Hit by Pitch way out of line

abwman · 01-23-2016, 08:09 PM

FYI, the occurrence of hit batsmen seems way out of whack in the simulation. I just finished a game in which Max Scherzer had 3 hit batsmen, and he has accumulated 11 HB in fewer than 80 innings. He averages roughly 5 per season in real life. David Price has 9 in 75 innings, and he had 5 in all of 2015, and has not had more than 5 in any of the last 3 seasons. Jon Lester has 8 in 86 innings, and he had 7 in the whole real 2015 season. Kershaw has 6 HB in 80 innings, and he averages 4 per season lifetime, and had 5 HB in 2015. Altogether, in this simulation, in the first 60 games, the batters for 12 teams are averaging .4 HB per game or more, and 4 are averaging more than .5 per game . In reality, that is roughly twice what it should be. In 60 games, 6 pitchers have 8 or more HB, which equates to more than 20 for the season, and no pitcher had more than 13 HB in 2015. 39 pitchers have 5 or more HB at 60 games, which is roughly the equivalent of 13 for a full season, and in reality, in 2015 only 4 pitchers had 13 HB for the season, and that was the highest amount of all pitchers.

NoOne · 01-23-2016, 08:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by abwman

FYI, the occurrence of hit batsmen seems way out of whack in the simulation. I just finished a game in which Max Scherzer had 3 hit batsmen, and he has accumulated 11 HB in fewer than 80 innings. He averages roughly 5 per season in real life. David Price has 9 in 75 innings, and he had 5 in all of 2015, and has not had more than 5 in any of the last 3 seasons. Jon Lester has 8 in 86 innings, and he had 7 in the whole real 2015 season. Kershaw has 6 HB in 80 innings, and he averages 4 per season lifetime, and had 5 HB in 2015. Altogether, in this simulation, in the first 60 games, the batters for 12 teams are averaging .4 HB per game or more, and 4 are averaging more than .5 per game . In reality, that is roughly twice what it should be. In 60 games, 6 pitchers have 8 or more HB, which equates to more than 20 for the season, and no pitcher had more than 13 HB in 2015. 39 pitchers have 5 or more HB at 60 games, which is roughly the equivalent of 13 for a full season, and in reality, in 2015 only 4 pitchers had 13 HB for the season, and that was the highest amount of all pitchers.

first, it's easier to read if you make use of paragraphs.

looking at one pitcher isn't going to tell you anything important. volatility explains the deviations from the average. unless you know typical volatility from year-to-year, you cannot know if something is wrong or not. (standard deviation and variance describes this stuff)

if the league totals are out of line at the end of the season, and i mean REALLY out of line if oyu are going to use 1 season of data, then change the corresponding League Total Modifier for hit batsmen. if it's within 5-10% of 'normal' i'd leave it where it is until more information is known.

on an individul level, turn on comissioner mode and look at sherzer or whomever. is their hitbatsmen per # BF in the editor the same as your expectations... .if not, upto you to edit that stuff. if it says 5 and he is getting more than that in the current year... no big deal it's normal. (assuming league totals are right).

Edit: 1500-some hbp / year is typical for a 30team 162game season. if you want more accurate figure, go to baseball-ref and calculate it. i did this a while ago, and it was for a smaller league, so i've tried to convert it bakc, plus i did not make use of steroid years if the data looked skewed, so you may get a different value (on top of 2015data not being used in my average).

don't compare results between years.... you make sure results fall within an acceptable range of an average. if you replay that seaon over again it will have completely different results in many different ways.

bwburke94 · 01-23-2016, 10:34 PM

OOTP doesn't know names, only numbers - so if you give it the wrong numbers, of course it won't produce accurate results!

diesel230 · 01-24-2016, 12:49 AM

There was a known issue with adam warren and hit batsman that was confirmed with players who used the MLB start.

bwburke94 · 01-24-2016, 12:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by diesel230

There was a known issue with adam warren and hit batsman that was confirmed with players who used the MLB start.

So maybe unusually high or low real life HBP rates are the problem here?

01-23-2016, 08:09 PM	#1
abwman Bat Boy Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 15	Hit by Pitch way out of line FYI, the occurrence of hit batsmen seems way out of whack in the simulation. I just finished a game in which Max Scherzer had 3 hit batsmen, and he has accumulated 11 HB in fewer than 80 innings. He averages roughly 5 per season in real life. David Price has 9 in 75 innings, and he had 5 in all of 2015, and has not had more than 5 in any of the last 3 seasons. Jon Lester has 8 in 86 innings, and he had 7 in the whole real 2015 season. Kershaw has 6 HB in 80 innings, and he averages 4 per season lifetime, and had 5 HB in 2015. Altogether, in this simulation, in the first 60 games, the batters for 12 teams are averaging .4 HB per game or more, and 4 are averaging more than .5 per game . In reality, that is roughly twice what it should be. In 60 games, 6 pitchers have 8 or more HB, which equates to more than 20 for the season, and no pitcher had more than 13 HB in 2015. 39 pitchers have 5 or more HB at 60 games, which is roughly the equivalent of 13 for a full season, and in reality, in 2015 only 4 pitchers had 13 HB for the season, and that was the highest amount of all pitchers.

01-23-2016, 10:34 PM	#3
bwburke94 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: Belchertown, MA, USA Posts: 4,447	OOTP doesn't know names, only numbers - so if you give it the wrong numbers, of course it won't produce accurate results!

01-24-2016, 12:49 AM	#4
diesel230 All Star Reserve Join Date: May 2004 Location: Long Island NY Posts: 668	There was a known issue with adam warren and hit batsman that was confirmed with players who used the MLB start.