League Total Modifiers for Fictional League - Page 3

RchW · 10-23-2015, 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoOne

make sure you use at least 100 years of data when changing LTMs. even 150-200 is a better idea. some stats do normalize before others, but better safe than sorry. let it run overnight.

I change LTM every season and have never had an issue. I agree that some stat outputs are more difficult to control than others but there is no reason any form of long term sim is necessary to bring league totals into line.

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoOne

when you use 20-50yrs the averages likely won't be accurate enough to use with confidence.

I've got a league played for 90 seasons and another played for 70 seasons where for the last 30+ season in each league I've used Autocalc and my own spreadsheet to determine the LTM before every season. Again I don't understand what you think is happening.

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoOne

e.g. if in 30 years you had a 5-10 year period of exceedingly talented players in your league without an equally polar 5-10years of less talent, this might result in you lowering the LTMs more than you intended. the sample isn't large enough to account for the effects of league turnover.

These variations in talent allow you to establish mini eras in your league history. I look at league totals each season and often decide to let certain results continue. For example I've had the steroid era 5600 HR. I've had dominant SP with many complete games and now I have a high ERA era with high strikeouts. I think you may be scaring people away from one of the best parts of the game. If you want to keep things static then allow LTM to fluctuate via autocalc and/or a spreadsheet.

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoOne

keep a history of suggestions from whatever spreadsheet you are using and a history of used LTM and the resulting long-term sim averages for the related statistic.

you'll find that even if you change 1 LTM +/-.001 and nothing else, it may not be in perfect scale as the math suggests. e.g. i found a point where .001 to the K's LTM added 20+X more than .001/<original LTM>. instead of getting an extra 30some strikeouts, i got ~600-800 more. the memory is faded, but the scale is close enough. in addition to league settings/structure etc... if you change something like Hits LTM, this point i describe will shift, so i can't tell you where that line exists for Strikeout LTM at any particular time and setting. just know it can happen and choose to live with the significant increase/decrease or revert to the previous LTM setting. anyway, a history of what was suggested and what you used helps you notice these things.

I don't really understand what you mean by this but what I do know is that 4 decimal places don't matter a lot. I generally round off many LTM and don't see many issues. Not saying you're wrong but again this just doesn't happen to me. Just to clarify if I have a LTM of 1.201 calculated I enter 1.2 and it has never caused an issue.

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoOne

taking an average of them isn't necesarily the best use, either... e.g. averaging sets of LTM that have different Hits LTM values is not going to work out well. what it helps with is seeing where various proverbial "cliffs" are as you change as little as .001 for a particular LTM.

When I have totals that bother me, generally WP, BK, PB, SF, SH. These are the hardest to control. I find that averaging LTM is the best solution. Otherwise the league totals tend to oscillate hi-lo-hi-lo.

I'm not sure what type of leagues you run but I've had significant success manipulating LTM even within a season with fine adjustments to stats like ground ball outs to get a very realistic statistical output, even in the minor leagues. Maybe we should exchange league files to see why our impressions are so different.

Klew1986 · 10-23-2015, 09:39 PM

Pitcher ERA is a little high right now. Not many sub 3.00 ERAs in seasons.

NoOne · 10-24-2015, 01:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RchW

I change LTM every season and have never had an issue. I agree that some stat outputs are more difficult to control than others but there is no reason any form of long term sim is necessary to bring league totals into line.

I've got a league played for 90 seasons and another played for 70 seasons where for the last 30+ season in each league I've used Autocalc and my own spreadsheet to determine the LTM before every season. Again I don't understand what you think is happening.

These variations in talent allow you to establish mini eras in your league history. I look at league totals each season and often decide to let certain results continue. For example I've had the steroid era 5600 HR. I've had dominant SP with many complete games and now I have a high ERA era with high strikeouts. I think you may be scaring people away from one of the best parts of the game. If you want to keep things static then allow LTM to fluctuate via autocalc and/or a spreadsheet.

