Oddball Historical Sims - Season 1

[JD396]

One of the things I’ve always liked in OOTP is oddball historical simulations – cobbling together different teams from history and pitting them against one another.

For me, historical simulations are a window into baseball history. By using different kinds of criteria to filter the list of the nearly 3,000 individual seasons that have been played from 1871 to 2019, one can find a lot of really interesting history to explore - from the biggest, most famous moments to the obscure - that you wouldn’t necessarily learn about otherwise.

I’ve been doing sims like this for quite a while, and occasionally post some of the results on the OOTP Discord server. As much as I’d like to write up something a bit more detailed, I’m just going to have to pass, because I simply don’t have time, unless some deadly plague spreads around the globe and shuts down civilization and I find myself sitting at home for weeks on end. Right, like that would ever…

…what? You mean there’s a… OK! Well, in that case…

For my first Oddball Historical Sim writeup, I’m going for the Best Thirty Teams Showdown. So, first things first, I need to figure out who the Best Thirty Teams are. It sounds simple enough, but it can be surprisingly involved trying to figure out who to include to make both the most accurate, and most entertaining list.

The first question is, how does one define “best”? For this sim, I’m going off of regular season success. That will naturally lead to a lot of World Series champions, but many notable World Series teams won’t be anywhere close to the list. Teams can excel in the playoffs without lighting the world on fire during the season – missing this list is no knock on them at all. There's just something to be said for the teams that dominated the entire regular season, and there are other sims I have in mind for World Series champions in general! So, to find the best regular season teams, I start by sorting through my master list, pulling the top 30 teams by win percentage, using their Pythagorean win percentage as a tiebreaker if needed.

Here we encounter another issue: the top 16 teams, and 24 of the top 30, are all from 1871-1909, with the best being the 1875 Boston Red Stockings – the franchise that will eventually become the Atlanta Braves. They had a record of 71-8, an .899 winning percentage. That’s an incredible number, of course, and a winning percentage like that has only been matched in modern North American sports by a few NBA teams, like Michael Jordan’s Bulls or the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors. This checks the box of being one of the Best Thirty Teams, but the problem that makes things difficult is that teams of that era were just built differently. Throughout the season, the Red Stockings used a total of 13 players on their roster. Not 13 pitchers, not 13 players at once… 13 total players throughout the entire season. It’s most evident with their pitching staff:



Yes, a total of five players, four of which were position players, took the mound for the Red Stockings in 1875. These days, you’d be lucky to get through seven innings with five pitchers. Hall-of-Famer Al Spalding (yes, Spalding as in Spalding… he is credited with popularizing the use of baseball gloves when he started using them in 1877) was more like a starting quarterback than a member of a pitching rotation – starting 62 of 79 games, and relieving in another 10. That’s the modern-day equivalent of a pitcher starting 127 games and making another 21 relief appearances – this would result in something like 1,172 innings pitched! On top of that, he played over 100 innings between first base and the outfield. Jack Manning mostly played outfield, and McVey, Wright, and Heifer were all position players. As interesting as it might be to see how that would play against other eras, it’s just hard to take a team with that kind of roster construction and player usage, and put it up against more modern teams over the course of a long season. Exploring this era of baseball could be quite interesting, and I’ve got some ideas on leveling the playing field against other eras. For this particular sim, though, I’m going to keep it a bit more modern.

Roster construction issues like this persist all the way through the deadball era, so I filtered 1920 and earlier out of the list. That presents a different problem – there are only 12 franchises involved, and 17 of the top 30 are from three franchises. Predictably, ten of the top 30 are Yankees teams. Three are the 1929-31 Philadelphia Athletics, and four are St. Louis Cardinals, including the 1942-44 teams. That’s all well and good, but I find that these kinds of projects are a lot more fun if there are more franchises and a wider range of years involved. In order to achieve that, we somehow need to cull some of the teams out of the list.

To keep the list open while still recognizing great teams, if a team has entries within five years of one another, rather than having each team in the sim, I’m going to pick one, usually either the winningest team, or the championship winner. For example, the 1969-1971 Orioles mathematically would have three entries, but I’ll take the champion 1970 Orioles as the representative of that three-year run. This will allow a lot more teams into the fold.

