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Old 03-06-2019, 03:30 PM   #1
Cobra Mgr
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College basketball thoughts (before Selection Sunday edition)

The first automatic bids are about to be handed out. It's going to be interesting to see how much NET affects the committee's selections & seeding.........

.......Conference tournaments are going to be huge this year. If you are a fan of a bubble team, you are going to want to pay close attention to the "one bid" conf tourneys. That's because of Wofford, Buffalo & the Pac12. Those teams & Washington are assured of at large bids. If they don't win their tourney, that means a team not expected to get a bid takes a spot away from a bubble team. So if your team is teetering on the brink, you are fans of the Terriers, Bulls & Huskies this week........

..........How far the Pac12 has fallen is baffling. Oregon has the 2nd highest NET in the Pac12 right now @ #64. To illustrate how bad that is, 11 other conferences have @ least 2 teams ranked that higher. That includes, outside the Power 6, the AAC (5), AtlSun (2), the MAC (2), MtnWest (2), Ohio Valley (2), So Con (3) & West Coast (2). It's a mystery how this league got so bad..........

.........Notice 2 mid-major leagues not mentioned above? What happened to the Missouri Valley & Atlantic 10? Those 2 used to have some of the best basketball outside of the power conferences. VCU leads the Atl 10 @ #36. Davidson & Dayton are in the 70's. Last yr's surprise Loyola-Ch & Drake are 1-2 in the MVC & are right behind each other in the NET @ #127 & 128. VCU not winning the Atl10's final game might be the only hope these 2 conferences have to be multi-bid leagues.........

........The Southern Conference has to be the most pleasant surprise this season. Don't let Wofford's dominance of their league fool you. Furman, UNC-G & E.Tenn St. are ranked 66th or higher. Furman won @ Villanova and had a single digit deficit w/9 to go @ SEC co-leader LSU. The Spartans also lost @ LSU, by just 6. And they had the halftime lead @ Rupp vs Kentucky. This conference is poised to be a major bracket buster this season..............

.........Speaking of potential bracket busters, pay attention to the leaders of the Atlantic Sun, Liberty & Lipscomb. Liberty went 1-4 vs power conference schools. They never lost by double digits & beat UCLA in Pauley by 15. The Bisons went on the road & gave TCU their only non-conference loss. They also fell short @ Louisville by just 4. Their NET is probably too low to merit an at large selection. So they are going to have to win their tourney on March 10th. Regardless who wins, neither is likely to be overwhelmed w/dancing in front of the cameras...........

..........I keep hearing commentators saying dook will get a pass regarding seeding because of Zion's injury. Are they going to do the same for Va Tech, who lost their all time assists leader for over half the conference schedule? Four of their 7 losses came in that period. How about Michigan State. who has 2 of their top 3 scorers out? Kansas? Zags? Just because Zion is a dynamic player doesn't mean dook has earned the right to not be questioned. I'm sick of that type of garbage in football & a dang sure don't want it in basketball. You earn what you earn based on your established season record. Not on your established reputation. Injuries are part of the game. The ones that overcome deserve to be rewarded. Those that succumb deserve to be empty handed............

...........While on the topic of dook, RJ Barrett is clearly better than Zion WIlliamson. Zion is flashy. Barrett is just good. The rest of the devils have seen their game tumble w/o Zion's presence. Barrett has skyrocketed. He still gets his. Don't let ESPN's overbearing hype fool you. I understand why an NBA team would want to pick Zion first because of his box office draw. Zion may be the star of your team, but Barrett would be the BEST on your team...........

