FHM Database 2 - Electric Aliu (now with MORE data!)

[Ciccarelli]

Well, a new patch is upon us and, curious to see if any of the problems that ailed the last "installment" have been fixed (looks like a few of them have, from what I see), I'm going to do another one of these things.

If anyone has a request in what to look for, just post it and I'll get on it.

[Ciccarelli]

Simmed through the first few seasons (up to June 2018) and here’s a few things I’ve noticed so far:

- There are still a few 18- and 19- year old North Americans in the AHL, but it’s not anywhere near as bad as it used to be. Just a handful of players under the age of 20, and most of them are Europeans (which, I believe, is allowed). The main thing I’m noticing is that all of the North Americans that are in the AHL don’t have their rights assigned to a CHL team (which means that they should be getting “recruited” to college teams, but aren’t able to get signed to them, for whatever reason).

- The other thing I’m noticing in the AHL is that there are a ton of 35-and-older Europeans in the AHL. They’re being signed by the parent club on one-way contracts, so it’s not the AHL teams that are bringing them in. I just find it weird that the AI would invest in somebody like Niko Kapanen, Jaarko Ruutu or Riku Hahl and either let them rot on an AHL club or get limited ice duty at the NHL level. This is where rookie camp and training camp would come in handy, but that’s just me. Still weird to me that so many Europeans playing in Europe would just flock over to the NHL in droves in their 30’s.

- In terms of the CHL Import Draft, the AI in the QMJHL is signing quality foreign players, but they are few and far between (I believe I only counted six or seven foreign players throughout the entire league. The AI in the WHL has far more players, but The AI in the CHL tends to be drafting and signing Europeans with extremely limited talent (I didn’t see a foreign player in the WHL with a potential over 6. Many of those players had potentials in the 3’s and a few in the 4’s; i.e. people who have no excuse being in the CHL). The foreign players in the OHL were a bit better than in the WHL (more players with potential in the 4’s and some 5’s and a 6 here and there, including one player with a potential of 7. I’m still seeing a ton of players with potentials in the 3’s, however), but still nobody that would make an outstanding impact at a higher level (but you could say they could contribute at the CHL level, with proper development). I don’t know if the AI isn’t signing good Europeans from the CHL import draft because they’re going to be drafted by an NHL or KHL team, but it would make more sense for a CHL team to draft those players since there’s a chance they could get loaned to the team for a season or two for development, if they’re signed by an NHL club. But that’s just a wild theory.

- In the KHL, I’m seeing a lot of 18-year-old Russian players rotting on the bench (although they’ve spent a year playing in the VHL, so it’s not a total loss). I’m also seeing a large amount of 20-23 year old Canadian players in the KHL as well (including Jonathan Drouin, but he’s a restricted free agent for Tampa Bay). I’m also seeing some 18-20 year old North American players (not as many as before) that are getting the patented “sign the player, then release them” technique (if it’s as common as it was in the past is still to be seen).

- I’m still seeing way too many former NHLers in the Ligue Magnus and British Leagues (I’m seeing Paul Gaustad, Tim Connolly and Niko Dimitrakos in the Ligue Magnus and Devan Dubnyk, Jason Chimera, Martin Biron and Brandon Prust in the Elite Ice Hockey League). As I think I’ve mentioned, I’m not sure if it’s due to the reputation of the leagues being too high or the fact that the Swiss League (which takes in a lot of former NHL players) isn’t active or some other matter entirely. It’s still weird.

Compared to the last patch, from what I can see, this is a big improvement. There are still some glaring flaws and there is much work to be done, but it feels like there’s a bit more “life” in the game, with the HNN (although it’s really primitive right now, I feel it’s got potential to be a good asset for the game, with enough creativitiy). I’m also seeing fewer players doing better in their 40’s (still need to look at more examples, though), including our old friend Ville Peltonen being relegated to a fourth liner four years into the game.

[pens66]

Originally Posted by Ciccarelli

- There are still a few 18- and 19- year old North Americans in the AHL, but it’s not anywhere near as bad as it used to be. Just a handful of players under the age of 20, and most of them are Europeans (which, I believe, is allowed). The main thing I’m noticing is that all of the North Americans that are in the AHL don’t have their rights assigned to a CHL team (which means that they should be getting “recruited” to college teams, but aren’t able to get signed to them, for whatever reason).

