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Old 11-16-2018, 11:00 AM   #1
sansterre
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Southpaw Strat

First off. This is a reinterpretation of El Gringo's strat, so credit goes to him for thinking of it and posting it.

The basic premise is that you design a super-specific park for yourself. Then you only keep the players that are optimized for that strat. Sell the rest.

Park:

AVG: Righties 0.8, Lefties 1.2
HR: Righties 0.8, Lefties 1.2
2B/3B: 1.5

What does this mean? The 2B/3B means that you want higher gap than normal. Gap isn't a particularly strong attribute so it won't make or break anything, but you generally won't want players below 40 gap, and ultimately you'll find yourself with players in the 50-70 range. Again, still less important than any other attribute (by a decent amount) but it's a handy tie-breaker. It also means that you want better-than normal fielding in the outfield. Again, this isn't the #1 priority (the AVG/HR splits make sure of that) but it does count. In general you'll find that great-hitting solid fielders are much better than solid-hitting great fielders; just try and avoid crappy fielding unless the bat is really worth it.

So how big a deal is that 0.8 / 1.2 split between hands? Massive. Basically take (estimate) 8 points off the contact, and 12 points off the power, of any righty batter, and add those points for any lefty. So I'll save you the hassle of converting:

Every single one of your batters vR should be left-handed. You should have no more than 1 or 2 right-handed hitters on your entire team. Even against left-handed pitching left-handed bats will generally be better. This skew is huge. Basically, an optimized bronze left-handed batter will (with these park effects) be comparable to a middling gold right-handed batter.

What does this mean for pitchers? Easy. All left-handed SPs.

But why? After all, all lefty SPs means that opponents will load up on righty batters (of which there is no small quantity out there).

You should be so lucky. Right-handed batters in this park just aren't that good. Using all lefty SPs is basically your way to trick opponents into putting as many right-handed batters up against you as possible. This means that, with any luck, your Home games put your all-lefty lineup (massive park benefits) against their mostly righty lineup (massive park penalties). This may sound like a stretch but I assure you it works. My team (which in fairness, by A ball, was fairly loaded) was winning 2/3 of the games Away but was 49-4 at Home. And you will put up a ton of 10+ run games at Home once your roster gets loaded. PP-palooza.

As far as relievers you want mostly lefty relievers but I've been keeping one or two righties, just for Away games.

I cannot state this strongly enough; this park effect is ridiculous if you build for it. Imagine giving yourself an extra 16 points of contact and 24 points of power every home game for every batter; imagine that when playing in your park two thirds of opponents' batters lose 16 points of contact and 24 points of power. Those numbers are approximate, but still, tell me that isn't an incredible advantage.

Building Your Team:

For batters, early on, sell all non-lefties above 64. After the first week, sell all non-lefties above 69. After two-three weeks sell all non-lefties above 79. If you have righty batters they need to be bargains. Because you're going to sell that crap for more packs that will contain more lefties.

But as far as lefty hitters you want a good mix of all attributes. You can't ignore Contact or Power because that 1.2 multiplier means that you're really missing out if you're below 50 or so. You can't ignore Gap because of the 1.5 doubles/triples (but if you're going to ignore one of the big 4, Gap is still it). You can't ignore Eye because it's a quality stat. And you can't really afford to completely ignore Avoid K's because by a few weeks in, the average Stuff in the league will be at least 60. And that will only get worse. Having a decent avoid K's is the only way to protect against the increasing quality of opposing pitching. Don't hear that it's better than any of the top 4 attributes; it's not. But don't ignore it.

How does this play in practice? Generally, it favors batters with even stat distributions, just higher in Contact and Power. Guys like Ichiro definitely have value (Ichiro will always have value) with their high contact and high avoid K's; you can expect them to bat 350+ for you. But their lack of power really stings; that 1.2 multiplier doesn't help them much at all.

As far as pitching you're looking at the normal stat distribution; everything is equally bad below 50 but above 50 Stuff and Movement are twice-ish as good as Control. No righty starters. I don't care how good they are.

Batters to look For:

The #1 I can suggest is Kyle Schwarber. At Catcher. He's actually got mid-40s attributes in Catcher Ability and Arm, and you can expect him to hit 386/555 against right-handed pitching with half his games in your park. He's not a good fielding catcher, but with that bat you'd need at minimum a gold to match those batting numbers.