Ultimately, compiling a list like this isn’t easy, as you can “what about” yourself into cardiac arrest trying to decide which teams to add or drop. I mostly let the data do the talking and stick with as many of the highest win percentage teams as possible, but I had to make a few judgment calls to keep the list interesting. I’ll spare the rest of the gory details of how exactly I arrived here, and show you my final list:



Most of the best “dynasties” are represented in one way or another here, but there’s just no way to compile a list like this without leaving some very deserving teams out. However, I think it strikes a good balance between being the best teams, and getting as much representation of different eras and franchises as possible.

One last little thing regarding the setup – I’m using 1973 as a neutral era. Since there’s a 92-year spread here, I thought it was fair to pick the midpoint between 1927 and 2019. In other games I might use the average number, but that landed at 1982 and I felt that was a little too far towards the end of the spectrum. I also opted for the DH in this sim, despite the fact that there were more non-DH teams than DH teams. After looking through each roster, I figured it helped more than hurt overall.

So, with that... it's time to go about setting up the league! I'm setting up these 30 teams into the modern MLB structure - two conferences with three divisions each. To divide the teams up, I established a rule that a team cannot be in the same division with a past or future incarnation of themselves. The guy running the time machine is working from home due to COVID-19, but I was FaceTiming with him and he mumbled about destroying the very fabric of time and space, so I'll just separate them. Here's the divisional alignments I came up with:



I went NHL/NBA-style and expanded the playoffs significantly, as well. The division winners and the top 5 runners-up in each conference will make the playoffs, making for 16 total playoff teams. They'll face each other in 7-game series all the way through to the World Series. I figure this will make for some fun to cap off the season. I mixed it up a little bit - the conference quarterfinal and semifinal rounds will have the NHL/NBA HH-AA-H-A-H format. For the Conference Championship and World Series, it will revert to the classic HH-AAA-HH format.

Up Next: We'll start meeting the teams in the sim in a bit more detail, and we'll get the season going! I'm not entirely sure how I'll format the posts going forward, but I'm sure I'll figure something out.

[JD396]

American Conference – Division A Spotlight

As the season gets going, I’ll spend the first six weeks highlighting the teams in each division, and run through other items of interest that happen during the week!

1927 New York Yankees (110-94)
Result: Won World Series, 4-0 over Pittsburgh Pirates
Top Player: Babe Ruth (12.5 bWAR)
Manager: Miller Huggins

In all of baseball history, only the 1954 Indians, 1998 Yankees, 2001 Mariners won more games than the 1927 Yankees - widely regarded as the greatest team in baseball history. Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig led “Murderer’s Row”, which slugged the Yankees to their second-ever World Series championship in 1927 and into legend. The Yankees established a dynasty that over the years would win many, many more rings through the years.

1979 Baltimore Orioles (102-57)
Result: Lost World Series, 4-3 to Pittsburgh Pirates
Top Player: Ken Singleton (5.3 bWAR)
Manager: Earl Weaver

The 1979 Orioles brought the team back to prominence after the end of their late 60’s/early 70’s run. They rode a great pitching staff and a balanced lineup to 102 wins and the World Series, but blew a 3-1 series lead to lose to the “We Are Family” Pittsburgh Pirates. They didn’t win the series, but the Orioles regained popularity in 1979, and the team saw attendance increase after bottoming out in the mid 70’s. Eventually, they would win the World Series in 1983, after the emergence of Cal Ripken, Jr.

1994 Montreal Expos (74-40)
Result: Nothing, due to the Strike
Top Player: Moises Alou (5.1 bWAR)
Manager: Felipe Alou

At the time the 1994 season came to an abrupt end, the Expos were the best team in baseball. With a win percentage of .649, the 94 Expos were one of the best teams not to have an opportunity in the playoffs (there’s a sim idea), and the best in the divisional era. If they had their chance and won the World Series, would they ever have moved? At the time, they were drawing over 30,000 actual human fans per game, and had Pedro Martinez on the mound and Moises Alou, Marquis Grissom, and Larry Walker in the lineup. Vladimir Guerrero would come along in a couple years. Could they have built a dynasty? I guess we’ll never know. When baseball returned in 1995, the magic wasn’t there, and they never found the playoffs the rest of their tenure in Montreal.

