys ever won a gold glove....

I have enjoyed this discussion and appreciate the general tone of those involved. It is good to be able to discuss areas where some find weakness, and if substantiated, may lead to an improved tweak of the game. With that said, I cannot allow the above to go unchallenged. Davy Lopes won the 1978 NL Gold Glove, while Manny Trillo was a three (3) time winner of the Gold Glove Award (1979, 1981, and 1982). Were they as good as or better than Joe Morgan? Not sure, it was slightly before I really got into baseball, but the defensive metrics tell me there is an argument to be made that (at various points of their careers) they were.

[revcarte]

Originally Posted by CHOWDERHEAD

I have enjoyed this discussion and appreciate the general tone of those involved. It is good to be able to discuss areas where some find weakness, and if substantiated, may lead to an improved tweak of the game. With that said, I cannot allow the above to go unchallenged. Davy Lopes won the 1978 NL Gold Glove, while Manny Trillo was a three (3) time winner of the Gold Glove Award (1979, 1981, and 1982). Were they as good as or better than Joe Morgan? Not sure, it was slightly before I really got into baseball, but the defensive metrics tell me there is an argument to be made that (at various points of their careers) they were.

I stand corrected on Lopes and Trillo. I am surprised to learn that they won gold gloves. Thanks for your correction.
I just heard it said on ESPN that perhaps the only better second baseman than Alomar in the last 70 years was Joe Morgan. Made me feel vindicated to hear that

[tanda]

Rev,

I think you are confusing the ranking of second basemen as overall players vs. as fielders only.

Those of us who think he was overrated as a fielder do not deny his greatness as an overall player. I have him as the best player of the 70's, best on the great Reds teams and one of the two best second basemen ever, with Eddie Collins, but ahead of Hornsby, Lajoie, Gehringer, Alomar, Sandberg and Biggio. He was an average, even below average, defensive second baseman who had numerous years as the best offensive player in the league (4 times led in oWAR and twice second). That was his greatness. WAR, including his negative dWAR, has him as 25th best player ever.

ESPN's assessment seems to be as to him as an overall player (and is a gross understatement as he was assuredly significantly better than Alomar). It does not address the more limited issue of his defense.

[CHOWDERHEAD]

Originally Posted by revcarte

I just heard it said on ESPN that perhaps the only better second baseman than Alomar in the last 70 years was Joe Morgan. Made me feel vindicated to hear that

It wasn't Joe Morgan that said it, was it...?

[redsfan17]

I do agree that it is extremely hard to rate a player on the defensive side on the game. But another point is I think that's what makes this game great in general is the heated discussion that it can cause. And Joe's shortstop during alot of the Big Red Machine years was Davey Concepcion. And it could be the combination of the two working together is what made them look great to the coaches and scouts. I remember Barry Larkin talking on MLB network about how having consistency in your middle infield was the key to great defense, because the more guys play together the learn where the other guys is going to be around the bag and can make up for some of your mistakes. But really good discussion.

[revcarte]

Originally Posted by CHOWDERHEAD

It wasn't Joe Morgan that said it, was it...?

Very funny. I love it. No it was Tim Kurchan. Cannot spell his last name. That is why I left his name out in the first place.

[revcarte]

Hate to get stuff stirred up again but also found it odd that on the 76 Reds George Foster and Ken Griffey Sr. are both rated higher on defense than Geronimo (Gold Glover) and Geronimo had a gun for an arm but the other guys have stronger arm ratings. There was no way that Foster or Griffey were as good defensively or had better arms than Geronimo in 1976. Sorry!

[tanda]

Originally Posted by revcarte

Hate to get stuff stirred up again but also found it odd that on the 76 Reds George Foster and Ken Griffey Sr. are both rated higher on defense than Geronimo (Gold Glover) and Geronimo had a gun for an arm but the other guys have stronger arm ratings. There was no way that Foster or Griffey were as good defensively or had better arms than Geronimo in 1976. Sorry!

Let's look at ratings:

Geronimo: 4 assists (vs. 12, 13 and 9 in surrounding years), dWAR -0.7

Foster: 9 assists among all OF positions, 0.6 dWAR

Griffey: 10 assists among all OF positions, -1.0 dWAR

So, Geronimo's assists dropped before picking up next year. That explains his low arm in 76, particularly v. the others. You could argue that people stopped running on him, but why did he rebound to 9 in 77?

As to overall rating, I assume you are comparing their ratings at different OF positions. Foster and Griffey do not have higher CF ratings than Geronimo. So, it is a bit apples to oranges. Nonetheless, Cesar scores as below average in 76.

Based on metrics, the ratings appear fairly justified. The question is whether the metrics are correct or the reputations, since Griffey and Geronimo score lower than their reputation. dWAR does have Cesar at 5.5 total for his career which is good for CF with fairly short career. It just has him with a bad year in 76, the worst of his career.

Edit: I just looked at advanced fielding. His assist drop was NOT due to fewer runners testing him. He had the second most runners in his career try to advance on him in 76. His kill % was 2.8-5.6% every year from 74 to 77 except 76 when it was 1.1% which was his lowest ever for a full season. His bad throwing year appears to have hurt his arm and overall rating.

[ike121212]

1 thing never changes, when it comes to subjective defensive evaluation, everyone thinks 'their guy' is the best. Of course, they can't all be the best. You have to at least consider that the guys you weren't watching might be better. Everyone makes great plays occasionally. With all of the statistics available today, if you can't find any to support your opinion, it should make you question yourself.

Most Yankee fans are certain Texeira is was the best first baseman in baseball last year. Of course, the Cards, Mets, A's, Red Sox, and others are just as certain. Daric Barton won the Fielding Bible award. Of course, he doesn't have the name recognition to win a Gold Glove.

[revcarte]

Originally Posted by ike121212

1 thing never changes, when it comes to subjective defensive evaluation, everyone thinks 'their guy' is the best. Of course, they can't all be the best. You have to at least consider that the guys you weren't watching might be better. Everyone makes great plays occasionally. With all of the statistics available today, if you can't find any to support your opinion, it should make you question yourself.

Most Yankee fans are certain Texeira is was the best first baseman in baseball last year. Of course, the Cards, Mets, A's, Red Sox, and others are just as certain. Daric Barton won the Fielding Bible award. Of course, he doesn't have the name recognition to win a Gold Glove.

There is some truth to this I suppose. Like the guy who thinks Sandberg was better than Morgan...he was a Cubs fan. I guess someday people will look at saber-whatever ratings and conclude that Brian McCann was better than Johnny Bench or Thurman Munson

[ike121212]

Originally Posted by revcarte

There is some truth to this I suppose. Like the guy who thinks Sandberg was better than Morgan...he was a Cubs fan. I guess someday people will look at saber-whatever ratings and conclude that Brian McCann was better than Johnny Bench or Thurman Munson

I don't think catchers will ever get to same statistical level that fielders have. It's just the nature of the position. The legend of Bench might be insurmountable. I have no idea how a great current defensive catcher, like Yadier Molina, stacks up against him. Ozzie Smith's legend is probably similar. Last year's top SS, Troy Tulowitski, had a 1.1 dWAR. Ozzie's peak was 3.1, and he broke 1.7 several times.