I don't really understand what you mean by this but what I do know is that 4 decimal places don't matter a lot. I generally round off many LTM and don't see many issues. Not saying you're wrong but again this just doesn't happen to me. Just to clarify if I have a LTM of 1.201 calculated I enter 1.2 and it has never caused an issue.

When I have totals that bother me, generally WP, BK, PB, SF, SH. These are the hardest to control. I find that averaging LTM is the best solution. Otherwise the league totals tend to oscillate hi-lo-hi-lo.

I'm not sure what type of leagues you run but I've had significant success manipulating LTM even within a season with fine adjustments to stats like ground ball outs to get a very realistic statistical output, even in the minor leagues. Maybe we should exchange league files to see why our impressions are so different.

i'm not going to cover all of this... we have a fundamental difference. i want an environment where player talent, and tangible things defined in the game dictate statistical output. i aim for LTMs that remain static and do not change. therefore a player with 90power in 2015 is the same as a 90power batter in 2155. what changes is the randomly created players, coaches, development process etc... if i wanted to institute some major change in how my league plays baseball, i'd change LTM manually at that point.

i don't want an arbitrary change in an LTM to dictate anything about statistical output and fluctuation - unless it is tied to a tangible change in my league, or concept in my head. if you want to manually pick when various types of eras begin or end, that's a good reason for you to fiddle with them, but the function is arbitrary in nature.

about shorter sims - the average you get from them is loaded with percent error. they are not precise. this isn't about opinion, this is about sample size and level of confidence in calculated averages.

it is necessary if you want an environment that doesn't require the use of autocalc. autocalc will cause fluctuation but for reasons other than player talent, coaching, development etc...

changing LTM has nothing to do with the talent in your league. you or autocalc is deciding that 90 power should equate to fewer or more homeruns in a particular year based on a small sample size. changing LTM is changing the scale of various player ratings (simplified). increase HR LTM means more HR per power rating (simplified).

if you don't put in the time and effort to flesh out the averages and LTMs that create an equal environment regardless of era, but you want something like that, then autocalc is for you. with a little effort you can center the natural fluctuation around a point of your choosing. if you want to say the mound has been raised again and institute a pitcher's era - cool beans. you have a cause to use it. something tangible...

about adding .001:
okay, this is all hypothetical: let's say K's for a 28t/156g league over 100 years averages to ~32,750. adding .001 to that LTM will result in 33,600 average over 100 years in second sim, or an 850 increase. if it were at 1.000 you would expect .001 of 33,000 (pretend it's the league total in settings), which is +33 SO's not +850 SO. it's so drastically different there is no explanation. you just have to roll with it. this does happen at certain points and not only with SO's. you can't recognize this happening in 1 or even 20 years of data. 50 will give a good idea, but it still is off by +/-X% that's significant enough to cause problems in guesstimating the real resulting average. other varibles influence at what LTM value this occurs. it isn't a static point.

this actual average is not something you can see in 1 year of data. in fact, you can't see anything from one year with any confidence. to show you what i mean, i attached a min/max/average/range (in that order and in order of LTMs, sorry no headers in that area) of various stats from a 100year sim with static LTMs - this was 28teams and 156games. the min/max will show that any year can be drastically different. so, even if you have a high level of talent and there is an off year due to bad luck, autocalc will inflate the related LTM causing an artificial increase in those stats not based on something tangible. when this situation arises, players will get a benefit in those years for poor reasons. sure it can happen the other way too, and my argument still stands. without somethign tangible(in the game/in a person's head) tied to the ltm change, it doesn't make much sense to do without cause.

now, if in anyone uses this, justified or not, that's fine. it won't ruin anything. regardless, it is still an arbitrary re-scaling of ratings and whatever else it influences to cause change. even the title is scary relative to a sim.. "for statistical accuracy." it will cover up leagues with fundamental flaws that result in whacky statistical output without using it. this type of thing is not natural for a simulation. it's taking the results and saying "i don't like this, so i'll arbitrarily inflate this over here and maybe change my mind a few years later." (that's the game speaking to itself)