2004 St. Louis Cardinals (105-57)
Result: Lost World Series, 4-0 to Boston Red Sox
Top Player: Scott Rolen (9.2 bWAR)
Manager: Tony La Russa

The Cardinals dominated the NL Central in the early 2000’s. Jim Edmonds’ run in St. Louis began in 2000 – he began his run alongside players like Mark McGwire, Edgar Renteria, and J.D. Drew, and saw the emergence of stars like Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina. The Cardinals would have to wait for some streak-ending for their chance at a World Series – getting swept by the Red Sox in 2004 and losing the NLCS to the Astros, fodder for the White Sox in 2005. They would go on to win the World Series in 2006 and 2011 and the NL Pennant in 2013 – but with 105 wins, the 2004 season was perhaps their best overall.

2019 Los Angeles Dodgers (106-56)
Result: Lost NLDS, 3-2 to Washington Nationals
Top Player: Cody Bellinger (9.1 bWAR)
Manager: Dave Roberts

The 2019 Dodgers were the winningest team of the recent Dodgers almost-dynasty. The Dodgers have won the NL West every season since 2013, but in that same span of time, they have lost 3 NLDS, 2 NLCS, and 2 World Series – a fact that hurts all the more when both of their World Series losses were to the 2017 Astros and 2018 Red Sox, great teams both now tainted by cheating scandals. Over the offseason, the Dodgers added Mookie Betts and David Price in the biggest trade of the offseason, adding to a roster headlined by ace Clayton Kershaw and young superstar Cody Bellinger. When the 2020 season finally gets underway, Dodgers will be satisfied by nothing short of a World Series trophy.

Featured Games

Carpenter’s Complete Game Leads Cardinals to Opening Day Victory
3/19/2020 - 1927 New York Yankees @ 2004 St. Louis Cardinals

The 2004 St. Louis Cardinals started the season on the right foot, knocking off the 1927 New York Yankees 8-5. St. Louis starter Chris Carpenter gave up 5 runs on 7 hits, but struck out 9 batters on his way to a complete game victory.

Carpenter got off to a rocky start, surrendering a two-out, two-run double to Yankees designated hitter Bob Meusel in the first inning. The Cardinals got on the board in the bottom half of the inning, keeping the came close before tagging Yankees righty Waite Hoyt for four runs in the fourth inning. Cards third baseman Scott Rolen contributed an RBI triple, and rookie catcher Yadier Molina went 2-for-4 with 3 RBI. Meusel would account for four of the Yankees’ runs, adding a two-run homer in the sixth inning.

Yankees first baseman Lou Gehrig drove in a run on a fielder’s choice in the eighth, but Carpenter was able to milk a double play out of Babe Ruth to get out of the inning. With closer Jason Isringhausen warming up in the pen, Cardinals manager Tony La Russa chose to stick with his ace, and Carpenter delivered, closing out the game with a quick ninth inning.

Player of the Game: Chris Carpenter - W (1-0) 9 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 9 K

McGregor Blanks Montreal
3/21/2020 - 1994 Montreal Expos @ 1979 Baltimore Orioles

The 1979 Baltimore Orioles defeated the 1994 Montreal Expos 5-0 today, behind Scott McGregor’s four-hit shutout.

The Expos put together their only threat in the first inning. Singles from Mike Lansing and Larry Walker put runners on first and third with one out, before Wil Cordero grounded into a double play. After that, it was smooth sailing for McGregor, who only surrendered two more singles the rest of the game and didn’t allow a runner to even reach second base.

With two outs in the ninth, Larry Walker appeared to threaten the shutout with a deep fly ball to left field, but it fell just short of the wall and into the glove of Gary Roenicke to close out the game.