Other batters there are too many to mention (again, any lefty will do, you're just choosing the best of them).
Eddie Rosario is a surprisingly cheap 1B/2B player.
Bill Terry (77 point version) is freaking fantastic; he'll OPS 950 for you against both lefties and righties (even though he's a lefty, he hits left-handed pitching surprisingly well).
Nick Markakis is always great with his strong vR splits.
Lonnie Chisenhall is a decent cheap OF.
Gregory Polanco is quite nice.
But again, just grab the best lefty at each position you can.
And don't be afraid to move positions. Joe Morgan is a monster 2B. But he's even more valuable at SS, because the number of solid-hitting lefty SS out there is about zero.

All of this said, with the possible exception of Schwarber, I don't advocate spending much, if any PP on targeted upgrades. Your criteria aren't that specific; you just want the best lefties possible. You're generally better off investing in the Churn.

The Churn

Why sell off your non-lefties? Because packs are more valuable sold than kept, long-term. Observe the following chart (approximate, conservative, values):

Common: 3.37 cards per pack, 5 PP per card (vendored )
Bronze: 2 cards per pack, 35 PP per card (mostly vendored, some AH'd)
Silver: 0.5 cards per pack, 350 PP per card (AH'd)
Gold: 0.1 cards per pack, 3000 PP per card (AH'd)
Diamond: 0.05 cards per pack, 12500 PP per card (AH'd)
Perfect: 0.005 cards per pack, 65000 PP per card (AH'd)

This converts to an expected yield of:

Common: 17 PP per pack
Bronze: 70 PP per pack
Silver: 158 PP per pack (taking out 10% for the vig)
Gold: 270 PP per pack
Diamond: 563 PP per pack
Perfect: 293 PP per pack

This adds up to 1371 PP per pack. These values are wildly approximate, but I've never not averaged receiving more from selling the contents of packs than I spent on the packs themselves (given 20+ packs to average out). You may notice that these numbers only balance if you're selling Golds, Diamonds and Perfects. That's absolutely true. Sell 'em. It's worth it. I once got lucky and drew a Perfect Mariano Rivera. I immediately turned around, sold him for 75k (67.5k after tax) and bought 67 packs. Out of those packs I got a diamond Carl Yastrzemski, a gold Charlie Gehringer, a gold Warren Spahn, and three bullpen upgrades for my roster. In addition to those I got another two diamonds, another four golds, another 30 silvers and even a Perfect (the perfect was lucky - I only had a 1 in 3 chance of drawing one, even in 67 packs). This is a long way of saying, my Mariano being sold yielded two bat upgrades, one SP upgrade, three bullpen upgrades and the remaining pieces are sellable for maybe 50-60k, and that is definitely not counting the Perfect deGrom, who'll sell for at least that much by himself.

The more PP you have, the more packs you can buy, skim your lefties off the top and re-sell. Once you get this engine rolling (assuming you're diligent about your auctioning) you're pretty much never opening less than 25 packs a day and reselling all but a few.

Now, you may say, "I just drew a Diamond Mike Piazza! He'll be a huge upgrade; no way that I'm selling him." First off, he won't be as much of an upgrade as you think; remember, it sucks to be a righty when you have this park. He's probably only slightly better than Schwarber. Sell him. With the 10-12 packs you open after that you'll get a decent number of upgrades and then sell the leftovers for even more packs. The earlier you start selling your high-end righties (and you should be doing it out of the gate) the sooner you build up a nest egg that you can keep reinvesting and rolling forward. Trust me: with this park you *always* want the points instead of the big-name right handed player. You do not want to be one of those players who is dependent on PP earned from team performance; PP from performance are a nice bonus, but they shouldn't be more than 30% of your income over the week, if that. More PP = better team; invest in your future.

The churn strategy early is pretty luck driven. If you're opening 50 packs luck won't really matter (except for a Perfect); you'll get your value out of them. But you may well open your first ten packs and get not a single gold+. This will slow down your team's improvement, because selling golds and up are the fuel of the engine. But that's okay. This is like being the house in Blackjack. You may lose for a bit. But long-term this is a pretty solid strat.

And your team will probably be terrible early. It'll take you close to a week to have all Bronze+ lefties to work with. By that point they'll be holding their own.

Obviously once you start selling off Perfects (and this will happen; once every 200 packs sounds rare but if you're selling off at the rate I'm talking about you'll get to 200 packs opened in 2-3 weeks and it goes up even faster from there) it'll become a burden to AH every single Bronze+. One solid Perfect sale should lead to at least 150 Bronze or better players and that can suck to do. If you don't have time, remember that the auto-vendor rules in your profile are your friend. That said, I recommend not setting them higher than 65, lest you miss out on any of the high Bronzes that can be AHd for 100+.

