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Old 09-23-2019, 03:09 PM   #61
ElementalKnight
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Originally Posted by Stick50 View Post
Ok so one of the basic strategies here is... "buy low/sell hi"... simple enough right

So here are my 2 questions...

1- With... 600+?? live cards (and 2k plus cards total?) how in the world are you able to identify a "good deal" that quickly? Do you have all the ... current... prices memorized?

2- How many cards do you have any any given time? I often find myself selling off 40's and 50's as they tend to clog things up. This is obviously the wrong way to do things (by me)
Good questions.

1. I limit my scope. I hone in on things I can focus on and understand, and I learn what good deals look like for that narrower scope. I don't deal with live cards much at all precisely because they change too much. This is one reason why I started by selling historical silvers, and I focused on a particularly narrow group of them at the beginning (like Tim Raines, Larry Walker, Ozzie Smith, Jose Oquendo, Yogi Berra, Keith Hernandez, etc.). They're cards I saw as being around the same value, and I could track their fluctuations more easily.

Collections have actually been awesome for me for this reason. I can focus on the bottleneck players. There's tons of value there, and I don't need to know absolutely everything in the game. I've obviously picked up a lot of knowledge over time, but if I walked into trading live players even today, I wouldn't do very well.

2. I have 1871 unique cards, and, I don't know, maybe 3000 total? I recently liquidated a lot of what I was holding, so it's a lower number than it's been in a while. Because I don't buy packs, I tend not to have many excess irons and such. I still do have some from when I was floorscraping in March and April just on the off chance that they hit bronze.

I think it's totally reasonable to quick sell cards if it's not worth your time to list them. Nothing wrong with that.
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Old 09-24-2019, 10:38 AM   #62
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Originally Posted by ElementalKnight View Post
Good questions.

1. I limit my scope.

.
So did you monitor... 20 cards? 50? The main reason i ask is... Like a lot of people you might have an "idea" what a card sells for, but you might not see that card again for a week... or more.. Isnt it hard to determine current "market value" if you dont see card all the time.

Also.. Most people dont "let cards run" anymore... Most are BIN... I would think the people who list them BIN prolly use the 7 day average or something to base a price on it. If they do that (7 day average) how many real bargains are there? If you bought a card at the 7 day average, obviously you would have to list to for... 25% more? to make anything. Meanwhile here comes along another guy who lists a card at the 7 day average, and you are 25% high.

You have done it so obviously it works but.... Have you somehow identified RARER cards that dont come up for auction as often and hence... you can be 25% higher then the norm.... IE if someone really wants that... 80 Gwynn.... they will pay for it becasue... you just "never see that card"
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Old 09-24-2019, 10:55 AM   #63
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Spend two weeks trying to complete the big collection missions and it will become second-nature to know what cards don't show up often and when they do will sell for well over the listed last 7. I can list most off the top of my head now
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Old 09-24-2019, 12:31 PM   #64
ElementalKnight
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So did you monitor... 20 cards? 50? The main reason i ask is... Like a lot of people you might have an "idea" what a card sells for, but you might not see that card again for a week... or more.. Isnt it hard to determine current "market value" if you dont see card all the time.

Also.. Most people dont "let cards run" anymore... Most are BIN... I would think the people who list them BIN prolly use the 7 day average or something to base a price on it. If they do that (7 day average) how many real bargains are there? If you bought a card at the 7 day average, obviously you would have to list to for... 25% more? to make anything. Meanwhile here comes along another guy who lists a card at the 7 day average, and you are 25% high.

You have done it so obviously it works but.... Have you somehow identified RARER cards that dont come up for auction as often and hence... you can be 25% higher then the norm.... IE if someone really wants that... 80 Gwynn.... they will pay for it becasue... you just "never see that card"
I monitored about 10–15 historical silvers closely at first, and I upped it to 40–50 when I realized I could effectively and quickly do it. With collections, this is way easier. Like dkgo said, it's straightforward to see what's rare, and it's easy to predict what will be rare from looking at what's required for the collections.

As for understanding what something sells for, there's a lot to say. Some of this was based on hunches I had, and some of it was based on experience and testing. The case you gave is actually a more straightforward one: if I saw a card that wasn't around for a whole week (which in silver wasn't a common occurrence), I'd jack that price up.

