Live Cards Ratings & Roster Update #2

[Kris Jardine]

Here is this week's Live Card ratings & roster update which is now available in Perfect Team.

[Markus Heinsohn]

We have further tweaked the rating algorithm, so you may see slight changes to players who did not even play this past week. From this point on the rating algorithm is final and things will be stable in the future

[allenciox]

So one head-scratcher, Max Fried was a pitcher who was supposed to languish in the minors for Atlanta this season. Instead he has been lights-out so far, with no earned runs in 13 2/3 innings and is now expected to stay in the starting rotation even when the players get off the disabled list. But you have him falling in the ratings from 70 before the season to 66 now. I see other players on the same team that have underperformed but have been rewarded by ratings increases. What are you basing this on then?

[CrazyWR]

thanks for this!

[Matt Arnold]

Originally Posted by allenciox

So one head-scratcher, Max Fried was a pitcher who was supposed to languish in the minors for Atlanta this season. Instead he has been lights-out so far, with no earned runs in 13 2/3 innings and is now expected to stay in the starting rotation even when the players get off the disabled list. But you have him falling in the ratings from 70 before the season to 66 now. I see other players on the same team that have underperformed but have been rewarded by ratings increases. What are you basing this on then?

I can't speak to it 100%, but most likely partly due to his K rate still being pretty low, and as well, the fact that he has both started and relieved this year the automatic update is likely still rating him as a reliever, and so gets depressed in overall ratings.

He might be a good player to buy, though, since obviously if he keeps it up, he'll certainly be moving back up the ratings

[Tieran]

Uh why does the Sheet have Eloy as a 94 overall whereas Tatis has been better and is an 86? Also Alonso a 91? You're seriously overestimating these rookies.

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by Tieran

Uh why does the Sheet have Eloy as a 94 overall whereas Tatis has been better and is an 86? Also Alonso a 91? You're seriously overestimating these rookies.

This is not totally based on their performance so far, it's also based on their base ratings/projections as well, and since Eloy's was higher than Tatis, he starts off higher.

As to whether we're overrating them or not, that remains to be seen. We may be overrating them indeed, they do start off pretty high, but you'd have said the same thing if we'd had Juan Soto rated as a high 90's player at the beginning of last year.

Top prospects as rookies the last few years sure seem to be able to hit the ground running in many cases, and some of them have put up pretty amazing performances.

Tatis and Alonso have all started off in the same vein, with blazing hot starts while Eloy has swung a solid bat so far. Plus, all three are elite prospects, with really high expectations.

They might not keep it up, but if so their ratings will fall. If they do keep it up, they're probably rated pretty fairly.

[herbyhancok]

Yeah, I'm fine with the rookies being rated whatever. I just wish the updates reflected the on-field performance so guys would move towards a rating that mirrors their real-life accomplishments.

[dkgo]

hopefully it's true this is the last time the baseline is readjusted and things will start to make more sense going forward

I get the difference between predictive vs descriptive numbers and someones underlying metrics can be masked by good luck, but right now there are a lot of cases of plain silliness like aj minter's 3 strikeouts and 1 walk over three innings earning a bump from 87 to 92

[atabakin]

Originally Posted by Kris Jardine

Here is this week's Live Card ratings & roster update which is now available in Perfect Team.

Much appreciated. This shows rating changes compared to the original, Week 0 value (i.e. Anthony Rendon still shows up as a 100 even though he didn't move over the last week). Is there anything that shows changes just compared to last week?

[herbyhancok]

If you have experience with Excel just copy the value column from last week's spreadsheet, insert it then just do a column of cells subtracting the difference.

*Doh, nevermind I forgot that not all players are listed. So the fields wouldnt be the same.

[atabakin]

Originally Posted by herbyhancok

If you have experience with Excel just copy the value column from last week's spreadsheet, insert it then just do a column of cells subtracting the difference.

*Doh, nevermind I forgot that not all players are listed. So the fields wouldnt be the same.

I mean, you could do vlookup and such, but seeing the weekly difference isn't *that* important to me...

[Matt Arnold]

Here (I think) should be the version with the weekly difference:
XLsX: https://www.dropbox.com/s/wp1prab98w...2015.xlsx?dl=0
CSV: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zl6a4j424m...%2015.csv?dl=0

Just using a basic vlookup so it's possible that some matches may not work, but if anyone wants the quick lookup of this week's diff here they are

[Stacopanks]

Sean Doolittle is 3-0 1 save 0 era and he has gone down 5 overall since the game has started...

aj minter 0-1 4.50 era 4 ip 4 k 1.75 whip he has gone up 5!

Something is wrong with the ratings...

[mrbucket]

Originally Posted by Stacopanks

Sean Doolittle is 3-0 1 save 0 era and he has gone down 5 overall since the game has started...

aj minter 0-1 4.50 era 4 ip 4 k 1.75 whip he has gone up 5!

Something is wrong with the ratings...

Sean Doolittle's K/9 is down on his projections and his BB/9 is up. HR/9 is down (at zero) but the algorithm is likely skeptical on that. I doubt that Wins/Saves/ERA factors into the rating at all.



I've got nothing on Minter though.

[CurlyKarkovice]

Originally Posted by Stacopanks

Sean Doolittle is 3-0 1 save 0 era and he has gone down 5 overall since the game has started...

aj minter 0-1 4.50 era 4 ip 4 k 1.75 whip he has gone up 5!

Something is wrong with the ratings...

Right or wrong it could be an opportunity to buy someone low and sell someone high. I haven't looked AH Doolittle up but if people are panicking because they see that little -5 red number on their player's card and he's pitching that well it might be a buying oppo.

[atabakin]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

Here (I think) should be the version with the weekly difference:
XLsX: https://www.dropbox.com/s/wp1prab98w...2015.xlsx?dl=0
CSV: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zl6a4j424m...%2015.csv?dl=0

Just using a basic vlookup so it's possible that some matches may not work, but if anyone wants the quick lookup of this week's diff here they are

Thanks for putting this together. It still seems off a little. For example, it shows Chapman and Scherzer with changes of 0 even though they moved to 100. At initial glance my guess is this returned the expected result if a player changed value each of these two weeks.

[Matt Arnold]

Originally Posted by atabakin

Thanks for putting this together. It still seems off a little. For example, it shows Chapman and Scherzer with changes of 0 even though they moved to 100. At initial glance my guess is this returned the expected result if a player changed value each of these two weeks.

Yeah, sorry looks like I had a wrong default value. Just updated again to hopefully fix that.

[sharpk23]

Did all the new cards get added to the game? Looks like there were 31 cards on the list that are brand new to the game, but the total count only went from 1037 to 1066 (29). I'm down to 9 more MLB LIVE Cards left to get, but 11 possibilities on the sheet. Did a few guys on the list not make the game?

[2002halos]

Yes, I'd like to see the list of the 29 new cards myself, I was down to just needing one card in the first week, and I didn't have time to go after many of the 30 cards added in the second week, but at least I have the list y'all posted.


Currently 29 cards short.... all from the 59 added after the season began.