What player has been your best surprise and your biggest disapointment?

[Xogo]

Originally Posted by captainbuttercream

I've come to the conclusion that I'm going to avoid all hitters with sub-30 Avoid K ratings. They chronically under perform in Silver and above.

I agree. I contend that because so many pitchers have 100+ stuff, the great Power hitters with average Con, but low Eye and Avoid Ks, are sitting ducks for them and just strike out at a ridiculous rate.

[<Pion>]

Originally Posted by captainbuttercream

I've come to the conclusion that I'm going to avoid all hitters with sub-30 Avoid K ratings. They chronically under perform in Silver and above.

I may be wrong and maybe one of the statisticians formulas can prove otherwise, but I believe this Avoid K rating thing is a myth when it comes to producing noticeably worse than better avoid K counterparts.

To attempt at establishing a way to measure, I used the actual wOBA (based on stats) against the calculated wOBA (based on ratings). I took the differential between these ratings at each league level for players with an over 30 Avoid K rating and a 30 and below Avoid K rating. A positive number means that the over 30 group performed better.

Bronze: .000
Silver: .002
Gold: .001
Diamond: .002
Perfect: -.003

My takeaway is that the number differential at any level is probably to small to be a concern, but at the Perfect level, the Under 30 K people actually performed better when compared to their expected numbers. That being said, when you look at their actual or expected numbers, the over 30 K people were just much better players as far as their ratings are concerned. They may have underperformed compared to their Under 30 counterparts, but overall they were better players. They weren't better because of their K rating, they were better because of all their other ratings.

So I would say get the guys that have the better ratings regardless of the Avoid K rating unless you don't like strikeouts (this study does not account for runner advancements on outs). I think the idea that the guys who strikeout a lot at higher levels underperform is a misconception due to either them not being good enough in the first place to be at the higher level or possibly small sample sizes (or a difference in definition of underperform with the real difference being overall ability).

[<Pion>]

Originally Posted by Dr.K

Alex Wood has been my biggest surprise we are in the playoffs at Gold Level and he is the best pitcher in a staff that has Corbin,Wheeler and Cluber. Biggest disappointments have been Rendon, Doolittle, and Machado who have been consistent but not near as good as I expected. Jesus Aguilar too has been pretty suprising still hitting them out at Gold.

Raines, Cain, McCovey, JD ave been with me most of the way and are consistent and their stellar play has got my Houston High Heaters in the sub league championship at Gold. Finally Ichiro 2001 card is probably the most consistent since Bronze.

Funny the amount of difference a player can have (possibly because of park factor differences,etc). For me, Wood struggles to ever have an ERA below 5, and that has been at every level. As for Aguilar, he just had his first season for me and hit .159 (with modest power). I was ready to sell him.

[W0rmzbr0]

My best surprise is Ozzie Albies (75), who has had 3.5+ WAR each of the two seasons I've had him (Bronze then Silver) and won the Great Glove at 2B both seasons. Disappointment would probably Carlton Fisk (75), who has come in under 2.0 both years. Still keeping him for the defense and because I've felt like upgrading at other positions has been more important.

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by <Pion>

I may be wrong and maybe one of the statisticians formulas can prove otherwise, but I believe this Avoid K rating thing is a myth when it comes to producing noticeably worse than better avoid K counterparts.

As far as affecting a given player's stat line, I agree with this. Recently I exported all the ratings & stats for the careers of all players in my leagues (something like half a million AB sample size) and played around with some regression lines and whatnot. The data was limited to just diamond & perfect level. All batting attributes with the exception of avoid K (so CON, POW, GAP, EYE) had a significant correlation with park-adjusted offensive output (wRC+) as you would expect. The correlations were low because there is a ton of random variation in baseball, also to be expected. But the surprise for me was that the "Avoid K" rating had literally zero correlation with wRC+. Avoid K does have some correlation with batting average (roughly 1/3rd as strong as CON rating) but the gains don't carry over to overall production. Probably because the high avoid K guys tend to have low POW and hence SLG which drags them down.

