Perfect card odds - Page 5

BoofBonser26 · 12-11-2018, 12:54 PM

I think that's a problem where because there's not that many Live Perfects compared to the overall perfect pool, and because historic cards are tougher to pull, your Perfect Live card is probably Sale or DeGrom or some such.

rtkretz · 12-11-2018, 01:09 PM

Your explanation makes as much sense as anything I could come up with, still a little disconcerting though.

Cyntric · 12-13-2018, 02:23 PM

I wonder if the player you get at gold level and above purposely has a higher chance to be a duplicate of what you already have. It would keep the AH stocked...

I have no proof of this, but when I keep getting Bryce Harper after Bryce Harper....makes me suspicious. It’s happened to me with more that a few of the live gold card players.

Orcin · 12-13-2018, 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cyntric

I wonder if the player you get at gold level and above purposely has a higher chance to be a duplicate of what you already have. It would keep the AH stocked...

I have no proof of this, but when I keep getting Bryce Harper after Bryce Harper....makes me suspicious. It’s happened to me with more that a few of the live gold card players.

This happens because there are too many 2018 Live cards in general relative to the other sets.

SayHey1 · 12-14-2018, 03:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zrog2000

According to my personal calculations, the odds are 0.

Me too.

Izz · 12-14-2018, 03:46 AM

Hell, I haven't even seen a diamond yet...

Whoofe · 12-14-2018, 08:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Izz

Hell, I haven't even seen a diamond yet...

I did once for a brief time in the beta....

Bunktown Ballers · 12-14-2018, 09:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vyshka

I have at least 2 teams in my entry pool with multiple perfects on the active roster.

1 team in my league has 7 Perfect & 12 Diamands (90+ ratings) at last count 2 days ago. Not fun at all....It also seems like cards are in AH for reason. Why so many of the same? Over & Over. I have bought a few & not 1 has been really useful to me as a good card. A .320 hitter for the year of the card becomes a .220 hitter. I'm finding pitching dominants batter cards big time. I have a very nice team myself. I got shutout on 2 to 5 hits 4 out of 6 games 1 week with the other 2 games I scores 1 and 2 runs respectively......and my roster is pretty loaded....I'm still like 3-4 games over .500 but that's by wining 2-0, 2-1 3-2 type games. And 6 run innings are the thing when I do score. I'm gonna finish this week out and see how it goes before making a decision if I keep playing. RATINGS mean ZERO....Regular OOTP is much closer to accuracy....

BB
Louisiana Crawdads

I was hyped on this game early, but not so much anymore. Just no flow off being close to baseball mostly the reason. I hope it gets better...I love the possibilities the game has.BTW. I'll never buy packs again. I'lll buy Perfect Points & just shop in AH. Anything under a Gold card is useless in leagues

Markus Heinsohn · 12-14-2018, 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bunktown Ballers

RATINGS mean ZERO....Regular OOTP is much closer to accuracy.

This statement is flat out wrong. The engine is identical, it all depends on what competition players face and the sample size. But this horse has been beaten to death multiple times already....

slic1149 · 12-14-2018, 10:23 AM

Getting the cards to put together a winning team is, in fact, luck. Putting together a winning team with the cards you pull is where the skill comes in. One way or another I am having a lot of fun playing the game. By the way I have spent $10 on packs so far. Won my division the first season, and I am not doing at all well for the second season.

<Pion> · 12-14-2018, 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bunktown Ballers

Anything under a Gold card is useless in leagues

There are silver players that are better than gold and you can also find silver players that are better than diamonds. Far from useless. You can't just buy a player because of their OVR or because they are a gold and assume they will be good/great. That's just not the case. Research players prior to purchasing to see how they've performed for others.

Matt Arnold · 12-14-2018, 11:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by <Pion>

There are silver players that are better than gold and you can also find silver players that are better than diamonds. Far from useless. You can't just buy a player because of their OVR or because they are a gold and assume they will be good/great. That's just not the case. Research players prior to purchasing to see how they've performed for others.

Never mind that some players may fit better in a lineup than others. If you have all lefties in your lineup, give me a 75 right handed hitter instead of an 85 lefty just to break things up. Or maybe you need speed, or defense, or OBP, or power, to balance things out.

Yeah, it's annoying to see my Barry Larkin hitting .195. And one thing I might disagree with Markus on is that regular OOTP is probably closer to accuracy. But that's more because a regular MLB league doesn't have the SS around the league as Larkin, Jeter, Wagner, A-Rod, Seager, Machado, etc... So yeah, your Jeter card is probably not going to do as well as he did in real life, but he's still going to do a lot better than a Renteria will.

Dogberry99 · 12-14-2018, 11:45 AM

I personally believe that individual attribute ratings matter more for the success of an individual player than their overall rating. I also believe that some attributes matter far more than others.

Has this been the experience for others?

<Pion> · 12-14-2018, 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

Yeah, it's annoying to see my Barry Larkin hitting .195. And one thing I might disagree with Markus on is that regular OOTP is probably closer to accuracy. But that's more because a regular MLB league doesn't have the SS around the league as Larkin, Jeter, Wagner, A-Rod, Seager, Machado, etc... So yeah, your Jeter card is probably not going to do as well as he did in real life, but he's still going to do a lot better than a Renteria will.