Following the last out, McGregor appeared to celebrate Roenicke’s catch little too boisterously for the tastes of Montreal manager Felipe Alou, who could be seen scolding the famously outspoken left-hander as the clubs left the field. Baltimore manager Earl Weaver then intervened with some choice words for his counterpart.

The Expos skipper would not comment on the exchange, but at the Orioles press conference, McGregor confirmed it was about the celebration.

“He basically told me I was being a lousy winner,” McGregor said.

“And I told him he was being a lousy winner,” Weaver added.

Player of the Game: Scott McGregor - SHO W (1-0), 9 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 K

Bellinger Leads Dodgers over Boston in Slugfest
3/27/2020 - 2019 Los Angeles Dodgers @ 2018 Boston Red Sox

In the Dodgers’ 13-11 victory over the Red Sox, Cody Bellinger did most of the heavy lifting.

Bellinger hit a two-run homer off of David Price in the first inning, but the Red Sox came back, scoring 7 runs off of Dodgers starter Hyun-Jin Ryu and chasing him in the fourth inning.

The Red Sox led 7-2 entering the sixth inning, but it quickly unraveled for Price, who gave up an RBI double to outfielder Joc Pederson before leaving the game with the bases loaded for righty Steven Wright. Bellinger crushed Wright’s fourth pitch – a 2-1 fastball – and deposited it into Fenway Park’s batter’s eye for a grand slam.

Boston went right to work breaking the 7-7 tie in the bottom of the inning, taking an 11-7 lead on a Brock Holt RBI single followed by a 3-run homer from Mitch Moreland, off of Dodgers reliever Julio Urias.

The Dodgers continued to tag the Red Sox pen, scoring another run in each of the seventh and eighth innings – including an RBI triple from Bellinger.

The Red Sox turned to closer Craig Kimbrel with a 11-9 lead in the ninth for the save. After retiring the first batter, Kimbrel ran into trouble. Two walks and an infield single loaded the bases, and Kimbrel walked Justin Turner and Cody Bellinger to blow the save. Manager Alex Cora turned to Hector Velasquez, who provided no relief, walking Max Muncy and Cory Seager to run the score to 13-11. Velasquez escaped the inning with a flyout to Mookie Betts, who cut down Bellinger tagging up from third. Kenley Jansen held on in the bottom of the inning for the victory.

Player of the Game: Cody Bellinger - 3-for-5, 2 HR, 8 RBI

Other Happenings

In his second start of the year, George Pipgras of the 1927 Yankees threw a no-hitter!



League Leaders

Batting:



Pitching:



Standings

The ’70 Orioles and ’84 Tigers are off to the hottest starts, but the ’16 Cubs and ’79 Orioles are struggling to get rolling.



Up Next: National Conference - Division A highlight!

[progen]

Excellent idea! Will be following for sure!

[JD396]

National Conference - Division A Spotlight

I had a little bit of a delay... the hard drive in my primary computer decided to take a dump the other day. Fortunately, my save survived, and my ten-year-old tank of a laptop can still run OOTP just fine for now!

1946 Boston Red Sox (104-50)
Result: Lost World Series, 4-3 to St. Louis Cardinals
Top Player: Ted Williams (10.6 WAR)
Manager: Joe Cronin

The 1946 Red Sox were one of the best teams not to win a World Series, losing a close Game 7, giving up the winning run to the Cardinals in a play known as the “Mad Dash”. This was the Red Sox first appearance in the World Series since winning in 1918, and would not appear in another World Series until 1967. Ted Williams, back after missing three seasons due to his service as a pilot in the Marine Corps – didn’t take much time to reacclimate himself to the major leagues, and easily won the MVP award that year. The overall strength of the roster was obvious, as several of his teammates trailed him in the voting – Bobby Doerr (3rd), Johnny Pesky (4th), Dave Ferriss (7th), Dom DiMaggio (9th), among others.

