Winning and Losing Streaks

waittilnextyear · 03-12-2019, 12:20 AM

Disclaimer: I am a newb in this mode and only recently completed my first "season" in bronze last week. Am in silver this week.

My question to the community is...does anyone else feel like their team is almost always on winning/losing streaks? Rather than win 1, lose 2, win 1, lose 1, win 3 etc. I certainly don't have the data or inclination to prove anything, but it seems like my team is always on some streak or other.

In bronze, I'd win 7, 8, or 9 in a row multiple times. Then I'd lose 4 or 5 in a row before ripping off another long winning streak. It didn't appear to have all that much to do with the quality of opponent, but more randomness.

In the first day of silver, my team has a 12-game losing streak (icky) that has turned into a 3-game winning streak pending action tomorrow. Yeah, my team probably isn't quite ready for silver and I get that, but it's more the streakiness/clustering of results that seems to be common to my team.

Anyone else get this feeling? Or am I just inferring too much into a small sample of games?

LandiHero · 03-12-2019, 01:33 AM

I definitely understand where this is coming, earlier today one of my teams went on a rampage and won 10 in a row, only to go on a skid and lose my next 4. However, another one of my teams has been very consistent and only once has had more than 4 wins in a row, and never more than 2 losses. When I look back at my streaks, most of the time it is sheer scheduling luck. For instance, here is a breakdown of my 10 game streak:

4 game sweep of a team that is 6-20 (which is just a decidedly terrible team)
3 game sweep of a team that is 10-17 where I faced his 3-5 pitchers
3 game sweep of a team that is 12-14 where I faced his 3-5 pitchers
Outside of the first series, none of the games were decided by more than 3 runs.
To me, this doesn't seem to be as much streakiness as it seems to be the perfect storm of luck. While that may not explain every streak, I feel like it explains mine fairly well.

The last little bit of info I can give you is that the devs have stated that a player's hot or cold streak will not have any affect on what the player will do in the future (at least my brother told me that the devs said that, and I trust him.) So I bet that if you look back through the skid that you've been on, you have faced some pretty good teams and most likely had some bad luck. If you look back on it at the end of the year, you probably would have even better context to check through. But in the end, you will sometimes get unlucky, but that's how you know you can count on some good luck later

Edit: I wanted to add a little more as to how bad the first team I swept was. 26 games into the season, they have given up a league most 173 runs while scoring a league worst 100 runs. The starters ERA is above 7, and the dEFF is hanging at a ripe .662, so I really mean this team is bad.

justpatrick · 03-12-2019, 05:44 AM

This is very definitely a streaky game. A few seasons back I went 17-9 in one month, first a 17 game winning streak followed by a 9 game losing streak.

sharknut · 03-12-2019, 05:59 AM

Far more streaky than real life, I brought up in the 2nd season of the game and it hasn't changed.

Kushiel · 03-12-2019, 06:31 AM

No matter how you dice it this a die rolling game. It is no more than a crap shooter's luck in Vegas does. There can be long hot streaks and vice versa at the craps table. if you cannot accept that part of the game, you will never be happy here.

sharknut · 03-12-2019, 07:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kushiel

No matter how you dice it this a die rolling game. It is no more than a crap shooter's luck in Vegas does. There can be long hot streaks and vice versa at the craps table. if you cannot accept that part of the game, you will never be happy here.

Just because I've accepted it doesn't mean I have to like it.

Kushiel · 03-12-2019, 07:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sharknut

Just because I've accepted it doesn't mean I have to like it.

If you understand and accept that you understand, why complain about something that cannot be changed due to the nature of the beast? I am just trying to understand that.

Orcin · 03-12-2019, 08:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kushiel

If you understand and accept that you understand, why complain about something that cannot be changed due to the nature of the beast? I am just trying to understand that.

Have you ever complained about the weather?

sharknut · 03-12-2019, 08:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kushiel

If you understand and accept that you understand, why complain about something that cannot be changed due to the nature of the beast? I am just trying to understand that.