Just wanted to mention that it is - if I remember that correctly - theoretically possible for North Americans to play in the AHL if they are under 20 years old. There is only an agreement between the CHL leagues and the NHL that if a CHL team owns the rights to a player, he can't play in the AHL. If no CHL team has the rights for a player (i. e. he was released), he should be able to play. These players don't necessarily have to be recruited by a college team.

[Ciccarelli]

Originally Posted by pens66

Just wanted to mention that it is - if I remember that correctly - theoretically possible for North Americans to play in the AHL if they are under 20 years old. There is only an agreement between the CHL leagues and the NHL that if a CHL team owns the rights to a player, he can't play in the AHL. If no CHL team has the rights for a player (i. e. he was released), he should be able to play. These players don't necessarily have to be recruited by a college team.

I see. From what it looks like, these players are from leagues like the BCHL, NAHL and other college prep leagues (normally, players that are looking to play for college teams do get drafted into the CHL (on the off-chance that they change their minds and want to play junior hockey), they just usually never sign.

I guess I'm talking about it because I haven't seen it for myself. Perhaps it's too rare for me to actually talk about.

[YZG]

Originally Posted by pens66

Just wanted to mention that it is - if I remember that correctly - theoretically possible for North Americans to play in the AHL if they are under 20 years old.

That's correct: FAQ | The American Hockey League

[Alessandro]

Originally Posted by Ciccarelli

- In the KHL, I’m seeing a lot of 18-year-old Russian players rotting on the bench (although they’ve spent a year playing in the VHL, so it’s not a total loss). I’m also seeing a large amount of 20-23 year old Canadian players in the KHL as well (including Jonathan Drouin, but he’s a restricted free agent for Tampa Bay). I’m also seeing some 18-20 year old North American players (not as many as before) that are getting the patented “sign the player, then release them” technique (if it’s as common as it was in the past is still to be seen).

Hey Dino, your threads are always great. This problem is known to the devs and hopefully it will be fixed

[TEHLUDDITE]

Originally Posted by pens66

Just wanted to mention that it is - if I remember that correctly - theoretically possible for North Americans to play in the AHL if they are under 20 years old. There is only an agreement between the CHL leagues and the NHL that if a CHL team owns the rights to a player, he can't play in the AHL. If no CHL team has the rights for a player (i. e. he was released), he should be able to play. These players don't necessarily have to be recruited by a college team.

There is also a very rare exemption for junior-eligible CHL players to be assigned to the minor pro IF they have completed 4 seasons of major junior. This is at the discretion of the NHL club that holds the player's rights of course. The only example that comes to mind is Jason Spezza who played in the AHL as a 19-year old. In order to be eligible for this exemption, the player would have to play a full CHL season as a 15-year old. I'm not certain how it works in the QMJHL or WHL, but in the OHL a player can't be drafted to play as a 15 year-old unless he applies for and is granted "exceptional player status" by the league prior to the Priority Draft. Most of these exceptional players don't last 4 years in the league (John Tavares as an example) because they are so advanced that the NHL plucks them from the vine as 18-year olds.

[JeffR]

Originally Posted by TEHLUDDITE

There is also a very rare exemption for junior-eligible CHL players to be assigned to the minor pro IF they have completed 4 seasons of major junior. This is at the discretion of the NHL club that holds the player's rights of course. The only example that comes to mind is Jason Spezza who played in the AHL as a 19-year old. In order to be eligible for this exemption, the player would have to play a full CHL season as a 15-year old. I'm not certain how it works in the QMJHL or WHL, but in the OHL a player can't be drafted to play as a 15 year-old unless he applies for and is granted "exceptional player status" by the league prior to the Priority Draft. Most of these exceptional players don't last 4 years in the league (John Tavares as an example) because they are so advanced that the NHL plucks them from the vine as 18-year olds.

The WHL allows five regular-season and unlimited playoff games in the 15-year-old season. The Q doesn't allow it at all, and has no exceptional player rule. The WHL and OHL rules allowing limited 15-year-old play aren't modeled in the game yet, so the 4-year rule will never apply in-game, since all three major junior leagues start at 16.

[TEHLUDDITE]

Originally Posted by JeffR

The WHL allows five regular-season and unlimited playoff games in the 15-year-old season. The Q doesn't allow it at all, and has no exceptional player rule. The WHL and OHL rules allowing limited 15-year-old play aren't modeled in the game yet, so the 4-year rule will never apply in-game, since all three major junior leagues start at 16.