NoOne · 10-24-2015, 02:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Klew1986

If I upload file, would you take a look at it? I'm not the best at figuring this stuff out.

if you want to send me the leaguge_pitching fielding and batting stats csv dump, sure. i'll pop it into the spread sheet and send it back to you. you'll have to input stuff from your game (totals and current mods).

due to formatting in the spreadsheet, please have headers inserted and use comma as a delimiter (settings control these things in game). depending on how many years of data you have, it may or may not fit in the PMs here. i can break it into zip chunks but that's annoying, lol.

you should try to play around with it yourself, too. i tried to write up some verbose instructions. once you get it down, it literally takes seconds to use. the moment you open it, it asks to update links to the csv files, and then it's completely updated, and results are calculated. that's it. it is ready to read.

is this a fictional league? the first 15-30 years of data will be bunk. this is one of the rare times you will hear me say... this time period is a good place to use autocalculate for statistical accuracy, LoL, !@!$%#. but! it's not for good reasons, it's to cover up a shortcoming of the game.

you will have to wait for created players to filter though your league. the minor leaguers you get to start a fictional league are substandard unless you got really lucky. they are not created in the same way as amateurs for your draft and international FA kids. i sim out 35 years. overkill, but better safe than sorry. i figure a 20 year career and 6 years of minors (26 years) will cover 99.9% of players. 35 years assures it beyond any doubt.

real-world leagues you have to sim out until all the real players are replaced... same idea but slightly different reasons. the stats will be all whacky during this transition period, without using autocalc. there's no feasible way to calculate averages when the talent distribution is undergoing a significant and permanent shift.

Klew1986 · 10-24-2015, 07:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoOne

if you want to send me the leaguge_pitching fielding and batting stats csv dump, sure. i'll pop it into the spread sheet and send it back to you. you'll have to input stuff from your game (totals and current mods).

due to formatting in the spreadsheet, please have headers inserted and use comma as a delimiter (settings control these things in game). depending on how many years of data you have, it may or may not fit in the PMs here. i can break it into zip chunks but that's annoying, lol.

you should try to play around with it yourself, too. i tried to write up some verbose instructions. once you get it down, it literally takes seconds to use. the moment you open it, it asks to update links to the csv files, and then it's completely updated, and results are calculated. that's it. it is ready to read.

is this a fictional league? the first 15-30 years of data will be bunk. this is one of the rare times you will hear me say... this time period is a good place to use autocalculate for statistical accuracy, LoL, !@!$%#. but! it's not for good reasons, it's to cover up a shortcoming of the game.

you will have to wait for created players to filter though your league. the minor leaguers you get to start a fictional league are substandard unless you got really lucky. they are not created in the same way as amateurs for your draft and international FA kids. i sim out 35 years. overkill, but better safe than sorry. i figure a 20 year career and 6 years of minors (26 years) will cover 99.9% of players. 35 years assures it beyond any doubt.

real-world leagues you have to sim out until all the real players are replaced... same idea but slightly different reasons. the stats will be all whacky during this transition period, without using autocalc. there's no feasible way to calculate averages when the talent distribution is undergoing a significant and permanent shift.

It's a fictional league. I have simmed from 1900 through the 1953 season. I started with 16 teams and am now up to 20 teams. Attached are the three excel documents you need. They have built in headers. Let me know if you need anything else.

I know I probably shouldn't have, but I was adjusting League Total Modifiers as I simmed. I would only change them every 5-10 years. So numbers might be a little off.

league_history_batting_stats.csv
league_history_fielding_stats.csv
league_history_pitching_stats.csv

RchW · 10-24-2015, 09:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoOne

i'm not going to cover all of this... we have a fundamental difference. i want an environment where player talent, and tangible things defined in the game dictate statistical output. i aim for LTMs that remain static and do not change. therefore a player with 90power in 2015 is the same as a 90power batter in 2155. what changes is the randomly created players, coaches, development process etc... if i wanted to institute some major change in how my league plays baseball, i'd change LTM manually at that point.

