Long Overdue: Rebuilding the 2019 Reds (OOTP 2020)

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Reds Announce Major Roster Shakeup Imminent
Associated Press | March 20, 2019

Cincinnati, Ohio -- In an unusual showing of transparency from an MLB team, the Cincinnati Reds held a press conference today warning fans to brace themselves for what could be a long, painful rebuild. This might have seemed strange to fans, as one could argue that they are already in the midst of a long, painful rebuild, with no playoff appearances - or even .500 seasons - since their Wildcard loss in 2013.

"We realize that the last several years have been tough, but our performance in 2018 confirmed to us that changes need to be made up and down the roster," said Nick Krall, the team's general manager who was promoted to the position in May 2018. "Having hired our manager of the future in David Bell earlier this offseason, the next step is to convert our stable of veterans and impending free agents into prospects who will one day form the nucleus of the next winning Reds team. There will be some tough decisions to make, and it won't be easy saying goodbye to some of our veterans, but we feel this is the best way to maximize value and ensure that winning baseball will return to Cincinnati sooner rather than later."

Krall went into further detail about what he called a "scorched-earth" approach that the team plans to take, explaining that his front office's research indicated that this was empirically proven to be the most successful way to rebuild. "If you take a look at recent successful rebuilding stories - the Astros, the Cubs, even the Philadelphia 76ers in the NBA - they didn't go halfway with their rebuilds, they went all the way. I think the root of the problem with this team over the last 5 years is that we didn't fully commit to it, didn't go all the way. That's why we're stuck here, many years removed from our last playoff appearance with no real chance of competing anytime soon. This full teardown and rebuild should have happened a while ago, but better late than never. So that's what we're going to do, starting right now."

When asked about the curious timing of this decision - just 1 week before Opening Day - Krall got defensive. "Should we have made this decision at the beginning of the offseason rather than after Spring Training? Probably, yeah. But really we should have made it years ago. Like I said, better late than never. What's done is done. I'm sorry to all the people who purchased season tickets, but I hope we can all agree that this move is for the best and will pay off in the long run. Hopefully we can soften the blow a bit by being as transparent as the league will allow. I'll even be running a monthly blog on the team website so that fans can follow along with our roster moves and get an inside look at our thought process throughout the rebuild."

The willingness of the team to be so open about its strategy came as a surprise to many. Krall addressed this point, saying "We might get fined by the league for saying some of these things - although I never explicity said the 't-word' - but honestly the cost of the fine will be a lot cheaper than the salaries of some of these veterans we'll be unloading in the coming weeks."

While the Reds have some intriguing prospects already, such as Nick Senzel, Hunter Greene and Taylor Trammel, they also still have many veterans such as Yasiel Puig, Sonny Gray and of course Joey Votto.

It is shaping up to be an interesting 2019 season for the Cincinnati Reds - albeit moreso in the rumor mill than in the standings. Fans can follow the general manager's blog to get monthly updates on the team's strategy, roster moves and performance.

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Nick's Blog Post #1 - March 2019 (Part 1)
March 27, 2019

Hello Reds fans! Welcome to my very first blog post!

It's been a hectic couple of weeks for the team, so let me recap all of the trades that we've made since my infamous press conference to make sure you're all up to speed ahead of our first game of the regular season.

Trades

As you can imagine, once we pretty much put up a For Sale sign on our veterans, we started receiving a lot of calls from other teams (plus a few from the Commissioner's office!). We wasted no time in answering those calls and making moves, as the worst thing you can do to for player morale is keep a bunch of disgruntled veterans hanging around for months on end while waiting to be traded (just ask Jay Bruce!). So without further ado, here's a rundown of the major trades we've made between Spring Training and Game 1 of our 2019 regular season:

Reds receive: OF Nomar Mazara (24), C Jett Bandy (28)
Rangers receive: OF Matt Kemp (34), C Curt Casali (30)

This one might come as a bit of a shock to some, given that we (A) just acquired Kemp a few months ago and (B) the Rangers are coming off of a 67-win season just like us, but (A) our strategy has changed since December and (B) I'm not here to judge other teams' decisions. Maybe they just don't like Mazara? Maybe they're sad about how great Nelson Cruz has been since he left Texas and they want to try to replicate that success with an aging slugger of their own in Kemp? Who knows. All I know is that Mazara is a young outfielder who has All-Star potential, and it barely cost us anything of long-term value, especially given that Kemp will be a 35 year old free agent at the end of the season. We see Mazara as our right fielder of the present as well as the future, and he will be given every opportunity to succeed in Cincinnati.

Reds receive: SP Alex Reyes (24), SP Dakota Hudson (24), 2B Tommy Edman (23), 2B Edmundo Sosa (23), CF Joerlin De Los Santos (18)
Cardinals receive: OF Yasiel Puig (28), SP Jesus Reyes (26), SS Blake Trahan (25)

This trade hurt a bit more than the Kemp trade - especially since it was within the division - as Puig was another guy we had just acquired earlier in the offseason and were really looking forward to seeing him in a Reds uniform. However, tough decisions need to be made in a full rebuild like ours, and we believe the return we got justifies the decision. Jesus Reyes and Blake Trahan were solid if unspectacular members of our organization in the high-minors, and while we valued their contributions we did not see them as long-term pieces of our team.

Reyes was a top 10 prospect in baseball as recently as mid-2016, but injuries have slowed his progress and turned him into more of a reclamation project. However, he still has 4 "plus" pitches and can reach 98MPH with his fastball, so we see him as a high-risk, high-reward investment who could turn out to be a complete bust, but could also become our ace.

We also got a solid young starter in Hudson, who posted a 2.50 ERA across 19 starts in AAA last year. We'll be using him in our rotation in the majors this season, and have high hopes for him as well.

Edman projects to be a solid utility player, with decent contact skills and the ability to play every position other than catcher, albeit with very little home run power. Sosa also has utility player potential, with a bit more SLG and a bit less OBP than Edman. De Los Santos is an intriguing lottery ticket, with elite athleticism and speed. Our scouting team sees him as a future above-average centerfielder, although as an 18 year old who was signed out of the Dominican in 2017 as an international free agent, he has a long way to go before he gets there.

Reds receive: SS Orlando Arcia (24), SP Aaron Ashby (20), OF Korry Howell (20), OF Je'Von Ward (19), C Jacob Nottingham (23)
Brewers receive: SS Jose Iglesias (29), C Hendrik Clementina (21), minor league filler

With apologies to fans of highlight reel-worthy defensive plays - not to mention Jose's agent - Iglesias will not play a regular season game in a Reds uniform after all. Just a few months after signing him to a 1-year contract, we have reversed course and decided to ship him out for a younger, cheaper SS in Arcia. As another post-hype prospect - he peaked at #88 on MLB.com's Top 100 prospects list in 2015 - Arcia hasn't had much success at the MLB level, and most recently posted an abysmal 60 OPS+ in 2018. His tools are undeniable though, and if he can figure things out we think he could become an above-average hitter while playing above-average defense at shortstop. He's still only 24 and has a great work ethic, so we're hoping the low-pressure environment of a rebuilding team will help him turn it around and become our long-term shortstop.

The rest of our haul consists of toolsy young rookie-ball prospects (Howell and Ward), a potential future starting pitcher (Ashby) and a AAA catcher who could turn into a league-average everyday player for us in the near future (Nottingham). Meanwhile, the remaining pieces we surrendered in addition to Iglesias were guys who we saw as "org players", with the exception of Clementina, a 21 year old catching prospect who has the potential to become a solid MLB player. We would have rather excluded him from the trade, but talks stalled when we tried to take him off the table so we decided in the end to let him go for the sake of getting the deal done.

Reds receive: 2B Nick Solak (24), 1B Nate Lowe (23), SS Christian Arroyo (23), SS Jelfry Marte (23), SP Resly Linares (21)
Rays receive: SP Sonny Gray (29), SS Jose Israel Garcia (20), minor league filler

Yet another offseason transaction undone here - at least there wasn't much time for fans to get too attached to Gray before we shipped him out! Gray was picked up in a trade with the Yankees in January, but we've decided to move on from him without so much as a single regular season start from him in a Reds uniform. Why? Why not! While his value seemed to be at an all-time low earlier this offseason the Rays made an offer we couldn't refuse. A 29 year old pitcher is a rapidly depreciating asset and has no place on a rebuilding team as far as I'm concerned. Obviously this hurts our rotation in the near-term but that is quite clearly a major concern for us.

What does hurt about this trade is giving up Jose Israel Garcia. Ranked as our #9 prospect by MLB.com heading into the season, Jose has the tools to one day become an everyday middle infielder in the majors. However, the Rays seemed to value him more than we do, and he was the key to unlocking the treasure trove of prospects that we received in this trade.

Solak is in many ways the crown jewel of this prospect haul. He put up 5 WAR in126 games at AA in 2018, and has the potential to do the same in the majors soon enough. He also has the added perk of positional diversity, with a Ben Zobrist-like ability to play every position at an above-average level. He'll be playing in AAA this year but we see him as a key piece of our lineup of the future.

Lowe is another exciting prospect we received, and is nearly major league ready. He had a breakout year in 2018, rising from High-A to AAA over the course of the season, and raked at every stop along the way. With 27 homers and a .400 OBP in 130 games, he brings a mix of power and on-base skills that will be familiar to Reds fans who are used to elite production from the 1B position. He will start the season in AAA but don't be surprised if you see him in the majors later this year.

Arroyo is an intriguing prospecct with an elite glove and the potential to become a solid hitter. He hasn't impressed with his production over the past 2 years, but his talent and work ethic were enough for us to take a gamble on.

The biggest wildcard of the bunch is Marte, who our scouting team sees as the second coming of Dee Gordon but with better fielding. Given that he just turned 18 years old a few days ago (happy birthday!), most of that is obviously just projection, but we are excited to see how he develops.

Lastly, Linares is a young pitcher with the potential to develop 3 above-average pitches. We see his upside as becoming a mid-rotation starter.

Next Update

Given that this update is already ridiculously long, I'll end it there for now. Check back soon for a season preview in which I profile the Opening Day lineup and pitching staff.

Following that, I will revert to a regular monthly format in which I will give an update on how the first month of the season goes (including any more trades that we manage to pull off). I'll also sneak in some posts discussing our philosophy and our approach to building the team, as well as a rundown of our organization's top prospects.

Until next time!

[vigilante225]

Nick's Blog Post #2 - March 2019 (Part 2)
March 30, 2019

Now that the dust has (somewhat) settled following our flurry of trade activity just before Opening Day, let's kick the season off with a quick look at our lineup, rotation and bullpen, along with an overview of our top prospects heading into the season.

Lineup

C Tucker Barnhart (28 years old)
2018 Stats: .248/.328/.372, 10 HR in 138 G

Barnhart has been a dependable fixture in our lineup over the past several years, and is locked in through 2022 on a very reasonable contract. That being said, as a solid veteran at a scarce position, don't be surprised if he's on a different team by the trade deadline.

1B Joey Votto (35)
2018 Stats: .284/.417/.419, 12 HR in 145 G

Coming off of a relatively disappointing 2018 season - in which he produced *only* 4 WAR instead of his typical 7 - the face of the franchise is still on the roster. Three factors stand in the way of trading him: 1) his no-trade clause, 2) his massive contract given his age ($25M/year for the next 5 years, until he's 40), and 3) the fact that every last Reds fan will be devastated if he's gone. That being said, if the price is right and Joey is willing to waive his no-trade clause to get a shot at competing while he's still producing, we might have to say goodbye to him. There's nothing happening just yet, but fans should consider this a warning: Joey Votto is
not guaranteed to end the 2019 season with the Reds.

2B Scooter Gennett (28)
2018 Stats: .310/.357/.490, 23 HR in 154 G

Gennett was a first-time All-Star last year, and we see no reason why he can't be one again this year. Unfortunately he will miss the first 2-3 months of the season with a particularly bad groin strain, but as soon as he gets back we expect him to go right back to being a slugger. He's another guy who might not fit in too well on a rebuilding team, and could probably fetch a nice return from a 2B-needy contender, so prepare yourself for life without him on the Reds.

In Scooter's absence, Christian Colon will be assuming 2B duties. There's not much to say about Colon, a 29 year old with -0.6 career WAR in 350 major league at-bats.

3B Eugenio Suarez (27)
2018 Stats: .283/.366/.526, 34 HR in 143 G

After an impressive breakout season in 2017, Suarez became a superstar in 2018, amassing 5 WAR and earning an All-Star nod. He's under contract for the next 7 years at an average of $10 million/year, and looks to be worth every penny. Given that he's only 27, we could see him being a key part of the next successful Reds team, so we aren't actively trying to trade him. That being said, nothing is off the table in this rebuild, so I'm not making any promises about keeping him at this point.

SS Orlando Arcia (24)
2018 Stats: .236/.268/.307, 3 HR in 119 G

You can find my thoughts on Arcia in the trades section of my last post, but the bottom line is that Arcia hasn't produced in the MLB so far despite the talent and work ethic to do so. We have high hopes for him turning it around in 2019.

LF Nomar Mazara (24)
2018 Stats: .258/.317/.436, 20 HR in 128 G

I've written about Mazara at great length in my previous post, so I don't want to repeat myself too much, but we are hoping Mazara can realize his immense potential and improve upon his middling performances from 2016-2018. If he does, he could be a long-term solution in our outfield and in the heart of our order.

CF Phil Ervin (26)
2018 Stats: .252/.324/.404, 7 HR in 78 G

Ervin is a stop-gap solution in the outfield who profiles better as a 4th outfielder. Keep an eye on this position, as it could change hands before long.

RF Scott Schebler (28)
2018 Stats: .255/.337/.439, 17 HR in 107 G

Schebler is a pretty average outfielder all-around, with no standout tool but no obvious weaknesses either. We don't necessarily see him as a long-term member of our organization, and some teams have shown a surprising amount of interest in him, so he may be gone before long.

DH Jesse Winkler (25)
2018 Stats: .299/.405/.431, 7 HR in 89 G

In case you missed the news, the NL suddenly decided just weeks before the start of the season to correct a flukey mistake it had made in 1980 and adopt the DH rule, effective immediately. This is excellent development for us, as it gives us a natural place to play Winkler, whose offensive abilities far outstrip his defensive abilities. Winkler is a superb young hitter who we see as a key member of our lineup going forward.

Rotation

SP Luis Castillo (26)
2018 Stats: 4.30 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 in 170 IP

Castillo is our de facto ace, which says more about the rest of our rotation than it does about him. While he has some nasty stuff - including his 98MPH fastball - he has a tendency to give up too many homers (1.5 HR/9 in 2018) and doesn't have a ton of major league experience (259 career IP). However, he is still relatively young and has the potential to establish himself as a star in this league. We will most likely be holding on to him throughout our rebuild.

SP Dakota Hudson (24)
2018 Stats: 2.63 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 6.3 K/9 in 27 IP

A key piece of the return we received in the Yasiel Puig trade, Hudson is an intriguing young pitcher who profiles as a long-term mid-rotation starter. His stuff isn't necessarily electrifying, but his greatest strength is avoiding homers, which is something we value immensely. At 24 years old with only 27 major league innings under his belt, we think he still has room to improve and could be a mainstay in our rotation for years to come.

SP Alex Reyes (24)
2018 Stats: N/A

The biggest wildcard of our rotation, Reyes could be our ace by 2021, or could be in the minors. He has experienced one of the more notable falls in status in recent baseball history, going from a top 10 prospect to a injury-prone flameout in two short years. We think he still has the chance to turn it around at just 24 years old.

SP Tanner Roark (32)
2018 Stats: 4.34 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 7.3 K/9 in 180 IP

Roark is an approximately league-average starter in his early 30s on an expiring contract, so his fit on our rebuilding squad is questionable at best. Unfortunately, the $10M that he's owed this year seems to be scaring away would-be suitors at the moment, but the hope is that we can find a home for him closer to the trade deadline, when injuries make contenders desperate for help and half of his salary has already been paid by us.

SP Anthony DeSclafani (28)
2018 Stats: 4.93 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 in 115 IP

DeSclafani is a serviceable back-end starter, though his tendency to give up homers is concerning (1.9 HR/9 in 2018). We will look to upgrade this spot in the coming years.

Bullpen

CL Raisel Iglesias (29)
2018 Stats: 2.38 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 in 72 IP

With his 98MPH fastball, Iglesias has become a superb reliever after initially being brought up as a starter. Closers are a luxury and they aren't always the best allocation of assets for rebuilding teams, however, so we may take a look at what we can get from him in the trade market.

RP Amir Garrett (26)
2018 Stats: 4.29 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 in 63 IP

Another converted starter, Garrett is a solid reliever who we may keep around for the foreseeable future.

RP Robert Stephenson (26)
2018 Stats: 2.87 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 10.18 K/9 in 113 IP in AAA

Yet another converted starter! Stephenson could still develop into a decent starter, but his control issues and his penchant for allowing dingers might make him better-suited to a bullpen role.

Top 5 Prospects

1. 3B Nick Senzel (23)
2018 Stats: .310/.378/.509, 6 HR, 8 SB, 1.8 WAR in 44 G in AAA

Solak is the hottest prospect in recent Reds history. The #2 overall pick in 2016 has excelled at every level, and looks like a future All-Star. He'll probably make his MLB debut this season, but fans will have to wait a bit as he recovers from a high ankle sprain that will keep him out for the first two months of the season. Once he comes back, you'll get to see a true 5-tool player with no glaring weaknesses. His tools give him the versatility to play multiple positions, so we will be sure to find a spot for him in our lineup, even with Suarez locked in as our long-term 3B. We're very excited for Senzel to join our team.

2. SP Hunter Greene (19)
2018 Stats: 4.48 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 11.7 K/9 in 68 IP in A

Greene is another exciting recent top draft pick (#2 in 2017) who is currently shelved with an injury. With his superb athleticism and ability to hit as well as pitch, we are hoping he turns into our version of Shohei Ohtani. Frustratingly, he has already had to undergo Tommy John surgery, so he will be losing the upcoming year of development. Here's hoping he can come back full-strength next year and eventually realize his immense potential as a two-way star.

3. IF/OF Nick Solak (24)
2018 Stats: .282/.384/.450, 19 HR, 21 SB, 5.3 WAR in 126 G in AA

Solak was the key piece of the return for Sonny Gray in our trade with the Rays earlier this month. His 2018 performance in AA speaks for itself in terms of his potential. The biggest question is whether he can maintain that level of power at the major league level, but regularly producing 20/20 seasons in the future isn't out of the question, while also hitting for average and playing solid defense at premium positions. He'll be starting the 2019 season at AAA but should be a fixture in our lineup for years to come after that.

4. 1B Nate Lowe (23)
2018 Stats: .330/.416/.568, 27 HR, 7.0 WAR in 130 G in A+ to AAA

Lowe was another prospect received in the Gray trade. His meteoric rise through the minors in 2018 - from A+ to AAA - is truly incredible, and our hope is that he can continue that trend in 2019. With only 110 PAs above AA under his belt, we won't be rushing him to the majors just yet and will instead be starting him off in AAA, but we'd love to see him in the majors at some point this season. He is an incredibly balanced hitter, with a rare mix of power, discipline and contact skills. As a 235 pound 1B, he doesn't provide much defensive or baserunning value, so he will need to keep producing at the plate in order to stick in this league, but we believe he has what it takes to be an elite middle-of-the-order slugger.

5. OF Taylor Trammell (21)
2018 Stats: .277/.375/.406, 8 HR, 25 SB, 3.8 WAR in 110 G in A+

Trammell is an incredible athlete with top-of-the-scale-speed and a 6'2 frame that comes with some pop. He won't ever be a 30 HR guy, but he could crack double-digit homers while racking up 20-30 steals per year and solid outfield defense. Trammell isn't likely to be a star, but his athleticism and patient approach at the plate give him the profile of a solid everyday player with some upside if he can add more power. He'll be starting the 2019 season at AA.

Team-Building Philosophy

As you might have noticed from the top prospects list above, as well as the packages received in our recent trades, I am someone who highly favours hitting over pitching when it comes to prospects. I subscribe to the philosophy of TINSTAAPP (There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect). Pitching prospects are fleeting at best, and illusions at worst.

I prefer to go for reclamation projects (e.g. Reyes) or established vets when it comes to pitchers, and build through hitting prospects, similar to Theo Epstein's Cubs rebuild. So when you see us acquire low-minors pitching prospects in trades, just know that they are more likely to be used as trade chips in the future than they are to actually pitch for the Reds.

The downside to this strategy is that star pitchers are expensive to acquire - in trades as well as free agency - and even then there's no guarantee that they stay healthy/effective. Hopefully this strategy pays off - only time will tell.

Next Update

This concludes our season preview. Check back next month for an update on how the first 4-5 weeks of the season go!

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Nick's Blog Post #3 - April 2019
April 30, 2019
11-19, 5th in NL Central, 6 GB

Here's a look at what's happened with the Reds during the first month of the 2019 season:

Team Performance

Despite the lack of expectations for this season, we managed to disappoint over the first month. The first couple weeks were especially bad, starting the seaason off with an abysmal 3-14 run before finishing off the month on a respectable 8-5 "streak." Incredibly, there are currently 3 teams in the MLB with worse records than us, and we're only 6 games back of the 1st-place Pirates within our division, so I guess things could always be worse. In fact, they may get worse before long...