I wasn't complaining, I just confirmed the OP's observation that this game is far more streaky than reality.

HRBaker · 03-12-2019, 08:56 AM

I think the talent level is wider in the lower levels (people who run with who they got versus people who start investing for improvements right away). That talent spread leaves room for more streaks than normal. Once you get to the upper levels, the range tightens and streaks decrease.

dkgo · 03-12-2019, 09:05 AM

definitely true. this late in the game a lot of teams in bronze are abandoned and very bad, and some are very good but just got unlucky in the playoffs for a couple seasons

sharknut · 03-12-2019, 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HRBaker

I think the talent level is wider in the lower levels (people who run with who they got versus people who start investing for improvements right away). That talent spread leaves room for more streaks than normal. Once you get to the upper levels, the range tightens and streaks decrease.

Not so. Just this year in the first 29 games in my Diamond league I have 3-4 game winning streaks and a 5 game losing steak. Over half my games have been in streaks and it happens every year I've played in Diamond and Perfect.

I haven't had a single case of w-l-w or l-w-l so far this year.

HRBaker · 03-12-2019, 09:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sharknut

Not so. Just this year in the first 29 games in my Diamond league I have 3-4 game winning streaks and a 4 game losing steak. Over half my games have been in streaks and it happens every year I've played in Diamond and Perfect.

I had 9-12 game winning streaks in Bronze that are now down to 3-4.

Leo_The_Lip · 03-12-2019, 10:08 AM

A familiarity with basic probability math will reveal that a team that went 81-81 will have had essentially a two-thirds chance of having had an eight game winning streak and also a two-thirds chance of having had an eight game losing streak.

So streaks are highly probable even if the entire season is a perfect coin toss result.

chazzycat · 03-12-2019, 12:36 PM

I think it's a little of both. People do underestimate the amount of streaks that are statistically "normal".

But also the leagues in PT are much, much less balanced than real life MLB leagues. So the streaks are probably amplified by that imbalance.

Kushiel · 03-12-2019, 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Orcin

Have you ever complained about the weather?

Every day.

waittilnextyear · 03-12-2019, 07:55 PM

Here is how my results are trending today...after the 12-game losing streak and 3-game winning streak from yesterday...

5-game losing streak
2-game winning "streak"
3-game losing "streak"
7-game winning streak (woohoo)
2-game (and counting) losing "streak"

I haven't dug into the opponents very much so that could be a factor (it certainly should be). It feels a little odd, but I think there are some explanations in this thread that have me satisfied that things are within acceptable parameters.

BidPro · 03-13-2019, 06:58 PM

I have had a 7 season losing streak.

03-12-2019, 12:20 AM	#1
waittilnextyear All Star Starter Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 1,272	Winning and Losing Streaks Disclaimer: I am a newb in this mode and only recently completed my first "season" in bronze last week. Am in silver this week. My question to the community is...does anyone else feel like their team is almost always on winning/losing streaks? Rather than win 1, lose 2, win 1, lose 1, win 3 etc. I certainly don't have the data or inclination to prove anything, but it seems like my team is always on some streak or other. In bronze, I'd win 7, 8, or 9 in a row multiple times. Then I'd lose 4 or 5 in a row before ripping off another long winning streak. It didn't appear to have all that much to do with the quality of opponent, but more randomness. In the first day of silver, my team has a 12-game losing streak (icky) that has turned into a 3-game winning streak pending action tomorrow. Yeah, my team probably isn't quite ready for silver and I get that, but it's more the streakiness/clustering of results that seems to be common to my team. Anyone else get this feeling? Or am I just inferring too much into a small sample of games?