I have seen many comments in the forums about how the "avoid K" rating just turns strikeouts into other types of outs. I didn't believe it was true previously, but after doing this regression analysis, I believe it now.

That all being said though...I still would not recommend ignoring the "avoid K" rating. Moving baserunners over does have value. Enabling the hit-n-run play has value. There are fielding errors. None of these things are captured in stat lines so they are more difficult to quantify, but it doesn't mean they don't matter.

[Motorhead667]

Larry Dierker 0.26 ERA

[Zorro]

Originally Posted by <Pion>

I may be wrong and maybe one of the statisticians formulas can prove otherwise, but I believe this Avoid K rating thing is a myth when it comes to producing noticeably worse than better avoid K counterparts.

To attempt at establishing a way to measure, I used the actual wOBA (based on stats) against the calculated wOBA (based on ratings). I took the differential between these ratings at each league level for players with an over 30 Avoid K rating and a 30 and below Avoid K rating. A positive number means that the over 30 group performed better.

Bronze: .000
Silver: .002
Gold: .001
Diamond: .002
Perfect: -.003

My takeaway is that the number differential at any level is probably to small to be a concern, but at the Perfect level, the Under 30 K people actually performed better when compared to their expected numbers. That being said, when you look at their actual or expected numbers, the over 30 K people were just much better players as far as their ratings are concerned. They may have underperformed compared to their Under 30 counterparts, but overall they were better players. They weren't better because of their K rating, they were better because of all their other ratings.

So I would say get the guys that have the better ratings regardless of the Avoid K rating unless you don't like strikeouts (this study does not account for runner advancements on outs). I think the idea that the guys who strikeout a lot at higher levels underperform is a misconception due to either them not being good enough in the first place to be at the higher level or possibly small sample sizes (or a difference in definition of underperform with the real difference being overall ability).

Wow, Great post. Thank you for all the work and info.😁

[Izz]

My 92OVR Yogi Berra continues to disappoint offensively. Last 3 seasons he's finished with an OPS+ of 100 or less (2 seasons at silver, 1 at gold). He's defensively strong, however, and does go on streaks, so he stays in the lineup.

[zrog2000]

Originally Posted by old timer

Wow, I've never seen such a long hitting streak (and in diamond?!) - not even in years of solo play. I wonder if anyone has seen one comparably long?

I had a Rod Carew that had a 47 game streak in silver I think.

[pappyzan]

Originally Posted by chazzycat

As far as affecting a given player's stat line, I agree with this. Recently I exported all the ratings & stats for the careers of all players in my leagues (something like half a million AB sample size) and played around with some regression lines and whatnot. The data was limited to just diamond & perfect level. All batting attributes with the exception of avoid K (so CON, POW, GAP, EYE) had a significant correlation with park-adjusted offensive output (wRC+) as you would expect. The correlations were low because there is a ton of random variation in baseball, also to be expected. But the surprise for me was that the "Avoid K" rating had literally zero correlation with wRC+. Avoid K does have some correlation with batting average (roughly 1/3rd as strong as CON rating) but the gains don't carry over to overall production. Probably because the high avoid K guys tend to have low POW and hence SLG which drags them down.

I have seen many comments in the forums about how the "avoid K" rating just turns strikeouts into other types of outs. I didn't believe it was true previously, but after doing this regression analysis, I believe it now.

That all being said though...I still would not recommend ignoring the "avoid K" rating. Moving baserunners over does have value. Enabling the hit-n-run play has value. There are fielding errors. None of these things are captured in stat lines so they are more difficult to quantify, but it doesn't mean they don't matter.

Yep, I agree. The Avoid K rating is important, but it's importance is dependent upon how you plan to build your team and your ballpark. Typically, guys with low Avoid K's ratings will have higher Home Run Power and lower Contact (not always of course, but mostly this appears to be true). And typically, guys with higher Avoid K's ratings will have lower Home Run Power and higher Contact (again not always the case, there's always outliers).