When you're flipping cards exclusively, you're completely dependent on the market for your supply. That's a weird position to be in. And when scarcity is part of what makes your business work, you have to be acutely aware of supply. If a whole bunch of supply shows up at once, it can seriously mess up your business model.

The most important insight I picked up from my experience is that the last 7 price doesn't matter. As a seller, free your mind of the last 7 price. Supply matters. Demand sometimes matters, but that's why it's good to focus on things you think will be in demand. If people want something, and they keep looking and it's not there, they'll become increasingly willing to pay more.

So it's not just that I observe what people are willing to pay. I try to _create_ prices that people are willing to pay.

Here's my most notorious example: I was the one listing various White Sox diamonds for 100k PP, and golds for 50k PP. I did not expect them to sell at those prices. Why did I do this? Two reasons:

1. No one had a clue where things were going to settle from the first collections—that stuff was nuts. I was trying to frame the market. For those that follow hockey, people have been talking about this with respect to the Mitch Marner and Brayden Point contracts. Marner got his number out there in the media and got nearly 11M, and TBL got their number out there and Point got less than 7M.

Put another way, I was trying to set a price that looked absurd so I could better get away with selling things at the prices I wanted. If the max price on the market is 100k, 50k doesn't look so bad. 80k might even not look bad for some buyers. People always need a price they can point out as being too high—"At least I'm not paying that!". If the highest price anyone had ever seen was 50k, things might have settled in lower. There are obviously other factors in determining price that are relevant here, so it's tough to say how much impact what I did had, but I'd do it again in the same situation.

2. Say one of those _does_ sell. That's a huge windfall, and it's information. I'm routinely testing higher prices to see what people will do. I have a much better sense of that now, for sure. I sold multiple Sherm Lollars for 50k that I never expected would move at that price. That's valuable info.

In the White Sox example, I was also buying up what I considered cheap supply. People wanted Walsh _immediately_. Walsh was an end game card. You required one of Wilbur Wood, Gossage, or Forster to do that. So I bought up the ones that came along, because no one was daring to put those up for more than like 20k–30k (and much lower in many cases). I sold several Wilbur Woods for 70k that way.

As a buyer or a seller, being patient, and putting yourself in a position where you can be patient, is far and away the most important factor to getting the prices you want. I'm patient, but if my stuff doesn't sell AND more supply comes along, I have to drop my prices. If more supply doesn't come along, buyers will cave before I do.

Also, you should set a BIN price nearly 100% of the time. Some people want their cards now, and they're willing to pay a premium to get them now. You're hampering your own market reach by not putting a BIN.
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Old 09-24-2019, 12:56 PM   #65
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It only takes one. If you have no immediate need for PP then patience pays.

I sold a perfect ruth for 300K after they were regularly available for 130K just because it happened to be the only one on the market and somebody decided they needed it asap
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Old 09-24-2019, 02:39 PM   #66
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Honestly:

1. Awesome FF/WoW themed league
2. Well done on your patience and effort
3. This is why I hate I don't have access while at work Where's that app!
4. I wish I had been more aggressive early on with stocking up historicals if for nothing else than my own missions I want to complete.
5. Now to take the next bit of PP and leverage it for awhile.
6. And thanks for sharing your hard work.

I've managed to field a PL team on $20 I spent to get a 2 players I wanted just a bit early...Lou B. and Sam Rice. So I still consider it F2P for the most part tho technically I spent something. Hitting is competitive on the contact/gap/def team and occasionally drops me in the playoffs. But I'm at a point now where my pitching just isn't good enough to win anything once in the playoffs, and upgrading that takes considerable PP.
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Old 09-24-2019, 03:15 PM   #67
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Congratulations on your success.

Many scalpers do well in real life using similar tactics. If the development team wishes to reduce the market-bloat caused by manipulation in the future, they can make the following change to the code:

1. Simply disallow users from setting a minimum bid.
2. Automatically set it to the quick-sell minimum (5/25/100/1000/4000/20000). This could be made dynamic to adjust for variable values of live cards.
3. To avoid overly penalizing scalpers or devaluing cards, the poster could still be allowed to set a secret reserve minimum bid. To be fair to potential buyers, there could be a notation as to whether an auction has a reserve value attached to it (without revealing what it is).