03-12-2019, 01:33 AM	#2
LandiHero Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Feb 2019 Location: Pittsburgh, PA Posts: 48	I definitely understand where this is coming, earlier today one of my teams went on a rampage and won 10 in a row, only to go on a skid and lose my next 4. However, another one of my teams has been very consistent and only once has had more than 4 wins in a row, and never more than 2 losses. When I look back at my streaks, most of the time it is sheer scheduling luck. For instance, here is a breakdown of my 10 game streak: 4 game sweep of a team that is 6-20 (which is just a decidedly terrible team) 3 game sweep of a team that is 10-17 where I faced his 3-5 pitchers 3 game sweep of a team that is 12-14 where I faced his 3-5 pitchers Outside of the first series, none of the games were decided by more than 3 runs. To me, this doesn't seem to be as much streakiness as it seems to be the perfect storm of luck. While that may not explain every streak, I feel like it explains mine fairly well. The last little bit of info I can give you is that the devs have stated that a player's hot or cold streak will not have any affect on what the player will do in the future (at least my brother told me that the devs said that, and I trust him.) So I bet that if you look back through the skid that you've been on, you have faced some pretty good teams and most likely had some bad luck. If you look back on it at the end of the year, you probably would have even better context to check through. But in the end, you will sometimes get unlucky, but that's how you know you can count on some good luck later Edit: I wanted to add a little more as to how bad the first team I swept was. 26 games into the season, they have given up a league most 173 runs while scoring a league worst 100 runs. The starters ERA is above 7, and the dEFF is hanging at a ripe .662, so I really mean this team is bad. Last edited by LandiHero; 03-12-2019 at 01:40 AM.

03-12-2019, 06:31 AM	#5
Kushiel All Star Starter Join Date: Apr 2015 Location: Deep in the Heart of Texas Posts: 1,697	No matter how you dice it this a die rolling game. It is no more than a crap shooter's luck in Vegas does. There can be long hot streaks and vice versa at the craps table. if you cannot accept that part of the game, you will never be happy here. __________________ *Favente Deo supero*

03-12-2019, 08:56 AM	#10
HRBaker Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 2,090	I think the talent level is wider in the lower levels (people who run with who they got versus people who start investing for improvements right away). That talent spread leaves room for more streaks than normal. Once you get to the upper levels, the range tightens and streaks decrease. __________________

03-12-2019, 10:08 AM	#14
Leo_The_Lip All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 1,703	A familiarity with basic probability math will reveal that a team that went 81-81 will have had essentially a two-thirds chance of having had an eight game winning streak and also a two-thirds chance of having had an eight game losing streak. So streaks are highly probable even if the entire season is a perfect coin toss result. __________________ "My name will live forever" - Anonymous

03-12-2019, 05:44 AM	#3
justpatrick Major Leagues Join Date: Jul 2018 Location: Czech Republic Posts: 305	This is very definitely a streaky game. A few seasons back I went 17-9 in one month, first a 17 game winning streak followed by a 9 game losing streak.

03-12-2019, 05:59 AM	#4
sharknut All Star Reserve Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 788 Blog Entries: 1	Far more streaky than real life, I brought up in the 2nd season of the game and it hasn't changed.

03-12-2019, 09:05 AM	#11
dkgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 2,152	definitely true. this late in the game a lot of teams in bronze are abandoned and very bad, and some are very good but just got unlucky in the playoffs for a couple seasons

03-12-2019, 12:36 PM	#15
chazzycat All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 1,685	I think it's a little of both. People do underestimate the amount of streaks that are statistically "normal". But also the leagues in PT are much, much less balanced than real life MLB leagues. So the streaks are probably amplified by that imbalance.

03-12-2019, 07:55 PM	#17
waittilnextyear All Star Starter Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 1,272	Here is how my results are trending today...after the 12-game losing streak and 3-game winning streak from yesterday... 5-game losing streak 2-game winning "streak" 3-game losing "streak" 7-game winning streak (woohoo) 2-game (and counting) losing "streak" I haven't dug into the opponents very much so that could be a factor (it certainly should be). It feels a little odd, but I think there are some explanations in this thread that have me satisfied that things are within acceptable parameters.

03-13-2019, 06:58 PM	#18
BidPro Minors (Single A) Join Date: Nov 2018 Location: Eastern Washington Posts: 78 Blog Entries: 1	I have had a 7 season losing streak.