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Old 04-30-2015, 08:39 AM   #61
italyprof
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I see some of the logic of the sabermetrics lineup idea - like putting the best hitters up front to get more AB. BUT...just as some traditional ideas, like a good bunter at no. 2 in the lineup are from the deadball era (I don't think power hitters in 4th and 5th spots are, more likely from the 20s, 30s through the 60s to get HR power there), I now think that many sabermetrics, well metrics, are based on the steroid era realities.

When everyone in the lineup was a HR threat, and high OBP was pretty common, getting the best OBP/HR people up more often made some sense. But things are back to small ball now in the post-steroid era, and I wonder. Take a look an older season from another pitchers' era like say, 1965 and you find the pennant winning teams with players like Lou Johnson batting fourth with maybe 12 home runs on the season. So you needed an offense that could move runners over.

Also, whereas everyone - me included - bought into the OBP is almost everything philosophy, I am now not so sure it is a strategy - rather it might be an effect of something else. Of what? of the high HR rates in the steroid era. So pitchers pitched more carefully, batters could be more picky and so OBP went up. That did not happen in the 1960s because pitchers, less concerned about HRs, threw more strikes and so walked fewer batters, and so OBP was also low. That required a more nuanced offensive strategy. So bunting was counter-productive in the late 90s, but was not so in the 1960s or the deadball era and may not be anymore in our era either.And if you only have one or two guys that CAN hit the ball out of the park, you want them to come up with runners on base, so again hitting them 4th or 5th makes sense.
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Old 04-30-2015, 09:03 AM   #62
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Are things really back to "small ball"? I don't see too many times where a team like Boston is sac bunting in the first inning after the leadoff guy gets on. And your logic of wanting your home run hitters batting 4th or 5th so they have a better chance of being up with guys on only makes sense if you have higher OBP guys to hit ahead of them and get on base.
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Old 04-30-2015, 09:12 AM   #63
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If the league has DH, then I set my lineup by height

If the league doesn't have DH, then I set my alphabetical order
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Old 04-30-2015, 05:06 PM   #64
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remember this a game simulation and not real life. some of the math that applies to MLB lineups may or may not apply to a video game for various reasons. use it as a starting point, but not the word of god.

i've used a great base stealer to win more than a few games. unless you place the base stealer in front of a guy with a consistently god-like ops, you can steal without worrying about IBB except in certain situations. as long as you understand when you will likely take a IBB you can steal any other time and it can be very useful.

i don't steal with middling basestealers. if they cannot maintain at least 80% success, i set their player strategy for stealing to zero. i still have it set to 'adjust to team strategy.' for the most part they never steal except for some players who seem to have a hardcoded tendency. e.g. miguel cabrera will always try 5-10 times regardless of settings - this is accurate to real life as opposed to a bug. i've even used 'override team strategy' and he still attempts to steal even with it set to zero.

I avoid pull hitters, but that's not set in stone - results and consistency are paramount. i like guys that are generally as good against lhp as rhp, because opposing managers lose that matchup advantage - especially late in a game. if i have two exceptionally slow players, i try not to bat them in succession to minimize double plays - sometimes that is not an option.

Line-up:

1. 300/400/450 - 850 (base stealer a bonus, can have lower slug with high stealing ability, but should be at least a perennial 800 slug player. this guy should be on 2nd base in the first inning with no outs very often)

2. 300/370/500 - 870 (35-40 doubles and consistently 20+ hr. with a HoF team, those numbers approaches 45-50/30 because of plate appearences.)

3. 300/370/550+ - 920 (35-40 doubles, 30+ hr guy more with a HoF team as above)

4. 300/350/550+ - 900 (35-40 doubles, 30+ hr guy) - my 3-4 guys are typically 1.000ops HoF no brainers.