IMO, this would improve the overall user experience of the AH.

That's all I have to say about this subject.
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Old 09-24-2019, 03:40 PM   #68
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Great posts. Thanks for sharing!

I believed you from the first post just b/c you mentioned playing the market in Eve. Compared to grinding isk on the Eve market, flipping cards in Perfect Team is a cake walk. The only thing that surprised me is that you'd post about it!

You mentioned that the there was a post from the devs about more effective market searching. Anyone have a link to that?
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Old 09-24-2019, 06:05 PM   #69
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Anyone have a link to that?
I guess you're searching for this one? https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=301449
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Old 09-24-2019, 06:13 PM   #70
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I surrender. I did not watch every page, so I can't verify that you never spent money. BUT, after watching many, many pages of transactions, I believe your claims. I apologize for my skeptical attitude.

I could not have done what you did. First of all, I sleep more than 4-5 hours per night. I spend time doing other things, like mowing my yard and watching sports, and I don't have the game in front of me while I do them. I can't execute 50 activities at one time, which you obviously can. I don't have the patience to bid 5pp on literally every iron card listed all day long and then sell them for 15pp until I accumulate enough to start buying bronze. You had more transactions in March and April than I have total today.

I wouldn't have believed that, THIS WEEK, you could buy a 2014 HH Kluber card for 18K and sell it 4 hours later for 31K. I did not believe that the market was that wild, but now I do.

Missions certainly helped you because you likely had all of the cards to complete the White Sox missions several times. Selling the extras brought in enough points to move you into speculating on historical diamonds and perfects. It was still amazing to see you buying dozens of expensive cards within minutes and selling dozens at the same time. There must have been profit there, but frankly even tracking it was beyond my patience level.

I tip my hat to you and agree that your skills are unique. I couldn't do it, and - please don't take this the wrong way - I wouldn't want to do it.

To the people that say he should take his skills to the stock market, he isn't playing against machines here. The stock market is not filled with fools. Computers control trading there. Yes, he could make money as a day trader, but he could just as easily hold three online jobs at the same time and make more. Hell, he could probably do the day trading too.
Yeah, that's what I was saying about people being different. It's something I learned recently but quite well.
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Old 09-24-2019, 06:15 PM   #71
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I wouldn't be surpised if he's doing some kind of day trading as well. He hasn't brought that up, & may be too busy for all we know haha
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Old 09-24-2019, 06:38 PM   #72
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The amendment to this lesson is there's no sense in trying to be what you can't be.

& that there's all the reason in the world to be what you are.

Of course that's my take. Or what I took from it.
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Old 09-25-2019, 05:40 AM   #73
ElementalKnight
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Originally Posted by Thornbreaker View Post
Honestly:

1. Awesome FF/WoW themed league
2. Well done on your patience and effort
3. This is why I hate I don't have access while at work Where's that app!
4. I wish I had been more aggressive early on with stocking up historicals if for nothing else than my own missions I want to complete.
5. Now to take the next bit of PP and leverage it for awhile.
6. And thanks for sharing your hard work.

I've managed to field a PL team on $20 I spent to get a 2 players I wanted just a bit early...Lou B. and Sam Rice. So I still consider it F2P for the most part tho technically I spent something. Hitting is competitive on the contact/gap/def team and occasionally drops me in the playoffs. But I'm at a point now where my pitching just isn't good enough to win anything once in the playoffs, and upgrading that takes considerable PP.
Thanks! Turns out I only did any of this to get eyes on my fictional league

Awesome job on the team! I think my progression of starting pitching was something like Jack McDowell (whom I loved as a kid) > Willis Hudlin > Claude Passeau > Pedro Astacio > Sad Sam Jones > Cisco Carlos > Mordecai Brown, and then it got bonkers. But Cisco, Sad Sam, and Astacio made me competitive even in Perfect early on.
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Old 09-25-2019, 05:51 AM   #74
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Congratulations on your success.
Thanks, Slinky. For the devs that might be reading this, I have plenty of suggestions on how the market could be changed to meet whatever your goals are. But if you're happy with how I've driven prices up, feel free to remain silent (Edit: I know you're reading, because last 7 prices are now back to the way they were )

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Originally Posted by SpacePope View Post
Great posts. Thanks for sharing!

