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OOTP 18 - Historical Simulations Discuss historical simulations and their results in this forum.

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Old 02-15-2017, 08:07 PM   #1
actionjackson
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Absolute Blockbuster of a Trade in my 42 year old Historical Random Debut

Started this thing in 1901. On the first day of the 1942 Winter Meetings this doozy of a trade happened. Most of the trades I see are pretty ho-hum. The AI deals garbage for garbage and tries to balance everything out, and it's a bit of a yawnfest. Not this one. Just some background.

Yaz is playing like Yaz. He's coming off a 6.7 WAR season which netted him his second MVP in 3 seasons (led NL in RBI, BB, AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, and WAR). In the season in between (1941), he finished second in MVP voting, so he's at the height of his powers (7-time AS, 6-time SS, 1-time GG, and the two MVPs and he's just through his age 28 season).

Miguel Tejada is coming off an age 31 season that saw him hit .296/.329/.467/.796 with 25 HR and 100 RBI and 6.6 WAR. If the game had given me ten slots for MVP voting like the writers get IRL, he would've placed 8th in AL MVP voting.

So that's two very, very good players plus a very young Justin Turner who was just taken 25th overall in the 1942 draft by the Yankees. Chief Hogsett hasn't exactly been chopped liver in my game, as he has had two 4.0+ WAR pitching seasons and is coming off a 2.6 WAR season. He has a career 111 ERA+, and looks to be headed to the bullpen as his stamina has dropped to 1 (out of 5). Art Dito's just a guy. He's actually a PCL player who I brought into the game from the old Spritze Database. He's been quite good in very, very limited action as he's managed to slash .297/.395/.426/.821 so far in just 119 PA, but he hasn't had any playing time in the last three seasons. Maybe this year?

Like I said, the AI is mostly boring with its trading, but every now and then POW!!! The fact that it's between two historic franchises is kinda cool too.
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Last edited by actionjackson; 02-15-2017 at 09:24 PM.
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Old 02-17-2017, 10:47 AM   #2
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Pretty sweet ajackson!
Are you playing this with full minor leagues? If not, how many lower tiers do you have?
I ask because I was thinking of doing an early 20th c random debut league too
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Old 02-17-2017, 11:27 AM   #3
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Pretty sweet ajackson!
Are you playing this with full minor leagues? If not, how many lower tiers do you have?
I ask because I was thinking of doing an early 20th c random debut league too
Not to speak for Action, but we discuss our leagues quite a bit. He isn't using minor leagues at all, but instead uses reserve rosters. Also, he is using 1984 as his base year, so even though he started his league in 1901, his stat output is mid 80's.
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Old 02-17-2017, 01:08 PM   #4
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Not to speak for Action, but we discuss our leagues quite a bit. He isn't using minor leagues at all, but instead uses reserve rosters. Also, he is using 1984 as his base year, so even though he started his league in 1901, his stat output is mid 80's.
Thanks for speaking for me sir. You got to it before I could.
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Old 02-17-2017, 05:03 PM   #5
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Well. I read about both of your leagues extensively today (slow at work) and they both seem pretty awesome.
One quick question for you though. If I start the league as fictional instead of historical in 1901 (with the current major league structure in 2016) will I have to play around with any of the financial settings or will those automatically set to 1901 once I chose that as the start year?
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Old 02-17-2017, 05:14 PM   #6
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Well. I read about both of your leagues extensively today (slow at work) and they both seem pretty awesome.
One quick question for you though. If I start the league as fictional instead of historical in 1901 (with the current major league structure in 2016) will I have to play around with any of the financial settings or will those automatically set to 1901 once I chose that as the start year?
You can always have the game import financials according to history. You may have to manually increase stadium sizes over time.

Are you still considering random debut? If so, I highly recommend creating your league as a historical league over trying to go the fictional route. That being said, I hardly ever play random debut with real MLB teams. I create my league using the historical wizard and after it's created, I change team names, logos, locations etc. to fit the league structure I desire. My current league is a 20 team, 2 subleague setup based in 1984. Using the Historical Wizard, I created the 1984 season, then I deleted 6 teams and changed the league structure to be 2 subleagues of 10 with no divisions.
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Old 02-17-2017, 05:24 PM   #7
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What are the advantages of historical over fictional? I understand that the initial draft will be full of fictional players but I'm ok with that.
And yes, I will be going with random debut.
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Old 02-17-2017, 07:46 PM   #8
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What are the advantages of historical over fictional? I understand that the initial draft will be full of fictional players but I'm ok with that.
And yes, I will be going with random debut.
If you're going fictional, David Watts is definitely your man. I can help out if you choose to go historical and get stuck.