Thanks for the info and update Jeff.

I'm encouraged that there are plans to model this in the game eventually. This is a pretty minor detail relative to the rest of the hockey world and it really highlights the commitment you have to taking FHM to the highest level possible. Good on you.

[Ciccarelli]

NOTE: I reduced the screen resolution in the game, so the images should be far less annoying on the browser than they were. You can thank me later.

- I don’t know if it’s just me, but it feels like the move from June 30 to July 1 is ridiculously slow (to the point where I thought it had crashed on several instances). Granted, it’s not a crash, but it seems utterly ridiculous since my computer is only a year old (and has 8 GB dual-core memory, which allows OOTP to run pretty fast, even with a large world database).

- I’m still seeing a LOT of newly signed 18- and 19-year-old prospects being signed and then promptly released by the AI in the game. I’m not seeing as much of the patented “sign and release on the same day” syndrome that plagued the last version (although I still see it from time to time), but the more disturbing trend has been to send them down to the AHL… and release them a few days to several weeks later (possibly to make room for those 35-and-over players. They’re the wave of the future, ya know? ). In one example, a fifth-round draft pick by Tampa Bay in the 2021 NHL Draft named Ryan Shore (LW, Waywayseecappo Wolverines):





Obviously a great player worthy of being signed to an entry-level contract a mere month after the draft. He then gets sent down to Syracuse for further seasoning, but then is suddenly released three days later (?). Now he is looking for more work at either the amateur or professional level.





Guys like this seem to be the rule in the game, not the exception. In an extremely disturbing trend, here are the free agents in the game as of August 11, 2021, sorted by player potential:





Notice the gigantic elephant in the room? The player with the 9.5 potential (Elton Wallace) was the fourth overall pick in the NHL Draft, but spent the last year playing ten games in the KHL (Severstal Cherepovets), but no team in the database holds his player rights. This seems to be a problem not with players in the CHL (those players look like they just go back to their original club once they are released from the NHL), but with players who are 20 and over (rights no longer held by a CHL club) and players whose rights were not selected in a CHL draft (i.e. players who would be, in most circumstances, college-bound or in a European league [if European]). Once again, this is kind of a gamebreaker. Especially if I were playing, what’s the point of drafting if all the AI is going to do is hastily sign and then release their prospects as quickly as they signed them? All one would have to do is sit and wait until a player like Elton Wallace is cut, then sign him on the cheap (whether he develops, or not, is another story).

- In terms of player regression, I guess I had spoken too soon about the resilience of Ville Peltonen:





He has retired this past offseason, however, so we will not see Mr. Peltonen in his half-centenarian form. And yes, it still looks like players retire in August, vanish from the historical database and then return on July 1 once they officially announce their retirement. A moment of silence to remember our cult hero:





- The 55-year-old from the last soak, Andrei Subbotin, is still going strong at age 48, however.





The fact that father time has done minimal damage to Subbotin’s attributes isn’t the problem (actually, it’s kinda neat since I was expecting his physical attributes to have already fallen off of a cliff). The problem is that he has been signed to a two-way NHL contract, for the first time in his career, at the age of 48.

It just doesn’t make sense for a Russian, who has no experience of playing hockey in the Western Hemisphere, to sign for what should be less (considering it’s a two-way contract) to get third- or fourth-line duty in the minor leagues. It looks to me that the player AI, when seeing a contract, is looking at the NHL contract amount (more money than they would make in Europe) than they do at looking at their situation (are they actually going to play in the NHL? Will I have to take less if I play in the minors? Will I be able to adapt to the smaller North American ice surfaces?). Honestly, once a European hits the age of 30 (an age where they should be established players), it should be significantly harder for an NHL or North American team to sign them. Obviously, there are exceptions (like Ville Peltonen, Petr Tenkrat, Jaroslav Hlinka and, more recently, Roman Cervenka and Raphael Diaz), but there’s one major trend for those players: They played in the NHL and most weren’t on two-way contracts (except for Diaz, but he hasn’t seen the AHL yet).

- Looking at Sidney Crosby, here are his original ratings:





And here are his attributes eight years into the game:





Several things jump at me off the bat:

- The physical attributes don’t seem to be declining as fast as they were. He has become a mediocre skater in his mid 30’s (understandable), but isn’t to the point where he is just embarrassing himself on the ice.

