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Old 06-02-2016, 01:27 AM   #61
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Originally Posted by ShaneCarson View Post
And every study used the same model and worked off the assumption of the previous literature.

Listen, I know it's really hard for you to understand that what is published isn't gospel. You stated in the Ty Cobb thread that you would trust anything "If the source was a well-researched effort by a university faculty member." The fact of the matter is, those people are wrong about stuff a whole lot more often than you'd think. And there is nothing wrong about them being wrong. That's the point of research. But as someone who does this for a living, the amount of lazy work I see from university faculty members and beyond is insane. It's publish or perish. No one gets famous doing diagnostic testing on models and finding out they were wrong the entire time because the model is rife with endogeneity.

I'm sure we all read MLBTradeRumors. How did everyone feel about their predicting Tommy John study they posted by Bradley Woodrum? Because I can tell you the entire thing was garbage. He used OLS so his coefficients have absolutely zero meaning whatsoever. He should have used a probit model at the very least so the coefficients were the probabilities of needing Tommy John. Or the fact that he used ERA- as a dependent variable which would most likely be correlated with hard pitches, another dependent variable.

My point being, you do not know the person behind these studies all the time. You also don't know the person who is posting behind the usernames on this forum. I find the rate at which you attack everyone on here incredibly rude and I have no idea how this forum has dealt with it for as long as they have.

And you can come back to have the last word, as you are wont to do. I've said my piece.
Oh, I will. You missed the adjective phrase "well-researched," didn't you? Or did you just fail to understand it? Sure, there is bad research, but I clearly wasn't talking about any of that, and you missed that vital point in your rush to search for any evidence you could find that I was gullible. Surprise, I'm not. I once disproved a seminal work in my field because it used a really bad data interpretation method. Surprise.

I do know some of the people behind the studies. Surprise. I write and have works published myself, including a chapter of a book last month. Surprise.

You misread, misinterpret, and misjudge me and then attack me on that false basis. You berate me for not knowing what others might be when you have zero idea what I am. You publicly wonder how I can be tolerated here. And yet you dare to call me rude? Wow. Even I wouldn't go there.

I stand with the studies, the results of which are incorporated in the game. Your side stands against every single published study, THE BOOK, sabermetric experts, and the game itself, without a single shred of evidence, because your side just doesn't like the penalty and because your side thinks your opinions on the subject surely must be Gospel while all of the studies on it surely must be wrong. Sorry, but that's so utterly bogus as to be off the charts. You call me rude but you would never catch me claiming a series of published research studies were false without having damning, conclusive evidence in my possession - which, of course, none of you do.

You think that I'm rude. Perhaps, but I still have better manners than you do and will not reply in kind.
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Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn View Post
Well, the average OOTP user...downloads the game, manages his favorite team and that's it.
According to OOTP itself, OOTP MLB play (modern and historical) outnumbers OOTP fictional play three to one.

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Old 06-02-2016, 01:49 AM   #62
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merely pointing out limitations and flaws of their research
Baseball does not provide for laboratory conditions. You can't have a control group. Testing any hypothesis is a bitch. Given that, virtually every baseball study ever done has limitations and flaws, and that is likely to remain true as long as the game exists in the present form.

But if we stopped relying on studies with limitations and flaws half of science would vanish overnight, the FDA would never approve another drug for human use, and sabermetrics as we know it would not exist.

We live in an imperfect world, where perfect knowledge of anything is virtually impossible. We'd really like to know where an electron was and what its velocity was at the same instant, but we can't. Nor can we know whether Schrödinger's cat is dead or not. That doesn't stop us from studying quantum mechanics and building supercolliders and supercomputers; we make the very best decisions we can based on what we know, which means that when we have to make a decision in the face of imperfect knowledge that we have to - and have no other logical choice but to - go with what is most likely correct. And when every known study says the same thing, that is the very definition of what is most likely correct.

Which is exactly what OOTP did with the penalty.
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Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn View Post
Well, the average OOTP user...downloads the game, manages his favorite team and that's it.
According to OOTP itself, OOTP MLB play (modern and historical) outnumbers OOTP fictional play three to one.

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Old 06-02-2016, 04:05 AM   #63
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Well, in order to keep this thread from being a total misfire due to TheWolfs lack of discussion ability, I'll bring something to the thread what he failed to do in a bucketload of posts: some arguments from the data why the PH/DH penalty does exist.

-The PH penalty is supposed to be equal for pretty much all players. This will include some, whose bench/starting appearances are not form related. Especially platoon starting teams and "pure" bench players, strictly worse no matter how on form than the starter in his position, won't get starts because they're on form, they'll get starts because either a certain handed pitcher starts or someone is injured. So if there was really no penalty, there should be an amount of players performing similarly as PH or starter.