i don't want an arbitrary change in an LTM to dictate anything about statistical output and fluctuation - unless it is tied to a tangible change in my league, or concept in my head. if you want to manually pick when various types of eras begin or end, that's a good reason for you to fiddle with them, but the function is arbitrary in nature.

about shorter sims - the average you get from them is loaded with percent error. they are not precise. this isn't about opinion, this is about sample size and level of confidence in calculated averages.

it is necessary if you want an environment that doesn't require the use of autocalc. autocalc will cause fluctuation but for reasons other than player talent, coaching, development etc...

changing LTM has nothing to do with the talent in your league. you or autocalc is deciding that 90 power should equate to fewer or more homeruns in a particular year based on a small sample size. changing LTM is changing the scale of various player ratings (simplified). increase HR LTM means more HR per power rating (simplified).

if you don't put in the time and effort to flesh out the averages and LTMs that create an equal environment regardless of era, but you want something like that, then autocalc is for you. with a little effort you can center the natural fluctuation around a point of your choosing. if you want to say the mound has been raised again and institute a pitcher's era - cool beans. you have a cause to use it. something tangible...

about adding .001:
okay, this is all hypothetical: let's say K's for a 28t/156g league over 100 years averages to ~32,750. adding .001 to that LTM will result in 33,600 average over 100 years in second sim, or an 850 increase. if it were at 1.000 you would expect .001 of 33,000 (pretend it's the league total in settings), which is +33 SO's not +850 SO. it's so drastically different there is no explanation. you just have to roll with it. this does happen at certain points and not only with SO's. you can't recognize this happening in 1 or even 20 years of data. 50 will give a good idea, but it still is off by +/-X% that's significant enough to cause problems in guesstimating the real resulting average. other varibles influence at what LTM value this occurs. it isn't a static point.

this actual average is not something you can see in 1 year of data. in fact, you can't see anything from one year with any confidence. to show you what i mean, i attached a min/max/average/range (in that order and in order of LTMs, sorry no headers in that area) of various stats from a 100year sim with static LTMs - this was 28teams and 156games. the min/max will show that any year can be drastically different. so, even if you have a high level of talent and there is an off year due to bad luck, autocalc will inflate the related LTM causing an artificial increase in those stats not based on something tangible. when this situation arises, players will get a benefit in those years for poor reasons. sure it can happen the other way too, and my argument still stands. without somethign tangible(in the game/in a person's head) tied to the ltm change, it doesn't make much sense to do without cause.

now, if in anyone uses this, justified or not, that's fine. it won't ruin anything. regardless, it is still an arbitrary re-scaling of ratings and whatever else it influences to cause change. even the title is scary relative to a sim.. "for statistical accuracy." it will cover up leagues with fundamental flaws that result in whacky statistical output without using it. this type of thing is not natural for a simulation. it's taking the results and saying "i don't like this, so i'll arbitrarily inflate this over here and maybe change my mind a few years later." (that's the game speaking to itself)

Well it's all gobbledygook to me. I just never realized how complicated a simple thing could be made to look. You obviously have your way and if it works for you that's great. I'll stick with my approach.

NoOne · 10-24-2015, 03:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RchW

Well it's all gobbledygook to me. I just never realized how complicated a simple thing could be made to look. You obviously have your way and if it works for you that's great. I'll stick with my approach.

i was never trying to convince you of anything. you had questions about what i wrote. i responded.

the bottom line is that on its own, this function literally reacts to randmness of results from a small sample size and alters the scale of various ratings, or whatever else, in the game for the following year.

i think i read it only uses 3yrs of quickly calculated data to come up with new LTM? the percent error associated with the sample size for all the various stats is atrocious.

changing LTMs without good reasons is like conducting a poll and when you don't like the results you decide to change something to coax a more preferred answer. (assumes the original method was logical and rational)

once i get the LTMs to center around a baseline that i feel is accurate to modern MLB, i leave them alone. very simple, indeed - not even a thought is applied to them after that.