- I find it interesting that Crosby has also become softer with age as well (noting the significant decreases to fighting, aggression and bravery).

- His ability to get open, pass and handle the puck have decreased somewhat (an improvement since puckhandling never changed in the previous version).

- It still looks like certain attributes aren’t declining (and I’ve noticed this with other players as well), specifically shooting accuracy, shooting range, offensive read, faceoffs, positioning, shot blocking, pokechecking and defensive read. Some of these attributes I question whether or not they should decline (such as offensive and defensive read, but since I see that his hockey sense has declined by two, shouldn’t these attributes be penalized?), but since I’ve noticed that even though Crosby’s bravery has fallen significantly, shouldn’t positioning, shot blocking and pokechecking drop (since, in theory, he should be more reluctant to get hurt, thus take fewer risks with his body, such as get into position in front of the net (where he’ll risk injury) or block shots (risk injury). As for shooting, it looks like those attributes still don’t decline (I don’t think these should be falling off the face of the map, but these should have a higher chance of declining as well, especially since Crosby’s ability to handle the puck has dropped, which might mean that he won’t be able to shoot the puck as far or as accurately as he once did?).

- I'm also wondering why his number has changed from 87 to 78 (I saw this in the other soak as well) when he hasn't changed teams. Maybe had a change of heart and is going by the Imperal method of dates (7.8.87?).

- I’ve also noticed that there are signing deadlines in the unsigned prospects page (good), but the dates are wrong (all are showing august 31 as the deadline to sign these players):





- I also wanted to mention that Kenny Agostino’s rights are no longer controlled by the Penguins. He was part of the trade that brought Jarome Iginla to the Pens last season, so his rights should be held by the Calgary Flames (just nitpicking. I don’t mind, since he has the chance to be solid).

That’s all I’ve got for now. I’m going to sim a few more years and then follow the 2023 Draft once again (but not participate, since it looks like a lot of my players are going to be released by the AI).

[Ciccarelli]

Okay, I have finished simming to 2023 and wanted to check in on players in the past post. In the process, I've found two things that are in dire need of being fixed (one far more significant than the other, and may be one of the causes of the dreaded "sign and release drafted prospects" problem):

- In the NCAA leagues, I'm seeing some players who are playing seven years in the league (as in they get "recruited" at age 18 and go to age 25). If a player is playing every season at the collegiate level (and I believe it's the same in the CIS), the maximum number of seasons an athlete can play is four (the only way a player can play six or seven seasons at the collegiate level is if they get redshirted and sit out one year then get an injury exemption (two if they are in the league for seven years).





It's very minor in the scope of things, but it looks like they put the maximum age at 25 (which is correct, to an extent. There are players that start their freshman years in college at the age of 20 in the NCAA), without putting the maximum number of years in the league at 4 (Although I'm not sure if that's even possible in the engine or if it needs to be added in).

- The big problem I saw is with trying to get an update with the ageless wonder Andrei Subbotin. He's currently playing for the Manchester Monarchs of the AHL (under contract to the Los Angeles Kings), but I noticed that he hasn't been playing in any games since the 2018/19 season (when he was 45).

My curiosity piqued, I decide to look at Manchester's roster:





For whatever reason, he's not there. But then, I take a look at their reserve roster:





And there is our ageless friend Andrei Subbotin, rotting on an AHL reserve roster, of all places, along with a score of other players (Honestly, I didn't even know the AHL had reserve rosters. I know most of them have agreements with clubs in the ECHL and CHL to send a few contracted players down to them). Sadly, it's not just Manchester that has a bloated reserve roster. Here are several other AHL reserve rosters that can field an entire team... and then some.











That got me to thinking: What about the AHL clubs with a minor league team to send their excess players to? At first glance, it looks like they don't have the glut of excess players that the AHL teams with reserve rosters have. That leads me to the case of 41-year-old Deryk Engelland, currently assigned to the Utah Grizzlies of the ECHL, who somehow hasn't played a game since the 2018/19 season (at age 36 with Los Angeles and Manchester).





I look on their roster to see if he's still there, and, surprisingly, he's nowhere to be found.





However, a look at the contracted players for Anaheim states that, yes, Deryk Engelland is a member of the Anaheim ducks organization.





But then... whadda you know? Utah ALSO has a reserve list and our friend, that was assumed MIA, is on this list.