Then again, there are some players who will normally start no matter what, only be benched because of fatigue or injury. Those should perform consistently worse, but they don't.

- Though the DH penalty varies, no one has been found who actually beats it and bats better as DH. There are at least some primarily DHes, who will field occasionally without any performance related reasons. If there is truly no DH penalty, at least by random chance some should be better as DH than as a starter.

However, this study also overlooks the full-time DHes, who will only bat in interleague games. Those have been removed, and those DHes will be the ones who should be most affected by having to field. A David Ortiz- kind of guy might be the one who bats better as DH, yet he falls through the cracks of the study.

Back to my usual argumentation side:
The penalty against starters and relievers again was letting me think: It's pretty obvious why people bat worse as pinch-hitters against starters: You pinch-hit later in the game, and if a starter is still pitching late in the game, he's on a good day. So you'll not profit as pinch-hitter from that 3 innings of 5 run ball stinker the starter had, which would raise your average, but you'll be victimized by the 7 2/3 innings shutout.

But however teams tend not to pinch-hit when they are ahead, and conversly you tend to pinch-hit when you are behind. This is where opposing teams have however their best relievers pitching. This could explain a consistent difference in batting average, as everyone will bat worse against setupmen and closers compared to long relievers.
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Old 06-02-2016, 04:05 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by The Wolf View Post
Baseball does not provide for laboratory conditions. You can't have a control group. Testing any hypothesis is a bitch. Given that, virtually every baseball study ever done has limitations and flaws, and that is likely to remain true as long as the game exists in the present form.
Some things in sabermetrics can be considered absolutely proven, such as that on-base percentage is far more useful than batting average in player evaluation. That's partially because that conclusion doesn't rely on quasi-experimental studies alone, but has a lot of math and logic to back it up.

Some things have been shown by enough studies, with alternative explanations sufficiently accounted for, that I think it is fair to consider them proven, such that a hitter gains an advantage by seeing the same pitcher multiple times in a game, and that that is especially true if he sees the same pitch from the same pitcher.

I think the PH penalty more likely exists than not, but can't be considered proven. I don't fault OOTP for including it, because somewhere along the line the devs have to use their opinions of what best represents reality, and while including it makes some unproven assumptions, not including it would also make some unproven assumptions. They're forced to take a side, and I'm fine with their decision to choose the side that I think is more likely to be right. I'd also be fine with the opposite decision, because nothing has yet been proven. The devs have to make some assumptions, their assumptions are at the very least defensible, so I'm fine with them.

But saying it's absolutely certain goes beyond what I think current evidence can justify, and hostility toward those who doubt the evidence and suggest alternative hypotheses, I find not to be called for.
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Old 06-02-2016, 10:23 AM   #65
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Originally Posted by Number4 View Post
Well, in order to keep this thread from being a total misfire due to TheWolfs lack of discussion ability, I'll bring something to the thread what he failed to do in a bucketload of posts: some arguments from the data why the PH/DH penalty does exist.

-The PH penalty is supposed to be equal for pretty much all players. This will include some, whose bench/starting appearances are not form related. Especially platoon starting teams and "pure" bench players, strictly worse no matter how on form than the starter in his position, won't get starts because they're on form, they'll get starts because either a certain handed pitcher starts or someone is injured. So if there was really no penalty, there should be an amount of players performing similarly as PH or starter.

Then again, there are some players who will normally start no matter what, only be benched because of fatigue or injury. Those should perform consistently worse, but they don't.

- Though the DH penalty varies, no one has been found who actually beats it and bats better as DH. There are at least some primarily DHes, who will field occasionally without any performance related reasons. If there is truly no DH penalty, at least by random chance some should be better as DH than as a starter.

However, this study also overlooks the full-time DHes, who will only bat in interleague games. Those have been removed, and those DHes will be the ones who should be most affected by having to field. A David Ortiz- kind of guy might be the one who bats better as DH, yet he falls through the cracks of the study.

Back to my usual argumentation side:
The penalty against starters and relievers again was letting me think: It's pretty obvious why people bat worse as pinch-hitters against starters: You pinch-hit later in the game, and if a starter is still pitching late in the game, he's on a good day. So you'll not profit as pinch-hitter from that 3 innings of 5 run ball stinker the starter had, which would raise your average, but you'll be victimized by the 7 2/3 innings shutout.

But however teams tend not to pinch-hit when they are ahead, and conversly you tend to pinch-hit when you are behind. This is where opposing teams have however their best relievers pitching. This could explain a consistent difference in batting average, as everyone will bat worse against setupmen and closers compared to long relievers.
That's what's called an opinion.
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Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn View Post
Well, the average OOTP user...downloads the game, manages his favorite team and that's it.
According to OOTP itself, OOTP MLB play (modern and historical) outnumbers OOTP fictional play three to one.

