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OOTP 19 - Historical Simulations Discuss historical simulations and their results in this forum. |
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09-23-2018, 11:18 PM | #1 |
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1871-2017 Defense Plus/Minus System
I was able to take a copy of the baseball databank/Lahman DB and update it with LF/CF/RF data from 1871-1953 as well as defensive innings played for every position 1871-1953. Using the formulas from Bill James in The Fielding Bible (2006) I was able to calculate Plus/Minus defensive plays made at every position every season.
I have +/- Errors for every position and these categories and their Defensive Run Values according to The Fielding Bible formulas: Catchers: PB +/-, CS +/- 0.62 each Infielders: A +/-, DP +/- A = 0.76, DP = 0.15 Outfielders: PO +/-, A +/- 0.56 each Here are the top defensive players at each position in the 1990's for each season: NL, AL C 1990: Pagnozzi, Parrish 1991: Pagnozzi, Rodriguez 1992: Manwaring, Rodriguez 1993: Wilkins/Manwaring, Karkovice 1994: Santiago, Steinbach 1995: Ausmus, Rodriguez/Steinbach 1996: Johnson, Rodriguez 1997: Johnson, Rodriguez 1998: Fabregas/Ausmus, Rodriguez 1999: Castillo, Rodriguez 1B 1990: Grace, Quintana 1991: Grace, Quintana/Stubbs 1992: Bagwell, Joyner 1993: Karros, Joyner 1994: Bagwell, Fielder (?) 1995: Bagwell, Joyner/Palmeiro 1996: Bagwell, Stahoviak 1997: Conine, King 1998: Helton, Segui 1999: Snow, McGriff 2B: 1990: Thompson/DeShields, Gallego 1991: Oquendo, Randolph 1992: Sandberg, Bordick 1993: Thompson, Fletcher 1994: Barberie, Alomar 1995: Sanchez, Gates 1996: Lemke, McLemore 1997: Lemke, John Valentin 1998: Veras, Grebeck 1999: Reese, Bush 3B: 1990: Hayes, Gaetti 1991: Caminiti, Pagliarulo 1992: Wallach, Ventura 1993: Caminiti, Boggs 1994: Williams, Cooper 1995: Williams/Caminiti, Fryman 1996: Castilla, Arias/Fryman 1997: Rolen, Cirillo 1998: Andrews, John Valentin 1999: Boone/Rolen/Ventura, John Valentin SS: 1990: Larkin, Guillen 1991: Larkin, Vizquel/Guillen 1992: Smith, Listach/Gagne 1993: Sanchez, John Valentin 1994: Stocker/Clayton, Jose Valentin 1995: Stocker, Gagne 1996: Gagne/Sanchez, Gonzalez 1997: Clayton, Gil 1998: Grudzielanek/Perez, Cruz 1999: Benjamin, Sanchez LF: 1990: Bonds, Rickey Henderson 1991: Gonzalez, Vaughn 1992: Gonzalez, Raines 1993: Gonzalez, Mack 1994: Gonzalez, Rickey Henderson 1995: Gonzalez, Cardova 1996: Gilkey, Phillips 1997: Hollandsworth, Higginson 1998: Bonds, Curtis 1999: Hidalgo/Jenkins, Erstad CF: 1990: Dykstra, Webster/White 1991: Butler, White 1992: Sanders, Willie Wilson, White 1993: Carr/Lewis, Lance Johnson 1994: Grissom, White 1995: Grissom, Javier 1996: Santangelo, Nixon 1997: Andruw Jones, Braggs 1998: Andruw Jones, Hunter 1999: Andruw Jones, J. Jones/G. Anderson RF: 1990: G. Wilson/L. Walker, Brunansky/Orsulak 1991: L. Walker, Sosa 1992: Justice/OÂ’Neill, Brunansky 1993: Merced/Justice, McLemore 1994: Whiten/Sosa, O,Neill 1995: Mondesi/Justice, Mieske 1996: Jordan, Green 1997: Andruw Jones, OÂ’Neill 1998: G. Williams, Lawton 1999: Cedeno, Dye P: 1990: Maddux, Stieb 1991: Liebrandt, Swift/Abbott 1992: Maddux, Viola/Hibbard 1993: Maddux, Liebrandt 1994: Fassero, Fernandez 1995: Maddux, D. Martinez/K. Brown/Langston 1996: Maddux, Hershiser 1997: Rueter, Rogers 1998: Maddux, Rogers 1999: Maddux/Glavine, Rogers Last edited by Garlon; 09-24-2018 at 12:12 AM. |
09-23-2018, 11:41 PM | #2 |