Honestly, I'm shocked I even stumbled onto this problem, but I'm glad I did, since I feel I've found the reason why the AI keeps signing and then cutting prospects they've just drafted: The AI is hoarding players ad nauseum, and then cutting the prospects once they reach the contract limit and want to sign a "better" player for the team (which, I believe, they are judging by current ability and, as the prospects have the lowest current ability, they are the ones that are cut). This, in turn, results in the AI keeping a bunch of 30-35 and older players as "roster filler" to simply rot on reserve rosters (I'm seeing a lot of names on here, like Dainus Zubrus, Mike Komisarek, Steve Downie, Oscar Moller, Mason Raymond, David Booth and Johnny Boychuk). A lot of teams are at or very near the contract limit, with little regard as to whether or not these players will get playing time or even fit in their system, so it looks like it's an issue with the AI actually "judging" if their teams (especially the NHL teams) have enough talent to fill their minor league system (instead of seeing a 40-year-old free agent and going "OOH SHINY" and instantly signing them to a two-way NHL contract).

I'm going to do an offseason and observe a few teams and how they operate with roster management to see if this "theory" is truly the case. Otherwise... yikes.

[dave1927p]

great stuff, dino. Keep it up

[thepete]

Excellent stuff.

[Big T]

Really good investigation and presentation. This is the type of feedback the devs need. Good job..

[Big T]

Really good investigation and presentation. This is the type of feedback the devs need. Good job..

[Mordrehl]

Originally Posted by Ciccarelli

Honestly, I'm shocked I even stumbled onto this problem, but I'm glad I did, since I feel I've found the reason why the AI keeps signing and then cutting prospects they've just drafted: The AI is hoarding players ad nauseum, and then cutting the prospects once they reach the contract limit and want to sign a "better" player for the team (which, I believe, they are judging by current ability and, as the prospects have the lowest current ability, they are the ones that are cut). This, in turn, results in the AI keeping a bunch of 30-35 and older players as "roster filler" to simply rot on reserve rosters (I'm seeing a lot of names on here, like Dainus Zubrus, Mike Komisarek, Steve Downie, Oscar Moller, Mason Raymond, David Booth and Johnny Boychuk). A lot of teams are at or very near the contract limit, with little regard as to whether or not these players will get playing time or even fit in their system, so it looks like it's an issue with the AI actually "judging" if their teams (especially the NHL teams) have enough talent to fill their minor league system (instead of seeing a 40-year-old free agent and going "OOH SHINY" and instantly signing them to a two-way NHL contract).

I'm going to do an offseason and observe a few teams and how they operate with roster management to see if this "theory" is truly the case. Otherwise... yikes.

I really do believe the AI values Current Rating far too much when it comes to assessing it's player pool. I've seen a 9.5 potential player get traded for a 7.5 + 7th round choice. That's a top 5 prospect traded for a 2nd/3rd round player and a 7th round choice :P



The tweak should be :

1) Who to keep on the protected list .. .ie Potential and Current both play major if not equal factors
2) Who to keep on the Active Roster ... Current much more than Potential
3) Who to send to the AHL ... same as 2
4) Who to send from the AHL to ECHL ... same as 2
5) Who to return to Junior ... same as 2

[Ciccarelli]

What I’m going to do for this post is simply observe and post general data about the draft. Don’t know if it’ll mean anything, but it might make sense, in the long run:

FHM DRAFT DISTRIBUTION:
- 1 Belarussian (In VHL)
- 106 Canadians (Majority of them in Major Junior Leagues, with about 15% of them in non-major junior leagues. One player playing in the NCAA)
- 9 Czechs (all but one on Extraliga U-20 Squads. The lone exception played -with the Barrie Colts in the OHL)
- 1 Estonian (On Estonian U18 squad)
- 14 Finns (Many of them on regional U18 squads, with the rest playing in the Mestis Junior League)
- 8 Germans (All playing in the German Minor Leagues)
- 1 Hungarian (On Hungarian U18 squad)
- 1 Kazakh (In VHL)
- 25 Russians (About half playing for KHL squads [mostly on the bench] with the rest playing in VHL or lower)
- 7 Slovaks (Two playing in the Extraliga, the rest on Extraliga U-20 squads)
- 20 Swedes (Three playing in the QMJHL, three playing for Swedish U-20 teams and the rest playing for regional U-18 squads)
- 23 Americans (Three playing in major junior, 12 playing in NAHL or USHL, one in college, and the rest playing in generic filler leagues (US High School and Western US Junior B)