For the month, our offense was pretty much average, finishing 7th in the NL in runs scored and 9th in OPS. Our pitching and defense, on the other hand, were atrocious - dead last in runs allowed, starters ERA, and defensive efficiency. In defense of our defense (pardon the pun), we've been testing some players out at different positions than they're used to (Nomar Mazara at LF instead of RF, Eugenio Suarez at 2B instead of 3B, for example) in order to improve our roster's positional versatility in the context of a low-stakes season, so the growing pains that come with the position switches are undoubtedly having an impact on our defensive and pitching numbers. That being said, we'd rather not be last place in any category, especially with teams like the Marlins continuing to exist in the NL.

Player Performance

Unsurprisingly given our team performance, there aren't a ton of notable player performances to report on this month, but I'll try to highlight a few anyway:

- OF Nomar Mazara got off to a hot start to the season, with a 1.002 OPS through the team's first 18 games. He's cooled down a bit since then, but he's still leading the team in homers with 7 and is slashing .267/.308/.525 at the end of the first month

- OF Scott Schebler has been on fire, hitting .318/.378/.542 with 6 homers in 29 games, good for a 139 OPS+ and 0.9 WAR already (extrapolating to 5 WAR over the course of a full season)

- SP Tanner Roark has surprisingly been the lone bright spot in our rotation, putting up a 83 FIP- and a 3.9 K/BB ratio in 32 innings across 6 starts. Unfortunately his traditional stats don't look quite so hot (partially due to an inflated .400 BABIP), with a 6.06 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. Incredibly, he's still been our best starter, which should give you a good sense of just how abysmal our pitching has been this month.

A much easier task than highlighting the best performers is singling out the worst performers. Hopefully these guys read this and are motivated to perform better next month:

- DH Jesse Winkler has not made the most of our newfound DH spot, hitting a paltry .236/.291/.285 in 134 plate appearances. That's good for a 53 OPS+. At that rate, we might as well just forefeit the DH slot and just keep using our pitchers to hit there. I'm sure he'll turn it around, though.

- IF Eugenio Suarez has not looked like himself lately, with just a .204/.331/.327 slash line (75 OPS+) in his first 136 plate appearances of the season. He has managed 4 homers though, and his OBP is still pretty solid. Let's just chalk this up to being distracted with learning to play 2B, and hope he gets back to his All-Star ways soon.

- SP Alex Reyes has been an unmitigated disaster to start the season, with an 11.22 ERA and just 21 IP in 5 starts. He's walking over 6 batters per 9 innings with a 2.22 WHIP, which is definitely not what we were hoping for when we acquired him at the start of the season. We'll be monitoring his performance closely going forward, and might have to send him down to the minors to rebuild his confidence if things don't get better soon.

- SP Dakota Hudson hasn't been much better than his former Cardinals teammate Reyes, posting a 8.78 ERA and a 1.99 WHIP in 27 IP across 6 starts. Luckily, the recent return of Alex Wood from injury will bump Hudson from the rotation into a long relief role, so he will be given a chance to work out whatever kinks are plaguing him in a lower-leverage role.

- SP Luis Castillo, our de facto ace, hasn't quite lived up to his title. He's put up a 7.18 ERA with a 1.63 WHIP in 26 IP across 6 starts. What's more, he managed to get himself suspended for 6 games in a fight with Justin Turner in the first inning of an 8-0 loss to the Dodgers. I would have rather he just kept pitching instead of making our bullpen go 8 innings, but I guess it gave Reds fans a highlight worth watching, so maybe it wasn't a bad move. Just kidding - it was a terrible lapse in judgement, and Castillo has been reprimanded.

Prospect Performance

It's probably a bit early to be looking at how our prospects are doing, but this update has been pretty glum so far, so hopefully this will brighten the mood a bit - even if it means looking at small sample sizes that shouldn't be read too far into:

- IF/OF Nick Solak (24, AAA) has had a great start to his season, slashing .315/.426/.461 in 110 plate appearances. Following his 4.8 WAR season at AA, he's on pace to put up 4.6 WAR this season at AAA, which is a very promising sign for his development.

- 1B Nate Lowe (23, AAA) has been mashing to start the season, with a .270/.378/.460 slash line to go along with 4 homers in 119 PAs. He looks like he's just about MLB-ready, and could be called up before long.

- IF/OF Nick Senzel (23, AAA) has been out with a high ankle sprain all season, but he's expected to be ready to play by mid-May. We're incredibly excited for our top prospect to return to action.

- C Tyler Stephenson (22, AA) is our top catching prospect and he's been looking great to start the season, with a 185 OPS+ and 4 HR so far. He's already put up 1.1 WAR in just 20 games! We're still going to take things slow but honestly he might earn a promoton to AAA by the time we hit the trade deadline.

Trades

As you'll come to see, I like to stay very busy in the trade market, and this past month was no exception. Here's a quick rundown of the trades we made since Opening Day:

Reds receive OF Yordan Alvarez (21), SP Corbin Martin (23), 1B J.J. Matijevic (23), OF Myles Straw (24), RP Erasmo Pinales (24)
Astros receive C Tucker Barnhart (28), RP Jared Hughes (33), minor league filler

We always knew that trading away Barnhart was a bombshell that negatively impacted the fans as well as the clubhouse, so it was not something we took lightly. That being said, we couldn't pass up this opportunity to acquire such an attractive package of prospects.

Our scouting team sees Alvarez as one of the most complete hitting prospects in baseball, whereas the industry as a whole sees his ceiling as being a league-average hitter, so we wanted to capitalize on this discrepancy in views while it lasted. On top of that, we picked up an elite pitching prospect in Martin, who has the potential to develop 4 "plus" pitches including a fastball that touches 97MPH. Matijevic looks like a future 30 homer slugger with solid baserunning skills and defense as a first baseman. Straw is a leadoff-type hitter with incredible speed and solid bat control, discipline and outfield defense that will hopefully combine to compensate for his complete lack of power. Pinales has a wipeout slider that has carried him to a career 10 K/9 and could be a high-leverage reliever in our bullpen of the future.

To help lessen the immediate on-field impact of the trade, we picked up C Max Stassi off waivers (from the Astros, coincidentally) just before the trade was made. His combination of power and skills behind the plate make him a solid stop-gap option for the rest of the season.

I know losing Barnhart hurts, Reds fans, but it will all be worth it in a few years when Alvarez is making All-Star teams.

Reds receive RP Kelvin Herrera (29), RP Tyler Johnson (23), RP Ian Hamilton (23)
White Sox receive RP Raisel Iglesias (29), 1B Nick Longhi (23)

I realize that this one might not make a ton of sense at first blush, so hear me out. Iglesias is a solid reliever, but he's incredibly expensive - he's owed $24 million over the next 3 years. That's a lot of money for a rebuilding team to be paying for a non-elite reliever. He started the season off with 3 losses and a blown save in his first 5 appearances with us, which admittedly may have been a factor in this decision.

In return we received Herrera, a similar-quality reliever who is also similarly expensive, but is only under contract for the next 2 years rather than 3. So we're likely to get similar production for a similar cost, but without the payroll hit in 2022, when we will hopefully be competitive. Herrera's shorter contract could also make him easier to move to a contender closer to the trade deadline. In addition, we picked up two promising young high-minors relievers who could end up being the two best pitchers in this trade when it's all said and done.

Reds receive CF Albert Almora (25)
Cubs receive LF Derek Dietrich (29)

This one was an easy decision for us. Almora is a former top-100 prospect who hasn't quite lived up to the hype (are you noticing a pattern in our strategy yet?), while Dietrich is a bat-first 29 year old who has some pop but is otherwise fairly unremarkable and didn't really have a spot in our lineup. Almora is also a great clubhouse guy who will hopefully seamlessly slot into the leadership role recently vacated by Barnhart.

Reds receive SP Kevin Gausman (28), RP Jacob Webb (25)
Braves receive 2B Christian Colon (29)

The Braves are one of the most pitching-rich teams in the league, and Gausman is undeniably overpaid at his $9.35M salary, so it makes some sense that they would be willing to give him up so easily. We see this as a low-cost move with some upside - we have plenty of budget room after moving so many vets before the season started, and Gausman could become a great trade chip at the deadline if he performs well this season. We also got Webb in this trade, a young reliever with nasty stuff who could be a key piece in our bullpen before long.

In exchange, all we had to give up was Colon, a quad-A caliber infielder who we replaced in our lineup with waiver pickup Greg Garcia. Like I said, this is a low-cost move with some upside, and we were more than willing to absorb Gausman's salary for it.

Next Update

That's all for this month. Check back next month for an update on how we do in May, plus any roster moves we make (don't be surprised if the exodus of our veterans continues...)

[vigilante225]

Nick's Blog Post #4 - May 2019
May 31, 2019
21-36, 5th in NL Central, 12.5 GB

There's a lot to tackle after a busy month of May, so we'll jump right into this one!

Team Performance

Our underperformance continued in May, with a 10-17 record in the month. We have slid further back behind the rest of our division, which isn't a surprise, but it's a little depressing to see the other 4 teams in the division separated by 2 games while we're 10 games behind 4th place. At least we're not the absolute worst - the Royals and White Sox are both under .300!

Our offense has looked alright, ranking 5th in the NL home runs thus far and 7th in wOBA. Our pitching and defensive numbers are still ugly across the board, however, as we are ranked last in just about every relevant category at this point in the season, even despite the return of SP Alex Wood (more on him later).

Player Performance

Despite the lackluster performance by the team as a whole, there were a few individual bright spots in May:

- IF Eugenio Suarez got back to his old self after struggling a bit to start the season, mashing .293/.393/.606 with 8 homers in the month of May

- DH Jesse Winkler also turned it around in May, hitting a solid .319/.371/.451 for the month

- SS Orlando Arcia started to justify our belief in him with a respectable .276/.344/.460 slash line along with 4 homers over the course of the month

- SP Alex Wood came back from the lower back injury that delayed his season debut until May and delivered some solid performances, including an 8 inning shutout of the Pirates. He went 3-2 with a 3.82 ERA and a 2.8 K/BB ratio in his 6 starts.

On the flip side, a few of our players weren't so hot in May:

- CF Albert Almora and C Max Stassi both struggled mightily with OPS figures below .550 for both. While they weren't expensive to acquire (free, actually, in Stassi's case) it is still disappointing to see them flounder like this. We'll give them a bit of time to turn it around but at some point we might have to cut bait.

- SP Tanner Roark came crashing back to earth after a hot start to the season, posting an ugly 7.04 ERA with a paltry 1.4 K/BB ratio in 6 starts, clearing 6 innings in just one of those outings.

- SP Kevin Gausman was nothing short of horrific in May, "pitching" his way to a 9.14 ERA with 6 HR allowed in just 21 innings across 5 starts in the month. No performance encapsulates his May better than his loss against the Brewers midway through the month, when he gave up 6 runs on 7 hits - including 2 homers - and was yanked before the end of the 2nd inning. We may need to replace him in the rotation if he doesn't turn things around fast.

- Unfortunately, 1B Joey Votto and OF Scott Schebler both missed time during the month with minor injuries. Luckily neither one is major, and both are expected back by mid-June, but this just serves as another reminder that veterans are ticking time-bombs whose trade value can evaporate in an instant, so it's probably best for us to cash in our remaining veterans for prospects sooner rather than later, before it's too late.

Prospect Performance

A bunch of our prospects are looking great so far this year, and our minor league teams are faring a lot better than our major league team has. Our Triple-A affiliate is sitting pretty at 31-24, while our High-A affiliate is leading the league with a 34-19 record. In terms of individual player performance, quite a few of our prospects have been shining bright recently:

- Our top prospect IF/OF Nick Senzel (23, AAA) got a late start to his season due to a nagging ankle sprain, but didn't skip a beat once he got back on the field. In just 103 PAs he's already made a huge impact, slashing a whopping .396/.447/.582 with 4 homers. He doesn't have much left to prove in the minors, although we have been getting him reps at CF to get him ready to help improve our positional diversity across our lineup once he makes it to the majors.

- IF Tommy Edman (24, AAA), acquired from the Cardinals before the season, had a very impressive month - he slashed .356/.384/.492 with 3 homers despite not typically having much power in his game. This is certainly a positve development that we hope continues.

- Speedy OF Taylor Trammell (21, AA) was great in May, hitting .287/.391/.435 with 3 HR and 6 SB. Any prospect doing that at AA would be impressive, but it's especially notable given Trammell's relative youth. If he keeps this up he could be in Triple-A before his 22nd birthday!

- C Tyler Stephenson (22, AA) caught fire in May with a .379/.426/.563 slash line to go with 4 HR in just 94 PAs. He's not the biggest name in our system but he has a shot at being our catcher of the future, especially if he can continue to perform like this.

- OF Bren Spillane (22, A) hit well during the past month, compiling a .307/.389/.553 slash line with 7 homers in May. We'll be moving him up to High-A to start the month of June.

- SP Aaron Ashby (20, A) had a great month of May, posting a 1.14 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with a 3.1 K/BB ratio in 23 IP across 5 starts.

- RP Ian Hamilton (23, AAA), one of our top relief prospects, turned in a great performance last month, pitching to a 2.92 ERA with an eye-popping 15.0 K/BB ratio in 12.1 IP. Don't be surprised if you see him pitching in the majors later this year!

Trades

It was a quieter month for us on the trade front, but no month is complete without at least one or two minor trades! Here's the moves we made in May:

Reds receive OF Luis Gonzalez (23), RP Zach Thompson (25), RP Ryan Burr (24), RP Jose Ruiz (24)
White Sox receive SP Jacques Pucheu (22), SP Alexis Diaz (22)

Our strategy of converting minor league pitchers into solid position player prospects began this month, starting with this acquisition of Gonzalez. We see Gonzalez as a leadoff-type hitter with a bit of pop, who is also a plus defender at all 3 outfield positions with good speed and baserunning skills. He's at Double-A this year and could be in the majors within a few years.

We also managed to pick up 3 high-minors relievers with some potential. Burr in particular looks like a future high-leverage bullpen arm, with 3 solid pitches and decent control.

All we had to give up in return were two low-ceiling minor league starters. We see this as an absolute win!

Reds receive SS/2B Nick Gordon (23) and OF DaShawn Keirsey (22)
Twins receive OF Phil Ervin (26), SP Ricky Karcher (21), SP Stephen Kelller (21), SP Jhon De Jesus (22), RP Tanner Allison (24)

Another prospect-focused trade, this one involved a solid major league outfielder in Ervin as well as a couple of low-minors starters. This trade was fairly costly but we believe the return justified the cost.

Gordon - the younger brother of Dee Gordon - is a superb middle infield prospect, with superb athleticism to go along with great baserunning and defensive instincts. His potential at the plate also grades out as above-average, with a little bit of power to go along with impressive on-base skills. He made it to Triple-A last year as a 22 year old but had some struggles there, so we don't expect him to make it to the majors in 2019 but could potentially see him get there next year.

Keirsey is an intriguing 5-tool prospect who projects to be an above-average everyday outfielder. He has a very projectable frame (6'2, 195 pounds) but has a ways to go before he's big league ready, given that he's never taken an at-bat above High-A.

League News

- Astros SS Carlos Correa just finished an incredible 35 game hit streak, tying him with Chase Utley and Ty Cobb, among others, for 11th longest of all time.

- Free agent RP Craig Kimbrel finally decided on a team, signing with the Indians for $7.9M on a 1 year contract. SP Dallas Keuchel also found a new home, signing for 1 year and $15.2M with the Mets.

Next Update

The best day of the year for rebuilding teams is coming up - Draft Day! It's just a few days away, and we're in a great spot with the #7 overall pick. I look forward to profiling our draft haul in the next update, along with the typical monthly performance updates. Til next time!

[vigilante225]

Nick's Blog Post #5 - June 2019
June 30, 2019
28-54, 5th in NL Central, 23 GB

Here's a look at what happened during a very busy June - apologies in advance for the massive post!

Team Performance

If you thought we played poorly in May, just wait til you hear what happened in June! Our 7-18 record for the month pretty much speaks for itself. We now sit 23 games back of the first-place Brewers, with a the 2nd worst win-loss record and third worst run differential (-127) in the MLB. The only team that is definitively worse than us is the White Sox, with their 23-60 record and an incredible -182 run differential. Hopefully their miserable performance will help keep us out of the national headlines.

Somehow we still rank 5th in the NL in home runs, and 4th in base running value. Just about every other category is a nightmare, though, so the less that's said about that, the better.

Our one notable series worth mentioning was the recent 3-game series against a very good Cubs team, which we managed to win 2-1 (never mind that the run differential in our 2 wins was a total of 3, while we lost the other game by 9). Before that, we hadn't won a series since we swept 3 games against the A's in mid-May, so it was a nice morale-booster to beat a division rival twice in a row in front of our (rapidly diminishing) home crowd.

Player Performance

Hot

- IF Eugenio Suarez stayed hot with 7 homers and a .478 slugging % in June. He's currently in second place in the All-Star voting race at 2B, and is the only member of the Reds with a shot at getting in via fan vote this year, so don't forget to vote for him daily!

- DH Jesse Winkler finally showed some signs of life, slashing .278/.360/.412 with 3 homers in June. We've also started playing him in the outfield more regularly, where he is decidedly below-average but slowly improving.

- CL Amir Garrett had a solid month, converting 4 of his 5 save opportunities and allowing 0 runs in 7 of his 9 appearances, while striking out 13 batters in 9 innings. It would be nice if we could get him more than 5 save opportunities per month, but that's life as a closer on a rebuilding team I suppose.

Not

- 2B Scooter Gennett returned from a nasty groin strain that kept him out all season to this point, which is great news - however, in his 10 games this season, he's managed a paltry .225/.244/.325 slash line without any homers. Let's hope he turns things around quickly, especially with the trade deadline coming up...

- OF Nomar Mazara was borderline unplayable this past month, with a putrid .157/.245/.326 line in 102 PAs. I miss the April version of him that made it into the monthly update as a hot performer.

- SP Alex Reyes finally broke my spirit, forcing us to send him down to AAA following a disastrous 4 starts in which he put up an astronomical 15.43 ERA and a 2.93 WHIP in just 14 innings. His ERA on the season is now 10.59, with an 0-8 record and just 60 innings across 14 starts. It might still be too soon to tell, but making that trade for him doesn't look like such a great move right now...

Prospect Performance

- OF Yordan Alvarez (22, AAA) continues to look like an absolute stud, slashing .356/.444/.633 with 5 HR in 108 PAs in June. He has a 170 OPS+ on the season in AAA, despite only turning 22 a few days ago. The future is bright for him!

- 1B Nate Lowe (23, AAA) also continued to impress in June, launching 7 homers with a .310/.410/.610 slash line in 117 PAs.

- OF Luis Gonzalez (23, AA) sizzled in June, with a .905 OPS and 4 stolen bases in 113 PAs. We've been trying him out in CF to see if his athleticism and defensive instincts can cut it there, but his bat could still make him a major-league caliber corner outfielder if not.

- OF Bren Spillane (22, A+), our 3rd round pick in 2018, has been impressive recently with a .296/.410/.520 slash line and 6 homers in 117 PAs in June. He's been great all season and could be in AA by the end of the season.

- SP Aaron Ashby (21, A) baffled hitters in June, putting up a sparkling 1.82 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 29 innings across 6 starts. He's been the best-performing pitcher in our minor league system, so we're promoting him to High-A starting in July.

Draft

- The Orioles used the 1st overall pick on 22-year old college pitcher Juan Castillo, who looks like an absolute stud. He hasn't signed yet, so that's a situation to keep an eye on.

- We used our first round pick (7th overall) on 19 year old high school OF/3B Tim Hinkle. He isn't super athletic, but he has a great arm so defensively he'll be solid in a corner position. His bat, though, is something else - our scouting team sees him as having the potential to become something similar to Justin Turner as a hitter - a .300/.400/.550 type hitter who could be a perennial All-Star. Given that he's just 19 years old, there's a long way to go in his development before he gets there, but we definitely have high hopes for him.

- Our 2nd round pick was Mike Caldwell, an 18 year old starter with the potential to develop nasty stuff. Given my stated strategy in a previous post, it's unlikely that he ever pitches in a Reds uniform, but I think he'll have a good amount of trade value if we develop him properly over the next few years.

- Our 3rd round pick was Rodolfo Pacheco, an 18 year old 2nd baseman. He's got some exciting tools, and a great makeup, so we could see him turning into a solid major leaguer one day.

- Our 4th round pick was unfortunately wasted, as we were not able to successfully sign the player we picked. 18 year old OF Sean Thornburg was a first-round talent who fell in the draft due to signability concerns, and we decided to risk our 4th round pick on him. Regrettably we were not able to agree to terms with him so he will be heading to college.

Trades

We made 7 trades in June, so I will try to be brief in my write-up of each trade. Hopefully you can make it all the way through this update before the July update comes out!

