2019 Mariners: The Reimagining

[jaa36]

The M's dropped three of their last four to finish three games out of the Wild Card behind Oakland and Baltimore. It was a disappointing end to a season where it really looked like the team was going to end its lengthy playoff drought. In the end, the Mariners finished with an 83-79 record that was identical to the previous season.

C.J. Cron finished the season with a remarkable 37 home runs and 122 RBI (good for third in the AL); the 30-year-old Cron is not under contract for next season, and I worry about giving him the three-year deal that he wants when we might be able to replicate his production with younger players, such as Yordan Alvarez, next season. Willie Calhoun was excellent in his rookie year, hitting .299 with a .378 OBP and 20 home runs. J.P. Crawford's stellar defense and .351 OBP propelled him to a 3.6 WAR, while Mitch Haniger led the team in that category (4.1) with a superb all-around season (.344 OBP, 35 doubles, 23 home runs). Buster Posey was awesome in his 53 games with the M's (.424 OBP, 20 doubles), though Anthony Rendon didn't measure up to his $20M/year deal in his limited time.

The rotation saw OK years from Yusei Kikuchi, Framber Valdez and Cionel Perez, though none of the three truly looked the part of an ace. Craig Kimbrel was dominant as the stopper (1.67 ERA, 123 K in 75 1/3 innings), and the remainder of the bullpen was excellent as well, the best in the American League.

We should have a lot of money to spend this offseason to shore up the team. This team should be able to win more than 83 games next year.

[jaa36]

The Indians beat the Phillies in the World Series.

Owner John Stanton was disappointed with our record, but pleased that I acquired a "top player" (Zach Burdi?) and that attendance had improved.

Next year's goals are to reach the playoffs, improve our home runs (we were only 14th in the AL, so I agree). We're also expected to acquire a nationally popular player and improve our attendance and profit within three years, and win the World Series in five years. No quibbles here, Mr. Stanton, and thank you for your consideration.

I allowed bench coach Manny Acta and hitting coach Tim Laker to leave, so they'll need to be replaced. The upcoming free agent crop does not look super great so I may have to get a bit creative with looking for trades.

[jaa36]

That sound you hear is the Mariners pushing all the chips in to win in 2021. In typical fashion, Jerry Dipoto was fast and furious with the trades.

The offseason started with Zach Eflin and Ian Hamilton being swapped to the Washington Nationals for outfielder Adam Eaton and pitcher Seth Romero. The 32-year-old Eaton makes $10.5 million in 2021 and provides a solid bat and decent glove in the outfield. Romero, meanwhile, is the #20 overall prospect heading into 2021, a left-hander who could make a difference in the rotation.

Dipoto struck with a huge trade on November 27, the first day of free agency, when Nolan Arenado came over from the Colorado Rockies for pitcher Marshalll Kasowski, who had been acquired in a trade for minor-leaguer Ryan Hartman earlier in the off-season. The Rockies had been looking to unload Arenado's contract and found a taker in the Mariners. Arenado is a premier talent, an eight-time all-star in his prime who has averaged 6 WAR over his last five seasons. The third baseman makes $35 million this season, and could make $164 million over the following five seasons if he chooses to opt out.

The next blockbuster went down on January 1, when the Mariners acquired the ace they had long pined for, acquiring Noah Syndergaard from the Mets for Cionel Perez, J.P. Crawford, Daniel Vogelbach, and minor leaguers Alex Lange and Adinso Reyes. Syndergaard won the 2020 NL Cy Young, going 17-8 and leading the league with a 2.20 ERA, 233 innings pitched, and 8.9 WAR. At 28 years of age, he's under contract for $152 million over the next six years. We lose two regulars in Crawford and Vogelbach, and a solid rotation piece in Perez, but having Syndergaard on board gives us a legitimate threat in a short playoff series.