5. 270ish / 320+ / 550+ - 870+ (less than 130k/year, league average obp)

6. 270ish / 320+ / 550+ - 870+ (less than 130k/year, league average obp)

7-9 - generally developing players. a C misses games, so i'd rather not have him be a 1-6 hitter. that is only relevant during the regular season. i prefer a great arm and good catching ability over his offense. if he has power, then my lineup is 7-deep. if i am developing a lead-off hitter, he bats nineth.


some ideas: a good obp 1-9 means you will burn through the opposing team's starting pitching. the more complete the hitter is the more consistent they are.

in general i don't like a player who is less than 50 of 100 eye/patience or avoid k's (gold color or better - can be a bit lower than 50). if your 3-4-5-6 hitters have too good of an eye, that will impact their rbi and power numbers by lowering their season ABs (that might be less of a team concern and more selfish thing for those players, but i want to break hr records! - more abs, less walks = more hr).

i've tested that last part on a 'super' player. i would get more hits, hr, rbi with a player that was 250's but only 140eye/patience compared to an all 250 batter. the numbers seemed at their best when getting 100 or so BB. (this was ootp 15)

Last edited by NoOne; 04-30-2015 at 05:09 PM.
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Old 04-30-2015, 06:06 PM   #65
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Given sufficiently talented personnel, and opportunity to employ it before injuries cull the group by April 10, I try to go:

1) High OBP and highest speed
2) High AVG, OBP, preferrably batting from the other side as 1)
3) High AVG, SLG (disregarding OBP; there are supposed to be two men on, a walk doesn't achieve a lick)
4) Highest SLG
5) High SLG
6) Most OBP and / or speed not yet pencilled in
7) Better remaining AVG
8) The sorry remains
9) Pitcher. No exceptions.

Additional notes:

* I find that I tend to set my lineup around the #3 and #4 batters. Those spots are filled first. This season (only 25 games in), my first baseman leads the team in all slash line stats, homers, and RBIs, except OBP, where he trails by only a few points. That doesn't mean I bat him second. He is slotted in fourth. I tend to be really picky with the #3 slot, too, and once I have found a guy to go there, he will stick there for many years. I love consistency in the #3 hole, and in my dynasty I may have covered 23 of 26+ seasons with just two guys batting out of the #3 hole, one after the other (countless injuries to them notwithstanding).

* Order may change depending on hot/cold streaks, and often depending on handedness. You can rarely avoid having several right-handed batters in a row against right-handed pitching, but I really try to stay away from lining up left-handed batters against a southpaw. Also, since my set-in-stone #3 guys were both right-handed batters, I have often been looking out for slugging left-handers for the #4 slot. A right-hander will do (one such holds the franchise mark for single season home runs), but a left-hander might give a better overall result when you know who's batting third anyway.

* Batting the pitcher eighth kills the second inning. Unless you put up a big number in the first, or the opposing pitcher shuts you down, your pitcher tends to come to bat with a man in scoring position and two outs in the second inning, which I find highly undesireable.

I find that the OOTP AI does not always issue an intentional walk when they face the #8 guy with a runner in scoring position and two outs the first time through the order. I know I certainly don't unless the matchup is really bad for my pitcher.

* My ravaged team currently employs a sufficient number of placeholder batters as to render a proper lineup unnecessary. Setting the lineup is best achieved with dice, and a bottle of Jack Daniels and a box of Kleenex close by.
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Last edited by Westheim; 04-30-2015 at 06:08 PM.
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Old 05-15-2015, 07:34 PM   #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Questdog View Post
I think that is another thread. But I will agree that the state of the art of bunting currently in the major leagues is certainly disgraceful. However, the concept of bunting is not disgraceful, if that is what you meant.
I should say the misuse of bunting is disgraceful. It's useful when you absolutely need a run in the late innings. Otherwise, swing the bat and play for more runs.

Last edited by Lockdog; 05-15-2015 at 07:43 PM.
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Old 05-15-2015, 08:52 PM   #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NoOne View Post
remember this a game simulation and not real life. some of the math that applies to MLB lineups may or may not apply to a video game for various reasons. use it as a starting point, but not the word of god.
The math that suggests certain lineups should work better is absolutely applicable to a simulation like OOTP. Probably more so than in real life.