- European Juniors (U18 Squads) – 18
- European Pro Leagues (And Affiliates/U20 Squads) - 54
- CHL (WHL, OHL, QMJHL) - 91
- US Leagues (High School, USHL and NAHL) – 19
- Non-CHL Canadian Leagues (BCHL, AJHL, etc.) – 16
- College Teams – 2

2013 NHL DRAFT DISTRIBUTION:

- 2 Austrians
- 96 Canadians
- 4 Czechs
- 2 Danes
- 11 Finns
- 1 Latvian
- 1 Norwegian
- 8 Russians
- 2 Slovaks
- 23 Swedes
- 4 Swiss
- 57 Americans

- European Juniors (U18 Squads) – 1
- European Pro Leagues (And Affiliates/U20 Squads) - 46
- CHL (WHL, OHL, QMJHL) - 102
- US Leagues (High School, USHL and NAHL) – 45
- Non-CHL Canadian Leagues (BCHL, AJHL, etc.) – 13
- College Teams – 6

Some observations:

- There is nobody over the age of eighteen been drafted. This is, most likely, because all the players that have any sort of promise of being NHL-caliber are being gobbled up during their draft year. This is, even though, I’ve seen examples of players who are nowhere near ready to be drafted being selected because their “true” potential is high (and a guy who has no points in 26 games as a forward in the QMJHL is considered to have NHL potential?).

- From what I’ve seen, the college level in this game is home to marginal players and players not worthy of being scouted at the NHL level, when it’s quite the contrary. The college ranks are home to plenty of draftable talent (including undrafted free agents, which the game lacks considerably. Just ask Danny DeKeyser, Andrej Sustr, Tyler Bozak, Eric Hartzell, Teddy Purcell or any other “high-profile” college athlete who developed into an NHL prospect when in college).

- The nation distribution is a bit off, specifically with Russians and Americans. Too many Russians are being drafted while too few Americans are being developed and drafted (Although that has less with Russia having far less talent being developed than it does with NHL teams being scared to draft Russians due to the KHL). The fact that Americans aren’t well represented in the draft seems to point to a lack of generating quality talent for the country (even though this year could be a fluke). There are quality players being generated, just not enough (and that’s not getting into the question of do they actually develop in the game).

- There are too many Europeans miring in generic U18 squads instead of developing in the junior teams of European leagues, or moving to the major junior ranks to adjust to the North American style of play. This is a problem specifically for Finnish and Swedish players (Russians, Czechs and Germans advance from the generic leagues quickly). It’s not that everyone is just staying at the level (a few do move on to a European team’s U20 squad or the QMJHL), but it’s not enough for them to truly “develop”.

As for the players actually being drafted, I’m going to show the “scouted” ability and potential along with their “real” potential, courtesy of the “edit player” feature:

1. Yury Morozov, LD/RD, Yugra Khanty-Mansiysk (KHL) – Ability 8.0 / Potential 12.5 (Offensive Potential: 775 / Defensive Potential: 818)

2. Jonathan Berggren, LD, Western Sweden U18 – Ability 5.5 / Potential 9.5 (Offensive Potential: 825 / Defensive Potential: 791)

3. Theodore McCoy, G, Belleville Bulls (OHL) – Ability 5.0 / Potential 10.0 (Goaltending Potential: 836)

4. Denis Vasilyev, LD, Yugra Khanty-Mansiysk (KHL) – Ability 6.0 / Potential 10.5 (Offensive Potential: 746 / Defensive Potential: 784)

5. Mika Stenroos, LW, Eastern Finland U18 – Ability 4.0 / Potential 9.5 (Offensive Potential: 822/ Defensive Potential: 760)

6. Jimmy Bush, RD, Regina Pats (WHL) – Ability 4.5 / Potential 8.0 (Offensive Potential: 686 / Defensive Potential: 754)

7. Mathieu Renaud, LD, Acadie-Bathurst Titan (QMJHL) – Ability 4.5 / Potential 7.0 (Offensive Potential: 688 / Defensive Potential: 752)

8. Tyler Robitaille, C, Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL) – Ability 4.5 / Potential 7.0 (Offensive Potential: 741 / Defensive Potential: 671)