If you go historical and start in 1901, you'll get 704 random historical players (16 teams * 44 players) per team to start. Sometimes you get big time players who are in the decline phase of their career. E.g. I got Babe Ruth as a 34 year old in my inaugural draft. It sucks, but sometimes that's the way she goes.

Also, both David Watts and I use recalc and the player development system together, at least I think so. David may have switched to player development only (memory sucks right now). I do this because I like players to be somewhat close to what they were in real life, but using the player development system insures that whenever the recalc numbers run out for the player, he's at the mercy of the player development system. I use 3-year with double weight on the current year, which means the numbers will focus 25% on the previous year, 50% on the current year, and 25% on the year after that.

To explain this let's say "Sweet" Lou Whitaker is entering his age 20 season (his RL 1978 season). Recalc would weight his 1977 season at 25%, his 1978 season at 50%, and his 1979 season at 25% and combine it all together. You can choose one year, three year, or five year recalc, and to double weight or not to double weight, or you could turn off recalc all together and just go with the player development system.

I use the default settings for the player development system (batter aging speed = 1.000, batter development speed = 1.000, pitcher aging speed = 1.000, pitcher development speed = 1.000, talent change randomness = 100), but you could also fiddle around with it until you find what suits you. The reason I use both recalc and development together is because you can't tell the game to retire the players when they retired because they're most likely playing in different eras than they actually played in. I've heard that without development being switched on recalc will just repeat the last year over and over again, and players won't change off of that last year.

As David Watts mentioned, I use 1984 as my league stats output, which means there were more HR and R/G than were hit/scored in the deadball era as I went through it. It should flatten out the 1930s and the steroid era though, so I'm happy with that. Every year is based off of those outputs. That year, teams scored an average of 4.26 runs/game with a .260/.323/.385/.708 slash line, so my season totals come in somewhat close to that.

I'm a Neutralized Stats nut, so I love to have all the guys that come into my game play under the same conditions, and see who comes out on top. I even neutralize park effects and take out weather effects. I'm weird, what can I say? I therefore uncheck the box that says "adjust league totals modifiers for accuracy", and every year on the day before opening day, I enter "1984" in the "Totals from year" box. Remember that there are two checkboxes for league totals modifiers and I uncheck both of them. One is on the "Stats & AI" page, the other is on the "Historical" page in Game Settings > League Settings.

I also uncheck the "auto-adjust league strategy when advancing to next season" box, so that my strategy settings remain 1984ish, with the exception of using "Strict Rotation, occasionally highest rested", and I use 6 relievers in both a DH and non-DH league (I set AL to DH and NL to no DH, because I don't want to see guys who were great hitters but didn't see much real-life time in the field ride the pine). There are also two league strategy boxes on the same pages as the league totals modifiers boxes and I leave them unchecked.

I do check the "Import adjusted financial settings after each year" box, and yet I seem to have to import said settings every year anyway. Weird. I'm still on OOTP16 though, so maybe it's changed. David Watts can speak to that because he's used OOTP17 much more than me.

That's all I can think of for now (and it's a lot to be dumping on you at once), but if you have any questions please don't hesitate to ask. I'm sure one of us will be able to get to you. Cheers.

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Old 02-17-2017, 08:04 PM   #9
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Thanks guys! I've been playing this game for thousands of hours the past few years but the two of you taught me a ton of new stuff today
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Old 02-17-2017, 08:28 PM   #10
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Thanks guys! I've been playing this game for thousands of hours the past few years but the two of you taught me a ton of new stuff today
There's galaxies to discover in this game. I just stick to my random debut historicals because it's what's comfortable for me. Some people do amazing fictional dynasties too. It really is possible to find whatever floats your boat with this game and get totally lost in it at the same time.
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Old 02-17-2017, 08:30 PM   #11
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Thanks guys! I've been playing this game for thousands of hours the past few years but the two of you taught me a ton of new stuff today
Also, the great thing about it is that you could do a random debut historical and do it quite differently from the way I do it and come back and teach us all a thing or two.
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Old 02-18-2017, 09:14 AM   #12
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Coltrane's question kind of peaked my curiosity, so last night I went home and created a couple different completely fictional random debut leagues. By this I mean, no use of the historical wizard, starting with inaugural draft consisting of all fictional players. Random debut historical players from that point on.