I believed you from the first post just b/c you mentioned playing the market in Eve. Compared to grinding isk on the Eve market, flipping cards in Perfect Team is a cake walk. The only thing that surprised me is that you'd post about it!

You mentioned that the there was a post from the devs about more effective market searching. Anyone have a link to that?
o7

Haha, part of why I'm willing to talk about it now is that I'm pretty happy with where the team's at. I also don't plan to be as active in PT 21. My career goal is to be a professor, so I like learning and teaching. But leave it to the Eve veteran to point out how it's crazy that I'm giving out valuable information :P

I was the best contract sniper in Eve when I played, and it was a similar deal—I figured out some tricks to searching that gave me an edge. I branched out from there to trying to dominate low supply, high value markets, like faction towers. Invested a bit as well. I was probably near a trillion ISK in assets as a solo player when I stopped playing. But my real love in the game was exploration. I absolutely loved exploring. Never once got podded!

dancariaz posted what I was thinking of. There's a lot there.
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Old 09-25-2019, 09:26 AM   #75
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The last 7 prices have been finnicky forever.

I watched every 85 CJ Wilson sell for 10K to 15K for two weeks and the last 7 never moved off 1700
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Old 09-25-2019, 09:32 AM   #76
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The last 7 prices have been finnicky forever.

I watched every 85 CJ Wilson sell for 10K to 15K for two weeks and the last 7 never moved off 1700
Funny you bring that example up. I was trying to corner that card specifically, and I was getting frustrated that the last 7 wasn't moving.

There's different strategies for dealing with how averages are calculated. When the last 7 doesn't move much, it makes sniping more effective. When it does move more, you can more deliberately shape markets and affect the averages.

But yeah, I'm glad I wasn't the only one who noticed that CJ's averages weren't moving.
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Old 09-25-2019, 12:13 PM   #77
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Stop controlling the Kiddo Davis cards. Don't you have enough money already?
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Old 09-25-2019, 12:15 PM   #78
ElementalKnight
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Stop controlling the Kiddo Davis cards. Don't you have enough money already?
Haha, that one's not me. I'm not the only one doing this, you know

I've been doing less lately now that my team is where I'd like it to be. If you need Cleveland diamonds though, heaven help you.
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Old 09-25-2019, 12:50 PM   #79
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This is probably a good time to talk about this: I don't think people understand how rare it is that a specific historical card (particularly gold or higher) even shows up on the AH. (I know Kiddo is Unsung iron, but this got me thinking).

Look at historical diamonds. Packs have 6 cards. One of those cards is determined by pack type. Standard packs have 5 cards that can be potentially be diamond. Diamond pulls are 1/150 cards (which I assume exempts the required bronze). So that's EV 1 diamond every 30 packs.

I think I remember them saying that the historical pull rate was 3/8 (37.5%). There are over 400 unique historical diamond cards in the game (probably closer to 450 now).

(1/30)*(3/8)*(1/400) = .00003125

That means, conservatively, that the expected value for a specific historical diamond is about one per 32,000 packs opened. I don't know the sum total of how many packs get opened each day, but I'd bet it's way less than 32k these days. That person then has to sell it, and it has to be on the auction house at a time that you see. Sure, some might show up that people forgot about or whatnot, and, sure, there's variance, but this is still a pretty low drop rate. The rarer something is, the easier it is to corner.

Edit: If you look at diamond packs, they function just like normal packs but the sixth card is a guaranteed diamond. Assuming the calculations are independent, which I think is a safe assumption:

(1/30)*(3/8)*(1/400) + (3/8)*(1/400) = .00096875

So that means that the EV of a specific historical diamond dropping from _just_ diamond pack purchases is 1 out of 1032 or so. Still pretty rare.
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Old 09-25-2019, 01:10 PM   #80
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That means, conservatively, that the expected value for a specific historical diamond is about one per 32,000 packs opened. I don't know the sum total of how many packs get opened each day, but I'd bet it's way less than 32k these days. That person then has to sell it, and it has to be on the auction house at a time that you see.
The missing element in your calculation for what shows up in the AH is the same card being sold multiple times. For instance, I have bought and then sold quite a few historical diamonds in my quest to collect only cards with no prior stats. Or people try out a card and don't like the performance.
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