The best contenders for #1 seeds........Gonzaga...Their weakness will be a 3 month period without playing any serious competition to prepare them for the NCAA's.....Virginia...No major concerns. But can Tony Bennett's system do it when it matters most?........dook...Health and little consistent scoring outside of RJ/Zion......UNC...no offensive or defensive presence in the paint....Kentucky...displaying what everyone thought they would be when the season started, but their inexperience crops up from time to time.......Tennessee...I had my doubts until they reached the meat of their schedule the last couple of weeks. They are learning on the run what it means to play as the hunted instead of the hunter...Michigan/Mich St.......these 2 have an outside shot if they run the table while a couple of the former have disaterous finishes. People forget Michigan was last season;s runner up. The Spartans have too many health concerns to be thought of as more than a dark horse for a title. But I guess you can't count out an Izzo led team.........
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Old 03-06-2019, 05:00 PM   #2
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Speaking of injuries, Kentucky’s center missed the game the other day against Tennessee. I would guess that whoever wins the conference tournament between the 2 will get a number 1 seed.
I also think Dook needs to reestablish themselves by winning their conference tournament if they want a number 1 seed.
I think Gonzaga is the only lock for a #1 seed but I think they may be the weakest #1 seed.
It should be interesting.
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Old 03-06-2019, 07:14 PM   #3
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I don't see why the committee would even need to give Duke a pass on the injuries...They are clearly deserving of a 1-seed as it currently stands. They have four losses, to Gonzaga (1-seed), UNC (probable 2-seed), VA Tech (4-ish seed), and Syracuse (solid tourney team). They have beaten Kentucky (by 34), Texas Tech, Virginia (twice), Florida State, and Louisville. That's a 1-seed.

I suppose if they lose to UNC AND lose to say, Louisville in their first tournament game, then maybe they'll slide to the 2-line. But I don't see who would be deserving of getting in over them, except perhaps UNC.
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Old 03-07-2019, 10:58 AM   #4
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I mostly watch the ACC and A-10 because their what's on. Which is great for me because the ACC has the best teams and VCU is back to relevance.

UVA is locked in and healthy this year. People don't remember that last season two guys got injured late (Huff and Hunter) and the starting guards were very banged up. That's not the case this year. Duke and UNC are easily the next best teams and all three in the Final Four is not only likely but justified.

VCU is back under one of Shaka Smart's top assistants and playing the real brand of Havoc! that brought the school to the final four. They will have a nice run, likely to the Sweet 16.

Other than those schools, no one else has impressed me as having anything special. Mostly I've seen the top teams, like over-rated Tennessee, lose in a blow out, or struggle to beat ordinary teams.
An interesting side note is seeing top notch mid-major coaches get their chance and not quite make it at big schools. Anthony Grant and Shaka Smart got famous at VCU, and Buzz Williams at Marquette. Grant got fired at Alabama (he did a decent job, but at a school with unrealistic expectations based on football). Now he is doing well at Dayton. Smart followed Grant at VCU and now is ordinary at Texas. I don't expect him to be there much longer. Buzz Lighyear is at a high point at VT, however his team is showing the weakness of his style--down to five players going 40 minutes every night. And seeing 14 point leads fade against Florida State. That will happen two more times and their season will be over.

Basically these guys know how to recruit high energy, hard nosed kids with above average skills. That produces great results at mid-majors. But hustle and determination do not equate to wins in the ACC or SEC where the teams keep rotating better players every night until your team is worn down. Hustle and grit don't play as well with elite level egos, and that is what causes these coaches to not make the next level. Smart is seeing this at Texas where his team bears no resemblance to the VCU Havoc! team he had. Buzz has a nice bunch of 6-6 hustlers, but get crushed inside by the top quality bigs in the ACC.

Whichever mid-major schools get Shaka and Buzz next will be as fortunate as Dayton is with Grant.
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Old 03-07-2019, 02:57 PM   #5
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The women's tournament should be really good this year, with no clear favorite
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Old 03-07-2019, 06:21 PM   #6
Cobra Mgr
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pilight View Post
The women's tournament should be really good this year, with no clear favorite
True. I usually don't care about the women's tourney until the finals. Unless UNC is playing or good. But this year is the 1st time I can remember when it looked like there were more than 4 teams that could reach the Final 4.
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Old 03-11-2019, 02:14 AM   #7
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Is Iowa a tourney team amongst their complete late season collapse?

