Switch-hitting: a hidden benefit?

[Argonaut]

So after I've watched Josh Bell in an online league play better than I expected for my White Sox team, I decided to do some tests around switch-hitting.

Hypothesis

It makes logical sense that a switch-hitter will do better than a righty or lefty with equal ratings, because of how OOTP works. The batter's ratings are factored on top of the ratings of the pitcher he is facing, and pitchers will tend to have better ratings against same handedness batters. Switch-hitters negate that effect by swapping sides of the plate.

Methodology

But how big is the effect? I tested the Pirates version of Josh Bell in OOTP21, putting him up against the Rangers, Reds, Athletics, and Cubs. I simulated 10,000 games each with Bell as S/R/L with the same ratings.

For the rotations, Texas has 4 RHP and 1 LHP, the Reds 5 RHP, the Athletics 2 RHP and 3 LHP, and the Cubs 3 RHP and 2 LHP. So there's a good mix of different looks from teams.

Results

I've attached the results below. As expected, RHB Bell struggles against the Reds rotation, and LHB Bell struggles against the Athletics rotation. But Switch Bell steadily performs well whatever he faces.

The only time where switch-hitting didn't provide much benefit was against the Cubs, where LHB Bell actually was a bit better than the Switch Bell. Could be random variance. The Cubs had a fairly balanced 2 LHP in the rotation and 2 LHP in the bullpen, which could have been a factor.

But overall, as expected switch-hitting will provide a hidden benefit for players of equal ratings. This is most pronounced against heavy RHP or LHP teams.

Caveat

The one instance I can think of switch-hitting being a drawback is with certain park factors. Some parks favour LHB or RHB more in AVG and/or POW. The batter could jump to the "wrong" side of the plate in some parks. But I feel that having the side advantage against pitchers will be better in most parks. This doesn't include Perfect Team which can have some very skewed park factors.

Numbers

Based on my non-exhaustive testing, the hidden benefit comes down to a 3.1% better OPS than a RHB with equal ratings, and a 1.8% better OPS than a LHB with equal ratings.

Not a massive benefit, but worth considering. An .885 OPS certainly "looks" better than a .858 OPS. Every little edge in baseball and OOTP counts.

[koohead]

Wonder why he performed consistently lower against the A's though? Park factors? Or did you sim all of the games at CHW?

[Argonaut]

Originally Posted by koohead

Wonder why he performed consistently lower against the A's though? Park factors? Or did you sim all of the games at CHW?

I think the A's have a pitcher's park. And their rotation and bullpen is pretty good.

All tests would have half the games in Pittsburgh and half in the relevant opponent's park. This is the base OOTP21 Pirates version of Josh Bell, not the one in my online league.

[Matt Arnold]

I don't think it's really a hidden benefit. I mean, the whole reason switch hitting exists is so that the player gets the platoon advantage in every AB.

[Argonaut]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

I don't think it's really a hidden benefit. I mean, the whole reason switch hitting exists is so that the player gets the platoon advantage in every AB.

Right, I get that from a baseball perspective.

I say it's hidden in OOTP in the sense of looking at player ratings. Both the standard CON/POW/EYE and the OVR/POT. If you take a switch-hitter and compare them with a RHB or LHB with identical ratings, the switch-hitter will be better. Even though the commissioner mode editor will "guess" that their expected OPS will be exactly the same.

It's just something to keep in mind when doing a lot of things in OOTP like drafting or sorting through free agents or trade options or whatever. If you sort by Contact or Potential or what have you, any switch-hitters will likely be a bit better than expected.

[CBeisbol]

Right

The switch hitting effect is compounded. And probably should be reported as a bug.

Suppose two real life hitters both hit for an .850 OPS (imagine they were on the same team, faced the same opponents in the same stadiums, etc) and had the same left/right splits. We'd say they were equal hitters. And should have equal ratings.

However, if one were a switch-hitter, and the other not, the switch hitter would outperform the other hitter in OOTP.

The platoon advantage is already "baked in" to the real life stats that produced the ratings. But OOTP is adding that platoon advantage again to the stats produced by the game. The platoon advantage is being double counted.


Excellent find, Argonaut

[ROY_Angel_Berroa]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

I don't think it's really a hidden benefit. I mean, the whole reason switch hitting exists is so that the player gets the platoon advantage in every AB.

Yep. I think the research done here is excellent and insightful, but I think that switch hitters benefit twofold IRL because of the platoon advantage. Most switch hitters though perform better from one side over the other (typically from the left side) and this would show up in their ratings.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by ROY_Angel_Berroa

Yep. I think the research done here is excellent and insightful, but I think that switch hitters benefit twofold IRL because of the platoon advantage. Most switch hitters though perform better from one side over the other (typically from the left side) and this would show up in their ratings.

But, it appears they are getting the benefit twice

Once in real life, which influences their ratings
And a second time in the game in which the already influenced ratings influence the created performance in the game

[Argonaut]

Just to clarify, the hidden boost that switch-hitters get is from the pitcher platoon splits.

If every pitcher had an over-the-top arm slot and perfectly neutral splits, then a switch-hitter would perform exactly the same as a RHB or LHB with equal ratings.

[Biggio509]

Originally Posted by Argonaut

Just to clarify, the hidden boost that switch-hitters get is from the pitcher platoon splits.

If every pitcher had an over-the-top arm slot and perfectly neutral splits, then a switch-hitter would perform exactly the same as a RHB or LHB with equal ratings.