FWIW OOTP is the antithesis of a "video" game.
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Old 05-15-2015, 10:35 PM   #68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ezpkns34 View Post
If the league has DH, then I set my lineup by height

If the league doesn't have DH, then I set my alphabetical order
DH league
1 - shortest player - he needs to be able to hide behind the fielders
2 - average height - having a normal sized guy after someone like Altuve may intimidate the pitcher
3 - tallest player - his long arms and long swing can help get in the way when the tiny lead off hitter is stealing home
4 - second shortest - just to mess with the pitcher

5-8 - repeat the pattern of 1-4 - if possible, sneak you short lead off hitter back into the lineup at #5 - he is so tiny the ump may not see him
9 - midg, er... little person
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Old 05-15-2015, 11:18 PM   #69
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RamMan12 View Post
The model I use if doing the lineup on my own is:

1st: high OBP, preferably good base stealer
2nd: high OBP and AVG
3rd: best overall hitter
4th: best power hitter
5th: 2nd best power or overall hitter
6th-8th: best remaining hitter
9th: pitcher or average hitter that is either fast or prone to getting on base

If I play with a DH, I like to make sure that my #9 hitter is at least decent so he's not an automatic out. This leads to your leadoff guy getting up more and setting up the middle of the lineup with guys on base more often.

Also, try to avoid having 3+ righties or lefties hit in a row. It makes it easier for the opponent to get the right matchups in relief situations.
This exactly
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Old 05-16-2015, 11:22 PM   #70
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Using a combo of traditional and my own approach, I recommend the following. Keep in mind that the first inning is the only inning you can really determine how your order starts and thus, traditionally the first inning is when most runs are scored in baseball.

1) High on-base pct. Traditionally a speed guy but if you don't play the speed game and have a guy that gets on over .400, it won't hurt to put him there. Top base stealers usually hit leadoff.

2) I've noticed the AI puts high contact (few strikeouts) guys in the second spot. I assume this is for the hit and run. Some people like guys who can bunt and work the bat with contact as well. This also should be a table setter (a guy with a high on base percentage and maybe speed as well). Often, people will bat a lefty second as there is a hole at first if the leadoff guy gets on and the first baseman has to hold him. Lefties often naturally pull balls that way.

3. This - and your cleanup guy in the 4th spot - should be your two best hitters (slugging percentage and batting avg.). Some people like a faster guy here and the slower of the two in the fourth spot. I prefer the reverse. One theory is it gets the speedier guys on for your cleanup hitter. However, studies have shown the third batter is the least like to ever leadoff an inning*so I don't mind a slow guy here.

4. See above.

5. Some people prefer from here on to have your best remaining hitters in order. However, studies show the fifth hitter is the most likely to lead off the second inning (as generally, on avg. you will get one base runner on in the first). I like a high on base guy or a guy with speed but who still has some power.

6-8. From here it is a matter of judging chemistry. You might want to mix lefties and righties so that an opponent can't bring a reliever and create havoc if you are platooning guys.

9. This comes down to whether you are in a DH league or not. Without a DH, you should think of the batting order as linear (top to bottom). Your pitcher hits ninth and maybe if you are fortunate you have a guy in the eighth spot who can draw some walks and keep innings alive so that the pitcher won't lead off an inning too much. If you are in a DH league, you might think about the batting order as more cyclical and have a guy here who is a poor-man's version of your leadoff hitter. If he can steal some bases, this is a good spot to play the running game as, more likely than not, the guys at the top of your order don't have much power.

Of course, these are all ideals and you will likely have to make compromises. Always keep in mind though that as the season goes on, the guys at the top will have the most at bats. Don't waste the second batter with a typical guy if you've got a star that has some of the desirables. A lot of baseball managers stick the speedy but*avg. hitting second basemen there because he can bunt and hit and run. It's a waste.

I'm not 100 pct. certain but there also is some suggestion that, as in real life, the AI will have pitchers evaluate who is next in the order. So, if a guy isn't hitting like he should but is drawing walks, it may be that the pitchers you face aren't scared of the guy after him. If you want a guy to get more good pitches to hit, have a good batter after them. Of course, this isn't always possible. But if a guy isn't hitting well, move him around in the order to shake things up.

Last edited by SR000; 05-16-2015 at 11:45 PM.
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Old 05-17-2015, 12:11 AM   #71
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I prefer to put the best two hitters in the 2nd and 3rd spots, so that they'll get more plate appearances over the course of an entire season.
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Old 05-17-2015, 09:36 AM   #72
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I fill mine in this order,
4th-highest slugging pct
1st - highest OBP unless it is #2 Slug, the #2 OBP
from here the highest remaining
2nd - wOBA
5th - slugging
3rd - slugging
however if #5 is lower BA by 20 or so pts then swap 3 and 5
6th - BA, give weight to speed/stealing if BA's are close
9th OBP
7th and 8th- descending wOBA unless non DH then pitcher is 8th
...
OR
just go descending wOBA ,
......
all in all its a crapshoot and I go with a lineup from OD, no changes till 150 AB's or so, the change kust about every sim in online lg's
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Old 05-17-2015, 09:55 AM   #73
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I've been batting the pitcher 8th as Joe Maddon has done with the Cubs this year.

