Who Should Win the 2016 Cy Young Award?

[DocHalladay]

Who should win the 2016 Cy Young Award?

1. Clayton Kershaw
2. Jose Fernandez
3. Other

I'm really interested in your help helping me decide who should win the Cy Young Award. I am in commissioner mode only in my first year (2016), so I do not have a dog in this race. However, i want all of my leagues to have integrity and therefore, i like to make sure the right players win the awards because of performance, and not based on "favorites".

I believe there could be reasons for many players to win the award, and so I come to the community seeking your help!

Really appreciate any input you can provide. Willing to hear your logic, especially if you choose 'other' for another pitcher. Your logic could help convince me!

As it stands, my gut tells me Kershaw is the guy. But I do want to get this right, and my fear is the bias i have knowing how well Kershaw has pitched to this point of his career.

Help a fellow OOTP'er out please!

[Matt Arnold]

I don't see how you can argue for anyone but Fernandez there. Sure, Kershaw had more K's, but very close on FIP and ERA, and Fernandez has tons more wins.

[DocHalladay]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

I don't see how you can argue for anyone but Fernandez there. Sure, Kershaw had more K's, but very close on FIP and ERA, and Fernandez has tons more wins.

Your point of view is valid, Matt. Thanks for weighing in!

It's possible i see the 1.1 BB/9 rate from Kershaw that clouds my judgement. Also, Kershaw's .89 WHIP is impressive!

But Fernandez kicks butt in ERA+. Hell of a season for both. Plus DeGromm, Syndergaard had great seasons as well. Hell of a year for top pitchers in my first season sim.

[Number4]

Derek Jeter Award?

Fernandez by the way - more innings, lower ERA.

[DocHalladay]

Originally Posted by Number4

Derek Jeter Award?

Fernandez by the way - more innings, lower ERA.

Thanks for your input!

As a league MVP award, I wanted to use a more current, relevant former player to represent most valuable player in my league. I intend this league to be a long-term sim (strictly Commissioner, watching it unfold). My next project will be to create a smaller, fictional league that I will GM a team.

Naming the award after a player that embodied the qualities that made him a team captain made sense to me.

[Reed]

It would be interesting to know the teams Wins/loss record in games they DIDN'T pitch. That might have a bearing. Just looking at these stats, I would give a slight nod to Fernandez.

[redranger]

Fernandez. Not really even close


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[Number4]

Wins/Losses don't say much about a pitcher. If you don't have run support, you might toss 9 great innings with one unearned run and still get the loss, conversly 5 innings of 9-run-ball might be enough for the W if your batters knock in 10. Even if you compare the teams overall records, the sample size of any single starters starts is not enough to overcome statistical noise. A good W/L record on a otherwise sucky team might sound impressive, but even the worst MLB team will still win one third of their games and any starter might just be lucky enough to get the starts where the bats where hot, or he'll maybe face lower rotation positioned opposing starters more often than usual, etc.

Compare Wrights W/L records and his ERA:...http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...righst01.shtml

[oriolesmeep]

1. Fernandez - Not really close in my opinion, he's better than Kershaw in all aspects.
2. Kershaw - You were right that these were the big 2.
3. Any of the Mets starters (Syndergaard would be my pick.) - Did the Mets win the WS in this league?

[Matt Arnold]

Originally Posted by Number4

Wins/Losses don't say much about a pitcher. If you don't have run support, you might toss 9 great innings with one unearned run and still get the loss, conversly 5 innings of 9-run-ball might be enough for the W if your batters knock in 10. Even if you compare the teams overall records, the sample size of any single starters starts is not enough to overcome statistical noise. A good W/L record on a otherwise sucky team might sound impressive, but even the worst MLB team will still win one third of their games and any starter might just be lucky enough to get the starts where the bats where hot, or he'll maybe face lower rotation positioned opposing starters more often than usual, etc.

Compare Wrights W/L records and his ERA:...Steven Wright Statistics and History | Baseball-Reference.com

I agree, stats like IP, K, HRA, ERA, FIP, etc... are all more important than wins. But as much of a "team stat" as it is, to me they still count as the tiebreaker.

So in the above, to me, they're different enough that they easily become the tiebreaker between the top 2 arms. If Fernandez and Kershaw had identical records, then I would say you could pretty much flip a coin between them and I wouldn't have a problem with the decision. Heck, even if Fernandez was 19-10 instead of 23-5, I think that would be close enough that you could make arguments for the other guys, and I'd expect that him and Kershaw would be roughly tied in the polls.

If it was Greinke who was 23-5 based on their above stats, I would still give it to the 14-14 Kershaw ahead of him. But Fernandez led in innings, ERA, 2nd in Ks, 2nd in FIP, and 1st in WAR, while also leading by 5 wins? I don't see how there's an argument.

[DocHalladay]

Originally Posted by oriolesmeep

1. Fernandez - Not really close in my opinion, he's better than Kershaw in all aspects.
2. Kershaw - You were right that these were the big 2.
3. Any of the Mets starters (Syndergaard would be my pick.) - Did the Mets win the WS in this league?