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Here are the top 5 career at each position since 1901:
C: Rodriguez, Schalk, Bench, Boone, Carter 1B: Hernandez, Votto, Power, Tenney, Sisler 2B: Frisch, Mazeroski, Hubbard, Lajoie, Hudson 3B: Schmidt, Bell, Rolen, Wallach, Nettles SS: Tinker, Smith, A. Fletcher, Doolan, Maranville LF: R. White, Veach, R. Henderson, Cruz, L. Gonzalez CF: Mays, Ashburn, A. Jones, Speaker, W. Davis RF: Clemente, Barfield, Hooper, Ott, Aaron P: Maddux, Mays, K. Rogers, T. John, Grimes |
09-24-2018, 12:08 AM | #3 |
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Here are the top career defensive players from 1871-1900:
C: Holberg, Bennet, Snyder 1B: Anson, Werden, Connor 2B: McPhee, Bierbauer, Lowe 3B: Latham, Williamson, Cross SS: G. Smith, Dahlen, Glasscock LF: Selbach, Hornung, M. Mansell/York CF: Welch, Griffin, McAleer RF: Shaffer, Keeler, Fogarty P: Bond, Clarkson, Galvin |
09-24-2018, 07:53 PM | #4 |
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The career leaders for certain stats on baseball reference only goes from 1953-2017. Here is a comparison of their rankings to the plus/minus rankings.
C (since 1953) BBR Total Zone Rating 1. Rodriguez 2. Molina 3. Sundberg 4. Boone 5. Carter 6. Ausmus 7. Bench 8. Crandall 9. Johnson 10. Dempsey Plus/Minus Defensive Runs Saved 1. Rodriguez 2. Boone 3. Bench 4. Carter 5. Molina 6. Ausmus 7. Dempsey 8. Pena 9. Sundberg 10. Crandall |
09-24-2018, 09:39 PM | #5 |
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The 1906-1910 Cubs won 536 games. Based on the league average of R/G, the team FIP, and the runs that they allowed in those seasons it appears that they saved 396 runs with their defense.
If we credit their errors saved as 0.25 runs each (this is mentioned in one context of The Fielding Bible III) and add this to their Defensive Runs Saved on their +/- plays, we get a total of 398 for those seasons. Without the errors, we get 345 from the +/- plays made. They made 215 fewer errors than expected in those seasons. |
09-24-2018, 10:26 PM | #6 |
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The 1989 NL R/G was 3.94 and the league FIP was 3.60. The Cubs had a FIP of 3.59 and had 4381 IPouts. ((3.94/3.60)*3.59)*(4381/27) = 637, this is their expected Runs Allowed based on their FIP. They actually allowed 623 Runs that season, so we can say they had 14 runs saved on defense.
Their Plus/Minus defensive runs saved that season come to 12. |
09-30-2018, 08:46 PM | #7 |
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I went ahead and calculated the FIP for every team 1871-2017. From this I was able to compare it to the league average runs allowed per 27 outs and determine how many runs above or below this a team was for a season. This is their expected Defensive Runs Saved for the season based on FIP. I then took a 3yr average of a team's expected DRS based on FIP and compared it to their 3yr average based on the PlusMinus system. The result was that the 3yr average was within 17 runs saved of the FIP expected. I did this because these are entirely independent ways of evaluating team defense and I wanted to see how well the PlusMinus system works. With regards to the difference, I think it may be small enough that a significant portion of those 17 runs allowed may just be to luck or a team having fewer/more opponents in scoring position against them, therefore their plays made above/below average may be worth slightly less or more than expected.
