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Perfect Team Discover the new amazing online league competition & card collecting mode of OOTP!

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Old 03-16-2019, 10:35 PM   #1
HRBaker
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Variances - again...

Was reviewing my season results (only a few games to go).

Here's my regular lineup. The BA and WAR figures in (parenthesis) are my teams stats - the BA and WAR figures in [square parenthesis} is the best version of that player in my league. I had the only Johnny Bench in my league.

C Bench (.224, 2.4) [N/A]
1B Freeman (.240, -0.4) [.312, 3.1]
2B Ramirez (.257, 2.7) [.272, 4.5]
3B Renden (.291, 2.1) [.280, 4.1]
SS Lindor (.255, 4.0) [.273, 5.7]
LF Yelich (.281, 3.7) [.309, 3.9]
CF Trout (.238, 4.0) [.290, 6.1]
RF Judge (.229, 0.2) [.259, 2.3]

This is my defense for large range variability. If these ranges were smaller, outcomes would be more restricted. In other words, if Mike Trout ALWAYS batted within .005 points of .290 and 0.5 point of a 6.0 WAR - you could fairly easily project who was going to win the season from starting lineups.

I'm going to end up in 2nd Place with those figures to the left - MAYBE with a wild card position, but had my players performed at the right hand figures (simply a matter of who I faced and randomness) I would likely be heading to the world series.

And were I to do this comparison for my pitching staff, I'm sure I would see a similar range of performances.

I'm fine with the range of performance as it is. Anything more restrictive would make this a very boring game.
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Old 03-16-2019, 11:08 PM   #2
2002halos
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Very interesting.

I agree that randomness and the luck of schedule strength are the main factors involved.

But there are other factors, as many have mentioned... strategy settings, fatigue, etc.

My pitchers always underperform the same cards on other teams, but that isn't surprising... My park is a hitters' park and I sacrifice defense in favor of offense, so I expect that.

I strongly suspect the game engine includes some things most people aren't aware of.

For example, I think there's a high probability that situational modifiers are applied to mirror real life baseball. For example, everyone having a higher batting avg with men on base, or a lower walk rate with the bases loaded.

But this can have a cascading effect... if one of your players has a bad luck hitting slump, then having fewer base runners on base can mean the next guy hits worse too, because he isn't getting that modifier edge.

Another thing I've never seen anyone mention on these boards...
Expected variability of results will be higher with players who derive their value from hitting home runs. Simply because events that are more rare take longer to regress to the mean.
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Old 03-16-2019, 11:23 PM   #3
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I am seeing similar variance, albeit in Bronze. It always seems my hitters do considerably worse than equivalent hitters, albeit in the same league/division, so they're playing the same teams I am playing, and the same number of times). I'm not sure why, TBH. If there are 3 Bryce Harpers, mine is always last in the league leader categories, behind 2 other Bryce Harpers in the same league...
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Old 03-17-2019, 08:57 AM   #4
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Tired matters. Too many managers just tell the AI to rest when tired. There are degrees of tired for players the same as pitchers. Then they have the same sub try to get around to resting them when several players are tired at once. I try to figure out how many games before a player starts showing tired pct., then I set his replacement for the games number to avoid that tired at all just like my starting pitchers. Try it.

Strategy sliders. Your choices matter on your team's performance.
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Old 03-17-2019, 12:02 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kushiel View Post
Tired matters. Too many managers just tell the AI to rest when tired. There are degrees of tired for players the same as pitchers. Then they have the same sub try to get around to resting them when several players are tired at once. I try to figure out how many games before a player starts showing tired pct., then I set his replacement for the games number to avoid that tired at all just like my starting pitchers. Try it.

Strategy sliders. Your choices matter on your team's performance.
Makes sense, but how to figure when a player starts getting tired? You would need to check after each game for several games, no?
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Old 03-17-2019, 01:49 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kushiel View Post
Tired matters. Too many managers just tell the AI to rest when tired. There are degrees of tired for players the same as pitchers. Then they have the same sub try to get around to resting them when several players are tired at once. I try to figure out how many games before a player starts showing tired pct., then I set his replacement for the games number to avoid that tired at all just like my starting pitchers. Try it.

Strategy sliders. Your choices matter on your team's performance.
Very interesting. What is a good number of games to set it too?
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Old 03-17-2019, 02:26 PM   #7
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Makes sense, but how to figure when a player starts getting tired? You would need to check after each game for several games, no?
That's exactly right! Plus, the game gives no warning, 1 day everyone is 100%, next game 5 players are tired.
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Old 03-17-2019, 02:30 PM   #8
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He did say, "I try to figure out how many games before a player starts showing tired pct., then I set his replacement for the games number to avoid that tired at all just like my starting pitchers."

It's a manual operation having to track fatigue to find the patterns.
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Old 03-17-2019, 02:33 PM   #9
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That's exactly right! Plus, the game gives no warning, 1 day everyone is 100%, next game 5 players are tired.
That is what I mean. The game allows you to set up how often a utility player starts a game: from "if starter tired to every 20th game." How would you know what to set it at? Maybe I am over thinking this!
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Old 03-17-2019, 05:28 PM   #10
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The only players I set to rest only when tired are platoon players. The RH platoon hitters usually get a break because I face a LH pitcher often enough most times. The other players I watch how tired they are getting for awhile. Then I set that sub to avoid the tired cycle. Is this not why we have subs? Maybe I do not know what I am doing and just micromanaging but you will rarely if ever face a tired player on my teams.
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Old 03-17-2019, 06:35 PM   #11
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Quote:
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The only players I set to rest only when tired are platoon players. The RH platoon hitters usually get a break because I face a LH pitcher often enough most times. The other players I watch how tired they are getting for awhile. Then I set that sub to avoid the tired cycle. Is this not why we have subs? Maybe I do not know what I am doing and just micromanaging but you will rarely if ever face a tired player on my teams.
I think I understand now!! What is your baseline, slightly tired or tired?
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Old 03-18-2019, 05:14 PM   #12
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Maybe I do not know what I am doing and just micromanaging but you will rarely if ever face a tired player on my teams.
Sounds like you know exactly what you're doing. I'm sure it helps a tiny bit.



Unfortunately that level of micromanagement is just not an option for most of us, we have to "set it & forget it" and go to work.
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