If you're building your team & ballpark to use lots of hit & run, and/or high 2Bs & 3Bs, and/or high average, you're going to look for cards with high Contact. These cards typically will also have a high Avoid Ks rating.

If you're building your team & ballpark for a ton of homers, these players will of course have high HR Power ratings, but they will also typically have low Avoid Ks ratings.

From what I can tell, high or low Avoid K ratings don't mean a player will produce more or less outs either way. It plays its part in how player value is produced & perceived; but more than anything, is an indicator of how this player typically gets out.

[Dr.K]

Originally Posted by <Pion>

Funny the amount of difference a player can have (possibly because of park factor differences,etc). For me, Wood struggles to ever have an ERA below 5, and that has been at every level. As for Aguilar, he just had his first season for me and hit .159 (with modest power). I was ready to sell him.

Yes it is funny, my ballpark is Vanilla maybe it's his rotation spot? He is #5 in my rotation, I don't do 7 day lineups and always pitch highest rested, maybe it's my fielders, I have Machado at 3rd, Rendon at second and Vizquel at short with Oquendo backup infield, and Aguilar platooning with Mc Covey at fist. In the outfield, Cain in CF, Raines in LF and Ichiro in RF.

[CaptainZappBrannigan]

2 notes about my over/under performers
1. My teams are mostly stuck in Silver due to playoff luck with only 4 teams advancing now, so I'm not sure how they hold up in Gold and above.
2. I'm at work so I don't have my teams in front of me, so if I misquote any numbers here forgive me.

Over-performed:
Bronze 63 Jerad Eickhoff: In 3 Bronze seasons and 1 silver he's been almost always under a 3 ERA/FIP <3 <3 <3
Silver Paul Waner: Used him on 2 separate teams doing well in silver, at that level still hangs around .900 OPS in his worst seasons. I've seen him doing well on quite a few other teams in silver/bronze
Silver 76 Luke Appling: Had a 6 WAR season the year his team got promoted from Bronze, 4.5 WAR seems to be his norm. Rated 67 defensively, but with 83 range.

Honorable Mention: 97 Live Justin Turner. My first ever diamond packed or bought (I packed him). I really wanted to sell him because a. I hate the Dodgers b. I hate his stupid beard c. his stats dont jump off the page. However he's been sooo much better than similar cost Diamonds I've owned and seen across silver leagues. If you need a safe stud in lower levels for ~5k he's your guy.

Under-performed:
87 Record Breaker Kenley Jansen: My gold from starter packs, he's been bad-ish every season, even when the team was in Bronze, but I still can't quit him.
97 Live Jose Ramirez: Got him in my packs only team and so far the worst diamond I own in any league
83/84 Billy Williams: This one may be a little premature (~162 games across 2 seasons) but for a 3k price tag I got robbed. .750 OPS and meh defense.

[<Pion>]

Originally Posted by Dr.K

Yes it is funny, my ballpark is Vanilla maybe it's his rotation spot? He is #5 in my rotation, I don't do 7 day lineups and always pitch highest rested, maybe it's my fielders, I have Machado at 3rd, Rendon at second and Vizquel at short with Oquendo backup infield, and Aguilar platooning with Mc Covey at fist. In the outfield, Cain in CF, Raines in LF and Ichiro in RF.

Woods is on my all-Dodger squad, so the ballpark is set up like the Dodger Stadium of my youth (reduced HRs). Garvey at 1B, Gilliam at 2B, Belanger and Reese at SS, Machado at 3B, Tommy Davis in LF, Snider in CF, and Furillo in RF. Not a great defense and my pitching suffered, but once I replaced Seager at SS with Belanger (he played one season) and finally got Reese, it has improved quite a bit but still not nearly anything like my other teams.