There are 2482 team seasons from 1901-2017 and 70% of them have a 3yr average difference within 20 DRS. For example, if we look at the 1906-1908 Cubs their FIP DRS total for those seasons is 272 and their PlusMinus DRS is 265, a difference of only 7. This puts their average season difference between these at less than 3 DRS for those seasons. This suggests that we have the data to properly model defense in OOTP. |
10-08-2018, 05:00 PM | #8 |
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C (since 1953)
BBR Total Zone Rating Plus/Minus Defensive Runs Saved 1. Rodriguez 1. Rodriguez 2. Molina 2. Boone 3. Sundberg 3. Carter 4. Boone 4. Bench 5. Carter 5. Molina 6. Ausmus 6. Ausmus 7. Bench 7. Sundberg 8. Crandall 8. Pena 9. Johnson 9. Dempsey 10. Dempsey 10. Johnson 11. Yeager 11. Crandall 12. Dalrymple 12. Lollar 13. Karkovice 13. Wynegar 14. Posey 14. Lavalier 15. Perez 15. Wilson 16. Blanco 16. Blanco 17. O’Brien 17. Pagnozzi 18. Matheny 18. R. Hundley 19. Wynegar 19. Karkovice 20. Pagnozzi 20. O’Brien |
10-08-2018, 05:08 PM | #9 |
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The baseball Reference site has Total Zone Career leaderboards by position from 1953-2017. I decided to compare their values with the values from the Plus/Minus system.
C (since 1953) BBR Total Zone Rating vs. Plus/Minus Defensive Runs Saved 1. Rodriguez 1. Rodriguez 2. Molina 2. Boone 3. Sundberg 3. Carter 4. Boone 4. Bench 5. Carter 5. Molina 6. Ausmus 6. Ausmus 7. Bench 7. Sundberg 8. Crandall 8. Pena 9. Johnson 9. Dempsey 10. Dempsey 10. Johnson 11. Yeager 11. Crandall 12. Dalrymple 12. Lollar 13. Karkovice 13. Wynegar 14. Posey 14. Lavalier 15. Perez 15. Wilson 16. Blanco 16. Blanco 17. O’Brien 17. Pagnozzi 18. Matheny 18. R. Hundley 19. Wynegar 19. Karkovice 20. Pagnozzi 20. O’Brien Last edited by Garlon; 10-08-2018 at 05:18 PM. |
10-08-2018, 05:10 PM | #10 |
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1B (since 1953)
BBR Total Zone Rating Plus/Minus Defensive Runs Saved 1. Hernandez 1. Votto 2. Helton 2. Hernandez 3. Pujols 3. Power 4. Gonzalez 4. Helton 5. Olerud 5. Pujols 6. Scott 6. Gonzalez 7. Grace 7. Bagwell 8. O’Brien 8. Sexson 9. Power 9. Buckner 10. Murray 10. Evans 11. Martinez 11. Fain 12. Overbay 12. Lee 13. White 13. Rizzo 14. Joyner 14. Bream 15. Yastrzemski 15. Cash 16. King 16. Murray 17. Skowron 17. Karros 18. Rizzo 18. Palmeiro 19. Bream 19. Olerud 20. Hodges 20. Joyner Last edited by Garlon; 10-08-2018 at 05:23 PM. |
10-08-2018, 05:13 PM | #11 |
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2B (since 1953)
BBR Total Zone Rating Plus/Minus Defensive Runs Saved 1. Mazeroski 1. Mazeroski 2. White 2. Hubbard 3. Randolph 3. Hudson 4. Fox 4. Grich 5. Pedroia 5. Sandberg 6. Ellis 6. Green 7. Whitaker 7. Kinsler 8. Kinsler 8. Cano 9. Cano 9. Reese 10. Lemke 10. Knoop 11. Cano 11. Whitaker 12. Grich 12. Gallego 13. Polanco 13. Sizemore 14. Green 14. Stennett 15. Knoop 15. Randolph 16. LeMahieu 16. Gantner 17. Cruz 17. Phillips 18. Kennedy 18. Hill 19. Utley 19. Thompson 20. Hill/Sandberg 20. Ellis Last edited by Garlon; 10-08-2018 at 05:23 PM. |
10-08-2018, 05:14 PM | #12 |
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3B (since 1953)