9. Roy Pruitt, RW, U.S. National Development Team (USHL) – Ability 4.0 / Potential 7.5 (Offensive Potential: 746 / Defensive Potential: 707)

10. Andrey Tyulyapkin, RW, Metallurg Novokuznetsk (KHL) – Ability 4.5 / Potential 9.5 (Offensive Potential: 747 / Defensive Potential: 710)

11. Jeffrey Haith, RD, US High School – Ability 5.0 / Potential 9.5 (Offensive Potential: 658 / Defensive Potential: 713)

12. Max Adams, LD, Saskatoon Blades (WHL) – Ability 4.0 / Potential 9.5 (Offensive Potential: 677 / Defensive Potential: 705)

13. Zack Paletta, LW, Red Deer Rebels (WHL) – Ability 4.0 / Potential 7.5 (Offensive Potential: 725 / Defensive Potential: 725)

14. Alfred Forsmark, LD, Southern Sweden U18 – Ability 3.5 / Potential 7.5 (Offensive Potential: 689 / Defensive Potential: 721)

15. Geoff Wensink, LD, Kamloops Blazers (WHL) – Ability 5.5 / Potential 9.5 (Offensive Potential: 670 / Defensive Potential: 741)

16. Luca Ryan, C, Penticton Vees (BCHL) – Ability 4.0 / Potential 8.5 (Offensive Potential: 743 / Defensive Potential: 702)

17. Mario Schmitt, C, EHC Regensburg (Oberliga) – Ability 3.0 / Potential 6.5 (Offensive Potential: 706 / Defensive Potential: 675)

18. Jesse Ventura, C, Spokane Chiefs (WHL) – Ability 4.5 / Potential 7.5 (Offensive Potential: 686 / Defensive Potential: 609)

19. Kennet Englund, C, Western Sweden U18 – Ability 4.5 / Potential 7.0 (Offensive Potential: 707 / Defensive Potential: 670)

20. Andrey Yashin, LW, SKA St. Petersburg (KHL) – Ability 4.0 / Potential 8.5 (Offensive Potential: 679 / Defensive Potential: 639)

21. Andrey Pencheshny, C, CSKA Moscow (KHL) – Ability 3.5 / Potential 8.0 (Offensive Potential: 725 / Defensive Potential: 682)

22. Kevin Kelly, RW, Baie-Comeau Drakkar (QMJHL) – Ability 5.5 / Potential 5.5 (Offensive Potential: 671 / Defensive Potential: 699)

23. Daniil Ignashin, G, Traktor Chelyabinsk (KHL) – Ability 3.0 / Potential 8.5 (Goaltending Potential: 764)

24. Mirco Schumann, LW, EC Klostersee (Oberliga) – Ability 3.0 / Potential 8.0 (Offensive Potential: 714 / Defensive Potential: 713)

25. Axel Henningsson, C, Val-D’or Foreurs (QMJHL) – Ability 5.0 / Potential 8.5 (Offensive Potential: 684 / Defensive Potential: 635)

26. Jordan Besler, C, Carleton Place Canadians (CCHL) – Ability 4.0 / Potential 9.0 (Offensive Potential: 708 / Defensive Potential: 679)

27. August Hulten, RD, Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL) – Ability 5.0 / Potential 7.5 (Offensive Potential: 663 / Defensive Potential: 691)

28. Simon-Claude Thiverge, LD/RD, Charlottetown Islanders (QMJHL) – Ability 4.0 / Potential 8.0 (Offensive Potential: 657 / Defensive Potential: 696)

29. Darian Bradford, LD, Owen Sound Attack (OHL) – Ability 5.5 / Potential 7.0 (Offensive Potential: 643 / Defensive Potential: 677)

30. Jacob Martel, LD, Charlottetown Islanders (QMJHL) – Ability 4.0 / Potential 6.5 (Offensive Potential: 646 / Defensive Potential: 699)

A few more observations:

- Is it just me or is there a lack of talent being generated for the draft? There are several elite players at the top of the draft (that’s what I’m assuming the 800 potential symbolizes), but after the top ten, things seem to drop off very quickly. It’s as if someone drafting in the later portion of the first round is going to be lucky to be drafting someone who can fill in as a third line forward or third pairing defenseman (which is, what I’m guessing, is what the potential less than 700 symbolizes). In the second round, there was exactly one player who had a potential in anything over 700 (713 offensive potential), and that was the 31st overall pick in the draft. What that tells me is that nobody in the second round will become anything more than depth players, at best, at the NHL level. In real life, this is quite the contrary (Go ask Patrice Bergeron if being a second round pick stopped him from being a core contributor to the Bruins). In the third round, the cutoff seems to be 675 potential (with only a few players hitting it for one category or slightly going about it). In the seventh round, one would be lucky to get a player who gets a callup to the NHL here and there (the best player I saw had an offensive potential of 667, but a defensive potential of 613, limiting his upside at the NHL level). Perhaps this was a weak draft, but it still doesn’t bode well for the future of the game.

This shows to me two things: There isn’t enough quality talent being generated by the game and the AI is way too pinpoint in drafting quality players (as in the AI is focusing too much on their actual potential, unseen to the human player, than they are at actually drafting due to the potential their scouts “perceive” them of having).

- There were only three goalies selected in the first three rounds of the draft (with two being selected in the first round) and five goalies selected in the first four. There were 18 goalies selected in the draft, but the majority of those players were selected in the later rounds of the draft. What that tells me, since the AI seems pretty pinpoint in selecting players with good potential early in the draft, that the game is generating too few goaltenders that have the potential to start at the NHL level (and that’s a big if, considering whether or not those goalies actually develop).

- The draft is too top-heavy, at first glance. Not set in stone, since I’m not sure how the players will actually develop, but it’s not a good sign for long-term playability (what’s the use of scouting a guy like Luca Ryan, who gets 36 points in 53 games in the BCHL [which isn’t impressive for that level] if he’s going to get snatched up in the middle of the first round?). It looks like the AI judges actual potential too heavily in the draft instead of making an assumption of future potential based on player stats and if they have improved on those stats in the past few years, quality of the league the player is playing in, whether or not their size and style of play will be able to adapt to the NHL (ex. Luc Robitaille and those alleged skating “deficiencies,” Theo Fleury and his diminutive stature, and players like Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk playing in leagues with minimal exposure and reputation.)

And now to see if the AI over-judging current ability is the reason why prospects are signed and then cut…

[Alessandro]

Originally Posted by Ciccarelli

- The nation distribution is a bit off, specifically with Russians and Americans. Too many Russians are being drafted while too few Americans are being developed and drafted (Although that has less with Russia having far less talent being developed than it does with NHL teams being scared to draft Russians due to the KHL).

Great post Dino, as usual. However here, we must admit that we aren't in an easy situation. The KHL talent is there (I mean IRL), just that teams walk away from it somehow. I think it's close to impossible to replicate the "Russian factor" in a videogame.

[Mordrehl]

Originally Posted by Alessandro

Great post Dino, as usual. However here, we must admit that we aren't in an easy situation. The KHL talent is there (I mean IRL), just that teams walk away from it somehow. I think it's close to impossible to replicate the "Russian factor" in a videogame.

EHM2007 tied to some degree ... players would have a preference for playing at home over playing overseas in the NHL. You take this idea, model it so some regions (Sweden/Finland) have more of an affinity to play elsewhere than other areas (Russia), combine in a check for how much the local league pays in comparison to the NHL (ie, why play in the NHL for $850K/year if my home league will pay me $600). Then you would need to adapt an algorithm that combines players scouted potential with players willingness to play in the nhl into a "desirability factor" ... have the AI draft off that rather than what seems to be happening (drafting off the hidden off/def potentials).

[Ciccarelli]

Originally Posted by Alessandro

Great post Dino, as usual. However here, we must admit that we aren't in an easy situation. The KHL talent is there (I mean IRL), just that teams walk away from it somehow. I think it's close to impossible to replicate the "Russian factor" in a videogame.

I can definitely understand that. I think it has more to do with signability and the off-chance that these players will want to come to America. Even during the 1980's, NHL teams spent draft picks on Soviet players (on the off-chance that Russia would allow them to play in the league, which turned out to happen), but they gambled with later round picks instead of their premium draft positions (choosing to be "safe" instead of throwing away a third-round pick on somebody who would never sign with an NHL club).

So do I think it can be replicated? Somewhat (although I'm not a programmer, so I can't decipher what kind of code or algorithms the game will need to stop NHL teams from heavily investing in Russians, KHL teams heavily investing in North Americans, etc.).