Leadoff man is pretty easy IMHO. Good OBP and base stealer.
#2 hitter should have some speed, but really should be a good contact hitter that doesn't strike out a lot, although there are exceptions.
#3 hitter has good OBP, walks a lot and has good power.
#4 is your cleanup hitter and normally a pretty easy choice.
#5 I like having a guy with some speed here so he can stay out of the double play, also some power and good OBP is good.
#6-#7 once you get down in the order you should select your weakest hitters for these spots.
#8 is where I hit the pitcher. During interleague play, I'll put one of the weaker hitters here.
#9 is where I hit someone with a good OBP and some speed, almost a second leadoff man.

Something that Jim Leyland used to do with the Pirates is have his lineups almost exclusively left-right-left-right-left-right-left-right against right-handed pitchers.

Also, I like to acquire switch-hitters whenever I can because they give you so many more options off the bench or in the lineup. They can stay in the game to face lefties and righties in most cases. I'm thinking of the Cardinals of the 1980s when Whitey Herzog was manager. That team was loaded with switch-hitters (Herr, Ozzie, Pendleton, McGee, Coleman, Oquendo, etc.)
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Old 10-14-2015, 11:35 AM   #74
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Question:
My 2nd best hitter is also my best power guy.

He's mainly hit in the 3-hole most of his career with my online team.

However, over the past 2 seasons, I've developed 3 really good on-base hitters.
One has some pop (nearing 20 HR's in only his 3rd full season).
And all three have great speed and baserunning/stealing skills.

I was thinking of putting those guys in the top 3 (with the 20HR guy at #3) with my powerhitting, run producing stud at 4.

Would that affect his production at all?

This guy hits 40+ every single year and he's easily on pace for breaking the leagues all time HR record.
I just don't want to mess that up for him.
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Old 10-14-2015, 02:01 PM   #75
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I've found that some players seem to hit noticably better in one spot in the lineup. I was thinking of emailing Joe Maddon and telling him to use Starlin Castro in the #2 spot, as he went from just average to winning the NL batting title for me when I did that! Joe seems to be doing OK without my help so far though

I like to change my lineup around, move hot hitters up, alternate lefty/righty hitters, etc but I don't like to move a guy that seems to excel when I put him in a certain spot - so I'd be wary of moving a very productive guy, unless he happens to be going through a cold patch, when change is probably a good idea to help work through the slump anyway.

On the subject of lineups though, I find that the AI seems to have an inordinate fondness with putting a Catcher in the lead-off spot, which is a decision I find utterly bizarre! Anyone know why it does that?
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Old 10-14-2015, 02:35 PM   #76
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I have a sane formula: Batting lead off is a guy with good contact and eye and speed, number is about the same, power a plus, third is power and contact, fourth is A-Rod with out the fake stuff, fifth is like the third, speed is a plus for any of these guys, sixth and seventh nice guys with some pop, good eyes and contact, eighth is good contact. Ninth better pitch a good game!
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Old 10-14-2015, 02:52 PM   #77
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Some things I want to point out:

Fast guys should be followed by lefties, as on a single to right, they may go 1st to 3rd. So if you have the choice of 2 leadoff men, R and L, let the lefty hit 2nd. If both are righties, spray hitters behind pull hitters.

But avoid clustering LHB or RHB. If your #3 hitter is a lefty, that occasional 1st to 3rd is not enough to offset the problem of a lefty reliever having the ability to take out both #2 and #3. If there's a righty inbetween, he can get only one guy before pitching to a righty or getting pulled.

Oh and never, never, follow the stupid idea that pitchers should bat 9th.
You score in baseball if your team manages to tie together positive events before the opposition gets 3 outs. Walks, hits, dingers, whatever, you only score if your teammates do walk and hit before and after you. Or in case of a HR, you only score big if there are guys on base.