It seems to be a Fran Mccaffery special to tank the season late

Also...how does anyone put Virginia in the final four after getting railed on it last year?
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Old 03-11-2019, 09:14 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by madjac74 View Post
Is Iowa a tourney team amongst their complete late season collapse?

It seems to be a Fran Mccaffery special to tank the season late

Also...how does anyone put Virginia in the final four after getting railed on it last year?
Read my post to be enlightened.
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Old 03-11-2019, 01:14 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by madjac74 View Post
Is Iowa a tourney team amongst their complete late season collapse?

It seems to be a Fran Mccaffery special to tank the season late

Also...how does anyone put Virginia in the final four after getting railed on it last year?
As for UVa, past performance in the tourney should have nothing to do with their merits this season. Take away dook, they are unbeaten, earned the #1 seed in a league that has 2 other top 5 teams & have more "Quad 1" wins than anyone.

As for Iowa, most bracketologists still have them a 7-9 seed. Eleven & 12 is the danger zone. So they should be fine.
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Old 03-12-2019, 09:55 PM   #10
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St.Mary's just beat the Zags for the West Coast Conf auto bid. That takes an @ large bid away from a bubble team. And might knock the Zags from a #1 seed.
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Old 03-13-2019, 04:39 PM   #11
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The only thing that really gets to me is this resume thing when teams have a losing record in their conference. I think a team should be DQ unless they win the conference tournament. Indiana in the tourney come on!
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Old 03-13-2019, 05:45 PM   #12
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The only thing that really gets to me is this resume thing when teams have a losing record in their conference. I think a team should be DQ unless they win the conference tournament. Indiana in the tourney come on!
I hesitate to 100% agree with you. I think you have to look @ what they did OOC, how tough their conference is, and any other extenuating circumstances.

As for Indy, I don't think you have to worry about them getting an @ large bid. They are going to have to win the Big T1e4n tourney in order to get in the NCAA's. The OOC has a win over erratic L'ville, a sinking fast Marquette, and a blow out home loss to dook. The Luckeyes are tied with them on the bubble & beat them in their only meeting. And I'm not aware of huge injury problems.

Minnesota, TCU, Texas & St.John's are the other sub .500 teams on the bubble. The Gophers OOC is unimpressive & there is an inexcusable 27 pt loss @ Illinois.

Texas had a strong OOC. but are only 16-15 overall. They suspended their top scorer & went 1-4 in his absence. So the committee might still give them a break despite the mediocre record.

I will find TCU personally interesting. They lost just once vs a pitiful OOC. Have lost 6 of their last 8. But they have also been caught up in the adidas scandal. And I wonder how the selection committee will handle those teams. Will they look for excuse to keep them out to avoid a potentially embarrassing situation of having to vacate wins?

St.John's has lost 4 of their last 5. But I remember a ref's inadvertent whistle directly costing them a win @ Seton Hall and knocking them out of the rankings. That would have put them @ .500. So again, you wonder if that will factor in the selection.

Of course, a bunch of these teams wouldn't be considered if the NCAA didn't expand the teams invited to 68.
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Old 03-13-2019, 06:25 PM   #13
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I hesitate to 100% agree with you. I think you have to look @ what they did OOC, how tough their conference is, and any other extenuating circumstances.

As for Indy, I don't think you have to worry about them getting an @ large bid. They are going to have to win the Big T1e4n tourney in order to get in the NCAA's. The OOC has a win over erratic L'ville, a sinking fast Marquette, and a blow out home loss to dook. The Luckeyes are tied with them on the bubble & beat them in their only meeting. And I'm not aware of huge injury problems.

Minnesota, TCU, Texas & St.John's are the other sub .500 teams on the bubble. The Gophers OOC is unimpressive & there is an inexcusable 27 pt loss @ Illinois.

Texas had a strong OOC. but are only 16-15 overall. They suspended their top scorer & went 1-4 in his absence. So the committee might still give them a break despite the mediocre record.