[daves]

Originally Posted by <Pion>

Woods is on my all-Dodger squad, so the ballpark is set up like the Dodger Stadium of my youth (reduced HRs). Garvey at 1B, Gilliam at 2B, Belanger and Reese at SS, Machado at 3B, Tommy Davis in LF, Snider in CF, and Furillo in RF. Not a great defense and my pitching suffered, but once I replaced Seager at SS with Belanger (he played one season) and finally got Reese, it has improved quite a bit but still not nearly anything like my other teams.

I like the team themes. But if your the Dodgers, there are some high end costly players available as well.

[<Pion>]

Originally Posted by daves

I like the team themes. But if your the Dodgers, there are some high end costly players available as well.

True, and I've got a few of them. Diamond players I have are Koufax (not the perfect, but the higher of the two diamonds I've seen), Sutton, Drysdale, Nomo, Kershaw, Turner, and Snider. Without spending more money (I bought $20 of PP), it will be a while before I can get Campanella, Robinson, and Vance. Most of the Kenley's have underperformed, so he's pretty low on the wanted list. Campanella or Vance will probably be the next.

[daves]

Sometimes I don't understand the ratings in this game. I was excited to acquire a Stan Musial. A great hitter that I platooned in LF only against Right handers. Should hit in 300s or 280 or above, but in two seasons he batted .230s and .180s.

Regrettably I put him back to auction, Those numbers against RHs only were incredibly disappointing. Almost seemed buggy.

[BAMFBreakers]

Biggest Surprise: 84 Tim Raines - Huge SB numbers (50-60) and overall great hitter. Between 5-6 WAR each season.

Biggest Disappointment: 88 Bob Gibson - Never had a great season. He's always been my favorite pitcher and I expected him to just be dominant. Finally got his 93 and he ended up being much better.

[Maddox]

Originally Posted by daves

I like the team themes. But if your the Dodgers, there are some high end costly players available as well.

I have tried to do a Cardinals themed team. I am becoming convinced that, at least for some teams you can't really compete.


For the Cardinals most of the highest rated cards are really expensive to the point that I doubt that I would ever have enough. And then there are just holes that can't seem to be filled. The Cardinals are desperately lacking high quality relief. After Lindy McDaniel, Lee Smith and Bruce Sutter, none of whom are elite, you are pretty much relegated to the current roster of relievers (who were among the worst in the league this past year).


Needless to say when 20 comes out that, as much as I am a die hard, lifelong Cardinal fan, I doubt I will use one of my profiles for a Cardinal Themed team.

[<Pion>]

Originally Posted by Maddox

I have tried to do a Cardinals themed team. I am becoming convinced that, at least for some teams you can't really compete.


For the Cardinals most of the highest rated cards are really expensive to the point that I doubt that I would ever have enough. And then there are just holes that can't seem to be filled. The Cardinals are desperately lacking high quality relief. After Lindy McDaniel, Lee Smith and Bruce Sutter, none of whom are elite, you are pretty much relegated to the current roster of relievers (who were among the worst in the league this past year).


Needless to say when 20 comes out that, as much as I am a die hard, lifelong Cardinal fan, I doubt I will use one of my profiles for a Cardinal Themed team.

Yes, I didn't really expect to compete at all. I enjoy stats, so I expected (and did) to get a lot of fun out of just having all the players on the team and seeing the stats they produce.

The team got to Gold level and floundered badly. Once I added one more pitcher (Nomo), allowed myself a player with a non-Dodger card that played for the Dodgers (Belanger), and then one guilty non-Dodger as a backup and defensive replacement only (Garry Maddox), the team gelled together and finally had a winning season. They somehow kept winning and won the championship this past season. Now they are at the Diamond level with a 42-40 record that surprisingly has them in 1st place in their division. Maybe I'll feel guilty enough to sell off Maddox so I'm back to only Dodgers. Every single other player I have both on Active and Reserve roster has a Dodger version of their card. It looks nice when seeing them all displayed together.

[Leo_The_Lip]

Pleasant surprise: Eddie Yost. You want a leadoff man with 100+ walks and 20+ HRs, he's your man.

Disappointment: Bruce Hurst, Mr. Meatball.