Will the values of cards change the farther we play? Of course. I'd guess that the value curve is going to shift farther and farther toward the diamond/perfect cards (an even bigger reason to be ready to sell them if you get them and they aren't fits). And there may come a point where the average yield of packs becomes less than the cost of a pack. At that point the Churn strategy becomes less efficient, but it's hypothetical at this point.

tl;dr Use the park factors above. Use all lefty pitchers (minus one or two RPs), use all lefty batters (minus one or two cheap righties for vL matchups Away). AH/sell off every righty unless they're low overall. Be ruthless about reinvesting in your team's future by churning your roster of everyone that doesn't fit your strat. Don't ignore any batting attributes; they all matter, but Contact/Power most of all.

* I don't mention switch hitters. Generally I auction them but there are exceptions. Switches are lefties vR, but become much worse vL. Your super-lefties (Bonds, Yaz, Morgan, Yelich) are playable against both sides; with a Perfect Mantle you may be surprised to find that vL he's no better than that 81 point Gold lefty who's backing him up. Generally I'd figure that the 70k+ points are better than Mantle vR, but I could see the counterpoint.

** This strat has worked wonders for me but others are welcome to disagree. I just wanted to put the experience out there, for others to try and improve on (or ignore). Good luck!

*** I strongly endorse the use of a spreadsheet for PT. With 1-100 ratings and no scouting, you should be able to state reasonably certainly which batters are better than which. A good excel sheet can handle hundreds of players at a time and simply spit out which are the best for you. Makes sifting through huge numbers of players way easier. (And lets you weigh attributes and adjust for park effects very easily and successfully).

Last edited by sansterre; 11-16-2018 at 02:27 PM.
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Old 11-16-2018, 11:50 AM   #2
CrazyWR
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Been running this in my league and we're about 30 games over .500 at what would be the trade deadline. Don't use the gap part, but the 20% either way is already there. It seriously helps in the auction house like you say, and its hilarious how the home/road splits look. As an example, thru about 16 starts (I'm at work so just off the top of my head), Harvey Haddix has 16 HR's allowed thru 48.2 innings on the road and 2 HR's allowed in 73.1 IP at home.

I do use some platooning, but as always, lefty hitters get the higher side of the platoon and it helps to keep some of the players fresh anyways. I've so far managed to find 4 lefty starters I'm happy with and 4 of my 7 bullpen guys are lefty as well. It would be 5 but I can't find a lefty long guy I like yet.

I hadn't considered the pack spam part of it yet. Might have to incorporate that. I've only really opened 3 packs since the initial 6. 2 of the 3 paid off and I'm sure over time like you said the numbers would work in my favor. Thanks for that suggestion!
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Old 11-16-2018, 12:25 PM   #3
drhay53
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In a different thread I literally just pointed out how I don't like that you can adjust park factors yourself. This strategy just hammers home the point of how terrible it is. This isn't baseball. This is gaming a poorly designed system.

No offense to OP intended.
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Old 11-16-2018, 12:31 PM   #4
sansterre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by drhay53 View Post
In a different thread I literally just pointed out how I don't like that you can adjust park factors yourself. This strategy just hammers home the point of how terrible it is. This isn't baseball. This is gaming a poorly designed system.

No offense to OP intended.
No offense taken. My assumption is that the developers wanted to give as many avenues for optimizing your team beyond brute force "have teh best playerz" and they saw adjustable park effects as a means to this end. But, as with anything that gives players more options, it is prone to exploitation. I see this as a legitimate strategy to allow F2P players to compete with Whales, but your point is well taken.
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Old 11-16-2018, 12:33 PM   #5
Matty86
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Definitely going to try this with one of my teams, thanks for posting!
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Old 11-16-2018, 12:37 PM   #6
Lukas Berger
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Well, we've capped how much the parks can be adjusted. You can only modify them so much. They have to stay within pretty reasonable levels. Many real life parks have far more extreme effects than you can set in PT.

And I do definitely disagree with the assertion that "this isn't baseball. This is gaming a poorly designed system". I don't take offense to it, no worries, it's drhay53's personal opinion and every bit as valid as mine, but just don't agree at all.

This is definitely baseball and it's what teams like the Yankees (with their short RF porch) Red Sox (with the Green Monster and Pesky pole), Rockies, Giants (in the Polo Ground days) as well as many others over the years have been doing for as long as baseball has been around, adjusting their teams to match either planned or unplanned quirks of their home stadiums.
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Last edited by Lukas Berger; 11-16-2018 at 12:41 PM.
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Old 11-16-2018, 12:37 PM   #7
drhay53
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See, the thing is, the counter to this strategy will be to check if your opponent is using a park factor strategy and micromanage your roster to maximize your ability to compete. i.e. Carrying all left-handed pitchers who are tough on lefties. Moving lefties into your own lineup. Carrying enough cards to get around the 14-day restriction. etc.

