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Old 05-12-2013, 11:24 PM   #61
snepp
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This is now the BABIP/Avoid K looked for the players on each team (not terribly useful for this discussion, but whatever).

High K team: 122 BABIP + 75 Avoid K = 100 Contact

Low K team: 93 BABIP + 125 Avoid K = 100 Contact



Edit: I also ran the same test but used the "Gap / Avoid K" hypothetical that Bobble posted. The Gap team beat the Low-K team handily over a 200-game season, winning 118 while putting up a team OPS ~40 points higher.

Last edited by snepp; 05-12-2013 at 11:27 PM.
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Old 05-12-2013, 11:29 PM   #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobble View Post
Steering the discussion back towards something that helps me personally , who would you rather have:

CON GAP POW EYE K's
_50__75__50__50__50

or:
CON GAP POW EYE K's
_50__50__50__50__75
To this question the CLEAR answer is the top player because the contact rating already has the avoid K included. Injury log is correct that if you are considering a player's contact rating, the Avoid K rating can be ignored. Further than that, it SHOULD be ignored because by adding it to the equation you are over-valuing it's worth and undervaluing BABIP.

Even if we repeated snepp's experiment 10,000 times and found that the contact rating resulted in identical output without regard to the AvoidK/BABIP distribution that comprises it (I don't think this is the case, but offering the idea for the point of the discussion), the top player is better because of the increased incidence of doubles and triples from the superior gap rating.

Awesome thread.
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Old 05-12-2013, 11:36 PM   #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by snepp View Post
I also ran the same test but used the "Gap / Avoid K" hypothetical that Bobble posted. The Gap team beat the Low-K team handily over a 200-game season, winning 118 while putting up a team OPS ~40 points higher.
Because the Gap team actually had 25 additional rating points.

Once you have Contact in your equation, to consider AvoidK, as well, is an introduction of GIGO.
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Old 05-12-2013, 11:50 PM   #64
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Originally Posted by VanillaGorilla View Post
Once you have Contact in your equation, to consider AvoidK, as well, is an introduction of GIGO.
Yes, effectively.


Here's that first Avoid K test again, this time over 300 games instead of 100.

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Old 05-13-2013, 01:02 AM   #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by snepp View Post
Yes, effectively.


Here's that first Avoid K test again, this time over 300 games instead of 100.

Do you have the number for GIDPs? I am more just curious to see if there is a large distinction or how large.
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Old 05-13-2013, 01:16 AM   #66
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So if I'm reading the test runs correctly, then the only real rating that matters, to produce the results shown, is contact? Can I safely then assume that BABIP or Avoid K are ratings merely to help create variety? If so, and I'm not complaining, but that seems to be a lot of work built into the game, just to show statistical variety. Could be wrong though, since I haven't tracked OOTP for too long.

Again, this is just an awesome discussion!
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Old 05-13-2013, 01:26 AM   #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goalieump413 View Post
So if I'm reading the test runs correctly, then the only real rating that matters, to produce the results shown, is contact? Can I safely then assume that BABIP or Avoid K are ratings merely to help create variety? If so, and I'm not complaining, but that seems to be a lot of work built into the game, just to show statistical variety. Could be wrong though, since I haven't tracked OOTP for too long.

Again, this is just an awesome discussion!
You're kind right and kinda wrong

Contact does matter more than babip or avoid k because the contact rating is simply the combination of the babip and avoid k ratings with a little additional influence from the other ratings.

So no, babip and avoid k aren't just to add flavor, they're the two most integral ingredients in the contact rating.
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Old 05-13-2013, 02:28 AM   #68
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Originally Posted by turdfurgeson View Post
Do you have the number for GIDPs? I am more just curious to see if there is a large distinction or how large.

220 for the high strikeout team
258 for the low
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Old 05-13-2013, 10:23 AM   #69
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Originally Posted by lukasberger View Post
You're kind right and kinda wrong

Contact does matter more than babip or avoid k because the contact rating is simply the combination of the babip and avoid k ratings with a little additional influence from the other ratings.

