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Old 08-01-2015, 04:41 PM   #21
Lukas Berger
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There was nothing condescending in my post, which is unfortunately more than can be said for yours.

Among those who do test and work on the game, we haven't yet seen this ourselves.

We're not perfect in the least. Maybe we missed it, that's absolutely, 100% possible. If so, we'd really like to know about it.

If that's the case, you need to find a way to help us see what we're missing. Maybe we're wrong, but if so you need to prove it, not simply be more aggressive about it.

You've been asked to provide data and proof, yet you provided only a few isolated cases, and to keep telling others to look for themselves. Well, we have looked, and we don't see what you're seeing. You've mentioned a few cases, but not more than real life provides.

So what does real life provide? Let's look at that, to set a needed baseline to examine your claim.

Of the 100 best rookie seasons by hitters from 1970 through 2010 (so we have enough data to see if guys actually fell off of not, which we don't have with more recent debuts) between 18-23 (23 being the oldest age you mentioned) according to fangraphs, by my count 25 were by guys who did fall off significantly, within a few years of their rookie seasons. Also 4 of the top 10 did. That's not counting Fred Lynn, since though he fell off, he was still incredibly good.

Your count may be slightly different, but we can probably conservatively put the number around 25%. For example you mention Bob Horner as a guy who fell off early, but I actually counted him as one who didn't, thus one of the 75% "good guys". My count was fairly quick though, so it may be a bit off.

So these guys do exist in real life, as you've admitted. Thus, the question is not whether they also exist in OOTP, but whether there are significantly greater percentages of these guys in OOTP than in real life?

So with the default aging settings in a modern MLB environment, is the percentage of batters in OOTP that first make MLB between 18-23 and put up rookie seasons above 2.2 WAR, or so, and them fall off very badly within a few years significantly greater than 25%? If so, how much greater? Those are the questions you have to answer in order to get further with this discussion. There are other questions beyond that which would need to be analysed, but that's pretty much the minimum bar for proving there's a potential issue here. Answer those and some other folks will likely pick up the ball on further analysis.

Now, the ball's in your court if you want to claim there's an issue here. Saying there's a problem 'because I say there is and here're four random examples' is not providing proof, or even enough persuasion to move the needle.

Markus is always open to changing and fixing the game, but he won't do it based on someone's whim. He requires a great deal of data and a persuasive argument before he makes big changes.

If you want something done about this, you need to find a way to actually document your claims or to at least to give the folks in a position to make changes happen a reason to credit what you're saying enough that we'll want to analyse this ourselves.

That can easily be done, we're always looking at issues with the game and areas it needs improvement, of which there are many, but you haven't done it here so far.

Convince me, or any other OOTP employee or senior beta tester, there's an issue here and this will absolutely get looked at during the development of 17. Keep not doing so and being fairly aggressive toward those who discuss this with you on top of that, and it absolutely won't get looked at.

That's not condescending, that's just the reality of how this works.

Last edited by Lukas Berger; 08-02-2015 at 02:25 AM.
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Old 08-02-2015, 12:33 AM   #22
voxpoptart
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Lukasberger: See, that's an actual argument with data, and a strong one. Until this point in the discussion, the only person providing any data was me, and I was doing the best I could -- so yes, I think some of the other posters were condescending (large hat tip to Olivertheorem, who's disagreed with me while being courteous and helpful). I was just explaining my claims as carefully as I could.

As I've stated more than once, I'm a very slow player who's played less than five full seasons with the current edition (although I've played many times that with old editions of the game), so my asking people to check their own data is my only logical approach. The questions that remain here are:

(1) How does this 25% fall-off rate in real life match OOTP's? It's possible I'm wrong to identify that as the root of the problem. But there's also

(2) How does the development of OOTP's solid 20- and 21-year-olds into Hall of Famers match real life? It feels to me like it's probably too low, remembering that about half of above-average 20-year-olds in real life become HoF-ers, but you have many more OOTP seasons to compare. And what may very well be the largest issue,

(3) How does OOTP's development of good 26-29-year-olds match real life? I explained, in my post before this, that they are (in my league) declining at a rate that's something like 1/4 that of the good 20-23-year-olds. Maybe the problem isn't the decline of the youngsters -- but in that case, it's the extreme consistency of the prime-age players. Which my suggested method of Talent Change was also designed to deal with.

Last edited by voxpoptart; 08-02-2015 at 12:49 AM.
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Old 08-02-2015, 01:16 AM   #23
Lukas Berger
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Quote:
Originally Posted by voxpoptart View Post
Lukasberger: See, that's an actual argument with data, and a strong one. Until this point in the discussion, the only person providing any data was me, and I was doing the best I could -- so yes, I think some of the other posters were condescending (large hat tip to Olivertheorem, who's disagreed with me while being courteous and helpful). I was just explaining my claims as carefully as I could.