Simmed the first one over around a 50 year period. Realized I forgot to disable the international complex. This was resulting in way too many fictional players. So, started created another with it turned off.

Though, I'm not sure in the long run if strictly fictional would be a way I would want to play, the results one gets are definitely interesting. The "what if" factor is magnified 1000 fold. For that reason, I would like to take back my earlier statement and say if fictional is the way you want to go, go for it.

Being a fast sim I was simply speeding through time, so one of the first things I noticed was Babe Ruth. In the second fast sim Babe has played from 1970 to the current year of 1985. He's been a pitcher his entire career(if slow simming or playing them out, I'm sure you can ensure he turns to hitting). In this sim, he is a ho hum 110-108 4.03. He pitched roughly 7 years as a starter and then heads to the bullpen.

Walter Johnson is currently 34 years old in this sim. He also entered the league in 1970. He's 171-165 3.74. He's been a starter for the most part, but at age 28 was he went 2-7 as his team's closer saving 30 games.

On the other side of this, Dean Chance a pitcher with a career MLB record of 128-115 2.92, went 419-174, 2.64 in this sim. Pete Donahue 138-118, 3.87 cruised to a 308-145, 2.95 in the sim.

In this second sim Gary Sheffield is the current home run king with 568. Followed by Ed Konetchy 543, the sleepy Tony Clark 507 and the mighty Dave Clark 495. Next on this list is Fred Lynn with 473 and then Hank Aaron with 452. Aaron appears to have been more susceptible to injuries in this sim than he was in real life, playing in 704 less sim games than real games.

Dave Clark is the current leader in career WAR 121.8 followed by Fred Lynn 119.5, Roberto Alomar 116.49, Homerun Baker 111.28

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Old 02-18-2017, 10:34 AM   #13
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Okay, I've now simmed from 1946 to 02/18/2017.

All time hits leader is Pablo Sandoval with 3424, followed by Bryce Harper with 3410.

Ray Knight plays from 1997 to 2014. He hits .322 over his career with 2807 hits. An amazing 803 of those hits were doubles. 5 times during his career Knight hit 60+ doubles in a season with 66 being his high.

Gary Sheffield is now 3rd on the home run list(568). Bryce Harper is the new home run king with 721. Jack Fournier is second with 639.

Ron Santo hit 566 bombs and Joe Adcock hit 557.

Mickey Mantle hit 491 career home runs. Mickey hit an amazing .333 over his career. Looks like he had roughly 670 less plate appearance in OOTP than real life. So his home run numbers are right in line.

Bryce Harper is the new career leader in WAR with 139.65, followed by Mickey Mantle 123.80.

The top three mentioned in the post above still sit a top the pitcher wins list. But, sitting at 4th with 287 wins is Dennis Blair.

Don Drysdale 156-144, 4.13. 2029 strikeouts. He's only whiffed 200+ one time over his career.

Randy Johnson pitched from 1990 to 2002. Entered league at 24, retired at 36. 133-101 3.87. 1949 strikeouts. At 27 he whiffed 252 batters, his career high.

Zack Greinke morphs into a closer at the age of 26. 115-112 with 189 career saves.

Warren Spahn is currently 26 years old. As a 20 year old rookie he starts 14 games and hasn't started a game since. He is 30-30 with 131 saves. His last full season, he pitched 71 games in relief, no save 4.70

Catfish Hunter --157-170 4.57

Jerry Reuss 65-98 4.53
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Old 02-18-2017, 12:32 PM   #14
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Simmed the first one over around a 50 year period. Realized I forgot to disable the international complex. This was resulting in way too many fictional players. So, started created another with it turned off.
How many is "way too many"? I may have to turn this off too.
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Old 02-18-2017, 01:06 PM   #15
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...also, another question for you guys (this one may seem a bit odd).
I'm thinking about alternating between fictional and historical players in my new league. By this I mean going with a fictional players draft every other year, basically just to mix things up.
Could you guys let me know how you think this may work out? Is it even possible? I'm assuming it's as easy as just unclicking the import historical player box every other year. But do you guys forsee any issues that may arise as the league moves forward?
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Old 02-18-2017, 01:33 PM   #16
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Okay, I've now simmed from 1946 to 02/18/2017.