You might wonder why we would need Arenado with Rendon already on board for the next six seasons. I looked at trading him, but with Crawford on his way to New York, Rendon trained up at shortstop, and he looks like he should be just fine there, providing us with a truly potent left side of the infield.

With Eaton in the fold, and looking to further bolster the rotation, Mallex Smith was swapped to the Astros for Lance McCullers Jr. Smith had been a solid contributor the last two seasons in Seattle, playing an excellent center field and stealing over 40 bases a season, but McCullers should slot into the second spot of the rotation.

Rookie Yordan Alvarez will take over at first base, with Cuban free agent Juan Pineda serving as his backup. Cavan Biggio will serve as a backup super-sub. Steven Duggar will take over in center, with Mitch Haniger shifting to left and Eaton playing mostly right field.

All this adds up to the Mariners projecting for 94 wins, first place in the AL West. The Mariners haven't made the postseason in 20 years, but John Stanton expects it to happen this season, and so do I!

[Tieran]

Whatever happened to Kelenic? He's vanished from the top Prospects side bar. Did you trade him and I just missed it or did he randomly regress?

[jaa36]

Originally Posted by Tieran

Whatever happened to Kelenic? He's vanished from the top Prospects side bar. Did you trade him and I just missed it or did he randomly regress?

Kelenic dropped to our #18 prospect overall. He broke his hand and missed most of last season, and his rating may have taken a hit as a result, but he could still end up as a decent fourth outfielder.

I hadn't mentioned picking up Alex Bohm, who's now the #31 prospect in baseball- I got him for former second-round pick Kadon Morton. Bohm was excellent at AA Reading last year (.284/39/96) and at age 24, could crack the major-league lineup soon as a first baseman.

The Mariners system is now #10 overall.

[jaa36]

The Mariners defeated the Indians by four touchdowns, 31-3, on April 18. This was the perfect combination of:
-a potent Mariners' offense (seriously)
-an exhausted Indians' pitching staff
-a lineup that took a million 3-2 pitches against position players even when the game was decided
-the AI not knowing how to manage its bullpen

The M's drew a total of 17 walks, including eight against position players Jorge Alfaro and Bobby Bradley. They had 23 hits. The club batted around twice in the ninth inning, scoring 16 (unnecessary) runs.

This was the most runs any team had scored in over 100 years, besting the 30 that Texas scored in 2007. Congrats, Mariners!

[jaa36]

Things unravelled quickly after the 28-run win, as the Mariners dropped eight in a row to plummet to last place in the AL West. The club was swept by the Orioles and the Diamondbacks, neither of whom should actually be any good. It was a combination of poor pitching, timely mental lapses, and an absolute inability to hit in the clutch. To add injury to insult, both Noah Syndergaard and Mitch Haniger went on the IL, though hopefully they will return in early June. Yoenis Cespedes, who had joined the club on a minor-league deal just days before, came up to replace Haniger, and rookie Dylan Cease replaced Thor in the rotation.

Willie Calhoun was a bright spot, hitting in 23 straight games and finishing April with a .350/6/14 mark. Anthony Rendon and Nolan Arenado got off tot good starts as well. The M's lead the league in runs scored, though obviously much of that is related to the 31-run game.

[jaa36]

The M's finally started hitting on all cylinders in May, posting a 19-8 record to put them at 30-24 overall. That's still 5 1/2 games behind the Angels, who got off to a great start, but at least in the hunt.

Nolan Arenado has been stellar in his first season in a Mariners uniform, hitting .286 with 14 home runs (including nine in the month of May) and leading the league in RBI with 45. Buster Posey hit .376 for the month, and Nick Gordon is somehow hitting .355. The combination of Craig Kimbrel, Zach Burdi and Alfredo Bautista has made for a very stout end of the bullpen. Framber Valdez and Brendan McKay have both been solid members of the rotation.

Noah Syndergaard's return was delayed slightly, but having him back soon will be a big boost, and otherwise the team is relatively healthy--Adam Eaton suffered a knee sprain but should return soon.