I get that it's "strategic". In some ways it could be fun. It's just not why I play OOTP. The park factor limits should probably be a lot closer to 1 IMO. Or a different system should be implemented. I personally like the random park factors version; you get a random ballpark from MLB history and then you have to decide how to tweak your roster (or if you even bother).
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Old 11-16-2018, 12:46 PM   #8
drhay53
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Originally Posted by Lukas Berger View Post
Well, we've capped how much the parks can be adjusted. You can only modify them so much. They have to stay within pretty reasonable levels. Many real life parks have far more extreme effects than you can set in PT.

And I do disagree pretty strongly with the assertion that "this isn't baseball. This is gaming a poorly designed system". I don't take offense to it, no worries, but just don't agree at all.

This is definitely baseball and it's what teams like the Yankees (with their short RF porch) Red Sox (with the Green Monster and Pesky pole), Rockies, Giants (in the Polo Ground days) as well as many others over the years have been doing for as long as baseball has been around, adjusting their teams to match either planned or unplanned quirks of their home stadiums.
When the strategy is "everyone on your team should be a lefty and you'll win 60+% of your home games" then respectfully I disagree. Real BP factors may be more extreme on aggregate, but the example you give, Yankee stadium, has pretty high HR factors for both LH and RH hitters. The issue with the current system is that you're able to create split-oriented systems that create strategies that would never work in real baseball. And that's the issue I take with it.

The largest park factor differences from 1 that I see in current MLB are about 10%. The biggest difference between LH and RH park factors is about 11%. In the strategy posted here, you're talking a 40% swing between LH and RH park factors. That's pure insanity.
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Old 11-16-2018, 12:50 PM   #9
Thalion
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I modified my park a bit this year but not to this extreme. I put HR for everyone to 0.9 increased both doubles and triples to 1.1 because my team is built for the most part around elite defense, speed, contact, and gap hitting. I think I left AVG the same.

As such, I only have 2 players with double digit homeruns through July (Gil Hodges and Duke Snider). Next year, I don't know if I'm going to tweak HR even further down but I will probably increase the extra base hits up a bit.

I'm completely undecided if I want to raise AVG since I am so reliant on pitching though.

(and yes, I know that Hodges and Snider are not speedy, but hey... "Boys of Summer")
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Old 11-16-2018, 01:22 PM   #10
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I think you park-based players hurt yourselves with all this TBH.

I keep my park neutral, with emphasis on good defenders and a lot of platooning. If I build a good team of this type, I'll not only be a good neutral park team, but have a chance of beating you in your own park, too.

Whatever advantage you're giving yourself in your own park, you're giving it back to me when you come to mine. Then inevitably you're going to run into a team who has built their park in the opposite fashion to yours. I'm just as capable of beating them there as I am beating you in your park. You have almost no chance of winning at their house.

I think this is a good strategy if:

1. You have a team that is likely to be a loser. You'll get home wins that you wouldn't have gotten, and lose away games that you'll likely have lost anyway.

2. If you're playing a season of PT not with the idea of winning the league, but earning PP. If my team stalls, I might adjust my park so that my pitching stats would be absolutely ridiculous (I love pitchers, man) and I'd earn pp from great pitching performances.

But other than that, I'm not seeing it. Most winning teams are built to win anywhere.

Last edited by One Post Wonder; 11-16-2018 at 01:32 PM.
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Old 11-16-2018, 01:30 PM   #11
One Post Wonder
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Originally Posted by drhay53 View Post
In a different thread I literally just pointed out how I don't like that you can adjust park factors yourself. This strategy just hammers home the point of how terrible it is. This isn't baseball. This is gaming a poorly designed system.

No offense to OP intended.
To add to what Lukas said, there have been many, many examples throughout baseball history of teams adjusting their parks pre-season in an effort to help their players. I don't know if that's common now but it was very commonplace in the past.

I'd actually like a way, in solo mode, to be able to pay for adjustments like that to my own park. I know I can do it as a commish, but I'd like to be able to do it organically. Let the AI do it too.

What I don't agree with is that you can just type in values - RHB 80% average, LHB, 120% average and so on instead of adjusting fence height, distances, and wind effects. It doesn't make sense. How can a RHB be penalized for average and home runs but not get a bonus elsewhere? If you move the left field fence out to reduce home runs, you create more space and are more likely to give up hits to LF. If you raise the LF fence height, you'll give up more doubles to RHB. There's too much flexibility - you can't reduce everything for one side of the field. Reducing one thing always should increase something else.