So by having your pitcher bat 9th, you basically say: I'm giving my top of the order, the guys who I think will get me the most runs in the span of 3 outs, only 2 outs to work with most of the time.
Give the top of the order the hitter with a decent OBP they deserve, not the worst guy of the team, in front of them.
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Old 10-15-2015, 07:01 AM   #78
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an optimal batting order will only produce ~26 more runs in 162 games compared to the worst batting order you can make. so, don't fret too much. no matter what you do, you likely will not create the worst possible lineup no matter what your strategy is. even if you are in the middle, 13 runs over 162 games isn't something to get crazy about.

go ahead and skip everyhting i type below and go directly to the links and form your own ideas based on facts, but certainly do not limit your research to these three resources.

beware: math always adds up, but it is not garuanteed to logically fit the realty of baseball. the pdf url does a good job of highlighting some examples of this when he raises questions about the methods of others' research.

alot of the intangibles people swear by are simply not justified by results. however, they can be important in very specific and extreme situations. only when the most important factors are all equal or drastically different should you use the intangibles as a deciding factor.

***********************

nothing is black and white. it's all a sliding scale. the trick is understanding how large a difference is required for a break even point. e.g. speed, baserunnign skills and obp for a leadoff hitter. obp carries a much larger weight, so the other factors must be extreme to be used as a reason to replace a higher obp player that is slower and doesn't steal. (this assumes neither are power hitters)

it's not as simple as the examples i give below using rbi opportunities for your sluggers. you'll want to use multiple concepts and weigh each benefit relative to what the slot in the order entails over the course of a 162 game season.

**********************

with unlimited funds you want power guys that can hit 1-9. so it really comes down to maximizing the cash available to spend reltaive to your organization's budget constraints.

***********************

each step down in the order you get ~2-3% less plate appearances - if i remember correctly. it's readily available from a google searach. 1 dropped to 9 is about ~22% less PA.

***********************

i'd suggest researching things like rbi opportunities per lineup slot. it will show you where to maximize XBH batters and where your OBP guys should go. 3-4-5 are the best slots for players that have xbh capabilities (rbi producers), therefore you will realize a greater return on your dollar for those types of hitters in those slots since they cost more than obp guys.

4 will get the most chances, #3 and #5 are similar in opportunity, but 3 is different. e.g. he will realize more benefits from baserunning skills and taking walks more so than #5. in general the guy with more holes in his game goes lower in the order - all relative to the hitting role ofc (e.g. table setter or power hitter).

#2, #6, #7 are middling rbi producers and if you can afford to fill them with power hitters, do so. #2 shoudl be more rounded, while 6/7 can have holes in their game.

1,8,9 are wretched for rbi opps. paying 20-30mill/year for a rbi producer in those slots is not making the most of your money, but do it if you can afford it, as long as they can still also provide the most important factor in those slots (e.g. leadoff = obp).

*****************

speed is nice, but it isn't a major factor. do not weigh it heavily. in some rare instances it might be enough to overcome a slight difference in OBP between two players. baserunning skills are good for table setters, but again it has to be so significant to outweight the benefits of increased obp when comparing two players. intangibles can be used to place players with similar important abilities relative to slot.

the idea of 'protection' is a baseball myth. there are numerous sites that highlight the difference in avg/slug etc required to make an IBB worthwhile. an exception would be made for a player like Barry Bonds-type or Babe Ruth-type is followed by a dumpy player, but not many people fit that description. the math is out there you can look it up. don't take my word for it.

learn what each slot in the order actually does, and you will be able to make a 'best' lineup your current roster by maximizing each slot's strength relative to producing runs and within your organization's budget constraints.

*********************************************

PDF in the first URL: if the link is scary it should be the second google results for "best batting order bloop"

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...05039540,d.eXY

The Effect of Batting Order on R and RBI Production | Smart Fantasy Baseball

Lineup Position Impact on Runs and RBI

Last edited by NoOne; 10-15-2015 at 07:14 AM.
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Old 10-17-2015, 02:11 PM   #79
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I use real-life batting lineups for my (current) replay. For the games that were rained out in real-life I go by the batter vs pitcher stats on ESPN, Yahoo! and Baseball Reference. I also take into account hot/cold streaks, lefty vs righty matchups and platoons, etc.
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