NoOne · 10-24-2015, 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Klew1986

It's a fictional league. I have simmed from 1900 through the 1953 season. I started with 16 teams and am now up to 20 teams. Attached are the three excel documents you need. They have built in headers. Let me know if you need anything else.

I know I probably shouldn't have, but I was adjusting League Total Modifiers as I simmed. I would only change them every 5-10 years. So numbers might be a little off.

Attachment 424325
Attachment 424326
Attachment 424327

Edit: i'm working on it as i type, so i'll post a reply soon.

okay, some issues i see ...

1) one this spreadsheet is setup for a static number of teams... it would take some persnalized edits to account for the change in # of teams each time it occurs. # of games and number of teams will need to be accounted for.

2) if you changed LTMs throughout, there is little information to glean from this spreadsheet. it's purpose is to make a change after enough years of data are collected.

*there is nothing wrong with adjusting LTM, don't get me wrong. if you haven't centered your stats around a baseline of your choosing, there's nothing else you can do but alter them on occasion or use autocalc. this is the path of least resistance that you may want to take. it's easier.

i'll send back 2 spreadsheets, nonetheless. just don't put too much weight into the suggestions, because of the 2 reasons i listed above. the data is tainted, so take it as a grain of salt.

NoOne · 10-24-2015, 04:08 PM

ugh, they have to be zip files, LoL... why?!?

i removed any yellow background on cells you do not need to use. All yellow background cells on the Input worksheet must be filled in. (actually in your case the current LTMs arent necessary to fill in due to what i explained in the previous post, but you can put them in if you wish). Do not touch any other cell's contents. the only other thing you will ever adjust outside that input worksheet is the table size on the "Work" worksheet to accomodate the correct amount of years.

the "adjusted" section of the Work worksheet is scaling the LTMs that also have totals listed for them in the league settings. this is so that you can compare apples to apples. e.g. 4500hr with 150,000ab is not the same as 4500hr with 148,000ab. this adjusts them to an even scale. the raw data is at the far end of the table.

if you didn't make majore adjustments to your LTMS (guessing <.010 changes???), you might get some half-way useful info from the suggested new mods. however, apply what you changed... e.g. if you incresed HR, take a little off the new suggestion for HR LTM.

okay, both are labeled with the years. ***1900-1949*** and 1950-1953

everything is set, if it asks to update links, say no. only update them if there is new data to use. (use the 1900-1949*** file for that)

the 1950-53 i did sloppy and fast, don't allow it to update the links when you open it up in openoffice calc. (if you use excel, hopefully it works, lol, otherwise download apache openoffice). it will be tougher to re-use this file, because of how i adjusted it.

keep the 1900 one for future use. put it and the 3 csv files in the same directory and each time you export new stats, copy them over those 3 files. once you open the spreadsheet it should ask if you want to update links... do so and you only have to adjust the table size on the worksheet to account for the correct amount of years.

since you sent 50 years, it's set for 50 years at the moment. add or remove entire rows within the table to adjust its size (add/remove 2 rows per year). never remove the first or last row of the table. highlight 1 row of data and 1 empty line and "Fill" down/up. use help for info on Fill function in your spreadsheet program if you are not familiar. it's that easy to adjust the size of the table... starting at a different year than year 1 of data is a bit trickier. highlight and drag the new 'starting' year to the first row, then fill down as described above. do not copy/paste, it will not work right. to start at an earlier date, click and drag the first year down X number of years you want to start earlier and fill up from there.

all formulas will adjust automatically if you do this process right. make a back up and play around with it until you are comfortable.

there are instructions on how to use it as well as a general strategy to adjusting LTMs. they more LTMs you adjust at one time, the less likely you are to get the results you want. the order in which i suggest setting them is not perfect.

there is some useful info (min/max/avg) from the Work worksheet that i should have on the input page (really should be "Input/Output"). if you want somem visual feedback on varous stats, make some line graphs.