Exactly. Anytime the overall quality of the competition is higher, the stats will go down accordingly. I imagine the highest leagues once they are filled with team that have primarily diamonds and perfects will see some interesting stats (diamonds such as Kris Bryant that can't break the Mendoza line possibly or a pitchers like Aaron Nola with ERAs over 6)

Whoofe · 12-14-2018, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dogberry99

I personally believe that individual attribute ratings matter more for the success of an individual player than their overall rating. I also believe that some attributes matter far more than others.

Has this been the experience for others?

totally agree. I've been playing regular OOTP that way for a few years now. ignore overall ratings, I look at CON, GAP, POW, EYE, K, speed and the 4 defensive ratings rather than overall

i also value some skills more highly than others. that's what you need to figure out what works for you in order to manage, otherwise the AI could do it

Maddox · 12-15-2018, 02:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bunktown Ballers

Anything under a Gold card is useless in leagues

I am leading my Silver league division with a lineup of

3 bronze
3 silver
3 gold

Granted, I got lucky and was placed in the weakest division in my league, but my team is under performing (at least in my opinion).

uschi_baerchen · 12-17-2018, 06:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Josquin

I get 2.7%. 0.999 to the 3600th power? Not taking into account the mandatory bronze that sometimes happens with crappy packs.

The probability NOT to draw 1 Perfect Card out of 3600 is indeed 2,7 %, the formula is (exp(3600* ln(999/1000)). The probability NOT to draw 1 Perfect Card out of 3000 is indeed 4,9 %. Maybe the last value is correct since within 600 packs you already used up 600 Cards for bronze / Gold.

uschi_baerchen · 12-17-2018, 06:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bunktown Ballers

Regular OOTP is much closer to accuracy....

I do not think so, I tend to Markus opinion. And if you talk about OOTP you also have to consider, that you take the candys from the suckers if you consider how easily you can trade the non human Teams out of their assets. AND: you play against some better human players. I thought I was quite good at it and had to find out that there are some guys out there who might even better than me, unfortunately.

BUT: I am not yet through with my wisdom, beware!

uschi_baerchen · 12-17-2018, 07:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

That, I'm not sure if I'm supposed to say or not

Although maybe someone better than me at Math can run the numbers and figure out whether it makes a difference

The algorithm, that you use in order to guarantee the bronze makes a lot of difference, e.g.

1. you draw six Cards, look at them and if at least 1 bronze or better is between them, you turn over otherwise you draw again 6 new Cards until 1 bronze or better is in ==> probability to get NO perfect Card is 2,7 %

2. you draw on bronze Card and five other at random and turn over
==> probability to get NO perfect Card is 4,9 %

The formulas for this are elsewhere in this thread

lboston1 · 12-17-2018, 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Josquin

Thanks for the statistics lesson. In my own experience, dating back all the way to the beta, I opened over 600 packs without drawing a single perfect. Perhaps you can enlighten me on the odds of that?

600 packs - 6 starting packs = 594,000 PP

594,000 PP = $594 without accounting for bonuses.

I calculate you would have better odds getting that Perfect by buying it on the Auction House!

12-14-2018, 03:46 AM	#86
Izz Hall Of Famer Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 2,467	Hell, I haven't even seen a diamond yet... __________________ Not only do I play OOTP but I also write science-fiction: My Website A brief history of the Australia-New Zealand Baseball League (AUNZBL 2019-2119)--A Dynasty Report The National Penterham Four-Bases Association--A Dynasty Report

12-14-2018, 10:23 AM	#90
slic1149 Major Leagues Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Fort Worth, TX Posts: 343	Getting the cards to put together a winning team is, in fact, luck. Putting together a winning team with the cards you pull is where the skill comes in. One way or another I am having a lot of fun playing the game. By the way I have spent $10 on packs so far. Won my division the first season, and I am not doing at all well for the second season. __________________ To laugh often and love much, to appreciate beauty, to find the best in others, to give one's self, this is to have succeeded. - Ralph Waldo Emerson

12-11-2018, 12:54 PM	#81
BoofBonser26 Major Leagues Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Chicago Posts: 357	I think that's a problem where because there's not that many Live Perfects compared to the overall perfect pool, and because historic cards are tougher to pull, your Perfect Live card is probably Sale or DeGrom or some such.

12-11-2018, 01:09 PM	#82
rtkretz Minors (Double A) Join Date: Dec 2016 Location: Georgia Posts: 162	Your explanation makes as much sense as anything I could come up with, still a little disconcerting though.

12-13-2018, 02:23 PM	#83
Cyntric Bat Boy Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 10	I wonder if the player you get at gold level and above purposely has a higher chance to be a duplicate of what you already have. It would keep the AH stocked... I have no proof of this, but when I keep getting Bryce Harper after Bryce Harper....makes me suspicious. It’s happened to me with more that a few of the live gold card players.

12-14-2018, 11:45 AM	#93
Dogberry99 All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2018 Location: Wichita Falls, TX Posts: 1,328	I personally believe that individual attribute ratings matter more for the success of an individual player than their overall rating. I also believe that some attributes matter far more than others. Has this been the experience for others?