So it sounds like it is working right.

[Biggio509]

Originally Posted by Argonaut

Just to clarify, the hidden boost that switch-hitters get is from the pitcher platoon splits.

If every pitcher had an over-the-top arm slot and perfectly neutral splits, then a switch-hitter would perform exactly the same as a RHB or LHB with equal ratings.

The Reds rotation is the most interesting because it is all right handers, you don't have the possibility of really banging up on the more advantageous split is making for up doing worse against having to take the less advantageous split at times. So we should have expected a better switch OPS over right but there is no reason to expect a better switch than left against the reds. If he is batting left all the time it should be about the same as being a lefty. The .008 difference isn't huge though it is about .9% difference (.912-.904)/.904.

Bullpen? Is it is mixed or does it reflect the starting rotation?

It seems a better test would be to duplicate the same pitcher who has different left and right splits or maybe 2, one for starters and one for bullpen, then run the difference between left, right, and switch maybe for the whole test team who will face them or even for both teams. Essentially a 2 team league with a neutral park. Both teams could have 1 starter duplicated to make a 5 man rotation and 1 bullpen pitcher duplicated to fill out the bullpen. Then you could test one or all the hitters against the 1 or 2 man pitching staffs. Ideally one team would have a stronger right handed split pitcher or pitchers and one a stronger left handed spilt so one team faces the same righty and one faces the same lefty.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by Biggio509

So it sounds like it is working right.

Not if Argo's test and results are correct

If there's a right-handed hitter who has IRL stats of a .850 OPS against right-handed pitchers, we should expect him to hit .850 against right-handed pitchers in the game. And, it appears, he does.

But, if there's a switch hitter who has IRL stats of a .850 OPS against right-handed pitchers who we expect to hit .850 against right-handed pitchers in the game, he ends up hitting better than .850.

[Biggio509]

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

Not if Argo's test and results are correct

If there's a right-handed hitter who has IRL stats of a .850 OPS against right-handed pitchers, we should expect him to hit .850 against right-handed pitchers in the game. And, it appears, he does.

But, if there's a switch hitter who has IRL stats of a .850 OPS against right-handed pitchers who we expect to hit .850 against right-handed pitchers in the game, he ends up hitting better than .850.

Which may or may not a problem. Like I said in the last post when you have a mixed rotation it is hard to say if the taking advantage of the splits is what drives the higher OPS for switch vs. left or right. You just don't know if switching sides means he is really killing it against the 2 or 3 pitchers the player is taking advantage of by switch hitting.

So to me the Reds is the only valid test with 5 RHP and you only see .008 difference in OPS from a switch hitter who is always hitting left and a lefty which is less 1% difference.

So there maybe something here but I don't find it definitive as of yet. I think a test like I described where the controls are tightly set would answer it. Still the no difference when it is the pitchers are neutral suggests it is all from taking advantage of splits. I would guess that .88% difference in switch vs. left against all RHP in the Reds games is just normal game engine variance. Also we don't about bullpens and how this effects the numbers if the batter was facing a mix of potential relief pitchers.

[Argonaut]

The Reds test isn't the only good one. The "best" comparison is the aggregate of all 5, because that's more of what you'd face in a season.

Anyway I'll try to emphasize again that the switch-hitting Josh Bell is outpeforming himself -- the same Josh Bell with the same ratings -- as either a RHB or LHB.

As CBeisbol is rightly inferring, this means that switch-hitters get their real-life platoon advantage in MLB, and their ratings come into OOTP accordingly. They then get an extra platoon advantage in OOTP because pitchers have their own splits.

Platoon advantage all-around is probably better in OOTP than real life, because the batters and pitchers both have splits, doubling the overall effect. Unless each batter and pitcher split effect is "halved"? I dunno.

Anyway, maybe this is hard to explain. I tried the best I could. I'm not advocating for a change or anything, just found it interesting that switch-hitters are a bit better than expected by their ratings.

[Brad K]

Lifetime Bell is .238/.318/423 versus left handed pitchers and .274/.366/.496 versus right handed pitching. Your tests don't show anything near that difference. Let me ask you, do the ratings support the test results? If so, the ratings are wrong.

I don't know because I haven't bought OOTP with "real" splits (I need a new computer first) but is it still using the system where the ratings assume 3/4 of the plate appearances are vs RHP? If so then plugging in real L/R only is accurate for players with that ratio.

[Brad K]

Assuming Bell is a natural LHB, maybe switching is gaining him nothing or even hurting him. A 36 point drop for a LHB vs LHP is in the typical range. It would be expected he would do better switching but he isn't.

[Argonaut]

I don't recall Josh Bell's exact split ratings in OOTP, not at the computer now. But maybe that's part of the reason why he did worse overall against Oakland and their 3 LHP SPs. Given the real life slash lines from Brad K.

But what I'm saying is if you take a LHB with the exact same slash lines as Bell in real life... this hypothetical batter will be about 1.8% worse than Bell in OOTP.

[Brad K]

"But what I'm saying is if you take a LHB with the exact same slash lines as Bell in real life... this hypothetical batter will be about 1.8% worse than Bell in OOTP"

How, if he has the same L/R ratings?

[Argonaut]

I've tried to explain that in this thread a few times. I'm sorry if it's not clear. My first language is Canadian so that may be it.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Argonaut

I've tried to explain that in this thread a few times. I'm sorry if it's not clear. My first language is Canadian so that may be it.

Probably me. My first language is semi rural Indiana Hilljack. <G>