Reds receive C KJ Harrison (21)
Nationals receive SP Kevin Gausman (28), cash

We made a move here to address the biggest hole in our minor league system - the lack of catcher prospects - while giving up very little. Ownership probably didn't love this move, as we retained 90% of Gausman's $9 million salary, but we're still well below budget and his contract comes off the books at the end of the season. Harrison has the potential to be an average receiver with an above-average bat, and a ton of power. He's in Single-A right now and has been absolutely crushing it there so we may move him up in the near future. Not a bad return for half a year of a mediocre starting pitcher.

Reds receive C Domingo Leyba (23)
Diamondbacks receive SS Miguel Alejandro Hernandez (20)

We heard through the grapevine that the D-backs were open to moving Leyba, who we see as a near-ready prospect who can be a serviceable regular or a super-utility infielder within a few years, so we pounced. In exchange, we gave up a Rookie-level infield prospect who profiles as a lesser version of Leyba in the eyes of our scouts. Leyba is crushing Double-A right now and could be in the majors by early next season.

Reds receive 3B Bobby Dalbec (23)
Diamondbacks receive SP Tanner Roark (32), cash

This trade came at an incredibly low price from a baseball standpoint, but pretty high financial cost. We're covering 100% of Roark's remaining salary for the season, which is considerable given that he's making $10 million this year. We think it's worth it though, because Dalbec looks like the second coming of Joey Gallo. Usually I prefer to trade for guys who can hit their way on base rather than sluggers with low batting averages, but Dalbec's power was irresistible, especially at this price. Right now he's slashing .314/.398/.558 with 6 homers in just 20 games at Double-A since the trade, so he is showing some ability to get hits, even if it is a small sample size.

Reds receive SP Cionel Perez (23), 1B Seth Beer (22)
Astros receive SP Alex Wood (28), RP David Hernandez (34)

Some might see this as an underwhelming return for a solid young veteran pitcher like Wood, but keep in mind that he's hitting free agency in a couple of months. Plus, the guys we got back are solid - Perez looks like he could be a solid mid-rotation starter, and he's already in the majors pitching fairly well at just 23 years old, while Beer was a first round pick in 2018 who looks like he could be a middle-of-the-order slugger sometime soon, albeit with limited defensive or baserunning value.

Reds receive 1B Dominic Smith (24), RP Bryce Montes De Oca (23)
Mets receive 2B Manny Jefferson (24), 2B Dewins Verbel (19), OF Matt Szczur (29)

Smith is a post-hype prospect with questions around his character - in other words, the perfect buy-low candidate for a rebuilding team like us. We still think he has the tools to be an above-average hitter in the MLB, and will give him the opportunity to prove it. It cost us very little - Szczur was a waiver pickup from earlier in the season, while Jefferson and Verbel both have some potential but we don't think either of them are likely to become valuable major leaguers. We also managed to extract Montes De Oca in the trade, a high-upside power pitcher whose 100MPH fastball could be coming to a major league bullpen near you before long.

Reds receive C Meibrys Viloria (22), OF Diego Hernandez (18), OF Brewer Hicklen (23), SP Jackson Kowar (22)
Royals receive SP Lucas Sims (25), 2B Alejo Lopez (23), OF Miles Gordon (21), 3B Brantley Bell (24)

Reds receive SP Jonathan Loaisiga (24), SP Garret Whitlock (23), 2B Dionys Vallejo (19), OF Antonio Cabello (18), OF Anthony Alexander Garcia (18)
Yankees receive SP Jose Rafael Lopez (25), OF Aristides Aquino (25), OF Narciso Crook (23)

These two prospects-for-prospects trades may seem a bit odd, so let me provide some context. Lucas Sims and Jose Rafael Lopez were the two most valuable pieces we gave up here, which may seem odd given that they're both 25 years old and still in the low-minors. However, both have been destroying the competition (2.56 ERA and 13.3 K/9 for Sims and 1.73 ERA and 8.0 K/9 for Lopez) but both have been in High-A this year and weren't really seen by us as high-upside prospects heading into the season. However, I guess these teams saw something they liked in these performances, and were willing to pay up for them. I won't look a gift horse in the mouth - these trades are somehwat reminiscent of the Trea Turner and Joe Ross for Steven Souza trade that worked out great for the team that was trading a relatively unremarkable prospect who had a career year as a 25 year old in the minors. Let's hope I'm right!

There were a lot of prospects that came back to us in these two trades, so here's a quick profile of each one:

- Meibrys Viloria (22): combines solid receiving skills, contact and plate discipline with a decent amount of power, has been crushing Double-A, instantly becomes one of our top two or three catching prospects.
- OF Diego Hernandez (18): lots of development to do but has the talent to become one of the most complete hitters in the league, according to our scouts; currently in Rookie league.
- OF Brewer Hicklen (23): incredible speed, 6'2 frame gives him potential to develop elite power along with good approach at the plate - could be an above-average 5 tool outfielder but has struggled in Double-A this year; currently in High-A.
- SP Jackson Kowar (22): doing well at Double-A, has 3 pitches including an 80-grade changeup; might give up a decent amount of homers but looks like a future mid-rotation arm.
- SP Jonathan Loaisiga (24): the Yankees have been trying to move him all season but we like his potential; has 3 plus pitches, impressive velocity (can hit 98MPH) and doesn't give up many walks; home runs are a weakness but should still be an average starter or better in his prime; currently in Triple-A but could be in the majors by next year.
- SP Garret Whitlock (23): potential to be a league average starter, with 3 solid pitches, can reach 95MPH; has had success at Double-A this season.
- 2B Dionys Vallejo (19): has the potential to become a well-rounded hitter with solid defense at 2B or 3B, but lacks the athleticism to play SS; lottery ticket type prospect in Rookie league.
- OF Antonio Cabello (18): similar to Hernandez (profiled above), looks like a potential All-Star but still very raw; played well enough in Rookie league last year to earn a spot in Single-A this season.
- OF Anthony Alexander Garcia (18): another lottery ticket prospect, doesn't have quite as much talent or potential as Cabello or Hernandez but still could become an above-average outfielder and hitter if he reaches his ceiling; currently in Single-A.

Next Update

I know this was a long update, but be forewarned - next month's could be even longer! In just a few days the international free agent signing period will begin, and we expect to be quite active in that market as we look to continue to build up our farm. After that, of course, is the trading deadline at the end of the month - we expect it to be quite spicy for us, given that we still have a handful of veterans on our roster - including the impending FA Scooter Gennett.

Til next time!

[vigilante225]

Nick's Blog Post #6 - July 2019
July 31, 2019
39-68, 5th in NL Central, 28 GB

As expected, July was a very busy month for us, so let's get right into it!

Team Performance

Given how the rest of the season has gone, July was actually pretty good from an on-field perspective. We went 11-14, good for a .440 win % - that's almost .500! In all seriousness, you'd have to consider this month a success. We won 3 whole series (all against division rivals!), and we even ended the month on a 4 game win streak. I'm proud of how the team performed, especially with all the roster turnover that went on throughout the month - but we'll get to that later.

Player Performance

- OF/DH Jesse Winkler continued to fight his way towards a league-average statline, putting up a .453 OBP and a 139 wRC+ in July. He now has an OPS+ of 99 for the season, which doesn't sound impressive for a bat-first guy who is mainly playing at DH, but it's a big step up from where he was earlier in the season

- IF Eugenio Suarez continued to play like the All-Star he is in July, with a juicy .387/.442/.656 slash line and 6 HR in 104 PAs

- In a shocking turn of events, SP Alex Reyes found his groove and became a positive contributor in July. He handled his demotion to Triple-A like a champ, putting up a 1.02 ERA across 5 starts. That was enough to convince us to bring him back up, and he rewarded our trust wtih 2 solid starts in the majors to close out the month, only allowing 4 runs over 10+ innings. Don't quite call it a comeback just yet - his ERA on the season is still 9.51, and he's walked nearly as many batters as he's struck out - but this has certainly been a positive development in Reyes's otherwise bleak season

Prospect Performance

- 1B Nate Lowe (24, AAA) continued to dominate Triple-A, slashing a ridiculous .425/.500/.708 to go along with 7 homers in 124 PAs. That was enough to win him the International League Player of the Month award for July. He's looking like a stud!

- OF Luis Gonzalez (23, AAA) was promoted to Triple-A at the end of June and hasn't missed a beat, posting a .340/.409/.485 line in his first 26 games at that level.

- SP Corbin Martin (23, AAA) had a solid month, with a 2.89 ERA and 3.46 FIP in 5 starts while striking out a batter per inning. He's been a bit above league-average on the season as a 23 year old in Triple-A, and we're hoping to see him in the majors next year.

- OF Anthony Alexander Garcia (18, A+) absolutely tore the cover off the ball in July, slashing .394/.454/.660 with 6 homers in 108 PAs despite still being a month away from his 19th birthday. He could be on track to be a star before long if he keeps this up.

- Similar to Luis Gonzalez, SP Aaron Ashby (21, A+) was just promoted at the start of July and continued to excel in his new environment. He has a stellar 2.35 ERA in 30+ innings across 6 starts, with a solid 3.4 K/BB ratio and miniscule 1.08 WHIP.

International Free Agency

This year's international amateur free agent crop was particularly deep, and we made sure to be significant participants in the race for talent. We picked up 3 high-upside teenagers from the Dominical who will be joining our international complex:

- 16 year old SS Victor Reynaldo Gonzalez was signed for $2.3 million. He looks like he could become a 5-tool shortstop with enormous power and contact skills to go along with superb defensive instincts

- Jean Perez is a 17 year old 3B who looks like he could develop into a solidly above-average major leaguer. We ponied up $1.7 million for him.

- 16 year old outfielder Luis Cornelio Perez was signed for a reasonable $750k, and looks like he has the potential to become a well-rounded regular in the outfield.

Trades

As you might have already guessed if you have been following along throughout the season, we stayed very active in the trade market leading up to the deadline. In fact, we made 13 trades in July, which I have to imagine would have to be a record of some sort.

There's so much to say about them that I will be running through them in an entirely separate post - stay tuned!

[vigilante225]

Nick's Blog Post #7 - 2019 Trade Deadline
July 31, 2019

As mentioned in my last post, we made a (presumably) unprecedented 13 trades in the month of May. Not every one was a blockbuster - but some were! Here's a rundown of each deal we did leading up to the deadline:

Major Trades

Reds receive: SP Darwinzon Hernandez (22), 3B Michael Chavis (23), SS Antoni Flores (18), SP Mike Shawaryn (24)
Red Sox receive: 2B Scooter Gennett (29), CF Albert Almora (25), SP A.J. Cole (27)

The writing was on the wall (and on this blog!) when it came to Scooter's time in Cincinnati - as a 29 year old impending free agent coming off an All-Star year at a position where we have a lot of prospect depth, there was no realistic scenario in which we were bringing him back next season. Given that context, I think we did very well for ourselves in this deal. We had to give up Almora - a decently young player at a premium position - which hurt a bit, but he hadn't been producing much for us and I am confident that we will be able to more than replace his production next season. We also gave up Cole, a mid-season waiver pickup who gave us some solid innings but was never part of our long-term plans. In order to grease the wheels, we retained 85% of Scooter's remaining salary for the season, but given the amount we've slashed off the payroll throughout the year it really wasn't too much of an issue for us.

The key piece of the package we received in return is Hernandez, a highly advanced 22 year old starter who is already holding his own in Triple A. He's got a plus-plus fastball that reaches 97 MPH, along with a superb curveball and a decent changeup. He's a big-time strikeout guy, and if he can get his walks under control, he has the potential to be an All-Star. We'll likely see him in the majors by next season.

Chavis is a bat-first, near-ready prospect with the potential to be a valuable middle-of-the-order hitter with some pop. We have a number of prospects just like him, though, so we didn't necessarily acquire him with the intention of keeping him - but more on that later.

Flores is a very raw 18 year old but looks like he has the tools to be a plus fielder at shortstop with above-average hitting.

Shawaryn is a high-minors SP with 4 solid pitches and a high floor, though he looks like his ceiling is that of a 3rd or 4th starter.

Reds receive: 1B/OF Ryan McMahon (24), 3B John Cresto (22), RP Reid Humphreys (24)
Rockies receive: OF Scott Schebler (28), C Max Stassi (28), OF Brian Goodwin (28)

One could reasonably argue that we lost this trade - Schebler is a league average (or better) outfielder with 3 years of control remaining, and the other two players we gave up are cheap, solid bench pieces (although they came at no cost to us, as waiver wire pickups, in our defense) - in other words, the kind of cheap, controllable talent that you hope to see your prospects turn into. However, we are currently in the business of acquiring assets with upside, and when it comes to upside, there is no debate that we gained more upside than we gave up.

At the time of the trade in mid-July, McMahon had about 450 major league PAs under his belt with a career OPS of around .650. However, we love his tools and his approach at the plate, and think he can turn into a star. So far, 14 games into his Reds career, he's done his best to prove us right with a 1.017 OPS and 7 home runs. Obviously he's unlikely to sustain that level of production, but it hints at the upside that comes with acquiring a player like him.

We also picked up an intriguing prospect in the deal in Cresto, a 22 year old 3B/OF who has the potential to develop extreme power and a good feel for hitting at the plate. His discipline is a bit questionable, with a penchant for strikeouts, but otherwise he looks like a superb prospect. He'll be finishing out the season with our Single-A affiliate.

The third player we received, Humphreys, is an intriguing bullpen arm with a 98 MPH fastball and consistently huge strikeout rates throughout his minors career.

Reds receive: SS Nicolas Torres (19), SP Spencer Howard (22), C Edgar Cabral (23), RP Trevor Bettencourt (24), RP Luke Leftwich (25)
Phillies receive: 3B Michael Chavis (23), C Mark Kolozsvary (23)

Remember when I said we didn't intend to keep Chavis when we acquired him from Boston? Well, just a few days later we found a landing spot for him, shipping him to Philadelphia for a bevy of exciting prospects who aren't as close to the majors as Chavis. The only other piece we had to give up was Kolozsvary, a low-minors prospect who we don't see as having much potential.

Torres looks like an incredibly exciting prospect - a speed demon who could potentially develop the contact skills to hit leadoff, with the defensive chops to be a plus defender at second base.

Howard looks like he hast the potential to end up being the best player in this trade. A 2017 2nd round pick, he's got a 5-pitch repertoire and enough command and control to be a #2 or #3 starter one day. He's already 23 and still in High-A, and he's not a huge strikeout guy, so it's not a guarantee that he'll reach his ceiling, but the potential is definitely there.

Cabral is an excellent receiver with the potential to become a league-average hitter, which is a rare and valuable combination.

Bettencourt and Leftwich are both righty bullpen arms who look like they could become solid high-leverage relievers if they reach their potential - especially Bettencourt, who has a nasty curveball and two other solid pitches.

Reds receive: IF Joe Dunand (23), RP Julian Fernandez (24), RP Tommy Eveld (25), RP Dylan Lee (24)
Marlins receive: RP Zach Duke (36)

From our perspetive, I think this trade made a ton of sense - Duke is a solid lefty reliever who was having a good season with us, and as a 36 year old impending free agent he didn't really belong on our team. I think it made total sense to trade him, and it also made sense that another team was willing to give up an interesting prospect and a few young minor league relievers for him. What doesn't make sense is that the team that was willing to give up the most for him was the Marlins - the one NL team with a worse record than us! What were they thinking? No idea! Whatever their reasoning, I just know that I am happy that they felt the need to do this deal!

Dunand looks like Eugenio Suarez-lite - a well-rounded hitter with decent speed and defensive abilities at the hot corner. He's been playing well this year at Double-A, although he is already nearly 24 years old and the rest of the industry doesn't appear to be as high on him as we are. Even still, he is an intriguing prospect, and came to us at very little cost.

Fernandez looks like he could be an absolute monster of a reliever, if he can just figure out how to get his walks under control. His fastball touches 101MPH, and he has a decent curveball and changeup to go along with it. He's currently in Triple-A, along with Lee, who is a lefty with some potential of his own. Eveld, meanwhile, is already in the majors with us, and looks like he'll be a solid middle reliever in our bullpen for a long time to come.

Reds receive: SS Eddys Leonard (18), SP Jim Goodwin (23), 3B Jeans Garcia (18), OF Yunior Garcia (17), RP Shea Spitzbarth (24)
Dodgers receive: 1B Joey Votto (35), RP Wandy Peralta (27)

Sorry to bury the lede here - i was trying to keep things chronological - but yes, it's true: the Joey Votto era is officially over in Cincinnati. As a 35 year old who is owed $25 million per year for the next 4 seasons after this one, his presence on our rebuilding team didn't make a ton of sense. We wanted to give him the chance to compete, and when we found a competitive team that was willing to take on his full salary AND give up some top-tier prospects for him, we couldn't pass up the opportunity. Some might say we sold low on him given that he's on pace for his lowest full-season WAR total since his age-24 season way back in '08, but we see this as a risk-management move - he's not getting any younger, and injuries plus age could make this level of production the new normal for him going forward. In any case, we still managed to bring back some elite prospects and we won't be paying a dime of his salary, so I consider this a solid deal for us - even if it does hurt to see the face of the franchise leave without ever making it to the World Series with us.

Leonard is the main prize here, and he could really be a star. He's only 18 years old and still in Rookie league, so I don't want to get ahead of myself here, but he looks like he could be the next Carlos Correa if he puts it all together.

Goodwin is a hyper-athletic two-way player who we see as having more of a future on the mound. He was the 50th pick in the draft last month, and looks like he could develop 4 above-average pitches including a fastball that touches 98MPH.

Jeans and Yunior Garcia (no relation) are both raw prospects with high potential. Yunior is especially intriguing, as we think he has the athleticism and ability to play centerfield.

Spitzbarth is a high-minors reliever with 3 solid pitches and decent control, although he does have a habit of giving up homers.

Reds receive: SS Nico Hoerner (22), CF Cole Roederer (19), SP Yovanny Cruz (19), SP Cory Abbot (23)
Cubs receive: OF Taylor Trammell (21), SS Jonathan India (22)

This was a rare high-profile trade that involved 0 major leaguers, but a bunch of top prospects. We are not as high on Trammell and India as the general industry seems to be, so when the Cubs approached us about a Trammell-for-Hoerner swap, we decided to pounce on the opportunity to upgrade our farm, and ended up make the deal even bigger. Trammell looks like he'll be a great leadoff-hitter type player, and he's been doing great at Double-A this season, but we don't see him as having the defensive abilities to stick at center field (despite his 80-grade speed) and so his low-power, high-contact game loses its value in our eyes when it needs to be played in a corner outfield spot. India is a similar story - his bat profiles well at shortstop, but we don't think his defense there would be good enough to play him there. As a result, we were willing to let these guys go for the right price, and in this trade we feel that the price was more than right!

Hoerner is the complete package - his above-average speed and defensive abilities will allow him to play shortstop in the majors, while his bat looks like it will be good enough to play at just about any position. Right now he doesn't have much power, but his 6'1 frame projects to result in league-average power once he grows into it. His main skill is his contact, though - he should easily clear a .300 batting average once he develops. We see him as our shortstop of the future, and given that he's already putting up league average numbers in Double-A, the future might arrive pretty soon!

Roederer comes with more risk, given that he's only 19 and has never taken an at-bat above Low-A, but he has a chance to be even better than Hoerner! Our scouts project him to become one of the best hitters in the game, with a rare mix of elite bat control, power, and plate discipline. He's also a great athlete who has a chance to stick at CF.

Cruz looks like a future league-average starter, and has held his own in Single-A this season despite not yet turning 20 years old.

Abbot also has the potential to be a mid-rotation arm. He has 4 pitches that project to be above-average, and while he doesn't strike out a ton of guys he's great at pitching in the zone and limiting walks.

Reds receive: OF Austin Hays (24), RP Ken Keele (18)
Orioles receive: SS Alfredo Rodriguez (25)

This trade can be best explained as a differing of views between two teams' front offices. We see Hays as having the potential to be an above-average hititer and corner outfielder, whereas the industry consensus is that he is probably more of a 4th or 5th outfielder. In 65 major league games this year he's put up a 95 OPS+, which we see as being below his potential but others around the industry think he's overperforming his abilities.

Meanwhile, Rodriguez is an incredible fielder - think Jose Iglesias - but doesn't look like he'll ever approach league-average as a hitter in the majors. He's also already 25 years old, so at this point what you see is probably pretty much what you get. I am not one to sacrifice a spot in the lineup in the name of defense, so his value was more limited to us. Presumably the Orioles value his defense and are willing to put up with his mediocre offense, so this trade makes a lot of sense.

As an added bonus, we got Keele, a raw pitcher taken in the 7th round of the draft last month. He's only got two pitches at the moment, which relegates him to the bullpen, but he is onnly 18 so if he can develop a 3rd pitch he could become an even more exciting prospect.

Smaller Trades

Not all of our trades were of the blockbuster variety, and this post is already getting a bit wordy, so I'll just quickly run through the rest of them:

- We got 39 year old C Erik Kratz for C Sandy Leon in a swap of backup catchers with the Giants. Leon might be the better player at this point in his career, but we felt it would be valuable to add a renowned leader like Kratz to our clubhouse in order to help offset the turnover and the loss of our captain in Votto.