All time hits leader is Pablo Sandoval with 3424, followed by Bryce Harper with 3410.

Ray Knight plays from 1997 to 2014. He hits .322 over his career with 2807 hits. An amazing 803 of those hits were doubles. 5 times during his career Knight hit 60+ doubles in a season with 66 being his high.

Gary Sheffield is now 3rd on the home run list(568). Bryce Harper is the new home run king with 721. Jack Fournier is second with 639.

Ron Santo hit 566 bombs and Joe Adcock hit 557.

Mickey Mantle hit 491 career home runs. Mickey hit an amazing .333 over his career. Looks like he had roughly 670 less plate appearance in OOTP than real life. So his home run numbers are right in line.

Bryce Harper is the new career leader in WAR with 139.65, followed by Mickey Mantle 123.80.

The top three mentioned in the post above still sit a top the pitcher wins list. But, sitting at 4th with 287 wins is Dennis Blair.

Don Drysdale 156-144, 4.13. 2029 strikeouts. He's only whiffed 200+ one time over his career.

Randy Johnson pitched from 1990 to 2002. Entered league at 24, retired at 36. 133-101 3.87. 1949 strikeouts. At 27 he whiffed 252 batters, his career high.

Zack Greinke morphs into a closer at the age of 26. 115-112 with 189 career saves.

Warren Spahn is currently 26 years old. As a 20 year old rookie he starts 14 games and hasn't started a game since. He is 30-30 with 131 saves. His last full season, he pitched 71 games in relief, no save 4.70

Catfish Hunter --157-170 4.57

Jerry Reuss 65-98 4.53
You're using development only? Or recalc plus development?
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Old 02-18-2017, 01:40 PM   #17
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You're using development only? Or recalc plus development?
Started this league as fictional league. Fictional Players in the inaugural draft. Therefore, it's a 100% fictional. Recalc isn't even an option. Just wanted to see how this worked.
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Old 02-18-2017, 01:42 PM   #18
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How many is "way too many"? I may have to turn this off too.
By 50 years in, I expected to see teams almost completely made up of real players. I wasn't seeing this at all. Instead, I was seeing 3 or more position players being fictional players and usually at least 2 or more in the 5 man rotation being fictional.
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Old 02-18-2017, 01:49 PM   #19
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...also, another question for you guys (this one may seem a bit odd).
I'm thinking about alternating between fictional and historical players in my new league. By this I mean going with a fictional players draft every other year, basically just to mix things up.
Could you guys let me know how you think this may work out? Is it even possible? I'm assuming it's as easy as just unclicking the import historical player box every other year. But do you guys forsee any issues that may arise as the league moves forward?
I'm biased on this and probably can't answer your question without displaying that bias. No matter how hard I try, I simply don't enjoy mixing fictional players with real players. Most of my thoughts on this would nothing more than speculation and driven by confirmation bias, so I highly recommend testing it out yourself. My nephew constantly plays historical with the require full minors option selected and he loves the combo of real and fictional. It's all a matter of taste.
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Old 02-18-2017, 02:21 PM   #20
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Okay folks, I'm up to year 2123 and we have a new hits leader......Pat Tabler Pat has 3433 hits which gives him 9 more than Pablo Sandoval.

Bryce Harper's 721 home runs was once the top of the pops, but now 4 different players have passed him by. They are Eddie Murray 744. Murray age 35 is currently still active. Cecil Fielder 779. Duke Snider 799. Are you ready for this.....drum roll please.......Bob Horner with 950 Wow! From 2067 to 2078 Horner never hit less than 41 bombs. 43,51,56,60,53,64,64,59,63,41,47,43. Insane.

Remember the Ray Knight doubles. Well since then Robin Yount topped Knight with 809. But, then there's Steve O'Neill who smacked 888 two baggers.

There are still only 5 pitchers with 300+ wins. Chance(419) Felix Hernandez (334) Mark Prior (313) Pete Donohue (308) and Gene Schott (304).

Mark Prior has 5225 strikeouts, followed by Larry French 4894 and Lefty Grove 4573.

Charlie Dusty Rhodes is the all time saves leader with 538 followed by Sean Doolittle with 500 and Al Downing 444. Other pitchers in the top ten are JR Richard with 422. Wilbur Wood 410 and Kevin Brown with 394.

Harper is no longer the WAR leader...Albert Pujhols is now the leader at 154.97 followed by Duke Snider 147.24
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