Last edited by One Post Wonder; 11-16-2018 at 01:33 PM.
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Old 11-16-2018, 01:39 PM   #12
sansterre
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Originally Posted by One Post Wonder View Post
I think you park-based players hurt yourselves with all this TBH.

I keep my park neutral, with emphasis on good defenders and a lot of platooning. If I build a good team of this type, I'll not only be a good neutral park team, but have a chance of beating you in your own park, too.

Whatever advantage you're giving yourself in your own park, you're giving it back to me when you come to mine. Then inevitably you're going to run into a team who has built their park in the opposite fashion to yours. I'm just as capable of beating them there as I am in your park. You have almost no chance of winning at their house.

I think this is a good strategy if:

1. You have a team that is likely to be a loser. You'll get home wins that you wouldn't have gotten, and lose away games that you'll likely have lost anyway.

2. If you're playing a season of PT not with the idea of winning the league, but earning PP. If my team stalls, I might adjust my park so that my pitching stats would be absolutely ridiculous (I love pitchers, man) and I'd earn pp from great pitching performances.

But other than that, I'm not seeing it. Most winning teams are built to win anywhere.
I understand your position but I disagree with the theory. Bear with me:

Premise 1: A neutral Home park helps both teams equally.
Premise 2: Opposing parks will vary among teams
Premise 3: As a corollary to Premise 2, given a sufficiently high sample of opposing away parks, the aggregate Away park effect for your team will run to neutral.
Premise 4: If Premise 3 is true then you cannot worry about other parks, as they are unpredictable and will generally average out.
Premise 5: The more specific your park is the more your team can be optimized for it.
Premise 6: Your opponents cannot optimize for your park as well as you can, mostly because of Premise 2 and Premise 3.
Premise 7: Therefor, the most lopsided park effects help you the most, as long as you build around them intelligently.

Let's take your example, because I quite believe that it works for my case. Let us hypothesize that my park effects are so extreme that I win 80% of my home games. You argue that playing another team with the opposite park factors would punish me just as much as my current park helps me, presumably meaning that I would only win 20% of my games in this Bizarro Park.

Of course, in the example I still go 500. But I'm not playing in Bizarro Park 81 times in the season, I'm playing there 3 or 6 times a season, along with 75-78 Away games at other parks (which average neutral over enough samples). Let's say that my team is so lopsided that I struggle at neutral parks. I wouldn't struggle too much (neutral parks don't discriminate) but let's say that I only won 40% of my games Away. As long as I'm winning 80% at Home I still finish with a great record.

I guess, I agree that optimizing so hard for such a lopsided park hurts me on the road. I know that it does. But I don't think there's any way to argue that being optimized for my home park hurts me in neutral parks more than it helps me at home.

Last edited by sansterre; 11-16-2018 at 01:58 PM.
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Old 11-16-2018, 05:00 PM   #13
Silfir
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I do agree the strategy will result in extra wins over the course of the season, simply because at least 50% of your games will be played in a park geared towards your own strengths, and the remaining 50% won't take place in the opposite-extreme bizarro park.

In the post-season, though, it's kind of moot; you're kind of having to hope that you'll get home park advantage, since you'll have to make up for the fact that your opponent managed to get an equivalent winning record without relying on a lopsided park strategy like you did, which means their team is likely more talented overall.



To be fair, I don't think your argument was ever predicated on this being a strategy to win championships - you advocate using this way to "moneyball it" and coax a respectable record out of relatively inexpensive players, and it's predicated on opening packs being significantly profitable (which they may or may not be, depending on the state of PT's economy), which means flipping players is the ideal strategy even if you could make use of them in theory.

Last edited by Silfir; 11-16-2018 at 05:02 PM.
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Old 11-16-2018, 05:07 PM   #14
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I would rather just get all of the best players and beat the hell outta people.
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Old 11-16-2018, 05:51 PM   #15
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I played the pool and the first season in Comerica Park because I had speed and less power with 4 left hand starting pitchers. I am playing this season in Chase Field because I have more power and more left handed starters. A tricked up field is okay but there are big league parks and parks in the mod that will fit your team without relying on extremes. Being a Ranger fan, I learned long ago when the season is over and your are playing the winners I would be more worried about pitching.
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Old 11-16-2018, 06:26 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sansterre View Post
The basic premise is that you design a super-specific park for yourself. Then you only keep the players that are optimized for that strat. Sell the rest.
Note to all players: If sansterre is in your league, you should all design your parks to be extremely friendly to righties, and load up on right-handed players. But keep a few lefties on the active roster for when you're playing him on the road.
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Old 11-16-2018, 07:14 PM   #17
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I'm in his division. I wont have to worry about it next week with the way I am playing.
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