- We acquired 25 year old SP Framber Valdez and 27 year old IF Tony Kemp from the Astros for 25 year old 3B Yonathan Mendoz and 30 year old C Juan Graterol. Neither of the guys we gave up were considered by us to be more than org players, whereas both the guys we got back are MLB-level players who can add value and contribute for the foreseeable future. Kemp can play just about any position and hits for average (though not much power), so he'll be a valuable bench utility player for us going forward, while Valdez has a bit of a walk problem but is otherwise a solid back-end starter with some upside. Not sure what the Astros were thinking on this one - might have been a move to clean up their 40-man roster a bit.

- We dumped RP Kelvin Herrera's 2 year contract on the Nationals for RP Shane Greene's 1 year contract. This was entirely a salary-driven move for us, as we didn't want to pay $10 million for Herrera next year. Instead, we'll pay only 20% of that, and we get the rest of the year to see if Greene pitches well enough to tender an offer to in arbitration in the offseason.

- We picked up 26 year old 3B Maikel Franco from the Phillies in exchange for RP Anthony Bass, who has been toiling in the minors as a 31 year old this season. This was clearly just a dump by the Phillies, who have evidently had enough of Franco's constant underperformance. We see it as a low-risk opportunity to potentially participate in Franco's considerable upside - he's got an OPS+ of 75 on the season but he definitely has the talent to do better than that. It's a very low cost move for us, and if he doesn't pan out for the rest of the season, we can just non-tender him in the offseason.

- We traded away 26 year old 3B Alex Blandino for 23 year old C Daulton Varsho from the Diamondbacks. We see Blandino as a low-ceiling Quad-A type player, and haven't had a spot for him on our major league team this year. Varsho, meanwhile, looks like he is a year or two away from being a decent backup catcher, which makes him more valuable to us than Blandino was.

Other Teams' Trades

Obviously we weren't the only team that made moves leading up to the deadline (although we probably were involved in about 50% of the trades made in July). Here's a few of the bigger trades that went down without our involvement:

- The Red Sox shipped SP Nathan Eovaldi to the Cubs for C Victor Catarini and a prospect

- The Cardinals moved on from CF Dexter Fowler, sending him to the Tigers in exchange for SP Matt Moore and CF Victor Reyes

- The ageless Nelson Cruz was acquired from the Twins by the Giants, who sent SP Drew Pomeranz and a prospect to Minnesota in return.

- In perhaps the biggest non-Reds trade of the month, the Brewers received SP Zack Wheeler from the Mets for 3B Travis Shaw and a prospect

- Similar to the Wheeler trade, the Cardinals picked up SP Colin McHugh in exchange for 1B Jose Alberto Martinez, who is now on the Astros

That's all for now - tune in next month for the August update, which will probably be considerably less interesting than the last couple of updates given that the trade deadlne has passed.

[RBI Baseball]

I just bought the game fir the first time and started a Reds 2020 franchise, so I'm following these posts with interest. I've obtained a number of the same prospects, including Alex Reyes, who's been a tough case to crack. I decided he'd spend the entire 2020 season starting in AAA to take one more stab at making a good SP out of him. He was OK, not great. In 2021 he's out of options, and I decided to pull the plug on the Reyes-as-decent-SP experiment and see if the Reyes-as-elite-RP experiment could go better. It isn't. Next year will be critical for you in figuring out what this guy will be.
I'm enjoying the posts. Keep'em coming.

[vigilante225]

Originally Posted by RBI Baseball

I just bought the game fir the first time and started a Reds 2020 franchise, so I'm following these posts with interest. I've obtained a number of the same prospects, including Alex Reyes, who's been a tough case to crack. I decided he'd spend the entire 2020 season starting in AAA to take one more stab at making a good SP out of him. He was OK, not great. In 2021 he's out of options, and I decided to pull the plug on the Reyes-as-decent-SP experiment and see if the Reyes-as-elite-RP experiment could go better. It isn't. Next year will be critical for you in figuring out what this guy will be.
I'm enjoying the posts. Keep'em coming.

Thanks! I am definitely disappointed about how Reyes is doing for me so far. I can only hope he works out better for me in the end than he did for you!

[vigilante225]

Nick's Blog Post #8 - August 2019
August 31, 2019
52-84, 5th in NL Central, 32 GB

As we enter the home stretch of the season, things are getting a lot less interesting around here, so we'll keep these updates relatively brief until our true season starts - the offseason!

Team Performance

One might expect that trading away just about all of our good players would have a negative impact on our performance, but the opposite seems to be true - we went 13-16 in August, our best month this season! Is trading away franchise cornerstones the key to winning games? Maybe that'll be something for the sabermetric community to dig further into. In any case, we are now tied for the 4th-worst record in baseball, which is actually an improvement over where we've been for most of the year. It's all about the small victories these days.

Player Performance

- In a plot twist nobody saw coming, SS Orlando Arcia was by far our best hitter in August, tearing up the league with a .330/.372/.585 slash line and 6 homers. He even won NL Player of the Week one week! His .377 BABIP on the month probably had something to do with it, but if this is indicative of a jump in his talent level then I am very excited. He now has a 97 OPS+ on the season, which is solid production from a shortstop (although he's made the 2nd most errors in the majors, so some of his position value is definitely eroded there).

- IF Eugenio Suarez failed to heat up with the weather, hitting a paltry .216/.267/.306 for the month. The fact that our best hitter had his worst month at the same time that the team had its best month is perplexing, until you see what our pitchers did...

- SP Framber Valdez has pitched better than we could have hoped for when we acquired him at the trade deadline, posting an 85 FIP- and 3.6 K/BB ratio while allowing a laughable .597 OPS to opponents in 31 innings across 6 starts for us. His August numbers would have looked even better had he not got blown up in the 2nd inning of his Aug. 31 start. His overall numbers don't accurately describe how he did - in 4 of his 6 starts he went at least 5 innings and gave up 2 or fewer runs. Those are All-Star type performances, and if he can keep doing that in two thirds of his starts, I'll happily live with his blow-ups.

- SP Cionel Perez also had a great month for a change, with a 2.56 ERA, 89 FIP- and .608 OPS against in his 6 starts. He capped it off with a complete game 1 run performance against the Marlins, who still managed to win the game in extra innings. Nevertheless, it was a welcome sign of improvement from Perez, who has had his fair share of struggles since we acquired him in June - but then again, who in our rotation hasn't?

Prospect Performance

- SP Tyler Mahle (24, AAA) had a month for the ages, posting a 1.98 ERA and a 5.3 K/BB ratio in 6 starts, including a 7 inning shutout. He looks like he could fit into the back-end of our rotation next year, and we might call him up for September to see what he can do.

- SS Nick Gordon (23, AAA) swung a hot bat in August, slashing .345/.362/.531 in 116 PAs, even taking home an International League Player of the Week award. He's been a solidly above-average hitter in Triple-A since we traded for him in May, which has made him a very valuable player when you take into account his speed and defense. Let's hope he can keep this up at the next level.

- SP Resly Linares (21, A+) looked great this past month, posting a 1.91 ERA and 75 FIP- while allowing an OPS of just .595 and striking out a batter per inning. He is very advanced for his age and will be in AA as a 22 year old by next year.

- C K.J. Harrison (23, A+) played out of his mind in August, with an incredible .420/.495/.670 slash line along with 4 homers in 100 PAs. He has absolutely destroyed A-ball pitchers, and is only still in High-A because he is blocked by Tyler Stephenson - who is also having a killer year - at Double-A. We'll make sure to get him facing tougher competition next year, though, one way or another.

- Our acquisition of OF Cole Roederer (19, A) at the deadline was the worst thing to happen to the pitchers of the Midwest League in recent memory - he's slashed .429/.500/.686 with 6 HR in his 121 PAs since we got him, and he's getting better every day.

- OF Yunior Garcia (18, R) also had a great month - so great, in fact, that he was named Batter of the Month in the Appalachian League. His stat line says it all: .348/.466/.663 with 6 homers in 118 PAs. As a key piece in the Joey Votto trade, we have high hopes for Yunior, and his performance in August was an encouraging sign.

- Our minor league teams as a whole have been doing amazing this year - our Triple-A and High-A affiliates lead their divisions by 10 games and 7 games, respectively, while our Double-A affiliate is tied for first in its division. At this point in the season, I wouldn't blame anyone for tuning into their games over actual Reds games.

League News

Given that our appearances in the headlines are few and far between now that the trade deadline has passed, we might as well talk a bit about what's going on around the rest of the league.

- The Mets are this year's surprise team so far - their 83-52 record gives them more wins than they've had in each of the last two full seasons, and puts them on pace for their best record since 1988! They lead their division by 7 games and look like a lock for the playoffs. That gives me hope - if the Mets can do it, why can't we?

- Superstar OF Christian Yelich is currently on pace to achieve the NL Triple Crown - he leads the league with a .351 average and 43 homers, and is 1 RBI back of the leader at 105. Perhaps even more impressively, he's leading the MLB in the race for the slash line Triple Crown, with an incredible .351/.446/.692 line, translating to a 193 OPS+. At 7.2 WAR, he's leading the league (even Mike Trout!) by nearly a full win.

- The unhittable Kenley Jansen is in the midst of a season-long consecutive saves streak of 29 in a row. Interestingly enough, he's actually lost 4 games this season, but has yet to blow a save opportunity.

- The Astros, as a team, currently have an OPS of .856 on the season. In comparison, our best hitter Eugenio Suarez has an OPS of .815 this season. Really makes you wonder if there's something going on with that team...

Next Update

That's all I've got for now. Tune in next month for the second last update of the 2019 season.

[vigilante225]

Nick's Blog Post #9 - September 2019
September 30, 2019
64-98, 5th in NL Central

And just like that, the 2019 MLB Regular Season is over. It feels like the season started just a few weeks ago, yet here we are at its end. Here's a brief rundown of how the final month went, along with the season as a whole:

Team Performance

The team got hot at the beginning of the month, going 7-2 in the first 9 games of September (coming off of a 4-2 stretch to end August, no less) but eventually faded, going 5-12 the rest of the way to end up with a 12-14 record in the final month of the season. Highlights included a 4 game series sweep of the Phillies, a win against Cy Young favorite Jacob DeGrom, and 2 wins in a 3 game series against the division rival Brewers, who went 102-60 this season.

Overall, we finished with a 64-98 record, good for 2nd-worst in the NL (with 12 more wins than the Marlins!) and 4th-worst in the MLB overall. Avoiding a 100-loss season was important to me, and at least we did manage to do that by a narrow margin. Incredibly, our two best months came following the trade deadline, which I see as a source of hope: the current roster played better than our overall record suggests, and with the help of some reinforcements from the minors next year, we could be a .500 team or better!

Our offense showed some encouraging signs this season - we finished 8th in the NL in both OBP and home runs, and tied for 5th in total hits. On the other hand, our pitching and defense were nothing short of atrocious, ranking last or 2nd-last in the NL in just about every category imagineable - except, oddly, for strikeouts, where we finished 7th in the league.

What does this all mean? I think it means that there is reason for optimism about next season, but it also means we have work to do in the offseason. Our defense will hopefully be aided by the promotion of several defensively capable position players from the high minors to the big leagues but our pitching will need to be improved through any means available to us. If that means trading away from areas of strength and depth to bolster our pitching, then so be it.

Player Performance

- 1B/OF Ryan McMahon looked great following our acquisition of him at the deadline - he put up a .362/.423/.500 slash line with 2 homers in 105 September plate appearances. Rarely does a hitter improve his performance after leaving Colorado, but that's exactly what's happened here. At just 24 years old and showing immense skill, we see him as a long-term piece of our lineup.

- 2B Tony Kemp is another guy who has played well after we traded for him. with a .340/.440/.402 slash line and a 14% BB rate vs. an 11% K rate in September. He's not a huge power guy, but if he can continue to avoid strikeouts while getting on base over 40% of the time, he'll be a great fit as our leadoff hitter next year.

- SS Orlando Arcia just about completed his redemption arc, putting up a 98 OPS+ (with 24 homers!) and 2.3 WAR in 147 games this season, one year after posting a 60 OPS+ and negative WAR in 119 games. He even managed to win the NL Player of the Week award twice! He obviously isn't currently the superstar that some expected him to become, but a league average hitter who plays shortstop is nothing to sneeze at, and given his pedigree and natural talent, there's a chance he could be even better next year.

- OF Nomar Mazara's redemption story is a bit less clear, unfortunately. He put up just about the same numbers at the plate as he did last year (103 OPS+ in 155 games in 2019 vs. 102 OPS+ in 124 games in 2018), but his fielding took a step backward so he ended up producing less WAR than he did in last year's disappointing season (0.4 vs. 1.2). I still think it's too early to give up on him, but a league average hitter who doesn't run particularly well and plays below-average defense in right field isn't exactly a must-start player. He might have a tough time winning a starting job in our outfield next year, given the bevy of prospects who look to be just about ready for the majors (more on that later...)

- Our lone remaining All-Star, 2B/3B Eugenio Suarez, had a rather forgettable season by his standards. He launched 31 HR, but his season slash line of .271/.351/.467 was only good for a 112 OPS+,a far cry from the 140 to 150 OPS+ he achieved in the prior 2 seasons. He was still a solid player, and one could argualy chalk up his relative underperformance to unfamiliarity with the second base role we threw him into mid-season. Let's hope he gets back to his old ways next year - the team will be very young and inexperienced, and will need a strong steady leader like himself to show them the ropes.

- Our de facto ace Luis Castillo had a mediocre season overall, and looks a lot more like a league average pitcher than a star. His 108 FIP- and 89 ERA+ pretty closely align with his numbers in 2018 (106 FIP- and 97 ERA+), and at 26 years old it's not clear how much better we can really expect him to become. He also had the misfortune of partially tearing his labrum in early September, which was the rotten icing on his disappointing cake of a season. We're expecting him to fully recover by the end of October, so he'll have plenty of time to get back into game shape before next season starts.

- SP Framber Valdez, who we acquired at the deadline from the Astros for a song, looks like he may actually be the best SP on our roster right now. In his 11 starts with us, he put up a 104 ERA+ with 10 K/9 and an 85 FIP-. He's only 25 and has 6 years of team control remaining, so he is someone we're very excited about. He's probably not good enough to be the #1 pitcher on a playoff team, but we'd be very comfortable with him as our #2 or #3.

- The Alex Reyes experiment probably has to be considered a failure at this point. He managed to lead the league in walks with 92, and his 8.30 ERA (58 ERA+) is sickening. His 118 FIP- is more tolerable, but still not particularly good. A pitcher like him who allows a lot of baserunners needs a good defense behind him, and we didn't have that this season. He might be a "change of scenery" candidate this offseason - perhaps a GM with a better defense and masochistic tendencies will offer to take him off our hands.

Prospect Performance

Congratulations are in order for the Daytona Tortugas, our High-A affiliate, who won dominated and won their league championship, following a regular season in which they had the best record in the league by 6 wins. They lie in stark contrast to our Triple-A and Double-A affiliates, who each won their division and led their 1st-round playoff series 2-0, then promptly lost their next 3 games and were eliminated from the playoffs.

Next month, to help fill the space in what will be an otherwise quiet update (playoffs? What playoffs?) we will do a rundown of our top performing prospects this season at each level, and what we expect from them next year. For now we'll end this section here, since there's not much September baseball in the minors.


League News

- Superstar Christian Yelich pulled it off and won the NL Triple Crown (.351 AVG / 50 HR / 134 RBI), becoming the first player to do so since 1933. He also won the slash line Triple Crown for the whole MLB (.351/.437/.677), and was two homers short of tying Joey Gallo for the MLB lead in home runs. His league leading 8.6 WAR made him more valuable this year than the entire roster of the Marlins, combined. If only they could have had a player like him...

- The NL Wildcard race took until game 161 of the regular season to settle, with the Cardinals sweeping a 3 game series against the Cubs that decided which of the two teams would grab the final spot. Elsewhere in the division, the Brewers won a MLB-high 102 games. It's so great that we get to play in such a fun and easy division with these guys...

- There were two 100-win teams (Brewers and Astros) and two 100-loss teams (Marlins and White Sox) this season, down from 3 of each last year. Is this a sign that parity is returning to the league? Almost certainly not.

Playoff Predictions

Here's how I see the playoffs going down:

Wildcard
TB vs. BOS: Red Sox
STL vs. ATL: Braves

ALDS
NYY vs. CLE: Yankees
HOU vs. BOS: Astros

NLDS
LAD vs. NYM: Dodgers
MIL vs. ATL: Brewers

ALCS
HOU vs. NYY: Astros

NLCS
MIL vs. LAD: Dodgers

World Series
HOU vs. LAD: Astros

Something about those Astros just makes me believe in them - it's like they've got an invisible advantage over every opponent they face...


Next Update

Next month we'll recap the playoffs and do a deep-dive into how our top prospects performed this season. Til next time!

[vigilante225]

Nick's Blog Post #10 - Playoffs Recap (October 2019)
October 23, 2019

Playoffs Recap

Apologies are due to the world champion Brewers, who I completely underestimated in my playoff predictions in the last post. Not only did they make the World Series - they won it in 5 games, establishing their dominance over the runner-up Astros and the rest of the league. The signs of their superiority were definitely there from the start, given that they had the most regular season wins in the MLB and they have the best player this side of Mike Trout in World Series MVP Christian Yelich, so my only remaining defense for not believing in them is that I simply didn't want to believe that the best team in baseball resides in our division - it's too scary a thought to bear.

The rest of the playoffs had some surprises throughout - the Indians swept the Yankees in the ALDS, which I definitely didn't see coming. As well, the Cardinals made it out of the Wildcard round and took the eventual champion Brewers to an elimination Game 5.

Prospect Performance - 2019 Season

Triple-A

- 1B Nate Lowe had one of the most impressive Triple-A seasons in recent memory, slashing .330/.424/.550 (155 OPS+) along with 25 HR in 615 PAs, resulting in 5.0 WAR. He led the league in WAR and OPS and was just .017 batting average points away from the Triple Crown. He has obviously done more than enough to earn a promotion to the majors, and we can't wait to see what he can do on the Reds next season.

- IF/OF Nick Solak (24), IF/OF Tommy Edman (24), OF Yordan Alvarez (22), and OF Luis Gonzalez (24) all put up impressive numbers in 400 to 600 Triple-A PAs, ranging from 120 OPS+ to 140 OPS+. They all deserve a shot at playing in the majors next year, which is why it will be hard for a guy like Mazara to earn a spot in our outfield. This glut of high-minors talent is a great problem to have, but we will eventually need to figure out what to do about it.

- IF Nick Senzel (24) had a snake-bitten season, missing nearly half the season due to various injuries, including a broken elbow suffered in September that will keep him out until next May. Despite that, he still managed a 155 OPS+ and 2.5 WAR in just 75 games, and looks like he'll be a bona fide star in the majors - if he can make it there in one piece.

- Speaking of stars, we have some high-potential arms in our high minors who pitched well in 2019: Darwinzon Hernandez (22) posted a 115 ERA+ and a 99 FIP- in 115 Triple-A innings - impressive stuff for a 22 year old - while Jonathan Loaisiga (24) managed a solid 117 ERA+ and 80 FIP- with nearly a strikeout per inning (8.7 K/9) in 146 innings in Triple-A. Corbin Martin (23) also looked good, with a 99 ERA+, 93 FIP-, and 8.5 K/9 in 132 Triple-A innings. Those 3 starters have a chance to compete for spots in our major league rotation, and could provide an instant upgrade over some of the guys we've been throwing out there every 5 days this season.

- RP Jimmy Webb (26) looked like our closer of the future, pitching to the tune of a 218 ERA+ and 73 FIP- with 13.3 K/9 in 49 IP in Triple-A. He also racked up 35 saves, showing that most - if not all - of that impressive production came in high-leverage situations. His performance was enough to win him the International League Reliever of the Year Award. He'll definitely be in our major league bullpen next season, and could even be the closer depending on how things go in Spring Training.

Double-A

- C Tyler Stephenson (23) was the surprise of the year, putting up monster numbers in his age-22 season in Double-A. Our scouts see him as having backup-level potential, but his .299/.410/.468 (league-leading 144 OPS+, 4.9 WAR) stat line as a catcher says otherwise. We're hoping this breakout is indicative of his true talent level.

- 3B Bobby Dalbec (24) was also a pleasant surprise this year. It is well known that Dalbec has power, but he showed that he can also make contact from time to time, with a .252/.344/.528 line (139 OPS+) and a league-high 24 homers in just 79 games after we acquired him in June. Hopefully he can make enough contact at the major league level to be able to tap into his immense power - only time will tell.

- SS Domingo Leyba (24) had a year for the ages (almost) - he had an OPS+ of 186 in 53 games with Arizona's Double-A affiliate, then came to us in a trade and posted a 197 OPS+ in 31 games before tearing a back muscle in July. He was on pace for a historic season, and we're sad for him that he didn't get to finish it, but we can't wait for him to get back on the field next season and hopefully pick up right where he left off.

- CF T.J. Friedel (24) looks like a star in the making, with 5 above-average tools and the production to match. He's a bit old for Double-A, but it's hard to argue with the results: .289/.384/.391 (116 OPS+) and above-average defense in the outfield resulted in 2.6 WAR in just 94 games, following a 36 game stint in High-A in which he posted a 137 OPS+ and 1.7 WAR. Next year he'll get a chance to prove himself against tougher competiton in Triple-A.

