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OOTP 16 - General Discussions Discuss the new 2015 version of Out of the Park Baseball here! |
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04-09-2015, 08:31 PM | #21 |
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My mind is far from "made up" but until a better explanation comes along I'm going with Occam's Razor. I mean if you can set the global bunting strategy to "very rarely" or whatever the lowest setting is and we assume that the "thousands of tests" verified that this setting works properly when simming out seasons then the only explanation for the AI bunting in the top of the 7th of a game it trails 3-1 with a guy on first and no outs with the best hitter on the team then there must be an issue with the AI logic as it pertains to playing games out. This would also explain why there appears to be so many WP/PB in played out games as compared to simming them. And coming up with a decent sample size for playing out games would be tedious at best since it takes about 15 minutes per game.
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04-09-2015, 09:00 PM | #22 | |
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Bunting in that situation is not good, I agree. But the conversation is based on simmed vs played out games. How do you know the AI isn't bunting in those situations in simmed games? Are you going through all of the logs? If so and you are finding data to support your feelings then you will get somewhere when you post it. Others will start looking closer to confirm your data or repudiate it. My argument based on Markus saying it's all the same, testing it, a beta team, and all of the users here that are exceptional statisticians is that if the AI is bunting in situations that don't makes sense in a played out game it is bunting in those same situations that don't make sense in simulated games. Either a flat out bug or more likely something that needs to be tweaked. For the sake of argument let's say you're right and there is an issue that is hard to find because nobody wants to go through hundreds\thousands of logs to prove it. In that case it won't get fixed, period. As I type this I am thinking I am remembering the bullpen issue you are talking about. One guy with a claim nobody else was seeing? How did he get that fixed? He dug in and tracked stats to prove it, posted his data which got others to look closer at data in their game (me included) and with all of that input Markus gave it a close look and it came down to a bug. It had nothing to do with there being two sim engines. Again your bunting issue could very well be a bug and if enough people see it, report it, and document it it will be dealt with. It's saying this bunting only happens in played out games because there are two sim engines is a tough one to swallow without data to back it up. Last edited by Sweed; 04-09-2015 at 09:02 PM. |
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04-09-2015, 09:10 PM | #23 |
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I have played out all 162 for several years and cannot recall a "best hitter bunts at a strange time"
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04-09-2015, 09:15 PM | #24 | |
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So I looked at my league wide totals and it appears that simming is not the problem. My AL teams are averaging about 15 sacrifice hits for the year while NL teams are at about 45. Those numbers are both lower than real life. That doesn't explain why I see such weird bunting strategies when playing a game out. So either these weird strategies also happen randomly when simming but are countered by lower bunting in other spots where the AI should be bunting or the simming frequency doesn't match the frequency seen when playing a game out. I see it so often that it makes me cry. |
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04-10-2015, 12:43 AM | #25 | |
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In my league NL teams are on a pace to avg 67 sac bunts (NL in 2014 avg was 59) and Al 38 sac bunts (AL in 2014 was 30). That's on normal. Those numbers are satisfactory to me with all of the variables. So when we look at numbers I think we have progressed to it not being a sim vs play issue as the numbers look pretty close to reality for both of us with you on very rarely and me on normal. I've shown in an earlier post my balk\wp numbers for played out games are fine too, another area of concern you brought up. I would submit there is no difference in bunting whether it's simmed or played out or for anything else for that matter as Markus has stated manyu times. IE it is the same engine for all games. The real issue is you seem to see a "weird strategy" that most(?) of us don't based on there not being a large amount of complaints which I would think we would see if it were wide spread. Why? I have no clue. So many variables in a game this complex. Could be as simple as a one season anomaly? |
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04-10-2015, 01:04 AM | #26 | ||
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And just this simple question, if lowering the bunting frequency to the lowest setting doesn't get rid of managers calling for a sac bunt in the 7th inning when down three runs then what the hell is it removing? Is it just randomly turning obvious bunting spots into non bunting spots? Is there any rhyme or reason to why and when the AI decides to sac bunt? |
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04-10-2015, 02:20 AM | #27 | |
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Yes the weird strategy (if it exists since very few seem to see it) is causing managers to bunt in the wrong situations to get the right totals. Whether the timing of the bunting is weird or not the strategy does indeed determine the total number of bunts. It has nothing to do with sim vs played out. IOW it does it to both human and AI unless the human manually intervenes. Again same engine for all teams. Your league is 33% behind real life sacs, it makes absolutely no difference if you played the game or the game was simmed. The engine is the same. You have no data to suggest otherwise only that you're convinced or you're sure. Sorry that's not enough you need data. I've tried to show you numbers that come from a league where my human team is right in line with the AI teams in all stats in a league that's been played, imported, and played over 11 versions of OOTP. It's not good enough? no problem. I'll continue to enjoy my game and leave you to find the answers you are looking for. You've seen "your" issues in over 100+ seasons and three versions of OOTP and virtually nobody has verified that they see it too. What does that tell you? Again I don't see the bunting in the 7th down 3 runs so very hard for me to comment. With regard to turning obvious bunting spots into non bunting spots, that's on you. You are the one changing to very rarely and "telling" the game you want less bunts. They have to be taken away from somewhere. I really do hope you find answers but I'm just afraid whatever is going on in your league is something that is unique to your league. When I saw your other thread on bunting I thought your comments were restricted to v16 (where I have seem some slight differences in P not bunting when it used to automatic, which IMHO may not be a bad thing, need more time to evaluate). But when you said it was over three versions I then have to assume it is something unique to you're league. Good luck. |
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04-10-2015, 02:24 AM | #28 | |
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04-10-2015, 04:03 AM | #29 |
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interesting post
Last edited by Dr.K; 04-10-2015 at 04:09 AM. |
04-10-2015, 05:43 AM | #30 |
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So I just saw another thing that I was sure would have been fixed. I mean it can't take much more than a simple "if/then" line of code, right? One out, bottom of the tenth, tie game, runners on first and second, hitter gets a base hit to left center, runner on 2nd trying for home to win it and the AI cuts off the throw to get the guy at third...