As I've stated more than once, I'm a very slow player who's played less than five full seasons with the current edition (although I've played many times that with old editions of the game), so my asking people to check their own data is my only logical approach. The questions that remain here are:

(1) How does this 25% fall-off rate in real life match OOTP's? It's possible I'm wrong to identify that as the root of the problem. But there's also

(2) How does the development of OOTP's solid 20- and 21-year-olds into Hall of Famers match real life? It feels to me like it's probably too low, remembering that about half of above-average 20-year-olds in real life become HoF-ers, but you have many more OOTP seasons to compare. And what may very well be the largest issue,

(3) How does OOTP's development of good 26-29-year-olds match real life? I explained, in my post before this, that they are (in my league) declining at a rate that's something like 1/4 that of the good 20-23-year-olds. Maybe the problem isn't the decline of the youngsters -- but in that case, it's the extreme consistency of the prime-age players. Which my suggested method of Talent Change was also designed to deal with.
Appreciate the response.

Those are actually all very good questions and they're absolutely all worth looking at as well.

You're getting me interested enough here that I may take a stab at running a test league or two and trying to see just how OOTP does in those areas. It probably won't be terribly soon, as there's a lot on my plate, but I think much of this would be very interesting to look into more.
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Old 08-02-2015, 01:26 AM   #24
voxpoptart
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One thing I can do now, which I couldn't do (because I was on vacation) when people started challenging me for data, is to systematically look at how every above-average 20- and 21-year-old rookie in my league's first year has proceeded in the four years since.

Age 20
1B Jamie Bourke. Seems headed for a nice little career, although with no signs of imminent greatness.
2B Tyrus Jardinian. Probably going to be one of the all-time greats.
2B Alberto Quetzalcoatl. As mentioned, his performance and potential were decaying to mere adequacy.
CF Himmi Nguvumali. Also was found decaying to mere adequacy.
RF Devin Egielski. Developing rapidly. Easy to imagine he might make HoF someday.
RF Marshall Trogdon. Steady decline since starring debut, although still useful.

Age 21
C Gilberto Rosete. Hasn't been as good since.
C Ryo Shinoda. All-Star at 21. Only one strong season since.
1B Pierantonio Fosfuri. Solid player, probably improving.
2B Lyman Hedron. Very good player, probably improving.
LF Hoshi Nagata. Completely fell apart.
LF Tom Collins. Completely fell apart.

The small sample size is certainly inconclusive. But that's the full sample I have, as no new 20- and 21-year-old regulars appeared until midway through season four.

If these results match others' data, then it's weighted a bit too strongly towards pessimistic results, and too strongly away from rapid development. Maybe they don't! It's why I'm asking. But they do match my experience with prior versions of the game, so it's why I'd come up with ways to deal with the issue if so.

Last edited by voxpoptart; 08-02-2015 at 01:34 AM.
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Old 08-02-2015, 01:33 AM   #25
Lukas Berger
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Was just re-reading this and I actually provided the wrong link to fangraphs data in my big post. The link I included was for players debuting at 18-22, but I discussed players at 18-23. This is the link for the 18-23 guys fwiw.
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Old 08-02-2015, 01:36 AM   #26
Lukas Berger
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As much as we've discussed the guys who failed, it's remarkable to see the amount of massive successes on that list.

That makes me think one of your other questions may actually be the most important one to answer, namely:

Quote:
Originally Posted by voxpoptart View Post
(2) How does the development of OOTP's solid 20- and 21-year-olds into Hall of Famers match real life? It feels to me like it's probably too low, remembering that about half of above-average 20-year-olds in real life become HoF-ers, but you have many more OOTP seasons to compare.
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Old 08-06-2015, 05:09 PM   #27
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food for thought: If you don't judge and compare results of your ootp fictional league to the real life MLB, your league has much more life and is unique.
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Old 08-06-2015, 11:36 PM   #28
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food for thought: If you don't judge and compare results of your ootp fictional league to the real life MLB, your league has much more life and is unique.
Yes, and my league deviates from real life in various ways that are on purpose and enhance my experience. Because OOTP is customizable.

If your league deviates from real life in ways you did not choose, would not have chosen, and didn't expect, that's very different. And, indeed, OOTP's team works very hard to reduce those incidents! Which is why I brought this up, and why I'm glad that, after a rocky beginning, I've gotten Lukasberger's attention.
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