- SPs Jackson Kowar (22) and Garret Whitlock (23) both had productive seasons, turning in above-average performances over 130 - 140 IP. Kowar didn't get a ton of strikeouts (6 K/9) but did a great job of limiting walks and homers on his way to a 139 ERA+ / 92 FIP- / 2.5 WAR, season, while Whitlock put up more Ks but had some bad luck (.357 BABIP) in a 80 ERA+ / 95 FIP- / 2.2 WAR season. Both will be starting in Triple-A next season, and hopefully will be in the majors before long!

Single-A / High-A

- C K.J. Harrison (23) had a monster year across Single-A and High-A, slashing .361/.430/.560 (167 OPS+, 4.1 WAR) in 344 PAs. He's admittedly a bit old for the level, so we'll have to see how he does against tougher competition next year, but right now he looks like a stud.

- OF Anthony Alexander Garcia (19) looks like a prodigy, with a 139 OPS+ and 2.3 WAR in just 296 PAs, all as a teenager. He'll most likely start next season at Double-A, so keep an eye out to see if he can keep producing at such a young age as he climbs the ranks.

- OF Cole Roederer (20) is another young gun punching above his weight. Having just turned 20 a week ago (happy birthday!), he spent his age-19 season tearing up Low-A and Single-A, with a .364/.442/.569 slash line along with 7 HR and 5 SB in just 330 PAs, good for a 162 wRC+ and 3.6 WAR across both levels. He also looks like he has the tools to stick in center field, making him an incredibly valuable all-around prospect. We'll probably start him off in High-A next year, and who knows where he'll end the season!

- SP Aaron Ashby (21) seemed to be mentioned in my updates nearly every month due to outstanding performance. His full-season numbers were great, with an 83 FIP-, 128 ERA+ 3.0 K/BB ratio, and 3.1 WAR in 137 innings between Single-A and High-A. I'm not sure he has much left to prove in the Single-A leagues, so expect him to be in Double-A next season.

- Highly touted prospect SS Jelfry Marte failed to live up to expectations, posting a lowly 71 OPS+ in 350 PAs in Single-A. He's only 18, so we might have rushed him a bit. We'll let him try Single-A again next year and hope we get a better outcome.

Rookie League

- CF Joerlin De Los Santos (19) bounced back after he was demoted following a shaky start to the the season in Single-A, producing 2.4 WAR with a 126 OPS+ in 72 Rookie League games. We'll try to bump him up to Single-A again to start next season.

- CF Yunior Garcia (18) obliterated Rookie League pitching in 2019, with an incredible 185 wRC+ and 5 WAR in just 65 games. He was absolutely unstoppable, and will definitely be in Single-A next year despite being just 18 years old.

- OF Mike Siani (20) has become very intriguing to us. A 4th round draft pick in 2018, he's a 5-tool athlete who figured out Rookie League pitching to the tune of a 136 OPS+ and 1.5 WAR in 50 games. He was flying a bit under the radar after an unspectacular first season of pro ball last year, but now our scouts see him as one of the top prospects in our organization, if not all of baseball.

- OF Diego Hernandez (18) and IF Jeans Garcia (18) both continue to look like future stars, each putting up 2 WAR in less than 70 games with above-average batting stats (140 wRC+ for Hernandez, 120 for Garcia). Both are still so young and raw that it would be irresponsible to read too much into their outperformance, but it's definitely a positive sign that they're hitting so well.

- 3B Tim Hinkle (19), our 1st round pick this past June, had a season to forget - his wRC+ was just 55, and he only blasted 2 homers in 233 plate appearances. We're choosing to not overreact to it, but it's definitely not a great first impression.

Next Update

That's probably enough ink spilled about our farm system for now. Look for next month's update to be action-packed with all kinds of trades and other roster moves now that the offseason has begun!

[vigilante225]

Nick's Blog Post #11 - 2019/20 Offseason Update #1
December 6, 2019

We've finally made it to a rebuilding GM's favourite time of the year! There's much to discuss, so let's get right into it.

Awards

Before we talk about roster moves, let's quickly go over who won this year's biggest awards:

Rookie of the Year: 1B Pete Alonso (NYM, NL), OF Kyle Tucker (HOU, AL)
Cy Young Award: Jacob deGrom (NYM, NL), Chris Sale (BOS, AL)
MVP: OF Christian Yelich (MIL, NL), SS Carlos Correa (HOU, AL)

Congratulations to all winners. Interestingly, both NL award winners were repeats from 2018, while both AL winners were first-timers.

Trades

As always, we have been very active in the trade market, making 12 trades already since the World Series ended. Most were of the minor variety, but there were a few big ones worth analyzing:

Reds receive: SP Lucas Giolito (25)
White Sox receive: OF Nomar Mazara (24), C Tyler Stephenson (23), SS Luis Bryan Lopez (19)

This trade could very easily end up blowing up in our faces, but at the same time it is the exact kind of trade we need to be able to make in order for our method of team-building to work. We paid a hefty price - Stephenson demolished Double-A pitching as a 22-year old catcher (although our scouts don't think he'll ever be anything more than a backup at the major league level), while Mazara has the tools to be an above average outfielder (although he hasn't put it all together yet and already has over 3 years of major league service time) and Lopez is an raw but intriguing middle infield prospect - but the opportunity to acquire a starter as young and as talented as Giolito doesn't come around very often, and when it does come around it's never cheap. His numbers from last season don't exactly scream "ace" (83 ERA+, 110 FIP-, 1.53 WHIP, 2.6 K/BB in 146 IP) but he instantly slots in as our best pitcher, and there's reason to believe he'll be better this year. He's only 25, and his K/9 and BB/9 both improved in 2019 vs. 2018. He had some bad luck with batted balls, allowing a .336 BABIP, which played a factor in his .818 OPS allowed. We are very excited to be bringing him in as our #1 starter, and while we will miss Mazara and Stephenson, we knew all along that we would have to give up position players to acquire top-talent pitchers, so this shouldn't come as too much of a shock.

Reds receive: SP Julio Urias (23), RP Randy Flood (23)
Dodgers receive: OF Gio Brusa (26), SP Ricky Salinas (23)

Urias was one of the biggest prospects in all of baseball until recently, but hasn't lived up to the hype. He's still just 23 years old, though, and he has the talent to become an above-average picher, so when the Dodgers expressed a willingness to let him go for cheap we had to pounce. Brusa has some pop but he is 26 years old and has never even made it to Triple-A, so I'm not losing too much sleep over giving him up. Salinas is an interesting SP prospect who pitched well this past year, but we don't see him ever really making an impact in the majors. Urias alone would have been a bargain at this price, and we also got them to throw in Flood, a live arm who could one day be a dominant lefty in our bullpen.

The additions of Urias and Giolito create a bit of a logjam in our rotation, with 7 good young starters fighting over our bottom 3 rotation spots - and that's before we bring in any veteran FAs to round it out. However, given the dearth of pitching we had in our organization last year, I would say this is a pretty good problem to have.

Reds receive: SP J.B. Bukauskas (23), OF/3B Marty Costes (23)
Astros receive: SP Tyler Mahle (25), SP Jacob Heatherly (21), 2B Cash Case (20), SP Doroteo Cuevas (19)

Bukauskas is a great example of the type of pitching prospect we target - a high-minors nearly-finished product who has the stuff to be dominant but doesn't yet have the track record of production that would make him too pricey for us to acquire. He still comes with risk - as all pitchers do - but he's a lot closer to a sure thing than a younger low-minors pitching prospect would be. That's why we don't mind giving up Heatherly and Cuevas in this deal - they may one day be starters in the majors, but so many things could go wrong between now and then that it just isn't worth the risk from our perspective. Mahle was the 6th or 7th pitcher on our depth chart last year and won't be missed too much given our newfound pitching depth, while Case looks like he'll be a utility player at best and has yet to play a game above Rookie league. Bukauskas, meanwhile, has a repertoire of 4 above-average pitches including a fastaball that can reach 96MPH, and has enough control to limit walks. He didn't perform very well in 2019, with a 121 FIP- in 130 Double-A innings, but we think he's skilled enough to start next year in Triple-A. We also picked up Costes, a guy who we see as having no real standout tool but has the potential to be an all-around solid hitter with average defense at any of the 4 corners.

Reds receive: SP Garrett Cave (23), OF Luis Eduardo Matos (17)
Giants receive: SS Jose Peraza (25), OF Austin Hays (24), IF Joseph Gilma (20)

This was a move to extract some value from Peraza - who we were going to be non-tendering anyway - and also clean up our 40-man roster a bit by moving on from Hays, who is a decent young player but would have most likely been squeezed out of our lineup given the impressive crop of prospects we'll be graduating to the majors this season. Gilma - a glove-first utility-type prospect - was the cost of doing this business, but his skillset is uninspiring and he's far enough away from the majors that this doesn't really hurt us much. In return we got Cave - an intriguing SP prospect who is a bit behind his age in terms of development but has the potential to be an average MLB starter one day - and Matos, a lottery ticket prospect who isn't even 18 yet but looks like he has the raw tools and abilities to be an All-Star. The odds of Matos reaching that potential probably aren't great, but it didn't cost us much for the chance to find out. Time will tell who wins this trade.

Reds receive: IF Brett Netzer (23), SP Denyi Reyes (23), RP Zach Schellenger (23)
Red Sox receive: 1B Dominic Smith (24)

We acquired Smith at the trade deadline for just about nothing of value, and after putting up a league-average batting line in 50 games with us, we managed to turn him into a handful of decent prospects. That alone is cause for celebration, although I must admit the prospects we got back aren't overly thrilling. Netzer is the most interesting of the bunch - he looks like he could become an above-average hitter while also flashing an above-average glove at 2nd base. If he realizes that potential he'll be a steal, but right now he is a 23 year old who has only played 2 games above High-A, so he might never reach his ceiling. Reyes looks like a back-end rotation piece at best, while Schellenger might forever be the 7th or 8th man in the bullpen. Regardless, we definitely got a lot more for Smith than we gave up for him just 6 months earlier, so we're happy with this deal.

Reds receive: OF/IF Pablo Reyes (26), SP Nick Mears (23)
Pirates receive: RP Carlos Bustamante (25)

Trading with a division rival is always an interesting proposition, but when an opportunity to get a player like Reyes arises at such a low cost, it's hard to pass up. Reyes runs well and can play just about anywhere on the diamond, but can also hit like a regular. We're a bit higher on him than the industry seems to be, and he hasn't yet proven he can do it in the majors (just 160 career MLB PAs) but we like what he did in Triple-A in 2019 (.392 OBP, 128 OPS+, 2.9 WAR in 105 games) and we think he's MLB-ready. He still has options left, so even if we're wrong and he needs more time in the minors that won't be an issue. Meanwhile, Mears looks like he could become a league-average starter, and all we had to give up for both of those guys is a low-upside minor league bullpen arm in Bustamante.

We made several other trades that were less significant, but they still warrant mention:

- We acquired 23 year old catching prospect Justin Wilson from the Yankees for 26 year old SP Clayton Blackburn and 24 year old C Chris Okey. We think Wilson has the ceiling of a starting catcher and the floor of a backup, while neither of the guys we gave up are worthy of a major league roster spot in our eyes.

- We traded IF Greg Garcia (30) and 2B Josh VanMeter (24) to the Cubs for C Caleb Knight (23). Garcia played well for us in the majors in 2019, amassing 1.2 WAR, but he's pretty replaceable, while VanMeter is arguably sub-replacement level and has pretty much reached his ceiling. Knight looks like he could become a league-average catcher with a decent amount of power, so we like our side of this trade.

- We acquired C John Hicks (30) in exchange for IF Nick Franklin (28) from the Orioles, in keeping with the theme of acquiring catchers. Hicks is a solid catcher defensively and put up a 81 OPS+ in 170 ABs last year, so while he isn't a star he can be a good backup/platoon option for us in the majors this year while we wait for our prospects to develop.

- We traded minor league RP Ronel Blanco (26) for RP Tommy Kahnle (30). Kahnle didn't have a great year in 2019, giving up a ton of walks (6 BB/9) on his way to a 100 FIP- and 98 ERA+ in 68 IP. We think his true talent is that of an above-average reliever though (his ERA+ was 168 in 2017 and 158 in 2016), and he gets a ton of strikeouts (12.8 K/9 in 2019!) and it cost us almost nothing, so we're happy to take this bet that he gets back to his old self.

Arbitration / Free Agency

The arbitration process occurred in November, and we had a few notable non-tenders, including C Erik Kratz (39), RP Michael Lorenzen (27), and 3B Maikel Franco (27). It was a shame that we couldn't get anything more out of Franco, who we had picked up at the trade deadline, but he was in line for a massive salary through arbitration and no other team wanted to take on that obligation.

We ended up going to arbitration with SS Orlando Arcia, SP Alex Reyes and C Jett Bandy and won all 3 of our cases. Hopefully the players don't hold it against us - we think our offers were fair, and evidently the arbitration judges agreed with us.

In terms of free agency, the Winter Meetings haven't occurred yet so there's still time for more big splashes, but a few of the biggest names have already found new homes:

- SP Gerritt Cole, the crown jewel of this year's free agent class, was shockingly signed by the Mets for $180 million over 6 years. That rotation was already one of the best in the league and now it gets even better. The craziest part is that the Mets, of all teams, are suddenly spending money now...

- The best hitter in this year's class, 3B Anthony Rendon, landed with the Cardinals for $20 million per year over the next 5 years. He's joined by RP Craig Kimbrel, who they signed for $25.5 million over 3 years ($8.5M/yr). STL isn't exactly known for signing big free agents, so this came as a bit of a shock. If this turns into a trend we might have to petition the league to move us to a different division...

- SP Hyun-Jin Ryu had a career year at the perfect time, putting up 5.5 WAR right before becoming a free agent, and cashed in with a 5 year, $115 million deal from the Angels. As a 32 year old with an injury history, it might not be long before LA regrets this one.

- Speaking of regrettable deals, SS Didi Gregorius landed a $135 million (!) dollar contract that will have him playing on the Brewers for the next 7 (!) years. You can't fault the team for making moves to strengthen their team to defend their World Series title, but I'm not sure this is the way to do it. Gregorius is 29 and is coming off a 1.5 WAR season, so either they're expecting massive improvement in his age-30 season or they're happy with paying about $15 million per WAR. Best of luck to them in either case.

- Other notable signings include SP Dallas Keuchel to the Phillies ($28 million over 2 years), C Francisco Cervelli to the Red Sox ($40 million over 4 years), and SP Rick Porcello to the Dodgers ($15 million over 2 years)

- The top remaining free agents include OF J.D. Martinez, OF Khris Davis, OF Nelson Cruz, 3B Matt Carpenter, 3B Mike Moustakas, 3B Nick Castellanos, 3B Josh Donaldson, and C Yasmani Grandal. A couple former Reds also remain, including 2B Scooter Gennet, SS Jose Iglesias, OF Yasiel Puig, and OF Matt Kemp. This winter is once again shaping up to be a long one for bat-first corner outfielders and third basemen.

Next Update

Check back next month for news on what happens at the upcoming Winter Meetings, as well as the results of the Rule 5 Draft. Til next time!

[vigilante225]

Nick's Blog Post #12 - 2019/20 Offseason Update #2
January 7, 2020

The last month of the offseason has been relatively uneventful, so we'll keep this update pretty short. Let's get right into it!

Rule 5 Draft

As a team with a lot of high-minors talent in our organization, I can promise you that there were a lot of sleepless nights leading up to the Rule 5 Draft this winter. Luckily, our fears turned out to be unfounded, as we didn't lose a single player despite leaving a lot of talent unprotected.

In fact, we ended up being net takers in the draft, picking up 23 year old RP Demarcus Evans from the Rangers. He's a power pitcher with a nasty fastball-curveball combo that should serve him well, assuming he can get his walks under control. We're taking a real chance here, as he has never pitched an inning above A-ball, but his career numbers (14 K/9, 170 ERA+ in 230 professional IP) suggest that this guy could be special, and even if he has some struggles in the majors this year we feel it's worth it to add him to our org.

Free Agent Signings

We addressed one of our biggest areas of need by fully replacing our catcher situation with some proven vets: James McCann (29) and Alex Avila (32) both signed 1-year deals and provide an instant upgrade over our other options at the position (more on them later). They come in at a total cost of $3.5 million for the year, making them an absolute steal in my opinion. They'll provide some much-needed leadership in the locker room and solid defense behind the plate, while not completely sucking in the batter's box. We're very excited to be adding them to our clubhouse.

We also picked up a solid veteran starter in Martin Perez (28), also at a bargain-basement price. He'll be paid just $1.7 million this upcoming season, with a team option for 2021 at the same price. He put up 2.3 WAR in 195 innings last season, and instantly becomes one of our top 3 pitchers. It puts us in an interesting situation heading into Spring Training, with 4 guys competing for the 5th spot in the rotation - and that's before you even consider our guys in the high minors who are looking to break into the majors. It's too soon to say how that will be resolved, but keep an eye on that position battle this upcoming spring.

Trades

We went lighter on trades than usual this past month, but of course there were still a few worth mentioning!

Reds receive RP Brett Martin (24)
Rangers receive SP Mike Shawaryn (25)

This was a fringe move to moderately upgrade from a guy who we saw as topping out as a "Quad-A" starter. Martin comes with a bit more upside, as a MLB-ready middle reliever who could be stretched out into a bottom-of-the-rotation starter if the need arose. It won't move the needle for either team, but we do see this as an upgrade.

Reds receive OF Brandon Marsh (22), RP Daniel Procopio (24)
Angels receive SP Alex Reyes (25), C Jett Bandy (29), C Junior Melo (22), SP Alec Byrd (24)

The Alex Reyes era in Cincinnati has come to an end, after just a single disastrous season. We are hoping to become competitive sooner rather than later, and given our newfound pitching depth, it just didn't make sense to keep trotting him out there just to get shelled over and over again. Best of luck to the Angels, who announced their intention to move him to the bullpen fulltime. We also gave up Bandy, who was solid for us last year but no longer had a spot on our roster following our signings of McCann and Avila as mentioned above. Melo and Byrd are seen as non-prospects by our talent evaluators, so we were fine with including them in this deal.

In return we acquired Marsh, a 2016 2nd rounder who has been featured on top-100 prospect lists in the past and continues to look like a legitimate prospect. He's a 5-tool prospect who can hit for power and average while also displaying top-end speed and solid defensive chops - the hope is that he can stick in centerfield, but scouts aren't 100% confident about that. He hit well at High-A and Double-A in 2019, and will start 2020 with our Double-A affiliate.

We also picked up Propocino, a righty with some nasty stuff and a bit of a control problem. If he can clean that up, he could be a high-leverage reliever someday soon.

Reds receive C Luis Torrens (23)
Rockies receive C John Hicks (30)
Padres receive 1B Josh Fuentes (26)

It's not that often that you see a 3-team trade in the MLB, much less one that involves players as fringey as these guys, but I say why not? We essentially traded in a veteran catcher with no options in Hicks for a younger catcher with a minor league contract in Torrens. This helped us solve a 40-man roster crunch, and also allowed us to pick up a decent young player in Torrens, who was famously a Rule 5 pick in 2017 despite never playing above A-ball prior to being added to the Padres' major league roster. He's not much of a hitter, but he's a great defender behind the plate and could one day be a solid backup. Hicks, meanwhile, became superfluous to us after we signed McCann and Avila.

League News

Just because we had a quiet month doesn't mean the rest of the league did! Here's some of the biggest moves that were made by other teams:

- C Yasmani Grandal (31) was signed to a 6 year deal at $12 million per year by the Rockies. The thinner air will help his offensive production, but I'd hate to be the one paying a 37-year old catcher $12 million in 2025...

- The Giants upgraded their lineup big-time, signing OF JD Martinez (32) to a 5 year $98 million contract and OF/3B Nicholas Castellanos (27) to a 4 year $34 million contract. Pitchers are going to hate facing that lineup, but their centerfielder is going to have his work cut out for him...

- A pair of former Reds found new homes, with OF Yasiel Puig (29) benefitting from the Cardinals' continued shopping spree - they landed Puig with a 4 year $31 million deal - and 2B Scooter Gennett (29) cashing in with a 7 year $67 million deal from the Tigers.

- My prediction of a long winter for corner outfielders and third basemen was proven false over and over again, with many bat-first veterans signing sizeable multi-year deals, even from teams who typically don't spend heavily in free agency. To name a few (along with those mentioned above): OF Khris Davis (32, $74M/4yrs from WSH), 3B Mike Moustakas (31, $69M/5yrs from WSH), 3B Matt Carpenter (34, $62M/4yrs from ATL), 3B Josh Donaldson (34, $44M/5yrs from NYY), OF Marcell Ozuna (29, $36M/4yrs from CLE). In a way this is a positive development for us, as it will hopefully mean that by the time we are ready to spend big, these teams will have all of their payroll tied up in aging bats and won't be able to bid up the guys that we go after.

