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Old 03-19-2018, 04:32 PM   #41
DB930
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I became a bit of an NPB fan last year--specifically the Hanshin Tigers--and a couple of things about the Tigers' roster jumped out at me.

- Ryutaro Umeno. Even with scouting turned off he's a 1.5-star player, and a good enough hitter that the AI slots him into the #7 spot ahead of Yusuke O(h)yama. Umeno is a .201 lifetime hitter (.557 career OPS), so to project .225 with 17 HRs in a major-league environment (his numbers when I opened the editor) might be... optimistic.

- Takumi Akiyama was solidly the #2 starter last season. Granted, it was a "breakout year" and something he'd never done before, but he's only 26, and having his current ratings so low that he can't even crack the ni-gun (minor league) team's rotation is something I think should be looked at.

- Also, Randy Messenger might be 36, but he's still one of the best half-dozen pitchers in the NPB; his ratings might be a little low, but not to the point where I'd complain (much) about it. And Kosuke Baba was the team's #1 pick last year and still hasn't thrown a professional pitch yet, so it's impossible to know whether his Current ratings are too high right now or not, but I was definitely surprised to see him in the #1 spot and Messenger #2.
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Old 03-19-2018, 04:35 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by DB930 View Post
I became a bit of an NPB fan last year--specifically the Hanshin Tigers--and a couple of things about the Tigers' roster jumped out at me.

- Ryutaro Umeno. Even with scouting turned off he's a 1.5-star player, and a good enough hitter that the AI slots him into the #7 spot ahead of Yusuke O(h)yama. Umeno is a .201 lifetime hitter (.557 career OPS), so to project .225 with 17 HRs in a major-league environment (his numbers when I opened the editor) might be... optimistic.

- Takumi Akiyama was solidly the #2 starter last season. Granted, it was a "breakout year" and something he'd never done before, but he's only 26, and having his current ratings so low that he can't even crack the ni-gun (minor league) team's rotation is something I think should be looked at.

- Also, Randy Messenger might be 36, but he's still one of the best half-dozen pitchers in the NPB; his ratings might be a little low, but not to the point where I'd complain (much) about it. And Kosuke Baba was the team's #1 pick last year and still hasn't thrown a professional pitch yet, so it's impossible to know whether his Current ratings are too high right now or not, but I was definitely surprised to see him in the #1 spot and Messenger #2.
NPB still needs a lot of work at the moment It's fairly high on my to-do list.
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Old 03-19-2018, 04:36 PM   #43
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Just got home from work, cant wait to get it downloaded!!
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Old 03-19-2018, 04:38 PM   #44
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The league totals being short would be a League Total modifier issue as you note. The difference between the starters and RP's comes down to individual ratings though most likely and that might be ZIPS/player ratings related. I can probably fix that but it'll take some time.
I imagine it would.

I have sort of tried to reverse engineer the correspondence between Stuff/Control ratings and strikeout and walk rates. I'm sort of curious what you're using to generate the ratings from ZiPS projections. What I noticed in my model was that a "50 Stuff" for a starting pitcher resulted in a 19.0% strikeout rate, on average, but a "50 Stuff" for a reliever resulted in a 23.0% strikeout rate, on average. I don't think this is a problem, since an average reliever does strikeout more batters than an average starting pitcher, but I kind of wonder if that's accounted for in your ratings generation scheme? It would explain the discrepancy, possibly.

For example, Cody Allen has an 80 Stuff in the 2018 rosters. In my model, that predicts him for a K/9 around 12.90, despite his ZiPS being for 11.22.

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Old 03-19-2018, 04:39 PM   #45
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I imagine it would.

I have sort of tried to reverse engineer the correspondence between Stuff/Control ratings and strikeout and walk rates. I'm sort of curious what you're using to generate the ratings from ZiPS projections. What I noticed in my model was that a "50 Stuff" for a starting pitcher resulted in a 19.0% strikeout rate, on average, but a "50 Stuff" for a reliever resulted in a 23.0% strikeout rate, on average. I don't think this is a problem, since an average reliever does strikeout more batters than an average starting pitcher, but I kind of wonder if that's accounted for in your ratings generation scheme? It would explain the discrepancy, possibly.
I don't even know honestly. Markus imports the projections and the game converts them to ratings them automatically. They're spot on for batters and pretty much never need to be tweaked, but they're always a bit off for pitchers, in different ways each year
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Old 03-19-2018, 04:39 PM   #46
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Some things with the Pittsburgh Pirates:

Tyler Gaffney is retired in OOTP, but he has returned to the Pirates to resume his baseball career after being released by the Patriots.

Daniel Nava had back surgery, and is out 10-12 weeks.