I will find TCU personally interesting. They lost just once vs a pitiful OOC. Have lost 6 of their last 8. But they have also been caught up in the adidas scandal. And I wonder how the selection committee will handle those teams. Will they look for excuse to keep them out to avoid a potentially embarrassing situation of having to vacate wins?

St.John's has lost 4 of their last 5. But I remember a ref's inadvertent whistle directly costing them a win @ Seton Hall and knocking them out of the rankings. That would have put them @ .500. So again, you wonder if that will factor in the selection.

Of course, a bunch of these teams wouldn't be considered if the NCAA didn't expand the teams invited to 68.
I could write a dissertation on the whole rankings and it favors top conferences, but is not consistent. The big 12 is a great example. The last few years they have been considered the best conference but it is largely by beating each other. They play in the tourney and get knocked out quickly, and next year best conference again.
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Old 03-13-2019, 08:22 PM   #14
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I could write a dissertation on the whole rankings and it favors top conferences, but is not consistent. The big 12 is a great example. The last few years they have been considered the best conference but it is largely by beating each other. They play in the tourney and get knocked out quickly, and next year best conference again.
Who has said the 12ish is the best? Only ppl I've heard say that work for the 12ish.
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Old 03-14-2019, 05:45 AM   #15
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I am just throwing this out there but Indiana had 2 starters injured most of the season (Hunter/Davis). Davis started playing again about 3 weeks ago (Indiana record since then has been pretty good). Should injuries and teams recent play be a consideration for seeding/selection is always debatable.
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Old 03-14-2019, 08:53 PM   #16
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Who has said the 12ish is the best? Only ppl I've heard say that work for the 12ish.
Not this year but the last few years it has been the big 12.
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Old 03-14-2019, 09:18 PM   #17
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...=.c27c1d1c9dda

I want to see more mid majors in the tourney. If you play in a power conference you have the ability to have the circular affect of beating the better times which in turn helps your resume and then when someone beats you it helps theirs.

I would love a qualifier such as a 500 or better record, or max bids for a conference.

I love college basketball because it is competitive from beginning of the season until the end. Have 350 teams compete for 68 spots is awesome but would much enjoy a reduction of the 10th member in a conference with a losing record going to the tourney because they beat 3,6, and 7 in the conference with getting 2 chances.
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Old 03-15-2019, 07:43 AM   #18
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Not this year but the last few years it has been the big 12.
No it hasn't. Anyone that claimed the 12ish was the best when they let Kansas dominate them every year for a decade and a half was a numbskull. You can't be the nation's best when you can't compete w/your league's best.
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Old 03-15-2019, 12:09 PM   #19
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There was talk of Tex Tech being a dark horse for a 2 seed. Not anymore. In fact, they opened the door to possibly falling to a 4 if a team like FSU or K-St makes a run.

I think Texas & TCU are out. Hard to put in a .500 ovr Longhorns squad. And TCU's 12-1 OOC record vs weak opponents isn't enough to offset a 8-12 record vs the 12ish.

St.John's didn't help their cause either. Losing to Marquette isn't bad. Losing by 30+ is. Being a team from NYC might influence the committee to still include them. But IDK......Seton Hall & Xavier did what they were supposed to do by eliminating fellow bubble members G'twn & Creighton.

The Big T1e4n is virtually all about gaining a higher seed. Nebraska is still looking to play their way in after faltering in the later half of the year. But those who will be invited is probably set after the Buckeyes beat Indiana.

I think Arizona St's strong finish has taken them off the bubble. Beating Oregon tonight will further cement their position. If the Ducks win, it could put them firmly in the discussion.

Bama & Florida have huge opportunities to make their cases today. Gators play the reg season champ, LSU. The Tide take on the conf bully, Kentucky.

If you are a fan of a bubble team, you are a fan of Buffalo, VCU plus want Nevada & Ut St to meet in the Mtn West finals. Those teams surviving means more spots for your school to squeeze in.
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Old 03-16-2019, 06:46 AM   #20
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Houston because only has 2 losses and if wins its conference Championship should be considered for one line.
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