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Old 09-23-2008, 11:24 PM   #1
gadorg
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Contracts - buy out arbitration years

Hey guys,

I've got a couple of guys who are eligible for arbitration this offseason but have had either a very good rookie year or a great first two years. The 2nd guy in particular is one of the very best at his position (LF) already... 40+ homer power, 120+ RBI's, etc. The 2nd guy wants a contract starting at 13MIL. The first guy is a RHP who went 15-8 w/ a sub 3.00 ERA in his rookie year.

What is your opinion about giving either of these guys big contracts that would cover their arb years, especially the 2nd guy. If I just take these guys to arb year by year, they're much more affordable, but it would be nice to lock them up into their first year or two of free agency. But again, esp in the 2nd guys case, in new contract he would go from 400K to 13.5MIL :*(
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Old 09-24-2008, 01:56 AM   #2
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Me personally I like to lock up great players early to about the 33 to 35 age range for as cheap as I can get them. Sure you could string them along in arb, but what happens when at the end of that time they decide that someone else is better and gives more money. If you lock them up early on you know what exactly you have to plan for in future drafts, with players already in the farm, trades, ect. Of course if they are asking for HUGE numbers that can cause me to think about it a little harder, but if it is even close to the average of a star caliber player pay it.
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Old 09-24-2008, 04:11 AM   #3
Curtis
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The other thing to think about is, what if you lock him up for ten or twelve years, then he tanks?

It's all personal preference, but my preference would be to wait until his final arbitration was looming, then offer a six or seven year deal if his numbers seemed to be holding up.
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Old 09-24-2008, 06:03 AM   #4
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Yeah that is another consideration. That is why I usually don't hit with anything more then a 6 or 7 year deal, and the last year is always a team option. If you start to see a slide early start the trade process early. Of course if the team is full of big contracts that is another problem so it is always dependent on other issues.
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Old 09-24-2008, 01:40 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Curtis View Post
The other thing to think about is, what if you lock him up for ten or twelve years, then he tanks?

It's all personal preference, but my preference would be to wait until his final arbitration was looming, then offer a six or seven year deal if his numbers seemed to be holding up.
Yeah, this was/is my originally strategy. It might cost me a few million more a year if his numbers hold up, but if he can produce similar numbers the next 2 seasons, it will be worth it. I just noticed another young star of mine, a 27 yo shortstop who is first time arbitration eligible this offseason wants to go from 309K to 12.9MIL/year on a two year extension. Geez.
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Old 09-24-2008, 01:41 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by phillosopherp View Post
Yeah that is another consideration. That is why I usually don't hit with anything more then a 6 or 7 year deal, and the last year is always a team option. If you start to see a slide early start the trade process early. Of course if the team is full of big contracts that is another problem so it is always dependent on other issues.
Given that the ratings seem to be fickle and can fluctuate quite a bit year to year, I am loathe to give a young star a 6-7 year deal. I might go five tops, but not 7 years. I inherited the Padres when I started my league and simmed ahead a few years and took over in 2012, and I saw that they gave 1 star SS Khalil Greene an 11MIL/year contract, which I thankfully was able to move to another team (3B Adrian Beltre, making 15MIL/year, but this is the last year of his deal).
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Old 09-24-2008, 09:04 PM   #7
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FWIW, I usually let them go through their first 2 arb years and if they're still good I'll look to buy out the final one and free agency.

Although it does get tricky. If the guy seems to be following a more normal arc, getting a little better through his first arb year and still has room to go up I may buy out the last 2 arb years plus.

I would be very cautious with the "2nd guy" you have. It seems and maybe it only seems that way but it does seem that that type of player is OOTPs favorite type of player to kill. I've had a LOT of guys that are gods of baseball at 22 or 23 years old, cash in big for their first arb year, and then turn to crap before they're 25th birthday. I clearly remember a LF, a RF, a 3B, a C, 2 1B, and 3 pitchers who followed that pattern... and that's from MY team over the course of 30 seasons. That is from the past version(s) though, and it was supposedly tweaked for v9.
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Old 09-24-2008, 10:35 PM   #8
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I usually try to avoid arbitration just because I don't like the uncertainty of it. It's a little easier with OOTP9's arbitration estimates, but before that, you had no idea what an arbiter might give the guy.

That being said, I have yet to offer an arb eligible guy more than a 3 or 4 year deal. And I've been bitten on some of those deals already. I just do it so I know for sure what my payroll will be the following year.

UNLESS the demands of the arb eligible player are completely unreasonable. Then I either dump them or go to arb if the estimate is more reasonable than what they're asking for.
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Old 09-24-2008, 11:18 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hefalumps View Post
I usually try to avoid arbitration just because I don't like the uncertainty of it. It's a little easier with OOTP9's arbitration estimates, but before that, you had no idea what an arbiter might give the guy.

That being said, I have yet to offer an arb eligible guy more than a 3 or 4 year deal. And I've been bitten on some of those deals already. I just do it so I know for sure what my payroll will be the following year.

UNLESS the demands of the arb eligible player are completely unreasonable. Then I either dump them or go to arb if the estimate is more reasonable than what they're asking for.
Speaking of arb estimates.... how accurate are OOTP's arbitration estimates that they give on the salary pages? My SS is 1st time arb eligible and his arb estimate is 5.6MIL, which I'm more than willing to pay if it comes to it, but due to payroll limitations, I'd rather not have to deal with a salary that could top, say, 8MIL if I lose the case.
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Old 09-25-2008, 12:59 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gadorg View Post
Speaking of arb estimates.... how accurate are OOTP's arbitration estimates that they give on the salary pages? My SS is 1st time arb eligible and his arb estimate is 5.6MIL, which I'm more than willing to pay if it comes to it, but due to payroll limitations, I'd rather not have to deal with a salary that could top, say, 8MIL if I lose the case.
From what I saw in testing, the arbitration estimate is 100% accurate if the season were to be over at that moment. So if it's July and it says 5 million, he could end up a great distance from that number... but if it's September 30 it's probably pretty darn close to what he'll get.
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I firmly believe that any man's finest hour... is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious. (Vince Lombardi)

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