So no, babip and avoid k aren't just to add flavor, they're the two most integral ingredients in the contact rating.
But once I know CON (and that's not something that's hidden behind the scenes like BABIP), then I can ignore(1) Avoid K's (and effectively BABIP that I could only see in the editor anyway). Is that what we're saying here? 'Cause that seems odd. We have a whole rating displayed for every player that effectively doesn't matter?

1. Well, maybe not IGNORE but at least greatly devalue. I suppose you still have the effect of fouling off a bunch of pitches, hoping the defense makes an error on a batted ball, and whether you think you'll get more out of "productive outs" than GIDPs.
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Old 05-13-2013, 11:01 AM   #70
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobble View Post
But once I know CON (and that's not something that's hidden behind the scenes like BABIP), then I can ignore(1) Avoid K's (and effectively BABIP that I could only see in the editor anyway). Is that what we're saying here? 'Cause that seems odd. We have a whole rating displayed for every player that effectively doesn't matter?

1. Well, maybe not IGNORE but at least greatly devalue. I suppose you still have the effect of fouling off a bunch of pitches, hoping the defense makes an error on a batted ball, and whether you think you'll get more out of "productive outs" than GIDPs.
Correct......it's not that it doesn't matter, it's just that it's already taken into account in the Contact rating (which I could do without).....

Same thing with Stuff and Movement and Pitch Ratings and GB%, respectively.....

I'd personally like to see all the collective ratings take a holiday.....
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Old 05-13-2013, 11:06 AM   #71
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Originally Posted by Questdog View Post
Correct......it's not that it doesn't matter, it's just that it's already taken into account in the Contact rating (which I could do without).....

Same thing with Stuff and Movement and Pitch Ratings and GB%, respectively.....

I'd personally like to see all the collective ratings take a holiday.....
Stuff is from the pitch ratings, I get that. Movement and GB% is redundant? I assumed Movement was homeruns and GB% was grounder in-play or fly ball in-play. That's not the case?
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Old 05-13-2013, 11:11 AM   #72
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Yes, GB% effects fb/gb out ratio, just like K rating affects strikeouts for batters. But as far as homers and hits allowed, its influence is already accounted for in the STUFF and MOVEMENT ratings. So, it's independent value is about as meaningful as the K rating for hitters....
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Old 05-13-2013, 11:16 AM   #73
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Originally Posted by Questdog View Post
Yes, GB% effects fb/gb out ratio, just like K rating affects strikeouts for batters. But as far as homers and hits allowed, its influence is already accounted for in the STUFF and MOVEMENT ratings. So, it's independent value is about as meaningful as the K rating for hitters....
But doesn't a high GB% give me many more opportunities at GIDP versus a "productive out" fly ball that allows the runners to tag?
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Old 05-13-2013, 01:17 PM   #74
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But doesn't a high GB% give me many more opportunities at GIDP versus a "productive out" fly ball that allows the runners to tag?
Sounds like it's time for another test

Paging snepp
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Old 05-13-2013, 03:09 PM   #75
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I know GB% is tied into movement in some way. I'm pretty sure if you up GB% in the editor the pitcher's movement score will increase as well. Are there individual pitches that increase the movement?


I just may have a run a season on this.

Last edited by snepp; 05-13-2013 at 03:11 PM.
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Old 05-13-2013, 04:14 PM   #76
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The pitching ratings work roughly as follows:

GB% - determines the proportion of balls in play which are groundballs. With a higher GB%, a pitcher will get more double plays, but he will also give up more hits (higher BABIP), since groundballs are more likely to be hits than are flyballs. In general, the double plays help a bit more than the extra hits hurt, so all else being equal, you'd slightly prefer to have a higher GB%.