I made a few deals to shore up our minor league depth, acquiring pitchers Jayce Vancena and Albert Abreu from the Giants and Yankees respectively, giving up former prospects Evan White and Sam Carlson, neither of which really figured in our plans moving forward. Vancena was named the #25 prospect in MLB, and Abreu #33, though I'm not sure I would necessarily think of them quite that highly. I also picked up infielders Vidal Brujan and Taylor Walls from Tampa Bay for Seth Beer (the BNN headline read "Seattle Mariners Ship Beer to Tampa Bay"), which also necessitated losing Nick Solak on waivers. I'm hoping to be able to pick up a decent player or two near the trade deadline to bolster our playoff run.

[jaa36]

The M's put together another solid month, going 16-11 overall, and head into the second half with a 46-35 record, three and a half games behind the Astros. The club has the best run differential in baseball (+123) but has a losing record in one-run games and extra-inning games, which has led to a seven-game shortfall as compared to our Pythagorean record.

There were a couple of opportunities to improve the club, and with Anthony Rizzo suddenly appearing on the trade block, I swapped Adam Eaton to Chicago in exchange for Rizzo and outfielder Albert Almora. Rizzo makes $16.5M in the last year of his contract, with the Cubs picking up 40% of that to even out the money. He's a four-time all-star with both a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger to his name, and has great leadership skills to boot. Rizzo had a relatively slow start to the season, but he's a consistent four-win player who slides right into the middle of the lineup. Almora himself is no slouch, providing a pretty good bad and solid defense in center field.

That deal came a day after Mitch Haniger was sent to San Diego for starting pitcher Dinelson Lamet. Haniger had put up three consecutive excellent seasons in a Mariners uniform, but upon returning from injury, we didn't necessarily need him, with Steven Duggar and rookie Luis Alexander Basabe performing well enough. Lamet makes just $2M this season, and has two more seasons of team control after this year; he hasn't necessarily put up eye-popping numbers, but he should be able to give us five good innings and stabilize the back end of the rotation.

There was some pressure to do so because of the loss of Lance McCullers Jr. to a partially torn labrum. McCullers should be able to return by the end of the season. Just a few days later, Alfredo Bautista was lost for the season after he was hit in the elbow my a comeback; the flamethrowing Bautista put up a 1.63 ERA in 38 2/3 innings this season. Nick Gordon was also injured but should be back in just a few days.

Zack Burdi and Wyatt Mills were both incredible out of the bullpen in June, posting a 0.63 and 0.56 ERA respectively. Framber Valdez was 3-0 with a 2.67 ERA in six starts. On the not so good side, Yusei Kikuchi was pounded for 21 runs in the month, including a clunker in which he gave up seven runs in the first inning.

Nolan Arenado continued to dominate the league, hitting .352 with six home runs. Yordan Alvarez did everything he could to not lose his job at first base, with a .327 average and .426 OBP, but with Rizzo now on board, he might be the best pinch hitter in baseball. Albert Almora made friends quickly, hitting .436 in his first eleven games.

We chose outfielder Grant Burton with the #17 overall pick. Burton is 21 and looks like he'll combine a good bat with solid defense. The next 11 picks all came from the college ranks as well.

[jaa36]

The M's continued to shoot up the standings, winning 17 games and losing 8 to end the month with a 63-43 record overall. That's the second-best record in the AL, but four games behind the Astros. The team was led by the incredible Nolan Arenado, who won the AL Player of the Month award after hitting .343 with 15 home runs and 38 RBI. Arenado has already reached the century mark for runs batted in, with two months to go, proving he can hit every bit as well in the marine layer of Seattle as he could at a mile of altitude in Denver.