NoOne · 10-24-2015, 05:21 PM

i attached an image of the results from a 100-year verification of the baseline i wanted. only 10 years of data is shown. this was my last run, so the suggested mods are meaningless. unless you do an infinite amount of years, there will always be a suggested change.

it took multiple long-term sims to hone down the LTMs i wanted. if you don't want to do this, just use autocalc. let it run overnight and make minor adjustments and continue until you get what you want.

Klew1986 · 10-24-2015, 09:09 PM

Thank you for this. I will take a look at it all, but might end up just adjusting as I proceed throughout the game.

RchW · 10-24-2015, 11:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoOne

i attached an image of the results from a 100-year verification of the baseline i wanted. only 10 years of data is shown. this was my last run, so the suggested mods are meaningless. unless you do an infinite amount of years, there will always be a suggested change.

it took multiple long-term sims to hone down the LTMs i wanted. if you don't want to do this, just use autocalc. let it run overnight and make minor adjustments and continue until you get what you want.

What is the point in generating meaningless mods?

NoOne · 10-26-2015, 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Klew1986

Thank you for this. I will take a look at it all, but might end up just adjusting as I proceed throughout the game.

you could hit autocalc many times and take an average of those returned values

that wouldn't take long and it would get you at a good starting point, i bet. if you like the state of some LTMs, write them down and just use this method for the ones you are unsure about.

your numbers were reasonable. in case you are not happy with the changes you make, make a backup of the league, too.

Klew1986 · 10-30-2015, 09:00 PM

If I'm just starting a new game, what should I do?

RonCo · 10-30-2015, 09:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoOne

about adding .001:
okay, this is all hypothetical: let's say K's for a 28t/156g league over 100 years averages to ~32,750. adding .001 to that LTM will result in 33,600 average over 100 years in second sim, or an 850 increase. if it were at 1.000 you would expect .001 of 33,000 (pretend it's the league total in settings), which is +33 SO's not +850 SO. it's so drastically different there is no explanation. you just have to roll with it.

Your point that the feature has no firm basis in something clearly physical is 100% correct. So your academic argument (which I have made myself many times) has basis.

However, the result you're describing has a very clear and mathematical explanation. It is because "Totals" are not "Totals." "Totals are ratio-based modifiers that create stats based on the talent levels in the world you're playing with. You do not need to just roll with it. In order to know that a .001 tweak of a modifier to strikeouts will do, however, you need to know the base League Total for AB and K--which can well be different from one league to another. If you know these values, the values of all the other core League Totals, and the average ratings of all the hitters and pitchers who are going to the plate, you can very accurately predict the output of the league without running any sims.

You're also correct that three seasons of sim isn't enough to guarantee perfection in doing what the feature says it's doing, but in the sloppy world of randomness, it generally serves the purpose of stabilizing statistical output so that all but the most mathematical purist are happy with the results. (In addition, I'm purely guessing that Markus and the gang do more than merely sim stats ... shrug).

Many things can cause issues with stats output. Player talents can vary from era to era, for example.

NoOne · 10-30-2015, 11:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Klew1986

If I'm just starting a new game, what should I do?

i'd use autocalc the first 20-30 years or so. you can just leave it on and let it do it's own thing, or you can click it a few times and take an average of the results.

as time goes, this will be less important. the only reason i'd suggest it at the beginning of a league is because the minor leaguers are not of the same ilk as the players created for your draft. if you don't have a full minor league system, ignore this. either way, those players will ceases to exist once enough time passes.

after that, maintain LTMs that make you happy.

NoOne · 10-30-2015, 11:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RonCo

Many things can cause issues with stats output. Player talents can vary from era to era, for example.

i don't see that as an issue. i see that as the major reason why stat output should change over time, in addition to random luck. also, that's the reason i want a baseline statistical environment. i don't want those lesser players in down offensive eras putting up puff numbers.