- There were two notable trades made around the league: first, the Indians acquired a dominant reliever in RP Mychal Givens (29) from the Orioles in exchange for two prospects, CF Oscar Mercado (24) and 2B Aaron Bracho (18). Then the Indians traded away one of their existing dominant relievers in Brad Hand (29), along with prospect OF Quentin Holmes (20), to the Padres in exchange for CF Manny Margot (25). I'm not too sure to make of these moves - I guess they got a solid defensive CF while not materially hurting their bullpen or prospect depth by much, so it might have been a smart pair of trades.

Next Update

Since the offseason activity is looking like it is slowing down, I'm thinking the next update will be just before Spring Training starts. That way I can give an update on any additional offseason news while also providing a preview of what to look for during Spring Training, since by then we will have a better idea of what our roster will look like. Til next time!

[vigilante225]

Nick's Blog Post #13 - 2019/20 Offseason Update #3
February 27, 2020

Spring is in the air - well not actually, since it's still February, but Spring Training has arrived! Before we get to that, though, let's quickly run through what's gone on during the final two months of the offseason.

Roster Moves

As expected, there was a lot less activity in January and February than there had been in the preceding months. That being said, we did make a few noteworthy moves:

- We signed IF/OF Enrique Hernandez (28) to a 1 year deal worth $1.4 million. He's a jack of all trades whose defensive versatility makes him a valuable player, even if his bat has declined a bit (his 78 OPS+ in 2019 pales in comaprison to the 128 OPS+ he put up the previous year). He may even be our Opening Day centerfielder - but more on that later.

- We made a few trades to bolster our high-minors prospect depth, which figure to be depleted in the coming months as several of our top prospeccts graduate to the minors:

Reds receive: CF Daz Cameron (23), RP Eduardo Jimenez (24), RP Jason Foley (24), RP Gerson Moreno (24), CF Clark Brinkman (23)
Tigers receive: 3B Bobby Dalbec (24), RP Brett Hanewich (25)

This was a ceiling-for-floor trade, where we traded away the higher-upside prospect in Dalbec and received a pretty sure thing in Cameron who doesn't have the star potential that Dalbec has. Dalbec looks like he could be the next Joey Gallo, and showed immense power last year (36 homers in Double-A) but there are legitimate concerns that he won't make enough contact in the majors to tap into that power, given his strikeout rates and low contact rates. He could come to make us regret this trade, but we prefer the profile of Cameron, a top-notch athlete who runs well and will be above-average defensively in centerfield, who also hits for decent average and power while showing remarkable plate discipline - he probably won't be a star but that profile translates to a well above-average player, and he produced well enough last year in Double-A (.274/.346/.415) to start him off this year in Triple-A as a 23 year old. We also got a trio of 24-year old righty relief prospects and a glove-first athlete in Brinkman.

Reds receive: OF Micker Adolfo (23), OF Anderson Comas (19)
White Sox receive: 3B Jake Lumley (24), SS Cristopher Navarro (20), 2B Antonio Pinero (20)

It's possible that the Sox are simply seeing something that we're missing, but this honestly looks like a robbery by us, from where I'm standing. Adolfo should help replace the power we lost in the Dalbec trade, but comes with a bit less risk given his superior ability to make contact. Comas, meanwhile, is a bit of an unknown commodity at this point - scouts are split on his hit tool, and ultimately he isn't expected to produce much power despite his 6'3 frame, but he's a solid runner and outfielder who should probably develop into a league-average hitter, if not better. On the other hand, none of the guys we gave up look like they'll ever hit well enough to make the big leagues, and while all 3 are athletes with solid infield gloves, they'd have to field like Andrelton Simmons in order to justify their lack of performance at the plate, which we don't see happening with any of these guys. Comas and Adolfo aren't perfect prospects, and they each come with their own set of risks, but the price was so low that the risk was more than worth it.

Reds receive: RP Yadier Alvarez (23)
Dodgers receive: 2B Kevin Rivera (23), RP Drew Anderson (25)

Another once-fabled Dodgers pitching prospect who is now decidedly post-hype, Alvarez is days away from turning 24 and hasn't lived up to the immense potential he was once thought to have. As you probably know by now, I find that type of player irresistible, and when we saw how cheaply L.A. was willing to give him up, we decided to pull the trigger. Rivera and Anderson came to our organization as a minor league free agent and a waiver claim, respectively, so we didn't part with anything too dear to us here. Alvarez still has the nasty stuff that led to him signing with the Dodgers for $16 million in 2015 as a 19 year old out of Cuba. The walks continue to be an issue, however, and he struggled last year in Triple-A, with a 6.68 ERA and 6 BB/9 in 23 starts. We're going to try him out in the bullpen, as his stuff might work better there. It was a low-risk move given how little we had to trade away, so even if he doesn't pan out it's not a huge issue.

Reds receive: SS Taylor Walls (23), 2B Tristan Gray (23)
Rays receive: 2B Josh VanMeter (24), 2B Greifer Andrade (23), RP Lachlan Wells (22), C Hagen Owenby (22), 2B Tanner Nishioka (25)

Walls and Gray both fall into the same category - all-around players who have no real standout tool and probably won't be stars due to a lack of power. Walls probably has a bit more upside because he's got the glove to play shortstop, while Gray has the higher floor as he's already pretty much major league ready. Both had success at Double-A last season (113 OPS+ for Walls, 98 OPS+ for Gray) and both figure to be a part of our big league infield in the near future in some capacity. On the other side of the trade, we gave up an assortment of low-ceiling org players. Given that this is the Rays we're talking about, I wouldn't be surprised to see at least one or two of these guys magically turn into solid major leaguers, but we like our side of the trade better.

Reds receive: RP Ken Giles (29)
Blue Jays receive: RP Amir Garrett (27)

Giles will be making $9 million this year, in his final year of arbitration, so the rationale here was clear for the (needlessly) budget-conscious Jays. But the gap in talent and production between Giles and Garrett is massive - Giles put up 1.6 WAR with a 70 FIP- and 150 ERA+ in 60 IP in 2019, while Garrett scuffled his way to 0.1 WAR with a 90 ERA+ and 105 FIP- in the same number of innings. We expect some regression, given our less-than-stellar defense and Giles' relatively low home run rate in 2019 despite a previous history of giving up plenty of homers, but he instantly slots in as our closer, and should once again be one of the best relievers in baseball in 2020. On top of that, we got the Jays to agree to eat $3 million of his salary, so we're only paying $6 million, which we can definitely afford given that we purged just about every expensive player from our payroll last season - even at his reduced salary, Giles is now the 2nd most expensive player on our team (after Eugenio Suarez) and nobody below him makes over $3 million.

League News

- In a head-scratching move, the Marlins renamed themselves the Miami Brigadiers and changed their colour scheme and logo to be incredibly ugly. I have no idea what this accomplishes. While they were at it they should have tried changing their owner...In conjunction with their new look, the Brigadiers (that's gonna take a while to get used to) announced the signings of two legitimate, real life major leaguers: 1B Jose Abreu (33, 1yr/$4M) and OF Corey Dickerson (30, 5yr/$51M). Maybe this really is a new beginning for them!

- Elsewhere in "non-contenders signing veterans" news, SP Drew Pomeranz (31) joined the Orioles for 2 years at $6M/yr, and Brian Dozier (32) signed a 2 year deal with the Tigers worth $16M total. Not sure what the logic is there - if they wanted to flip those guys at the deadline, shouldn't they have signed them to 1 year deals to give the acquiring team more flexibility? Or do these teams think they'll be competitive within 2 years?? Either way, best of luck to all involved parties.

Spring Training Preview

Baseball is finally here, and the only thing more exciting at this time of year than Spring Training baseball itself is the position battles that occur during Spring Training. At least that's how I feel, especially this season, as we have a couple of roster spots up for grabs this spring:

Shortstop: Orlando Arcia (25) vs. Tommy Edman (24)

It seems a tad unfair to be putting Arcia's spot in the lineup in jeopardy immediately following his first above-average season in the majors (97 OPS+, 24 HR, 2.2 WAR in 147 games), but that's how good Edman was last year - his 120 OPS+ and 3.0 WAR in Triple-A was beyond what we expected from him when we acquired him at the start of the season, and with that he's forced his way into the conversation for the starting shortstop position. He doesn't have as much power as Arcia, but his combination of bat-to-ball skills and plate discipline are some of the best in the business. The one knock on him is that his glove profiles as more of a utility player who can play anywhere on the diamond, rather than a starting SS, but Arcia isn't exactly a defensive wizard himself, and Edman might get better with more reps there. We're not making any decisions yet, but they'll be alternating games at SS throughout Spring Training and we'll make the call once we see how they each hold up. An interesting wrinkle is what to do with Arcia if he loses the battle - he doesn't have experience at any other position, and with 3 full years of major league service and coming off a 2 WAR season we aren't about to send him down to the minors. He may become an interesting trade chip to be dangled in front of SS-needy teams as we inch closer to Opening Day...

Second Base: Tony Kemp (28) vs. Tristan Gray (23)

This is a temporary position battle, as the spot will ultimately be taken by Eugenio Suarez once Nick Senzel returns from his broken elbow in a few months. In the meantime, this job looked like it would go to Kemp without a fight, but then we acquired Gray and things got a bit murkier. Gray put up so-so numbers in Double-A last year (98 OPS+, 9 HR in 120 games) but he showed up to our facilities looking just about ready for the big leagues. Kemp, meanwhile, had a great 2019, with a 117 wRC+ and 1.9 WAR in 91 MLB games, but he was helped by an unsustainable .358 BABIP and is lighter-hitting than you would like to see from an everyday player. If Gray has a strong showing in Spring Training, we might go with him at 2B and keep Kemp in a bench utility role to start the season.

Backup Catcher: Alex Avila (33) vs. Meibrys Viloria (23)

Our primary catcher is definitely James McCann - nothing short of injury will change that - but Viloria presents a legitimate challenge to Avila's spot as our backup backstop. Viloria was fantastic at Double-A last year, with a 156 OPS+ and 1.9 WAR in 55 games before we promoted him to Triple-A, where he managed a decent 0.7 WAR and 79 OPS+ in 57 games. He could probably stand to spend a bit more time in Triple-A before getting called up to the big leagues, but a strong showing in Spring Training combined with Avila showing his age (he's only 33 but catchers age in dog years) could accelerate his timeline.

4th & 5th Rotation Spots: Dakota Hudson (25), Cionel Perez (23), Julio Urias (23), Framber Valdez (25), Brett Martin (24)

This one's a doozy - we've got 5 guys fighting over 2 spots, and that's before you consider our top two Triple-A arms (Darwinzon Hernandez and Jonathan Loaisiga) who would each probably get consideration for most teams' rotations. The clubhouse must be tense. It hasn't been decided yet, but right now the favorites have to be Hudson - who struggled a bit last year but ultimately seems to have what it takes to be a major league starter - and Perez, who was pretty much league average for us last year. Valdez is arguably the best of the bunch but the combination of his nasty 3-pitch repertoire, so-so control, and moderate stamina arguably make him better-suited for the bullpen. We're fine with sending Martin to the minors, but Urias poses a bit of a challenge, as he is out of option years and we really don't want to risk losing him on waivers, but at this point he isn't one of our 5 best starters. We don't have to make any moves just yet, but something is going to have to give before Opening Day...

Next Update

Check in next month for our Spring Training wrap-up and our Reglar Season preview! Til next time!

[vigilante225]

Nick's Blog Post #14 - 2020 Season Preview
March 31, 2020

We finally made it to Opening Day 2020! I'll quickly run through the Opening Day roster and discuss our expectations for the season, but first let's recap how Spring Training went.

Spring Training Recap

We performed fairly well as a team during Spring Training, finishing with a respectable 14-14 record. Of course, in our stacked division, that was only good enough to have us tie for last place, but what can you do. On a player-by-player level, it was a mixed bag, with some guys shining bright and others struggling mightily. That has led to some unexpected results when it comes to our Opening Day roster, as we'll discuss next.

Opening Day Lineup

C: James McCann (29) / Alex Avila (33)

The two former Tigers catchers, who we signed in the offseason, managed to temporarily stave off their challenger Meibrys Viloria (23) who had a lackluster ST (71 wRC+, albeit in just 38 PAs) and will start the year in Triple-A. We added another wrinkle to the competition, though - Wellington Castillo (32) was a non-roster invite and is currently in our minors with a deal that will pay him $1M if he's promoted by the end of April, and will grant him free agency otherwise. Castillo had a brutal 2019 season but we still think he has enough left in the tank to be a contributor, and if Avila falters to start the season we might roll with Castillo in his place.

1B: Ryan McMahon (25)

This spot wasn't up for grabs, and we are hoping McMahon can pick up where he left off last season (126 OPS+ in 65 games with us post-trade deadline), especially now that we're playing him at his natural position as opposed to LF where he played most of last year.

2B: Tristan Gray (24)

A dark horse candidate to make the roster heading into Spring Training, Gray showed us enough in March (95 wRC+ in 44 PAs) to convince us to start the season with him in our lineup. Keep in mind that this spot will be reclaimed once Nick Senzel's elbow heals, likely in mid-May, so this is a temporary move. Let's hope Gray makes the most of it.

SS: Orlando Arcia (25)

Arcia managed to hold onto his spot following a blistering Spring Training performance (195 wRC+ in 39 PAs), as well as our realization that Tommy Edman is still a bit green when it comes to playing SS. We'll give him more reps in Triple-A to get him more comfortable there. In the meantime it'll be Arcia manning short in the majors, but it is a fluid situation, so he shouldn't feel too secure just yet...

3B: Eugenio Suarez (28)

Our All-Star gets to start the season off manning the hot corner, but will slide over to 2B once Senzel gets healthy. We're hoping Suarez gets back to his 2018 form (145 wRC+, 5 WAR) rather than his 2019 form (112 wRC+, 2.7 WAR).

LF: Tony Kemp (28)

This is a temporary solution - if Kemp is still our starting LF by mid-season, something has gone terribly wrong. This spot will eventually be taken by Yordan Alvarez (22), but it is pretty clear to us that he needs to work out some kinks defensively. We'll give him a bit more time in Triple-A before calling him up, at which point Kemp will move to the bench role that he is better-suited for.

CF: Daz Cameron (23)

This is definitely the biggest shocker coming out of ST - we only just acquired Daz a few months ago, and given that he spent all of 2019 at Double-A, we didn't expect him to make the majors until mid-season at the earliest, and more likely next season. However, we realized pretty quickly that our assumption that Luis Gonzalez (24) would be our Opening Day CF was flawed, as he really doesn't have the defensive chops for it. He could probably play CF in a pinch, but given the limited range of our primary corner outfielders, we need a glove-first speedster out there in center, which Gonzalez is not - he also put up a 35 wRC+ in 64 PAs this spring, suggesting his bat might not be ready, either. Meanwhile, Daz had a fantastic Spring Training (147 wRC+ in 67 PAs) and he has the speed and skills to carry the outfield defensively. Our talent evaluators think he's probably ready to be a league-average centerfielder, which is more than we can say about anyone else on our roster, so here he is in our Opening Day lineup - in the leadoff spot, no less!

RF: Pablo Reyes (26)

Another temporary solution, Reyes will eventually be bumped out of the lineup and will serve as an overqualified 4th OF, but for now he's starting in right field. His 128 OPS+ in Triple-A last year, combined with his 114 wRC+ in Spring Training, give us confidence that he can be at least average at the plate while adding decent defensive and baserunning value.

DH: Jesse Winkler (26)

Winkler is one of the few holdovers from last year's Opening Day lineup, and should hopefully get closer to his 2018 form than 2019 (134 OPS+ vs. 103 OPS+). While we'd love to keep him at DH all season, he will unfortunately be forced to stumble around in the outfield soon enough, as the positionless Nate Lowe will be joining the major league roster soon enough. His 86 wRC+ was enough to scare us off from installing him as our Opening Day DH, but if he starts the season off destroying Triple-A like he did last season (155 OPS+, 25 HR, 6.3 WAR) we will be hard-pressed to keep him down there for long. His arrival, along with Alvarez's will push Winkler to the outfield and Reyes and Kemp to the bench (although Winkler struggles against lefties whereas Reyes excels against them, so we may go with a platoon approach).

BN: Enrique Hernandez (28), Jose Siri (25), Christian Arroyo (24), Alex Avila (32)

Hernandez serves as our jack-of-all-trades, with his ability to play anywhere on the diamond except catcher, and will probably earn a few starts against lefties. Siri and Arroyo, meanwhile, are just stopgaps for Reyes and Kemp, respectively, until they return to the bench, at which point Siri and Arroyo will go back to Triple-A to continue developing. Avila was signed to be our backup catcher, but he's on a short leash with several options to replace him in our high minors.

Opening Day Pitching Staff

SP1: Lucas Giolito (25)
SP2: Martin Perez (28)
SP3: Luis Castillo (27)

Our top 3 rotation slots were never in doubt, and each of these guys performed well in Spring Training (FIP- of 81, 51, and 88, respectively). We feel good about having them at the top of our rotation, and barring injury, we see no reason why they couldn't hold onto those 3 spots for the foreseeable future.

SP4: Cionel Perez (23)
SP5: Framber Valdez (26)

These two spots, as discussed previously, were a lot more contentious. We decided pretty quickly that Brett Martin (24) wouldn't be in our Opening Day rotation, and he has graciously accepted his demotion to the minors. That left Perez, Valdez, Julio Urias (23) and Dakota Hudson (25) fighting for the two spots. Urias was the underdog, but his lack of remaining option years meant that we couldn't send him to Triple-A, so we've decided to keep him in our bullpen for now as long relief - however, we may need to make some sort of move eventually, as his stuff doesn't really play up that much in a relief role. Hudson probably deserved one of these spots, but his trade value proved to be too high for us to ignore, so he is no longer with the team (more on that later). That left Perez and Valdez as the winners of the competition, but their hold on the rotation spots is far from secure. If either one falters - which Perez's 121 FIP- in ST suggests could happen - then Urias will be there to pounce, as will several of our young starters in Triple-A.

CL: Ken Giles (29)
RHP: Luke Leftwich (25)
RHP: Ian Hamilton (24)
RHP: Jacob Webb (26)
RHP: Demarcus Evans (23)
RHP: Tommy Kahnle (30)
LHP: Julio Urias (23)

Giles was just acquired recently, and is the best reliever on the team by a fairly wide margin. His grip on the closer spot feels pretty secure. Beyond him, we have a very young, inexperienced, righty-heavy bullpen, with a lot of firepower - expect plenty of strikeouts but also a ton of walks. We have some guys in the minors (including a few lefties) who can step up if any of these guys struggle, but ultimately the bullpen is not currently our strong suit. If we start looking competitive - and especially if we keep blowing late-inning leads - we may look to upgrade through trades, but for now I am content to have the current bullpen mature and develop this season alongside the rest of the team.

Trades

There's only one trade for us to report, but it's a pretty big one:

Reds receive: OF Alex Kirilloff (22)
Twins receive: SP Dakota Hudson (25), SP JB Bukauskas (23), 2B Korry Howell (21), SP Aaron Ashby (21), SP Roniel Raudes (22)

I can definitely see us being raked over the coals by the media for this one ("a 5-for-1 deal for a PROSPECT???"), but I would argue that this is exactly the kind of trade we should be seeking out. Our accelerated rebuild, just 1 year in, has put us in a position where we have a surplus of decent-to-good players who are either in the majors or very close, but a dearth of true star talent. This trade was a move to convert some of that excess good-not-great talent into star power. Hudson was one of 5 pitchers fighting for our last 2 rotation spots, as I have discussed in great detail, and is unlikely to get much better than he currently is; Bukauskas struggled last year in Double-A, and looks like his ceiling is that of a mid-to-bottom rotation arm; Ashby has some great stuff and pitched well last year but also seems likely to have homer and walk troubles, limiting his upside; Raudes is a low-minors finesse pitcher who probably won't ever miss enough bats to be a major league starter. The one wildcard is Howell, who some see as having the potential to be the next Ketel Marte with more speed, but our talent evaluators doubt his bat will even be average, much less star-level. Kiriloff, meanwhile, is a bona fide star in the making, and is as close to a sure thing as you can get. Ranked the #15 prospect in baseball heading into this upcoming season, his hit bat is projected to be up there with Jose Ramirez as one of the best in the league, and his 6'2 frame suggests the potential for more pop than he's shown so far (15 HR, .452 SLG in Double-A last year). He's excelled at every level of pro ball so far, and he'll be starting the season in Triple-A for us, but don't be surprised if he breaks into the majors at some point this year. We definitely gave up a lot of solid prospects in this deal, but it was a quantity-for-quality move that we think makes sense for us given the level and depth of talent we currently have in our organization. We'll make this type of trade as many times as we can find an agreeable trade partner!

Season Outlook

It's always dangerous to put out a bold prediction heading into a season, because there's a lot more downside than upside - if you're right, nobody will really remember or care, but if you're wrong people will make sure you never live it down. That being said, I am going to be cautiously optimistic and say that we will easily beat last season's 64-98 fiasco. I'll stop short of anything bolder than that - the general consensus is that we'll end up right around 70 wins or so, especially given how competitive the other teams in our division are looking. But the fun of a young, unproven roster like ours is that there's a lot of variability - our young guns could completely flop and barely eke out 60 wins, or they could all simultaenously catch fire and get us over .500. You can't predict baseball, and this season in particular could be a wild ride. Buckle up!