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Old 06-02-2016, 10:31 AM   #66
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Some things in sabermetrics can be considered absolutely proven, such as that on-base percentage is far more useful than batting average in player evaluation. That's partially because that conclusion doesn't rely on quasi-experimental studies alone, but has a lot of math and logic to back it up.

Some things have been shown by enough studies, with alternative explanations sufficiently accounted for, that I think it is fair to consider them proven, such that a hitter gains an advantage by seeing the same pitcher multiple times in a game, and that that is especially true if he sees the same pitch from the same pitcher.

I think the PH penalty more likely exists than not, but can't be considered proven. I don't fault OOTP for including it, because somewhere along the line the devs have to use their opinions of what best represents reality, and while including it makes some unproven assumptions, not including it would also make some unproven assumptions. They're forced to take a side, and I'm fine with their decision to choose the side that I think is more likely to be right. I'd also be fine with the opposite decision, because nothing has yet been proven. The devs have to make some assumptions, their assumptions are at the very least defensible, so I'm fine with them.

But saying it's absolutely certain goes beyond what I think current evidence can justify, and hostility toward those who doubt the evidence and suggest alternative hypotheses, I find not to be called for.
"And when every known study says the same thing, that is the very definition of what is most likely correct." Yeah, that's certainty all right. (Hint: that was sarcasm.)

And the hostility is towards people who have the gall to believe that their personal opinions should somehow have weight, and prefer them to real studies. I don't care for them in them in science, I don't care for them in engineering, and I certainly don't care for them in sabermetrics.
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Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn View Post
Well, the average OOTP user...downloads the game, manages his favorite team and that's it.
According to OOTP itself, OOTP MLB play (modern and historical) outnumbers OOTP fictional play three to one.

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Old 06-02-2016, 06:06 PM   #67
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That's what's called an opinion.
I'd call it a plausible alternative hypothesis that, to my knowledge, has yet to be studied.
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Old 06-02-2016, 06:38 PM   #68
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I am of the opinion that opinions should not be tolerated, well other than my own of course.
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Old 06-02-2016, 06:54 PM   #69
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And the hostility is towards people who have the gall to believe that their personal opinions should somehow have weight, and prefer them to real studies. I don't care for them in them in science, I don't care for them in engineering, and I certainly don't care for them in sabermetrics.
you are the only one saying somethign with 100% certainty. i'm pretty sure the only static presented to your opinions was that the research is far from complete and has potentially severe limitations due to methedology.

from the article you linked:

"Again, keep in mind that the sample sizes are small enough such that the true difference between the starter PH penalty and reliever PH penalty could be the same or could even be reversed."

"Even if we are statistically confident that an effect exists (or doesn’t), we are are usually quite uncertain as to the magnitude of that effect."

even the writer says the same things himself. and once again i'd like to point out he's a lawyer setting up some bad math

i can show you statistics and make them say anythign i want... and i wouldn't be lying.
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Old 06-04-2016, 11:07 PM   #70
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"Michael Lichtman has been doing sabermetrics research for over seventeen years and was the senior analyst for a Major League Baseball team."

But do go on defaming him and spouting wild opinions - and, yes, that's all they are, no matter how much you try to reinforce each other. It's become great entertainment. But you have every right to be wrong, so have at it: I enjoy a good laugh.

Every time you play the game, remember: the penalty is part of the game, and whenever you call for a pinch-hitter and have to suffer it, think of me laughing.
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Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn View Post
Well, the average OOTP user...downloads the game, manages his favorite team and that's it.
According to OOTP itself, OOTP MLB play (modern and historical) outnumbers OOTP fictional play three to one.

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Old 06-04-2016, 11:28 PM   #71
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Could you do one -****ing- comment which is about the subject being discussed, instead of doing ad hominem attacks against people who disagree with the data being holy and untouchouchable, or conversly saying that the study in question is infallible because of the people doing it?
I'm not that easy to rile up, but you are doing it quite well. I sincerly hope that there will be a study about the subject sometimes, because I'd bet my life savings that they might find DH and PH penalties, but they sure as hell won't be identical with the findings found in the biased data.
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Old 06-04-2016, 11:41 PM   #72
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I already told you: you have an opinion, and so does everyone else. I don't agree with yours nor do I see any value to it. The studies agree, the penalty is in the game, so end of story at this end, but if you want to keep posturing don't let my lack of interest in it stop you. Have you considered maybe doing your own study and putting on, say, FanGraphs? If Shane is correct uptopic that almost anything can get published maybe you will end up a Hero of Sabermetrics. Best of luck to you.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn View Post
Well, the average OOTP user...downloads the game, manages his favorite team and that's it.
According to OOTP itself, OOTP MLB play (modern and historical) outnumbers OOTP fictional play three to one.