1978 New York Yankees (100-63)
Result: Won World Series, 4-2 over Los Angeles Dodgers
Top Player: Ron Guidry (9.6 WAR)
Manager: Billy Martin, Dick Howser, Bob Lemon

Another era, another Yankees dynasty. The Yankees hadn’t won a World Series since 1962, and they hadn’t won a pennant since 1964. [crocodile tears] In the meantime, the Yankees were purchased by one George Steinbrenner, who went to work putting together another contender. After losing to the Big Red Machine in 1976, Steinbrenner made use of the advent of free agency and the end of the reserve clause era. He brought in Reggie Jackson on a $2.96m contract, who would earn the moniker “Mr. October” pounding home runs, propelling the Yankees to a victory in the 1977 series. The team also provided a non-trivial amount of drama, particularly between Steinbrenner, Jackson, and Billy Martin. It famously came to a head at Fenway in 1977, but in 1978 Steinbrenner and Martin reached the end of the road, and Steinbrenner swapped Martin for Bob Lemon. Despite the drama, the Yankees and Red Sox came down to a tiebreaking Game 163 – famous for Bucky F’ing Dent’s home run, before going on to beat Tommy Lasorda’s Dodgers for the second year in a row.

1988 Oakland Athletics (104-58)
Result: Lost World Series, 4-1 to Los Angeles Dodgers
Top Player: Jose Canseco (7.3 bWAR)
Manager: Tony La Russa

The A’s went to three consecutive World Series from 1988-90. They lost two of them, and in the other there was an earthquake. 1988 was the highest win total for this generation of A’s, led by Dave Stewart in the rotation and the “Bash Brothers”, Jose Canseco and Mark McGwire in the lineup. In 1989, the A’s would acquire Rickey Henderson on their way to the 1989 World Series title. Kirk Gibson's home run off of A’s closer Dennis Eckersley in the 1988 series remains one of the most iconic moments in World Series history.

1998 Atlanta Braves (106-56)
Result: Lost NLCS, 4-2 to San Diego Padres
Top Player: Andruw Jones (7.4 bWAR)
Manager: Bobby Cox

Although the Braves won the 1995 World Series over the Indians, their best regular season of the era was 1998, winning a franchise-record 106 games. The Braves were the winningest team of the 1990s, and won a run of 14 out of 15 division titles (including 11 straight from 1995-2005). They always had a strong lineup, and had the Hall of Fame trio of Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz together on the pitching staff for a decade. It just doesn’t feel like one solo World Series victory does this team justice – and 1998 is emblematic of that. They seemed destined for a rematch of their 1996 series with the Yankees, but that would have to wait until 1999, as they fell to Tony Gwynn and the Padres in the NLCS.

2019 Houston Astros (107-55)
Result: Lost World Series, 4-3 to Washington Nationals
Top Player: Alex Bregman (9.1 bWAR)
Manager: A.J. Hinch

Just a few short years ago, the Astros were Major League Baseball’s doormat. After several years of mediocrity following the end of the “Killer B” era, the Astros took a turn for the suck and lost 416 games from 2011-2014, raising allegations of “tanking”. That was scarcely their only controversy – there were other things like the Brady Aiken signing and hacked internal front office notes. It was all 100% pure-as-the-wind-driven-snow controversy-free smooth sailing from there, though. In 2017, they won 101 games and claimed the franchise’s first World Series championship. They were a game better in 2018, but fell to the Red Sox. In 2019, they were better than ever, winning 107 games, and were a clear favorite to win the World Series – falling just a few innings short to the Nationals, in a bizarre series in which the visiting team won every game (sending over 300,000 total fans in attendance home disappointed). However, the Astros’ cheating scandal that kicked off shortly after the 2019 season ended dominated baseball news all through the winter into spring training. To date, the casualties include the jobs of GM Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch, as well the managerial jobs of then-bench coach Alex Cora and then-player Carlos Beltran. Fair or not, it also cost essentially anyone else associated with the 2017 Astros their reputation. If/when the 2020 season gets going, the season will be a tour of shame for everyone else, and a quest for redemption for Astros and their still talented, still dangerous roster.