Stuff - determines a pitcher's K-rate. It is not an independent rating; it is calculated in a complicated way from all of the individual pitch ratings, and from the Velocity rating. When you make a pitcher a reliever, his best-rated pitches become more important in the Stuff calculation, so a guy with pitches rated 90/90/10 (out of 100) will get a bigger boost to Stuff, when you convert him to MR, than will a guy with pitches rated 50/50/50.

Movement - determines a pitcher's HR-rate. It is partly based on a hidden 'movement rating', and partly based on GB%, but GB% is an important factor in determining Movement. Because GB% is never too extreme (almost always between 40% and 70%), Movement ratings tend to be confined to a narrower range of values than other pitcher ratings.

Control - determines a pitcher's BB-rate. It's the only one of the three pitching ratings that is 'stand-alone'; it's not calculated by combining other ratings together.

Individual pitch ratings - are an important factor in a pitcher's Stuff rating, but have many other effects. Along with Stamina, they determine if a pitcher is capable of being an effective SP (a pitcher needs a fairly deep repertoire). Different pitches have different influences on Stuff (the relative value of pitches was determined by using Pitch FX data). Certain pitches have special effects. A pitcher with a good Knuckleball, for example, will have a lower BABIP than average. The Sinker, and to a lesser extent the Curve, have an influence on GB rate and Movement (not directly, but when the game increases the Sinker rating, it will also increase those other ratings). Pitch types determine platoon splits as well - a Screwballer, for example, will have a reverse platoon split, while a pitcher relying heavily on a Slider will have a pronounced platoon split.


The three main pitching ratings (Stuff/Movement/Control) give you most of the info you need about how a pitcher will perform. In general, if a pitcher is very far below average in everything (say he has 30/30/30 ratings out of 100), then if you could add 20 points somewhere, you'd want to add it to Control. But, if a pitcher is average or above everywhere, things are different. If a pitcher has, say, 55/55/55 ratings everywhere, then if you could add 20 points somewhere, you'd want to add them to Movement (with Stuff a close second). Once a pitcher is fairly decent at Control, adding points there doesn't help nearly as much as would adding points elsewhere.
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Old 05-13-2013, 09:38 PM   #77
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@ injury log - Your post should be in the manual.
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Old 05-14-2013, 01:43 AM   #78
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Full disclosure, this is being done in v13, so I don't know if any changes have been made in this area for the new version.

Here's a GB% test. I gave the high team a GB% of 60 for all pitchers, the low team was given 40% for all. The hidden movement ratings were edited so that both staffs had identical final movement ratings (as seen in the player profile page).

I tried to set up the defenses so that they were roughly equivalent between infield/outfield, but that's still a big potential source for error.

The "High" team is the 60% groundball team, with "Low" the 40% team.



I'm going to re-run this test a few more times, I thought the results were pretty interesting.

The specific numbers for the pitcher ratings were...

High GB: 60% GB rate + 60 hidden movement = 54 final movement
Low GB: 40% GB rate + 135 hidden movement = 54 final movement
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Old 05-14-2013, 02:06 AM   #79
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Full disclosure, this is being done in v13
Oh, Bat Balls!

Can you send your data on a floppy disk over to the v 13 forum, pleeeeease??

Geeeez....I feel like I just got a Tracy Lords movie on Betamax.
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Old 05-22-2013, 04:00 PM   #80
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Originally Posted by VanillaGorilla View Post
the contact rating already has the avoid K included. Injury log is correct that if you are considering a player's contact rating, the Avoid K rating can be ignored. Further than that, it SHOULD be ignored because by adding it to the equation you are over-valuing it's worth and undervaluing BABIP.
So you are saying that these two players have identical value:

Player A: Contact 50, Avoid K 25
Player B: Contact 50, Avoid K 75

I'm going to put up a counterhypothesis in hopes that someone will enhance my understanding by refuting it: Player B is more valuable because he gets the same result while driving up the opposing team's pitch count.

Snepp, could you perchance repeat your experiment with good-but-low-stamina starters and horrible relievers?
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