RonCo · 10-30-2015, 11:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoOne

i don't see that as an issue. i see that as the major reason why stat output should change over time, in addition to random luck. also, that's the reason i want a baseline statistical environment. i don't want those lesser players in down offensive eras putting up puff numbers.

As I said, I've made your argument at times in the past. I get it.

But there are many others who just want to see whatever they think of as "realistic" numbers. There are arguments that they may be "right" also ... especially if the player development engine gets a little wonky--as it most definitely been know to do on occasion.

Hitting the system with autocalc may well be akin to kicking your television set to make it work, but sometimes a kick does the job well enough.

One can make a very good argument that league totals (or their "modifiers") in real life have been steadily changing for a multitude of reasons both in control and outside the control of baseball leaders. I mean, it's quite likely that the differences you see in baseball output is not an effect of changing skill only.

As I said, though, your basic view of the concept of modifiers is right. It's just that a lot of people can get as much enjoyment and "accuracy" out of using autocalc as you do adhering to strict environmental stabilism.

That said, (and please read this in a non-targeted tone of voice) if you don't understand how changes in LTMs result in disproportionate changes in stats, you have more to dig into regarding how League Totals actually work. You really, really do not need to do mega-sims to get a good idea of what the output of the stats engine will come up with.

Klew1986 · 10-31-2015, 08:00 AM

I'm now working on testing with some LTM I got via a spreadsheet (forget which one). I'm going to sim a few years and see how numbers look.

NoOne · 10-31-2015, 06:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RonCo

That said, (and please read this in a non-targeted tone of voice) if you don't understand how changes in LTMs result in disproportionate changes in stats, you have more to dig into regarding how League Totals actually work. You really, really do not need to do mega-sims to get a good idea of what the output of the stats engine will come up with.

realistic numbers is irrelevant... each to their own on that.

the development engine is likely just a scapegoat for those that made their league in a way that causes the oddity that they are experiencing. it's more than likely human error and not the development engine itself.

if you have the actual math mapped out from the code, sure, you don't need long-term sims. however, a person is unlikely to have this information. understanding that it happens is very helpful to the context of what i was speaking about. i was trying to help someone recognize it when it happens. nothing more, nothing less

i've seen an average change drastically from 1, 5, 10, 50, 100 years... the effects of sample size are hardly debateable. you do need longer sims to do what i was explaining. again, i think context of the original post is being ignored or something... what i was explaining requires more than just a good idea of expected results.

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i appologize to the OP. i have a couple people who can't let go of a previous thread. i should have never replied to any of it, because it has very little to do with your thread and question.

e.g. RichW's reply "What is the point in generating meaningless mods?"

had he read the post he quoted it should have been obvious. instead, he is just taking one sentence out of context and using it as an argument (a logical fallacy). it is obviously personal for him at this point.

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dumbed down version of logical fallacies: https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/

10-24-2015, 05:21 PM	#50
NoOne Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,167	i attached an image of the results from a 100-year verification of the baseline i wanted. only 10 years of data is shown. this was my last run, so the suggested mods are meaningless. unless you do an infinite amount of years, there will always be a suggested change. it took multiple long-term sims to hone down the LTMs i wanted. if you don't want to do this, just use autocalc. let it run overnight and make minor adjustments and continue until you get what you want. Attached Images Last edited by NoOne; 10-24-2015 at 05:23 PM.

10-23-2015, 09:39 PM	#42
Klew1986 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Minnesota Posts: 2,722	Pitcher ERA is a little high right now. Not many sub 3.00 ERAs in seasons.

10-24-2015, 09:09 PM	#51
Klew1986 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Minnesota Posts: 2,722	Thank you for this. I will take a look at it all, but might end up just adjusting as I proceed throughout the game.

10-30-2015, 09:00 PM	#54
Klew1986 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Minnesota Posts: 2,722	If I'm just starting a new game, what should I do?

10-31-2015, 08:00 AM	#59
Klew1986 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Minnesota Posts: 2,722	I'm now working on testing with some LTM I got via a spreadsheet (forget which one). I'm going to sim a few years and see how numbers look.