[vigilante225]

Nick's Blog Post #15 - April 2020
May 1, 2020
12-14, 3rd in NL Central, 3.5 GB

The first month of the 2020 MLB season is now in the books, and there's lots to discuss, so let's get right into it.

Team Performance

Coming off of a 98-loss season, there were definitely expectations that we would do better this year, but I'm still impressed at how quickly we've started to do better. We're right in the thick of it, just 2 games back of .500 and only 3 behind the 2nd wildcard spot. Even better, our two most fearsome division rivals, the Cardinals and the Brewers, sit at the very bottom of the NL. We're hoping this is just the beginning of our rise towards becoming a contender, and we think there's decent evidence to support the idea that we'll only get better as the season progresses.

In my last post previewing the season, I had written that our bullpen was not our strong suit. One month later, that statement has been proven completely untrue - our bullpen ranks first in the NL in terms of ERA, and has been about as strong as you could possibly hope for. Led by our closer Ken Giles (1.80 ERA, 16 K, 8 SV in 10 IP), the bullpen has performed admirably to start the season. Interestingly, so has our defense - we rank 4th in the NL in defensive efficiency, and 6th in zone rating. Two of our biggest weaknesses from last season have now become strengths. Unfortunately, we haven't been able to take full advantage of this impressive run prevention as our offense has been anemic coming out of the gates. We're 13th in the league in runs scored, and 12th in OPS. We're also 12th in home runs, which is not as much of a concern as the fact that we are 11th in OBP. This offense was intentionally constructed to favour on-base skills over power - the math says that OBP is more valuable than SLG in the context of a good lineup, and we would like to think that our lineup is a good one. It hasn't proven to be that way just yet, but we're hoping that some regression towards the mean plus a few impending lineup tweaks (more on that below) will right the ship for us.

Player Performance

- The first player we profile here needs to be Daz Cameron, who has been our unlikely MVP to start the season. Acquired just a few weeks before Spring Training began, Daz quickly made it clear that he was the best centerfielder on our roster, and has rewarded our faith in him with a masterful opening month: .309/.402/.474, 3 HR, 0.9 WAR, and the NL Rookie of the Month Award! I'm not sure where we would have been without him, but I sure am glad that he's here.

- Another happy surprise who recently arrived is OF Ben Gamel, who our rival Brewers graciously gifted to us via waivers just a few days into the season. He's a guy who can do pretty much everything except hit a lot of homers, and he's made an instant impact with us - in 88 PAs as our starting right fielder he's slashed .325/.398/.481 (149 wRC+) and produced 1.0 WAR. Not bad for a free waiver pickup making the league minimum!

- C James McCann, the supposed solution to our catcher position, has been nothing short of abysmal to start the season. He's slashed .143/.213/.179 with a 30% strikeout rate and no homers in 62 PAs. His track record and relative youth (he's only 29) suggests that this is merely a cold streak that is extra noticeable because it's come at the very beginning of the season, but we'll be monitoring the situation closely - our top catching prospect Meibrys Viloria has a 120 OPS+ in Triple-A so far, and might be getting called up sooner than we previously expected.

- Top prospect 1B Nate Lowe started off in the minors following a weak performance in Spring Training, but couldn't be kept down there for long - he had a 1.321 OPS in his first 12 games, confirming that his Spring Training failures were just a fluke and that he is indeed ready for the majors. We called him up to the majors in the last week of April, and he's already delivered - he's slashed .273/.304/.636 in 23 PAs, and hit a walkoff homer in the bottom of the 9th to win us a game against the Braves. Barring the unexpected, he's in the majors to stay now.

- Our Tristan Gray experiment at 2B did not go very well - he slashed .137/.210/.164 in 21 games before we pulled the plug, sending him down to Triple-A and calling up Tommy Edman to take his place. Edman was down there to get more reps at SS, but 2B is his natural position anyway and the need for him in the majors is more pressing. Once Nick Senzel returns in a few weeks, we may send Edman back down to keep getting him those SS reps, or perhaps he may even take over full-time SS duties from Orlando Arcia depending on how things go in the meantime. Gray, meanwhile, will get some more time to develop in the minors - it was probably unfair of us to throw him to the wolves so early, given his lack of exposure to anything above Double-A, but nothing ventured, nothing gained. In fact, I would argue that the experiment made a lot of sense, and the exact situation played out much better with Daz, so I have no regrets about this one. Gray looks like he will turn into a fine player soon enough, so I am not concerned - I just hope his major league cup of coffee wasn't so traumatizing as to stunt his further development.

- On the pitching side of things, SP Luis Castillo has been a monster to start the season - his 2.42 ERA, 2.40 FIP and 0.9 WAR rank 8th, 5th and 6th in the NL, respectively. At this point it's hard not to see him as our ace, which is what we thought he was before last year's disappointing performance, so it's good to see him starting to confirm our earlier beliefs.

- SP Lucas Giolito, on the other hand, has been rather disappointing so far. He leads the league in losses with 5 in his first 6 starts, but more importantly he's got a 67 ERA+ and a 114 FIP-. We are confident that better days are ahead for him, but he strained his oblique a few days ago which may keep him out for the next 3-4 weeks. He could probably play through it, but given the way he's been pitching it's probably better to just give him this time off to fully recover, rather than risking further injury.

- RP Ian Hamilton has been superb so far this year, pitching to an incredible 0.83 ERA and 0.55 WHIP while leading our bullpen with 21 innings pitched. That's obviously unlikely to be sustained long-term, especially given his .204 BABIP allowed, but his 2.32 FIP suggests that this dominance is not entirely a mirage.

- We're pleased to report that RP Demarcus Evans has also been very good in his own right, with a 129 ERA+ and 52 FIP- to go with 12 K/9 in 14 IP. As a Rule 5 draftee that hadn't pitched above High-A prior to this season, we weren't sure how he was going to pan out, but the early returns are encouraging.

Prospect Performance

- The trio of top prospects in our Triple-A rotation - Darwinzon Hernandez (23), Jonathan Loaisiga (25) and Jackson Kowar (23) - have completely dominated to start the season, with ERA+'s ranging from 173 to 245 and FIP-'s from 54 to 82. They've helped our Triple-A affiliate to a blazing 15-8 start, and could find themselves in the majors before long.

- OF Alex Kirilloff (22) - who is now officially our top prospect not named Nick Senzel - has dominated Triple-A pitching as expected, with a .319/.379/.495 slash line and 1.0 WAR in 104 PAs. He still has room to grow and our outfield picture is already a bit crowded as it stands, so we don't plan to rush him to the majors, but he might force our hand if he keeps hitting like this.

- OF Yordan Alvarez (22) continues to play in Triple-A in order to hone his skills in right field. He hasn't exactly made us regret that choice, as his .195/.293/.414 slash line in 95 PAs doesn't really scream "major league ready". He's been plagued by a .230 BABIP, though, and we know the skills are there, so I'm sure we will be promoting him soon enough.

- 1B Seth Beer (23) has been hot to start the season, with a .304/.432/.536 slash line (153 OPS+) in 17 Double-A appearances, leading us to promote him to Triple-A. He's not the kind of player we need right now - we already have plenty of bat-only 1B/DH type of guys in the majors and high minors - so if he keeps this level of performance up and other teams take notice, we may cash in on him in the trade market.

- CF Brandon Marsh (22) (.346/.398/.506, 136 OPS+ in 88 PAs) and SP Vladmir Gutierrez (23) (74 FIP-, 11.8 K/9 in 23 IP) are both making strong cases to be promoted from Double-A to Triple-A. We have a bit of a logjam in the outfield at Triple-A, but our rotation has a spot available for Gutierrez so we're going to move him up now and see how it goes.

- Recently acquired OF Anderson Comas (20) has had a small-sample-size explosion to start the year, with a BABIP-fueled .375/.444/.554 slash line in his 64 PAs at Single-A. There's no chance this lasts but it's good to see hm doing so well in full-season ball at just 20 years old. His teammate Jelfry Marte (19) is also doing well, with a .333/.387/.488 slash line in 93 PAs, which is an encouraging sign following his struggles at the same level last season (71 OPS+).

- SP Hunter Greene has finally returned after a long recovery following Tommy John surgery. We've decided to develop him as a pitcher full-time, and while his first two starts at High-A have been atrocious (18.69 ERA in 4 IP combined), we're just happy to have him back playing baseball again. He's still ranked as a top-50 prospect in the sport despite his injury woes, and we're optimistic that he can live up to that billing.

Other News

- A number of players across the league have already announced that they will be retiring at the end of this year: C Kurt Suzuki, C Nick Hundley, and SP Ervin Santana. None of them are likely to get a Derek Jeter-style farewell tour, but surely they will be missed.

- Several big name pitchers sustained significant injuries in April that will keep them out for several months or even the whole season, including Aaron Nola, Forrest Whitley, Walker Buehler, and Carlos Carrasco, along with OF Jason Heyward. Wishing a speedy recovery for them all!

- Jose Ramirez is leading the MLB in just about every possible hitting category, with an insane .417/.500/.913 slash line (279 OPS+!) to go along with 12 HR and 3.1 WAR in his first 26 games. That puts him on pace for an inconceivable 19 WAR season! I'm just glad he's in the AL and not the NL...

- SP Clayton Kershaw has regained his peak form to start the season, posting a hilarious 31 K/BB ratioto go along with a 0.70 WHIP and 1.67 ERA. At least he's not in our division...

- The Indians are currently the best in baseball, with a 20-6 record that puts them on pace for 125 wins. This is thanks in no small part to Jose Ramirez's Babe Ruth impression discussed above.

- On the other hand, the new-look, high-spending Cardinals are in dead last in the MLB, with a pitiful 7-19 record. You would think a team that won 88 games last year and added a bunch of expensive free agents (Anthony Rendon, Yasiel Puig and Craig Kimbrel, to name a few) would be playing at a better pace than a 44-win team, but I guess you can't predict baseball. I can't say I'm not enjoying seeing them struggle, although I fear I may live to regret the day I made fun of them for it.

Next Update

Check back next month to see how things went in May, which will (hopefully) include the triumphant return of Nick Senzel and the possible promotion of Yordan Alvarez. Til next time!

[vigilante225]

Nick's Blog Post #16 - May 2020
May 31, 2020
25-29, 4th in NL Central, 6 GB, 19th in Power Rankings

In Greek mythology, Icarus flies too close to the sun due to his hubris, causing him to drown after his wax wings are melted. Our wings haven't been entirely melted, but they've definitely been singed. My tone heading into May was far too optimistic - cocky, even - and only a 10-3 hot streak to end the month saved us from finishing May as one of the worst teams in baseball. Needless to say, I am a lot less confident in the strength of our team now than I was a month ago, but I still do believe there is reason for cautious optimism about the rest of our season. Hopefully this post won't anger the baseball gods as much as last month's post evidently did...

Team Performance

The month of May began with an excuciating 3-12 stretch, with our only wins in that period coming against the lowly Brigadiers (f.k.a the Marlins). A pair of close losses to the Twins was followed by a clean 3-game series sweep at the hands of the Brewers, who finally seemed to find their footing after a slow start to the season. They outscored us 37-4 in those 3 games, reminding us why they won the World Series last year. Interestingly, they're still in last place in the division, so maybe that series wasn't the turning point for them that I had expected it to be. Following that massacre, we were gifted a 3 game series against the Brigadiers, who we handled easily, only allowing 4 runs across the 3 victories. That series proved to be nothing but a short respite from having our butts handed to us, as the Mets immediately proceeded with a 3-game sweep, followed by a 4-game evisceration by the Dodgers. That series in LA was punctuated by a 24-2 loss in which our overtaxed bullpen gave way to two of our position players, who gave up 8 runs as they tried to get the final 4 outs. That game was our rock bottom, luckily, and our fortunes turned around immedately following it. The next series was in San Francisco against the Giants, who we swept with some impressive offensive performances - we scored 30 runs in 3 games, which is more than the total number of runs we had scored in our last 7 games prior to that series (all losses, unsurprisingly). We then beat the Twins in a 1-game series to make up for a rained out game from earlier in the month, and took two out of three at home against the division-leading Cubs. That felt particularly good, especially since one of those wins was an extra-innings walk-off. Next up was a 3 game home series against the Pirates, which featured two walk-off wins and one loss. We closed out the month with 3 games against the Rockies in Colorado, of which we managed to win two. May was truly a tale of two halves, with a brutal 3-12 start followed by a 10-3 finish. We won 5 series (2 sweeps) and lost 4 (3 sweeps). It was a wild way to get there, but in the end we're pretty much right back where we started - slightly below .500, but not fully out of the playoff picture (only 4.5 GB of a Wildcard spot) and not a top-10 team but probably also not a bottom-10 team. It's been an incredibly stressful and frustrating month, and I'm just glad that it's over now with minimal damage done to anything other than my liquor cabinet.

From a team statistics perspective, everything has regressed back towards the mean and things look much more like they did last season than they did last month. Our OBP-heavy approach is paying off, as we now stand 5th in the NL in that category, which has led us to be 7th in the NL in runs scored. On the flip side, our impressive bullpen ERA has imploded, and we have gone from 1st to 13th in the NL in the span of a month. That's right in line with our starters, whose ERA also ranks 13th in the NL. Our defense hasn't given them much help, as we now rank 14th in efficiency and 12th in zone rating, just one month after ranking 6th. We're hoping some recent roster moves - including the return of Lucas Giolito at the end of the month - will help turn things around a bit.

One area of concern, however, is our run differential. It currently stands at -50, which would imply an expected record of 22-32. In other words, we've been "lucky" to be at 25-32, and have outperformed expectations by 3 wins. This may not be fully accurate, though, as we have had a handful of lopsided losses that skew the picture (for example, the 24-2 drubbing we took in L.A.). The numbers may say that we're worse than our record suggests, but I believe in my heart that we're at least as good as our record, if not better! That's not a very objective way to look at things, admittedly, but what can I say - I believe in this team.

Player Performance

- DH Nate Lowe looked good in his first full month of MLB action, posting a .317/.348/.451 line with 2 homers in 89 PAs. He's one of the most well-rounded hitters in baseball, and will likely feature in the heart of our batting order for many years to come.

- OF Jesse Winkler caught fire in May with a .315/.432/.467 slash line and 3 homers in 111 PAs. He's on pace to be much better this year than he was last year, which is great news to us.

- OF Yordan Alvarez was called up halfway through the month, when things looked dire. The easing up of our schedule was probably the biggest factor in our 10-3 finish to the month, but Alvarez certainly played a key role as well - his .352/.435/.611 line with 3 homers in 62 PAs was enough to earn him NL Rookie of the Month honors, defensive abilty be damned. It'll be hard to justify sending him down again this season, unless he falls apart at the plate, so we'll just have to live with mediocre defense in both outfield corners between him and Winkler.

- C Meibrys Viloria made his major league debut midway through the month of May and has instantly made an impact, with back-to-back walk-off hits in wins against the Pirates. His overall slash line (.225/.279/.350) isn't too hot, but he's only had 43 PAs, and he was hitting at a league-average clip in 116 Triple-A PAs before his promotion, so we aren't too concerned. Besides, it's still better than the production we had been getting from the catcher position prior to calling up Viloria - James McCann now has a 50 OPS+ on the season (although his May was much better than his April, with a .730 OPS in May) and Alex Avila was somehow even worse than that (42 OPS+). We dumped his salary in a trade with the White Sox, so it'll be McCann and Viloria splitting the backstop duties going forward.

- 2B/3B Nick Senzel made his long-awaited MLB debut after finally recovering from his elbow injury. He hasn't exactly set the league on fire just yet - his .195/.244/.220 slash line in 45 PAs is good for a 30 OPS+ - but he's surely still rusty given how long it's been since he last played. Once he shakes the rust off, we're confident he'll start mashing again - and that day can't come soon enough!

- 3B Eugenio Suarez and 1B Ryan McMahon have both struggled to start the season, which has caused us some concern. Suarez hasn't been terrible (80 OPS+ with 8 HR in 215 PAs) and he's a solid defender at 3B but he's certainly not looking like an All-Star at the moment, while McMahon has been pretty atrocious (64 OPS+ with 4 HR in 231 PAs) and is exclusively a first baseman at this point, meaning his value is very limited when he's not hitting well. We fully expect both to revert to their usual selves and start hitting again soon, so neither of their jobs are in jeopardy at the moment, but it's definitely a situation worth monitoring.

- Our starters regressed in May, with each of them hovering around league-average performance, with a few notable exceptions. Martin Perez had a very up-and-down month, with two ugly outings (9 ER in 10 IP combined) and 4 good-to-amazing outings (2 ER in 23 IP combined). He doesn't get a lot of strikeouts, but he does limit homers, so as long as he can keep his walk rate reasonably low and continue to strand baserunners, he should probably be able to keep outperforming his FIP. Cionel Perez (no relation), on the other hand, has suffered a major fall from grace, following up a decent April with an atrocious May and earning himself a demotion to Triple-A. He gave up 16 runs in 9 IP across 3 starts in May, and at that point it was impossible to justify keeping him in the majors given that he's our 5th starter and we'd like to be competitive this year. He hasn't fared much better in the minors since his demotion, with 6 ER in 7 IP, although that may have been a case of bad luck given his 9 K/9 and 1.14 WHIP in the same period. We're hoping he irons things out in the minors and gets himself back to a level that makes him rosterable, but as of now we don't plan to call him up anytime soon barring multiple injuries.

- Our top SP prospect Darwinzon Hernandez was called up for a cup of coffee early on in the month to fill in for the injured Lucas Giolito and Julio Urias - who has a torn flexor tendon in his elbow and will be out for the year, which potentially spells the end of his brief tenure in Cincinnati. Hernandez performed admirably in his brief stint in the majors, with a 2.5 K/BB ratio and a league-average FIP, albeit with a slightly elevated 4.74 ERA. He's back in the minors now but will definitely be the next starter called up in the event of an injury, given Urias's season-ending elbow problems and Cionel Perez's performance woes.

Prospect Performance

- SPs Jonathan Loaisiga (25) and Jackson Kowar (23) continue to look great against Triple-A hitters, with WHIPs below 1.20 and K/BB ratios in the 4-5 range in May. Vladmir Gutierrez (24) and Corbin Martin (24) have now joined them in that regard - Gutierrez was promoted from Double-A at the end of April and hasn't missed a beat, while Martin missed time with a strained triceps suffered in April but has come back strong - and combined with Darwinzon Hernandez (23), they form what has to be the best rotation in Triple-A (technically the team ranks 3rd in the league in starter ERA, but from a talent perspective it's hard to beat us).

- SS Nick Gordon (24) has been on fire to start the season, posting a .362/.380/.522 slash line (157 OPS+) in 71 PAs. His path to more playing time is blocked by several higher-upside prospects, but if he keeps this up he'll be hard to ignore.

- C Daulton Varsho (23) earned himself a promotion to Triple-A with a solid start to the season in Double-A (120 OPS+ as a catcher), which worked out well since Meibrys Viloria got called up to to the majors and left a hole in Triple-A. However, disaster struck and Varsho broke his elbow in what was to be his last Double-A game, meaning he will be out for the rest of the season.

- Similarly, IF Nick Solak (25) was continuing to mash in Triple-A (151 OPS+ in 211 PAs) and was making a strong case for a promotion - he even managed to win the International League's Batter of the Month award for May - until he fractured his wrist on May 31st, which will keep him out at least a month if not longer. His high-OBP approach would be a great fit on our major league team, so we're eager for him to return.

- CF T.J. Friedl (24) and OF Brandon Marsh (22) both looked great in May, and while they had different methods of getting there (Friedl had a 14% BB rate and Marsh had 6 HR), they each ended up with a wRC+ of about 135 for the month. Friedl is probably next man up in centerfield if Daz Cameron goes down, so we're promoting him to Triple-A starting in June to make sure he can handle elevated competition. Marsh, meanwhile, will continue to play in Double-A so that he can get more centerfield reps, as we think he has the tools for it but doesn't have enough experience there yet. If he develops the way we think he can, he could be an elite major league CF as early as next season.

- Our High-A outfield took the Florida State League by storm in May, with Brewer Hicklen (24) and Dashawn Keirsey (23) each winning a Player of the Week award and producing a wRC+ between 140 and 150 during the month. Add to the mix Mike Siani (20) (110 wRC+ in 105 PAs) and OF Cole Roederer (20) (119 wRC+ in 54 PAs following demotion from Double-A) and you've got four outfielders putting up big numbers. It's no wonder the team is 31-20 and just 0.5 GB of first place.

- IF Julio Gonzalez (24) has been the best player on our Single-A team, with a 125 OPS+ on the season and on pace for 5 WAR. He's old for the league, so we're going to move him up to Double-A to see if he's for real.

Trades

No month would be complete without a trade! We only made one trade of note this time around, not including the salary dump of Al Avila mentioned earlier.