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04-10-2015, 10:41 AM | #31 | |||||
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If it's a failure to communicate I'm sorry. Here is what I see in our posts..
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You then sidetrack on the bunting as an example. You say "If I sim out a season then I'm sure that bunting will mirror real life", again suggesting different engines for play or sim. In later posts it's something like "well if the AI bunts that way in sims too it's broke". Yes, that is exactly what it would be if we all saw it. Not a separate engine issue but merely a strategy that would need to tweaked by Markus (some may say a bug). Quote:
Maybe I have it wrong on thinking you are saying there are separate AI's (#1 and #2), that's fine, it's just me trying to grasp an idea that doesn't make any sense. My argument is still the same even if it's two sim engines. Just sub when you watch a game its' sim engine #1 and when you play a game it's sim engine #2 for AI #1 and AI #2. Still makes no sense to code two engines when it's hard enough to code one. Quote:
Really I'm going to try to stay out of this now as I don't think there is going to be any "mind changing" going on here. Just wanted to clarify my points since you brought up "failure to communicate" which is something that can easily happen on a message board Again hope you find you're answers. |
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04-10-2015, 04:09 PM | #32 |
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By necessity there has to be some difference in the AI between straight simming and playing (or watching) the games. I can prove this by pointing you to the ability to play "pitch by pitch". Either simming weeks at a time does it "pitch by pitch" or it does it in "one pitch mode". Either way, that sim will differ from playing it out one way or another. So just on that basis alone, I don't think it is a stretch to wonder if they will differ in other ways as well.
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04-10-2015, 08:50 PM | #33 | |
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04-10-2015, 09:08 PM | #34 |
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04-10-2015, 09:28 PM | #35 |
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I think you missed my point.
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04-10-2015, 10:57 PM | #36 |
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04-10-2015, 11:17 PM | #37 |
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Show me the data. Without it your claims are not credible. Especially the WP/PB stats. The strategic issue you raise with with SH is easily provable through game logs. If good hitters are being asked to bunt in inappropriate base/out states, you should be able to show game logs that describe it.
I hate playing out games but decided to redo an old game save for the playoffs. The data is below. I hate playing out so many games; 36 in total which equals 72 for rate of occurrence calculations. See below. I have no real confidence in this data but since many claims are being made without any data at all, my little sample suggests that WP, SH, SF and PB all go down when games are played out. Home runs were up. I noticed that only because, my team the one I normally manage, gave up 19 of the 91 hit in 72 games. If I can play out 36 games in a few days so can you or anyone else. It may not be valid but it is better than claims of certainty where none can exist. I'm halfway through another season. If time permits I'll play every game in the upcoming playoffs and report. As it stands now there is evidence that rates of occurrence go down in certain key stats when games are played out. I have no confidence in this data but it's the only data we have. Your serve. Edit: I corrected SH occurrence (can't count) which increases the rate. Still doesn't tell us anything.
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Cheers RichW #stopthestupid “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.” Frank Wilhoit Last edited by RchW; 04-11-2015 at 12:38 AM. |
04-10-2015, 11:24 PM | #38 | |
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04-11-2015, 12:35 AM | #39 | ||
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Cheers RichW #stopthestupid “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.” Frank Wilhoit |
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04-11-2015, 01:37 AM | #40 | |
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Well if the scores are determined before the game is played it really doesn't matter what occurs during the actual play as long as the play is within the general parameters of the game of baseball. In other words, the score isn't the end result of the play but the other way around. If true then playing out the game is really a form of 'active reading'. The ground is starting to shake! It must be Lou Gehrig and Wolf! 'If you question they will come' from the novel Field of Screams. Toast |
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