Mitchell Tolman suspended 50 games
Montana DuRapau suspended 50 games

Pirates signed Connor MacDonald, considering making him a pitcher.
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Old 03-19-2018, 04:42 PM   #47
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I don't even know honestly. Markus imports the projections and the game converts them to ratings them automatically. They're spot on for batters and pretty much never need to be tweaked, but they're always a bit off for pitchers, in different ways each year
Yea the batter ratings always look great, overall. I hope Markus has a chance to chime in later. I still feel bad for straining at a gnat, but I figure it's worth looking into for the realism =).
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Old 03-19-2018, 04:43 PM   #48
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Yea the batter ratings always look great, overall. I hope Markus has a chance to chime in later. I still feel bad for straining at a gnat, but I figure it's worth looking into for the realism =).
I think the issue might have to do with the fact that we calculate GB% differently than other places do and our higher GB% changes the movement ratings (and thus the stuff as well) and throws everything off a bit.
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Old 03-19-2018, 04:45 PM   #49
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Jon Singleton

Is showing on the HOU 40 man roster...he hasn't been for some time now. Cleared waivers in 2017. Still owed on contract from years ago, which looks correct.

He's Fresno only, no Spring '18 AJ's.
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Old 03-19-2018, 04:46 PM   #50
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Is showing on the HOU 40 man roster...he hasn't been for some time now. Cleared waivers in 2017. Still owed on contract from years ago, which looks correct.

He's Fresno only, no Spring '18 AJ's.
The ai is always going to put a guy with sort of contract on the 40-man roster. There's nothing we can do to prevent that, unfortunately.
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Old 03-19-2018, 04:48 PM   #51
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Just throwing more data out there, since I'm collecting it:

In my sim, 28 relievers (> 50 IP) finished with a K/9 of 12 or above. In real-life 2017, just 15 relievers matched those numbers.
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Old 03-19-2018, 04:55 PM   #52
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I think the issue might have to do with the fact that we calculate GB% differently than other places do and our higher GB% changes the movement ratings (and thus the stuff as well) and throws everything off a bit.
You would definitely know better than me on this.

I would be really curious to know what the ZiPS-to-ratings conversion is doing to split on starters-vs-relievers. Honestly, I think that could explain the bulk of it. If the ratings generation is treating Stuff values as "equivalent" between starters and relievers, then it's going to give starters too low of stuff and relievers too high.
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Old 03-19-2018, 04:55 PM   #53
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Some Phillies related issues: Will Middlebrooks broke his leg in spring training, no injury is listed for him in the game. Tommy Joseph was claimed by the Rangers today. Hoby Milner is a side-armer.
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Old 03-19-2018, 04:57 PM   #54
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The ai is always going to put a guy with sort of contract on the 40-man roster. There's nothing we can do to prevent that, unfortunately.
Thanks, I figured as much. I'm not seeing a way to edit his status manually. Am I missing something?
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Old 03-19-2018, 05:06 PM   #55
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More a question than an issue: Are ratings generally lower this year (MLB and minor league)? Also, are prospect ratings complete, because it seems like a lot of them for many teams are lower than I expected? This is mainly with regard to potential, as the current ability for most players seems fine. However, if ratings are lower in general this year then that would explain the prospect thing. Maybe I'm just imagining all this, but I wanted to ask to be sure. Thanks!

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Old 03-19-2018, 05:13 PM   #56
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Dominican League/Astros

They are missing their 2nd DSL team, only one is listed
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Old 03-19-2018, 05:25 PM   #57
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Adam Jones

Jones current contract expires after the 2018 season, but in game it expires after the 2019 season.
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Old 03-19-2018, 05:26 PM   #58
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More a question than an issue: Are ratings generally lower this year (MLB and minor league)? Also, are prospect ratings complete, because it seems like a lot of them for many teams are lower than I expected? This is mainly with regard to potential, as the current ability for most players seems fine. However, if ratings are lower in general this year then that would explain the prospect thing. Maybe I'm just imagining all this, but I wanted to ask to be sure. Thanks!
Yes to both questions. Good eye!

We had some ratings inflation creep into the set in previous years which caused some issues in longer term sims and just wasn't all that accurate. So we've done a lot of work to fix that this year.

Now the potential ratings (when using relative ratings by 5's) should correlate pretty well with what you see from places like MLB Pipeline, fangraphs etc.

So you might need to adjust your expectations on what ratings are good and bad now but things should overall be better and more accurate and realistic now than in previous years.
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Old 03-19-2018, 05:26 PM   #59
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They are missing their 2nd DSL team, only one is listed
Pretty sure they dropped their 2nd DSL team for 2018.
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Old 03-19-2018, 05:27 PM   #60
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Thanks, I figured as much. I'm not seeing a way to edit his status manually. Am I missing something?
If you turn on commish mode and act as the Astros you can dfa and waive him.
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