Reds receive: SP Cal Quantrill (25), SP David Bednar (25)
Padres receive: SS Orlando Arcia (25), 2B/SS Taylor Walls (23)

When Nick Senzel was ready to make his major league debut, we were faced with a tough choice: we could either demote Tommy Edman - who has played very well so far in the majors (113 OPS+, 0.8 WAR in 30 games) - in order to preserve the lineup spot of Arcia, who hasn't been so great (86 OPS+, 0.6 WAR in 41 games), or we could shift Edman up the defensive spectrum from 2B to SS and cash in on Arcia to upgrade our rotation. Ok, so it wasn't actually that tough a choice. The hard part was letting go of Walls, who looks like he will be a fine SS himself in the not-too-distant future, but we have a lot of light-hitting middle infielders in our system already and his path to a spot in our lineup wasn't very obvious. Quantrill looks like someone who will make us forget all about Arcia and Walls in short order - his most recent start for us was a 6.2 IP, 3 K, 6 H, 1 ER gem, and his season stats thus far are spectacular: 2.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 2.3 K/BB. His FIP is around league average, which is where it was last year as well, so we're not fooling ourselves into thinking we acquired an ace here, but his 5-pitch repertoire, outstanding control, excellent makeup, relative youth and solid stats to start the year combine to convince us that we have a solid #3/4 starter on our hands. The other player we acquired, Bednar, is a bit of a longshot to reach his potential, given that he's 25 years old, but we see him as a back-end starter if he can hit his ceiling. He'll be starting for us in Double-A.

League News

- Christian Yelich has emerged as a disruptor to Jose Ramirez's Triple Crown bid - Yelich has an incredible .374 batting average on the season, .003 above Ramirez. Meanwhile, Alex Verdugo has become the league leader in OBP at .451 - exactly .001 higher than Ramirez. Obviously Ramirez has unquestioningly been the best player in the league this season - his 4.6 WAR is a full win higher than 2nd place (Yelich, naturally) - and there's lots of time left in the season, but it would be hilarious if he loses out on both the traditional and sabermetric Triple Crowns by such narrow margins. Verdugo is having quite a breakout season of his own - he's on pace for 8 WAR - which hurts a bit to see since we had a chance to acquire him last year, and not a day goes by where I don't regret turning that opportunity down...but that's a story I'll save for my memoir.

- The Cleveland Indians continue to be the best team in baseball, with a 36-15 record. This is despite injuries to 4 (!) of their starting pitchers. Baseball is as much a team sport as any out there, but it really seems like Jose Ramirez has found a way to single-handedly carry his team...

- On the other side of the ledger, the Brigadiers have reclaimed their rightful place as the worst team in baseball. The only things uglier than their 17-35 record are their new name, new jerseys, and new logo.

Next Update

Check back next month for an update on how the month of June goes, including a discussion on the amateur draft that's coming up next week - we have the 4th overall pick, and there's at least 4 or 5 prospects who we'd be happy with in that slot, so we're looking forward to it. Til next time!

[vigilante225]

Nick's Blog Post #17 - June 2020
June 30, 2020
38-41, 3rd in NL Central, 4.5 GB Div, 5 GB WC, 13th in Power Rankings

There's a ton to discuss this month, so I apologize in advance for the size of this post - hopefully you'll manage to finish reading it before the end of next month!

Team Performance

For the first time since I began these monthly updates at the start of the 2019 season, we had a monthly record above .500! I won't make the mistake of reading into it too much or making any proclamations that this represents a turning point, but I'll admit that I'm quite proud of how far we've come - we've gone from a 64-98 record last year to what is now an approximately league-average team, and we appear to be on an upward trajectory given the team's youth and inexperience.

The month started with a wild 3-game series on the road against the mediocre Diamondbacks that featured two games in which both teams scored double-digit runs. We won two of three in that series (one of which featured a 5-for-5 performance from Eugenio Suarez), then went 1-2 in San Diego against the Padres, who are having an incredible season so far.

Next we headed home for three games against the middling Rockies, of which we won two - including a masterful complete game 3-hit shutout by Martin Perez that we won 2-0. Our homestand continued with three games against the underperforming Cardinals - we won the first game then dropped the next two, largely due to our overtaxed bullpen.

Following that, we headed to Kansas City for two interleague games against the surprisingly strong Royals. We lost the first game by 7 runs, then came right back and beat them in the 2nd game by 7 runs. Our road trip continued with three games against the division-leading Pirates, who we managed to cleanly sweep, including a 6-inning 4-hit shutout effort from Luis Castillo in a 6-0 win.

Our high from the road sweep in Pittsburgh didn't last for long, though - the next series was two interleague games at home against the lowly Tigers, and we lost both games by one run. Perhaps we were due for some bad luck, given how our record has been outperforming our run differential, but this outcome definitely stung - so much that we decided to shake up the roster a bit (more on that later). We bounced back quickly, though, beating the division rival Cubs in 3 of 4 games in our next series. It was an especially exciting series, with one win coming thanks to Lucas Giolito pitching 5 scoreless innings and Nick Senzel collecting 5 RBIs off of 4 doubles in a 13-4 win, then winning the next game 7-6 thanks to a walk-off extra-innings homer by Tommy Edman to cap off the series. We then hit the road for a 3 game series against the Braves, which we are currently in the midst of and have dropped the first two games.

From a statistics perspective, everything is right around where it was at the end of last month, give or take. We're now 3rd in the NL in OBP, though only 7th in runs scored and 8th in OPS. There is a distinct lack of power in our lineup, and we rank 12th in HR. We may need to slightly re-think our OBP-centric strategy given how it's not really translating into the run production that we were hoping for. On the other side of the diamond, our ERA is still near the bottom of the league, as is our defense. We've made some changes recently that should help both of those categories going forward, which we'll discuss later.

Fascinatingly, we're still badly outperforming our run differential (-61), which gives us an expected record of 34-45; our +4 record difference is one of the highest in the majors, but the culprit isn't clear. We only have a 10-13 record in 1-run games, and our 5-2 record in extra innings games helps but doesn't fully explain our luck. I guess for now all we can do is hope our luck doesn't suddenly disappear...

Player Performance

- OF Yordan Alvarez had another fantastic month: .326/.389/.684 with 9 HR in 108 PAs. That was enough to win him the NL Rookie of the Month honors for the 2nd month in a row. We probably look dumb for starting him off in the minors to give him time to work on his defense, but I'm just glad he's doing so well now.

- 2B Nick Senzel gave Alvarez a run for his money for the Rookie of the Month award in June, posting a ridiculous stat line of his own: .322/.413/.589 with 4 HR in 104 PAs. Between Senzel, Alvarez, CF Daz Cameron (who is still hitting very well and is on pace for 4 WAR this season) and our various other rookies, we may have a monopoly on NL Rookie of the Year votes at year-end!

- 1B/OF Jesse Winkler continued his strong season with an impressive line in June: .345/.411/.464 with 3 HR in 95 PAs. He now has a 127 OPS+ for the year, a big step up from his 103 OPS+ last season. With a .400 OBP and .420 SLG, he's the poster child for our team focus on getting on-base without worrying much about power.

- SP Martin Perez was fantastic in June, with 4 great starts (including the complete game shutout) and 1 brutal outing that skews his overall numbers for the month. Even still, his 130 ERA+ and 65 FIP- in 30 IP for the month are nothing to sneeze at.

- SP Lucas Giolito had one of the odder months in recent memory. He started it off with a game in which he gave up 7 runs and was pulled without recording a single out (we somehow managed to win that one 19-15). His next 3 starts each ended in the 3rd inning as he experienced back and oblique pain each time and had to come out of the game. His last two outings were great, though, with a combined 8 H and 1 ER in 12 innings across the two starts. Can that be considered a good month? I have no idea what to make of it. Let's just hope he can put all those injury woes behind him.

Prospect Performance

- SP Corbin Martin (24, AAA) showed no signs of lingering issues from the triceps strain he suffered earlier in the season - he was unhittable in June, pulling off 6 straight starts of at least 5 IP and 1 ER or less (7 straight including his final start in May). His 1.19 WHIP and 3.1 K/BB ratio for the month suggest that it wasn't a fluke, either.

- CF Brandon Marsh (22, AAA) earned a call-up to Triple-A near the end of the month, as his performance in Double-A was too good to ignore. His final stats there are as follows: .307/.364/.510, 11 HR in 283 PAs. He looks like he could be a star, with top-end speed and the defensive instincts and arm to play centerfield.

- SP Garrett Whitlock (24, AA) turned some heads in June, with a 1.61 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 28 IP across 5 starts. We would probably promote him to Triple-A if we had a spot in our rotation for him there (what a nice problem for us to have).

- SS Jelfry Marte (19, A) slumped badly in June, with an anemic .179/.241/.274 slash line in 119 PAs. He had started the season off so well, so it's disappointing to see him take this step back, but he's still just 19 years old so maybe I just need to be more patient.

Amateur Draft

This year we were in the enviable position of having the 4th overall pick despite currently being near .500, and we had no intention of squandering this great opportunity to add talent to our organization. We invested heavily in amateur scouting this year, and came into the draft with the funds to offer plentiful bonuses. Here's a few of the highlights from the draft:

- With the first overall pick, the White Sox selected 22 year old 3B Ed Bondi, who looks like he could be a future All-Star with an incredible arm and bat.

- Teams always say they got the player who was at the top of their draft board, but this time we really mean it. 18 year old SS Alex Greene was the best prospect in the draft, in our opinion, and he was still available when it was our turn to draft. He's a top-notch athlete who could play any position on the diamond and could even be a decent pitcher if we developed him that way, but his bat is arguably the most exciting part of his profile - he looks like he could develop into the next Manny Machado. He's only 18 years old, though, and is still incredibly raw, so we'll need to be patient - but the sky is the limit for Greene.

- Our 2nd rounder was used on 18 year old SP Hank Bearden. I typically don't like allocating resources to low-minors pitching prospects, much less high school pitchers, but I'm starting to realize how rare - and expensive - top-talent pitching is, so there is rationale for investing in pitchers early before they break out and become prohibitively expensive. That being said, we may find ourselves using Bearden as a trade chip rather than keeping him and developing him if we find that the industry values him higher than we do. We see him as being a mid-rotation starter at best, with 4 decent pitches but nothing elite.

- 20 year old CF Levi Usher was taken with our 3rd round pick, and cost us a pretty penny - $3.5 million in bonus money, to be exact. He's a top-notch athlete who could already play above-average centerfield defense today, but his bat gets mixed reviews. He won't need to hit a ton to justify playing him thanks to his glove and his wheels, but it would certainly help if he also develop the power that some in the industry project.

- With our 4th rounder we took another centerfielder, 21 year old Zach DeLoach. He's also likely to stick in CF, albeit without the elite range of Usher, but his bat looks even more promising - his upside is similar to that of Daz Cameron, who is currently manning centerfield for us with a .294/.399/.412 slash line.

- In the 5th round we took an intriguing 18 year old named Kishon Frett, who looks like he'll be a league-average hitter with elite speed while being able to play literally every position - even catcher! We're developing him as a 2B for now, as he looks like a Ben Zobrist type (i.e. good at every position but not an elite SS/CF).

- Outside of the first 5 rounds, our biggest steals were probably 3B/OF Ethan Long (19, 8th round) and OF Jovan Gill (18, 30th round), who were both primarily seen as mediocre pitchers coming into the draft but we saw their potential as position players/hitters and pounced on them in the later rounds. Keep these names in mind - they may one day be seen as textbook examples of late-round success stories.

Trades

We made double-digit trades in June, and while I'll spare you the nitty-gritty details of the smaller ones, there are a handful that are worth digging into:

Reds receive: SP Tyler Glasnow (26)
Rays receive: 1B Ryan McMahon (25), RP Tommy Eveld (26)

Following two straight losses to the Tigers, it felt like we needed to make a change, and the Rays gave us the opportunity by offering up Glasnow in exchange for McMahon. It's entirely possible that McMahon makes us regret this trade in the future, as he's got the tools and ability to become a star, but we got tired of waiting for him to start producing. He now has over 1000 major league PAs under his belt, with only 0.3 total WAR and a career OPS+ of 90. Glasnow, meanwhile, is a league-average starter at worst, and could be much more than that. He's on pace for over 4 WAR this season, represents an immediate upgrade to our rotation, and he's still got 3 years of control left after this one, so we like what we got in this trade.

Making this trade also allows us to make moves across our roster that result in upgrades all around. Winkler has been shifted from LF to 1B to replace McMahon, which is certainly cause for celebration for our pitching staff. Taking his place in the outfield is Alex Kirilloff, who was doing too much damage to Triple-A pitchers to ignore (.344/.415/.530, 8 HR in 288 PAs in AAA). He hasn't yet reached his ceiling, but he immediately represents a defensive upgrade over Winkler, and McMahon set the offensive bar low enough so I am sure Kirilloff will be a massive upgrade at the plate too.

Meanwhile, Glasnow's arrival pushes Framber Valdez to the bullpen, which is a much better fit for him - his superb 3-pitch mix, questionable control, and relative lack of stamina make him a great candidate to have more success as a reliever than a starter. It also helps that he's a lefty with swing-and-miss stuff, which is something that our bullpen has lacked throughout this season.

Reds receive: OF Josh Naylor (23)
Padres receive: 1B J.J. Matijevic (24), RP Eduardo Jimenez (25)

This may seem like an odd trade given the way our roster has been constructed - Naylor is basically a close of Yordan Alvarez, and we already have long-term solutions at LF, RF, 1B and DH - but we couldn't pass up the opportunity to acquire a young, controllable hitter with a bat as good as Naylor's. He's adequate defensively in the outfield, and he's not fast but he's a smart baserunner, so he isn't quite a bat-only player. For now he will serve primarily as a pinch hitter, and may get some at-bats against lefties in Jesse Winkler's place. He's a very well-rounded hitter who hits for both average and power while also drawing his fair share of walks - guys like him will always find a way to get at-bats.

Naylor didn't come cheap, though, as Matijevic looks like he could be a real impact player - he already has 20 HR in ~250 PAs across Triple-A and Double-A this season - but we think Naylor has a higher ceiling. Jimenez was acquired by us from the Tigers earlier in the season and looks like a rather average middle reliever, so that was no great loss.

Reds receive: SP David Peterson (24, NYM), SP Erik Allee (23, NYM), RP Ryan Gilliam (23, NYM), RP Ryder Ryan (25, NYM)
Mets receive: C Kevynn Arias (23, CIN), SP Moises Gomez (23, CIN), OF Edward Olivares (24, SD)
Padres receive: CF Stuart Fairchild (24, CIN)

This trade is a bit confusing, but the takeaway here is that we acquired two SP prospects, one RP prospect, and one major league reliever in exchange for 3 middling prospects.

The real prize here is Peterson, who isn't as sexy as the typical top pitching prospects but has a real chance at being a #1/2 starter thanks to his superb control and his ability to suppress home runs. He only sits 90-92 MPH with his fastball and has 4 decent pitches, but he rarely gives up walks or homers, and has the stamina to go deep into games. He's in Double-A for now, but could probably be pitching in Triple-A tomorrow without skipping a beat.

Allee, meanwhile, is a power pitcher who can touch 100 MPH but control and home run concerns may eventually relegate him to the bullpen; we'll be starting him off in Single-A given his struggles in Double-A so far this season. Gilliam looks like he'll end up being a league average middle reliever, though he has a ways to go in his development - he's currently pitching in High-A. Ryan has the potential to be a high-leverage reliever thanks to some nasty stuff and decent control - he'll be in Triple-A for now, but may be called up at some point.

Reds receive: SP Alex Faedo (24), RP Zac Houston (25)
Tigers receive: 3B Kevin Beltre (23), SP Packy Naughton (24), RP Shea Spitzbarth (25), C Hunter Oliver (22)

This was another prospects-for-prospects deal in which we feel we got the best players in the trade.

Beltre has had two straight superb seasons at High-A, but we just don't see him getting much better than he is now, so we were happy to send him to a team who sees more in him. Naughton could turn into a decent starter, but he's already 24 and hasn't pitcched above Single-A, so the odds of him developing are low in my opinion. Spitzbarth is a tweener pitcher, who probably isn't electric enough to be a high-leverage reliever but probably doesn't have the stamina or pitch mix to be a great option as a starter - he's good, but we're not too sad about losing him. Oliver is a low-minors catching prospect without much of a track record, and we don't think he'll ever hit well enough to be an everyday player, especially given his defensive abilities behind the plate are only average.

Faedo was a first-rounder in 2017, and since then he's had mixed results. He was really starting to break out this year, with an 88 FIP- and 3.6 K/BB ratio in 93 IP in Double-A, so we're surprised that the Tigers were willing to part with him. We won't look a gift horse in the mouth, though. Faedo is instantly one of our top pitching prospects, and could be a mid-rotation starter or better if his stuff develops as expected. He's always been great at limiting walks but he hasn't generated a ton of strikeouts historically, so his stuff will need to get a bit better in order for him to hit his ceiling. We'll start him off in Double-A, if only due to a lack of space in our Triple-A rotation. Zac Houston, meanwhile, was a stud for Detroit last year with his 3 plus-plus pitches generating a ton of strikeouts (12 K/9, 2.21 ERA in 40 IP in 2019). He has struggled to start this season, however, so we'll let him build his confidence back up in our Triple-A bullpen, but we're sure that he'll be back in the majors before long.

Reds receive: OF Cornelius Randolph (23), RP Jake Diekman (33), IF Jose Antonio Gomez (23), RP Edgar Garcia (23)
Phillies receive: CF Michael Beltre (24), C Jose Yonayker Garcia (25), SS Jose Rondon (26)

Our end of this trade looks good from a name recognition perspective, but it's one that we could eventually come to regret. Beltre is relatively unknown but has two straight years of strong performance at High-A, and has the tools to stick in center field. We don't think his bat will ever be good enough to make him an everyday player, but the industry is higher on him than we are, and if they're right about him then we just gave up a very valuable asset. On the other hand, Randolph is a well-known prospect given that he was a top-10 draft pick in 2015, but hasn't necessarily produced at a level commeasurate with that status. His best season came last year, when he produced a 116 OPS+ in Double-A as a 22 year old, but he's fallen off a bit this year and has only managed a 92 OPS+. Despite that, we're still starting him off in Triple-A, but will monitor his performance closely and will demote him if need be. He's decently athletic but won't ever be a centerfielder, so the pressure is on his bat to carry him to the majors.

Regarding the other players we received, Gomez is a low-power middle infielder who's posted a .400 OBP in Double-A so far this year, and may profile better as a utility infielder rather than a starter. Diekman is an electric power pitching lefty with control issues who hasn't really pitched well since 2018, but could still be an asset to our bullpen as long as he can get his walks down a bit. Garcia is currently in Double-A and looks like he'll be a decent middle reliever with 3 solid pitches.

Reds receive: 2B Luis Rengifo (23)
Angels receive: OF Jose Siri (25), 1B Gavin LaValley (25)

Siri was disappointing in his brief major league stint last season, and we don't see him getting much better than he already is, while LaValley has had success in the low minors with some decent power but he's already 25 and doesn't have the kind of bat that would justify his lack of baserunning and defensive value. Rengifo, on the other hand, is a switch-hitter who has had success against Triple-A pitching both this year and last year (albeit with a lack of home run power), despite being only 23 years old this season, and he's a solid baserunner and can play anywhere in the infield, making him a high-floor prospect. His lack of power caps his upside and he'll likely wind up a utility infielder rather than an everyday player, but that's more than we can say about the guys we gave up in this trade.

Reds receive: RP Davon LeDay (22), SP Alex Lange (24)
Cubs receive: RP DeMarcus Evans (23), RP Tommy Kahnle (30), SP Gray Fenter (24)

This move was primarily motivated by 40-man roster constraints, but we still managed to add some talent to our organization. LeDay was a 7th round pick in 2019 and has impressed in his brief professional career. He's only got two pitches - a fastball and a slider - but both are nasty enough to carry him to a high-leverage role in the future, assuming he can get his walks under control. LeDay will be spending the rest of the season in High-A. Lange looks like he'll be a 3-pitch back-end starter who doesn't have crazy peripherals but eats innings. He will continue to pitch in Double-A for the remainder of the season.

Evans may end up being the best player in this trade when it's all said and done, but he's struggled in the majors this year (understandably, since he's only 23 and never got above High-A before this season) but we couldn't send him to the minors since he was a Rule 5 draft pick. Given that we are now somewhat competitive, we didn't want to keep trotting him out there in major league games, so we made the tough decision to move on from him. Kahnle is a decent reliever, but he's been nothing special this year and he's a righty who is out of minor league options, so his value to us was limited. Fenter is a 24 year old starter who struggled in Single-A this season, and is unlikely to be a major leaguer in our opinion.

This wasn't a great trade on the whole, but given our roster constraints we may have eventually been forced to send Evans back to the team we drafted him from and/or DFA Kahnle, so in that context we were happy to get a decent return for them.

Along with the trades discussed above, we also acquired several relievers in smaller deals: Trevor May (30, MLB), Connor Sadzeck (28, MLB), Justin Lawrence (25, AA), and Ben Bowden (25, AA). None of those trades required us to give up any players or prospects of note.

Next Update

If you're reading this, congratulations - you made it all the way through this update! If you still have the eyesight for it, check back next month for an update on how July went, which is sure to be juicy - between the July 2 international free agency period and the upcoming trade deadline, the next post might end up being even longer than this one!