BBR Total Zone Rating Plus/Minus Defensive Runs Saved 1. Robinson 1. Schmidt 2. Bell 2. Bell 3. Beltre 3. Rolen 4. C. Boyer 4. Wallach 5. Ventura 5. Nettles 6. Rolen 6. C. Boyer 7. Nettles 7. Robinson 8. Gaetti 8. Evans 9. Schmidt 9. Pendleton 10. Longoria 10. Gaetti 11. Pendleton 11. Ventura 12. Boggs 12. Longoria 13. Williams 13. Seager 14. Cirillo 14. Polanco 15. Aur. Rodriguez 15. Williams 16. McMullen 16. Aur. Rodriguez 17. Inge 17. Inge 18. Uribe 18. Machado 19. K. Boyer 19. K. Boyer 20. Chavez 20. Caminiti |
10-08-2018, 05:15 PM | #13 |
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SS (since 1953)
BBR Total Zone Rating Plus/Minus Defensive Runs Saved 1. Smith 1. Smith 2. Belanger 2. Concepcion 3. Ripken 3. Belanger 4. Aparicio 4. Sanchez 5. Vizquel 5. McMillan 6. Tulowitzki 6. Guillen 7. Sanchez 7. Burleson 8. Guillen 8. Ryan 9. Simmons 9. Larkin 10. McMillan 10. Maxvill 11. Hansen 11. Simmons 12. Hardy 12. Speier 13. Gagne 13. Templeton 14. Trammell 14. Campaneris 15. Everett 15. Wilson 16. Brinkman 16. Russell 17. Wilson 17. Reynolds 18. Campaneris 18. Gagne 19. Bordick 19. Thon 20. Kubek 20. Perez |
10-08-2018, 05:15 PM | #14 |
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LF (since 1953)
BBR Total Zone Rating Plus/Minus Defensive Runs Saved 1. Ba. Bonds 1. R. White 2. Yastrzemski 2. R. Henderson 3. Gordon 3. Cruz 4. G. Anderson 4. L. Gonzalez 5. Crawford 5. Ba. Bonds 6. W. Wilson 6. W. Wilson 7. L. Gonzalez 7. Cromartie 8. Gilkey 8. Payton 9. J. Cruz 9. Foster 10. Gant 10. Crawford 11. R. Henderson 11. Ward 12. Damon 12. Tresh 13. Rose 13. Rose 14. R. White 14. Herndon 15. Erstad 15. Cl. Jones 16. Rudi 16. Gordon 17. Surhoff 17. Irvin 18. Cromartie 18. Giles 19. Gardner 19. Parra 20. DeJesus 20. Gardner |
10-08-2018, 05:16 PM | #15 |
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CF (since 1953)
BBR Total Zone Rating Plus/Minus Defensive Runs Saved 1. A. Jones 1. Mays 2. Mays 2. Ashburn 3. Blair 3. A. Jones 4. Piersall 4. Blair 5. Lofton 5. W. Davis 6. D. White 6. D. White 7. Beltran 7. Lemon 8. W. Davis 8. Flood 9. Flood 9. Maddox 10. Maddox 10. Pettis 11. Lemon 11. Dykstra 12. Cameron 12. Piersall 13. Erstad 13. Edmonds 14. Pettis 14. Busby 15. Dawson 15. Cameron 16. L. Johnson 16. W. Wilson 17. Edmonds 17. Berry 18. Geronimo 18. Javier 19. M. Upton 19. Landis 20. Agee 20. Taveras |
10-08-2018, 05:17 PM | #16 |
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RF (since 1953)
BBR Total Zone Rating Plus/Minus Defensive Runs Saved 1. Clemente 1. Clemente 2. Kaline 2. Barfield 3. Barfield 3. Aaron 4. Jordan 4. Heyward 5. Suzuki 5. Callison 6. Heyward 6. Kaline 7. Sosa 7. Dw. Evans 8. Walker 8. Rios 9. Aaron 9. Oliva 10. Sanders 10. O’Neill 11. Dw. Evans 11. Jordan 12. V. Guerroro 12. N. Cruz 13. G. Wilson 13. Justice 14. Kearns 14. Bo. Bonds 15. Betts 15. Pence 16. J. Cruz 16. Sosa 17. Oliva 17. Victorino 18. Rios 18. Kearns 19. Bo. Bonds 19. Sanders 20. Drew 20. Betts |
10-17-2018, 03:03 PM | #17 |
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This is fantastic work Garlon. Keep it coming. Maybe someday we'll have something that is closer to the RL defensive capabilities of each historical player. Which Sanders is that in RF? Reggie? Can't be Deion. He wasn't in baseball long enough to accumulate that level of defensive counting stats.