The other themes for July were injuries, and trades. Four pitchers went on the IL, the most significant loss being Craig Kimbrel, who is gone for the season with shoulder inflammation. Kimbrel finished his season with a 2.37 ERA in 49 1/3 innings. Shawn Armstrong may also be gone for the season, though Jared Miller and newly-acquired Justin Wilson will likely return in a few weeks. Noah Syndergaard hurt his back, but thankfully will return without missing a start.

We swung deals for a total of five relievers in the month: the aforementioned Wilson, Corey Knebel, Durbin Feltman, Sean Doolittle, and Chris Archer. The other team is paying for 100% of the salaries of Knebel, Wilson, and Archer, and 90% of Doolittle, while Feltman is making the league minimum; Wilson and Doolittle will remain (essentially) free for us next year as well. Archer had been a capable starter with the Twins the last two seasons, but joins us in a long reliever role. Knebel and Feltman shore up the back end of the bullpen with Kimbrel and Alfredo Bautista lost. The biggest piece we lost in all these deals was pitcher Seth Romero, who was the #19 prospect this season, but pitched poorly in three brief stints with the club, and each time we sent him down I got a message saying the team was glad we had gotten rid of him.

Never satisfied with the outfield mix, I also picked up David Peralta from the Orioles for infielder Xavier Edwards. Peralta also will play for us for free this year and next, and provides solid pop against righties and decent defense in left field. This led Yordan Alvarez to be sent to the minors; all he did was put up a .404 on-base percentage.

Buster Posey was the All-Star Game MVP, with two hits, including a home run. Framber Valdez, Arenado, Willie Calhoun, and the injured Kimbrel and Bautista also made the club.

We picked up Venezuelan teenager Elpidio Verride for $5.4M, who might hit, but has no other skills whatsoever.

[jaa36]

Yet another winning month (16-11) leaves the Mariners at 79-54 heading into September. That's the second-best record in the American League, but still four and a half games behind Houston. A playoff spot is all but locked up, as the M's are 5.5 games up on the Angels and 6.5 up on the Yankees in the Wild Card race. It would take a really strong September to overtake the Astros, but we do have six more games against them, so it's possible.

Nolan Arenado is making a strong argument for MVP honors, putting up another terrific month (.327/8/15). He leads the league in home runs and RBI, and he's second in the league in WAR (7.5), trailing only Francisco Lindor of the Indians. Willie Calhoun was an absolute monster in August, hitting .363 with 11 home runs. Anthony Rizzo has turned it on somewhat and has a 13-game hitting streak.

On the pitching side, Corey Knebel pitched 14 scoreless innings, striking out 24 batters and walking only one. Noah Syndergaard got three wins, and also hit a grand slam in a 21-2 rout of the Dodgers. Lance McCullers Jr. returns from injury this week, and the staff now includes seven capable starting pitchers, with Chris Archer and Dinelson Lamet both serving in long relief roles.

[jaa36]

A scorching run through September and October helped the M's run away with the AL West, as they passed the Astros as if they were standing still. The team won 24 of its last 30 games, including the last seven in a row. Seattle finished with a 102-60 record, its best finish since the record-setting 2001 M's. The team led the league in both runs scored and in run prevention- a truly balanced team from top to bottom.

Several Mariners had outstanding years at the plate. Nolan Arenado finished with a .311 average, 48 home runs, and a league-leading 132 RBI, totaling 8.2 WAR, which was third in the league. Willie Calhoun led the league in runs scored, with 122, and hit .302 with 39 home runs, managing 108 RBI despite mostly batting leadoff. Buster Posey narrowly finished in second place for the AL batting title, hitting .323. Nick Gordon hit .337 and slammed 38 doubles in just 389 at-bats, compiling 4.8 WAR.

While Noah Syndergaard didn't quite match expectations, falling off a bit from his Cy Young season, he was still effective, going 10-5 with a 3.88 ERA. Framber Valdez (9-5, 3.24) and Brendan McKay (12-4, 2.57) were both quite good in the rotation. The bullpen was dominant, as ten relievers with significant roles posted an ERA of 3.00 or better, led by Chris Archer's 1.09 mark in long relief.