Featured Games

Multi-HR Game for White in 8-6 Win
3/30/2020 - 2019 Houston Astros (4-7) @ 1978 New York Yankees (7-3)

Roy White made an impact in the 1978 Yankees' 8-6 Win over the 2019 Astros. White, who is a two-time All-Star, belted a pair of 3-run homers off of Astros starter Justin Verlander (1-2). A solo home run from Reggie Jackson and an RBI double from Willie Randolph made for a total of 8 earned runs credited to Verlander in an off-outing for the Astros ace.

Yankees starter Ed Figueroa (2-0) was saddled with six runs over 8+ innings, but a crooked 8th inning belied a much stronger start. Figueroa took a no-hitter into the sixth inning, broken up by catcher Max Stassi with a single, and a shutout into the seventh, broken up with a home run by Yordan Alvarez. Entering the 8th inning, Figueroa held a comfortable 8-1 lead, having surrendered only 5 hits and a walk on 92 pitches. Following a home run off the bat of Astros catcher Max Stassi, the Astros loaded the bases for Alex Bregman. Bregman then crushed the first pitch he saw, a 440-foot moonshot to right-center. Yankees closer Goose Gossage then took over the mound and claimed his 4th save of the season.

Player of the Game: Roy White - 3-for-4, 2 HR (2), 6 RBI

Rolen Leads Cardinals to .500
3/31/2020 - 2004 St. Louis Cardinals @ 1988 Oakland Athletics

2004 Cardinals third baseman Scott Rolen went 4-for-4 and batted in 6 to defeat the 1988 A's and pull to 6-6 on the season.

Rolen went to work early on A's starter Storm Davis (1-2), with a two-run double in the first inning. The Cards never really looked back. In the third inning, Rolen cranked a three-run homer down the left field line, and Reggie Sanders followed with a solo shot of his own to run the score to 6-0. An RBI single in the third made it 6 RBI for the day.

Rolen's run support was more than enough for Cards starter Jason Marquis (1-1), who threw seven innings allowing only 1 run on 6 hits. Right-hander Cal Eldred took over with a clean eighth inning, but ran into trouble in the ninth, loading the bases with two outs and allowing three to score, on a wild pitch and two singles from Dave Henderson and Jose Canseco. For the final out, with the bases still loaded La Russa turned to lefty Steve Kline to retire Dave Parker and claim the 8-4 victory.

After the game, managers Tony La Russa of the Cardinals and Tony La Russa of the A's were unavailable for comment.

Player of the Game: Scott Rolen - 4-for-4, 2B, HR (1), 6 RBI

Boston Starts April Strong After Rough End to March
4/1/2020 - 1955 Brooklyn Dodgers @ 1946 Boston Red Sox

The 1946 Red Sox followed up Tuesday night's disastrous 28-6 beatdown with a solid, albeit less one-sided, 8-4 victory over the 1955 Dodgers at Fenway last night. It was a team effort for the Red Sox lineup - Ted Williams and Rudy York each hit their third home run of the season, and Dom DiMaggio batted in three. Every hitter in the Sox lineup except catcher Hal Wagner collected a hit, and every hitter, including Wagner, either scored or batted in a run.

The Red Sox bullpen was mostly given a needed respite following Tuesday's blowout. Starter Mickey Harris (1-0) surrendered 4 runs in 7 innings. The Dodgers' four runs came on three home runs - a pair of solo shots by catcher Roy Campanella (5) and a 2-run homer by second baseman Jim Gilliam (1). Lefty Earl Johnson came in to pick up a 2-inning save.

Player of the Game: Dom DiMaggio - 2-for-4, 3 RBI

Other Happenings

Keith Hernandez + Coke =



AC Player of the Week: J.D. Martinez, 2018 Red Sox



NC Player of the Week: Andres Galarraga, 1998 Braves



League Leaders

Batting Leaders




Pitching Leaders




Standings

Four of the divisions are led by Yankees teams, and another one is 1.5 games back. However, Mickey Mantle and his '56 Yankees aren't firing on all cylinders yet.



Up Next: American Conference - Division B highlight!

[progen]

Nice concept. I'll be following!