...Sad that it only goes back to 1953, but you've got to work with what you've got. I know TZR goes all the way back, but it must be Plus/Minus that's the fly in the ointment.
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My corrected FaceGen IDs .zip file here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1oRd...usp=share_link OOTP post re-FG IDs here: https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...postcount=3198 My DB which restores Fed Leaguers here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZoN...B2GCcULxt/view Instructions for the DB: https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...07&postcount=9 Last edited by actionjackson; 10-17-2018 at 03:06 PM. |
10-18-2018, 01:29 AM | #18 |
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That is Reggie Sanders. The Plus/Minus values I have calculated for every season 1871-2017, but I just posted those so you can see how close it is in agreement to BBR.
I took the 1906 season and custom edited every player's defensive ratings. I based this on the Plus/Minus values and a set of formulas for translating these to defensive ratings in OOTP with 120 on the 250 scale as the league average for every rating: I used 1905-1907 defensive data for players when creating the ratings. I moved some players to their traded teams and then turned off trades. Here are the results 1906 season Real vs Simulated Team FLD % BRO .955 vs .953 BSN .947 vs .955 CHC .969 vs .969 CIN .959 vs .962 NYG .964 vs .961 PHI .956 vs .962 PIT .964 vs .962 STL .957 vs .954 BOS .949 vs .958 CHW .963 vs .969 CLE .967 vs .968 DET .959 vs .962 NYY .957 vs .957 PHA .956 vs .959 SLB .954 vs .956 WSH .955 vs .957 Team DefEff BRO .694 vs .693 BSN .670 vs .689 CHC .736 vs .725 CIN .692 vs .704 NYG.696 vs .709 PHI .707 vs .710 PIT .701 vs .708 STL .693 vs .690 BOS .677 vs .686 CHW .705 vs .700 CLE .719 vs .715 DET.673 vs .688 NYY .693 vs .695 PHA .689 vs .703 SLB .708 vs .702 WSH .672 vs .684 The Cubs real 1905-1907 Team DefEff was .727, so I think this simulated value of .725 is really an excellent result. BSN 1905-1907 had a .953 FLD, again this simulated result of .955 seems on target. We have the Plus/Minus values and the formulas for properly modeling historical defense to this accuracy. Now we need to get it into the game. Last edited by Garlon; 10-18-2018 at 01:56 AM. |
10-18-2018, 06:17 PM | #19 | |
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Quote:
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My corrected FaceGen IDs .zip file here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1oRd...usp=share_link OOTP post re-FG IDs here: https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...postcount=3198 My DB which restores Fed Leaguers here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZoN...B2GCcULxt/view Instructions for the DB: https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...07&postcount=9 |
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10-18-2018, 06:55 PM | #20 |
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Thank you Garlon. I appreciate your various analysis. In fact, I started a historic league in 1901 using 20 teams and most of your other setting (using 3 yr recalc double weighted instead of 5 years) and it is going great. Just completed 1903. I do have to make some adjustments on opening day to make sure teams have enough pitchers and fielding positions are covered.
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