Nolan Arenado has a minor injury to his throwing arm, and Anthony Rendon sat out the last week with back tightness, but both should be good to go for the postseason. Albert Almora suffered an intercostal strain and will be out until near the end of October; he played well for the M's, but is replaceable. The team should be rested and refreshed for the first round of the playoffs- the Mariners' first trip to the postseason in 20 years.

[jaa36]

The Mariners won a tense five-game series against the Astros to advance to the ALCS!!

Noah Syndergaard was the hero, providing dominating starts in games one and five. He pitched 7 1/3 shutout innings in his first start, striking out seven and walking nobody, and then went eight innings in game five, striking out eight and again walking nobody, and allowing just one run. He certainly deserved MVP honors for the series- and that's what we acquired him for in the first place.

The M's won the first game easily, 9-0, and took the second game 4-2, with Nolan Arenado providing all the offense with a grand slam. The offense sputtered when the team went to Houston, losing 4-3 and 5-2, but they did just enough to win the deciding game 3-1.

The M's host the 94-win Tampa Bay Rays to kick off the best-of-seven ALCS. Alfredo Bautista has returned from injury, and with the Rays a mostly-lefty team at the plate, I made the tough decision to leave Chris Archer (1.04 ERA in 34 2/3 relief innings, including postseason) off the roster for the series.

[jaa36]

A SWEEP propels the Mariners to the World Series for the first time in franchise history!!! Nick Gordon won the ALCS MVP after hitting .385 and hitting two home runs in the series. The pitching held up very well, with the Rays scoring only 12 runs over the four games. The M's were in control in every game, especially Game Two, where the club jumped out to a 9-1 lead after two innings.

The team is now essentially at full strength, with Alfredo Bautista and Albert Almora both back from injuries. The same can't be said for our opponent, the Dodgers, who just lost Cody Bellinger to a bizarre garage-door related injury, and are also short Walker Buehler and several other pitchers. Despite those losses, the 99-win Dodgers are a formidable opponent, but we have the advantage of nearly a week off while Los Angeles just finished a hard-fought seven-game series against the Braves.

[jaa36]

The Mariners have won the 2021 World Series!!!

Seattle defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers in six games to take their first-ever World Series championship. Nick Gordon followed up his ALCS MVP with a World Series MVP, hitting .364 with a home run and 8 RBI, but there were plenty of other contributors as well. Five members of the bullpen were unscored upon in the series, including Sean Doolittle, with 4 2/3 innings, and Framber Valdez pitched six shutout innings in his only start. Three other hitters were .300 or better in the series.

The Dodgers took game one, with Tyler Glasnow outdueling Noah Syndergaard 1-0 in the opener. Gordon's five RBI in game two led the M's to a 10-4 victory.

As the series headed to Los Angeles, Valdez shined in game three, leading Seattle to a 1-0 win of its own. The Dodgers then walloped Brendan McKay and several relievers 13-0 to tie the series 2-2, the third shutout in the series.

Game five was a tense affair ultimately won by the Mariners. Glasnow and Syndergaard both gave up three runs in the first. Each team scored two more, and in the late innings, both teams missed great opportunities to take the lead but failed to do so, and the game headed into extras tied at 5. Gordon singled in the go-ahead run in the 12th inning, and scored an insurance run which proved to be needed as Zac Houston just held on for a 7-6 win.

Game six wasn't quite as dramatic, but saw Lance McCullers Jr. pitch five solid innings, and Gordon had two hits to stake the M's to a 6-2 lead. That proved to be enough, as the bullpen held on the rest of the way for a 6-3 win, and the Mariners were world champions.

Looking back three years, it was hard to imagine that the M's would make such a dramatic turnaround so quickly, but here we are! I'll relinquish direct control of the team and sim out the next few seasons.