The Mets finished with 101 wins in the East, however were ousted by the eventual WS Champs, the Cardinals, in the Division Series.

Syndergaard & deGrom had VERY good season for the Mets, though.

[DocHalladay]

So far, it is a landslide victory for Fernandez in the poll, 11-1 over Kershaw. I was tantalized by that 9.17 K/BB rate that Kershaw put up. But pitching in Dodger stadium has benefits, so the ERA+ is a HUGE pro in Fernandez' favor.

I just love this community! Your thoughts and opinions matter in how it is shaping my league. I really thank you for your time, and most importantly, your responses!

[Number4]

I think Strikeouts are way, way overrated. Sure, an out is an out, and a big swing and miss for the K lets the pitcher look like he's the man.

However, your goal as a pitcher is not to get the most Ks, the lowest walk rate or WHIP, the only goal you have is to allow as few runs as possible.

Popping a guy up is in terms of result the same as a strikeout, yet there is no stat for it. The guy who walks a guy, then induces a double play and gets the third to fly out is just as effective as the guy who strikes out the side.
Fernandez might have had more walks and hits, but his skill at keeping the ball on the ground allowed him to pick off those extra runners with double plays, and give up less extra base hits and homers that allow those runners to score.
That is also why his BABIP is higher - groundballs go more often for singles, however they aren't as dangerous in terms of slugging percentage. If you are an elite pitcher and don't give up many hits to begin with, that is what you want.
Boring but Practical - TV Tropes

[MrWideFrame]

I voted Fernandez but I'm already thinking I should have voted for Kershaw. Kershaw had the more "impressive" season imo. He averaged more IP per start, did a better job limiting baserunners, had an incredible K/BB ratio, and had a more impressive strikeout rate. Fernandez beats him in limiting HR, and slightly in run prevention. A lot closer than most of you are making this out to be. Kershaw would have benefited from three more starts like Fernandez had - not taking anything away from Fernandez he deserves credit for pitching in those three additional games.

[RchW]

There is a critical stat missing and we should see team records. The stat is Run support per start RSG. It can be added easily in the customize drop down. Team records help one understand the context of player performance (see Steve Carlton 1972).

It's not close if one feels certain counting stats matter. Based on overall value both are equal IMO. To separate them one must get to second and third order values which carry less weight (again IMO). I can still count so I'll throw in a counting stat of my own. Kershaw made three less starts but is only 5.2 innings behind Fernandez. That suggests to me Kershaw pitched deeper into games tied or behind than Fernandez. Run support and pitcher game logs a la BR would help determine if this is true.

I'll be contrarian for fun and pick Kershaw because I suspect he pitched for a weaker team. That breaks the tie if true. Having said all that, I wouldn't argue against Fernandez much at all.

Isn't it great we can discuss this as if it really happened.

[Padreman]

The Derek Jeter Award goes to the biggest Bag in baseball

[DocHalladay]

Originally Posted by RchW

There is a critical stat missing and we should see team records. The stat is Run support per start RSG. It can be added easily in the customize drop down. Team records help one understand the context of player performance (see Steve Carlton 1972).

It's not close if one feels certain counting stats matter. Based on overall value both are equal IMO. To separate them one must got to second and third order values which carry less weight (again IMO). I can still count so I'll throw in a counting stat of my own. Kershaw made three less starts but is only 5.2 innings behind Fernandez. That suggests to me Kershaw pitched deeper into games tied or behind than Fernandez. Run support and pitcher game logs a la BR would help determine if this is true.

I'll be contrarian for fun and pick Kershaw because I suspect he pitched for a weaker team. That breaks the tie if true. Having said all that, I wouldn't argue against Fernandez much at all.

Isn't it great we can discuss this as if it really happened.

Thanks for mentioning the RSG stat, RichW. I learned something new today!

Kershaw had 2.78 RSG, while Fernandez recieved 4.20. The Marlins won 86 games in 2016, while the Dodgers won 96.

I bolded your end-statement because, quite frankly, this is what is GREAT about this community. Discussions like this happen all over this board. I love it.

[MrWideFrame]

Wow 2.78 runs per game? What did Kershaw do to his teammates?

[Sam_15]

Maybe I'm just an oddball, but I voted Kershaw, though imo it was really close. W-L doesn't factor in my evaluation, and given how close their ERAs and IPs are, Kershaw's huge K total and tiny BB total has to take the cake.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by DocHalladay

Thanks for mentioning the RSG stat, RichW. I learned something new today!

Kershaw had 2.78 RSG, while Fernandez recieved 4.20. The Marlins won 86 games in 2016, while the Dodgers won 96.

I bolded your end-statement because, quite frankly, this is what is GREAT about this community. Discussions like this happen all over this board. I love it.

Thanks for the info. It probably enhances Fernandez' case for the CY.