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Old 06-05-2016, 12:30 AM   #73
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Talking

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"Michael Lichtman has been doing sabermetrics research for over seventeen years and was the senior analyst for a Major League Baseball team."
Fallacies:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appeal_to_accomplishment
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority

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The studies agree,
Studies? Plural? You keep regurgitating one. There may be other studies that agree with it (as Matt implied), but I'd bet you don't even know about them, much less evaluated them with the skepticism that is what makes science work. One sabermetrician you admire wrote up a study that falls short of conclusive proof, that the writers themselves hedge on the conclusiveness of the proof of, and that's enough for you to repeatedly assert that it's proven.

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don't let my lack of interest in it stop you.
Lack of interest? Lol! The thread has died more than once but you keep reviving it. But yeah, you aren't that interested.

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Originally Posted by The Wolf View Post
Have you considered maybe doing your own study and putting on, say, FanGraphs?
Same fallacy as above: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appeal_to_accomplishment

Some internet posters challenged some of Bill James' findings. In some cases, they were right such that James would admit it today. But the argumentum ad verecundiam fallacy would have led them to be dismissed. They ended up starting the Baseball Prospectus.

And heck, just about everything Bill James wrote went against what just about every baseball exec, announcer, manager, and player "knew" to be true. He was mostly right, and in the cases where he turned out to be wrong (because someone else challenged him, not falling into the fallacies) his reasoning was still better relative to the "authorities" of the time.

The credentials of a theory's proponents or opponents mean next to nothing in sabermetrics. It's all the strength of the proofs.

As I've said before, I think some PH penalty probably exists in real life. As with Bill James about the Dowd report (before Pete Rose eventually confessed to betting on baseball), I remember him writing that he didn't know whether or not Pete Rose bet on baseball, but he was sure the Dowd report didn't prove Rose did.

I don't know whether or not there is a real life PH penalty. I think there probably is, at least a 51% chance. But I know the one study you repeatedly cite is not sufficient proof to say with certainty that it exists.
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Old 06-05-2016, 11:40 AM   #74
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I listed two of them, but never mind. You just revived this thread, but never mind. Some random guy has an opinion and he thinks he knows better than the experts, but never mind. Enjoy your fantasies.
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Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn View Post
Well, the average OOTP user...downloads the game, manages his favorite team and that's it.
According to OOTP itself, OOTP MLB play (modern and historical) outnumbers OOTP fictional play three to one.

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Old 06-06-2016, 01:23 AM   #75
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You know... I had just asked a question... and yes, shared my opinion.

Respecting all facts/opinions etc on this thread, no one has addressed one simple point I've made about playing OOTP.

In this game, I, and I imagine many people, will only put in a PH who has better ratings than the guy he is stepping in for. Based on that premise, shouldn't the PH have a better chance in that AB, or does this "PH penalty" entirely negate that?
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Old 06-06-2016, 01:46 AM   #76
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I'd say: Don't do it for marginal improvements, only do it if either -
1. Position player bats for pitcher,
2. Obviously better bat (often 1B/3B/LF/RF batting for C or SS)
3. Exploiting lefty-righty matchups. Even with a PH malus, I'd rather have a righty PH than a lefty batter facing a lefty pitcher. Remember that not only your batter becomes better against the favored side pitchers, also the pitchers become usually worse. Watch out for reverse platoon split and the ability of the opponent to counter your move though.
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Old 06-06-2016, 11:03 AM   #77
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Anyone, this is for you:

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/

they don't use the latin terms, but it's good enough.
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Old 06-06-2016, 11:32 AM   #78
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I'd say: Don't do it for marginal improvements, only do it if either -
1. Position player bats for pitcher,
2. Obviously better bat (often 1B/3B/LF/RF batting for C or SS)
3. Exploiting lefty-righty matchups. Even with a PH malus, I'd rather have a righty PH than a lefty batter facing a lefty pitcher. Remember that not only your batter becomes better against the favored side pitchers, also the pitchers become usually worse. Watch out for reverse platoon split and the ability of the opponent to counter your move though.
I agree, and that's pretty much how I do it, although I don't look at relative positions per se. With the penalty you need to be gaining a significant advantage somewhere.
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Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn View Post
Well, the average OOTP user...downloads the game, manages his favorite team and that's it.
According to OOTP itself, OOTP MLB play (modern and historical) outnumbers OOTP fictional play three to one.

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Old 06-07-2016, 12:50 AM   #79
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Number4 and the Wolf - Thank you. This is all I was asking for...
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Old 06-13-2016, 10:18 PM   #80
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So, if there is a PH penalty in OOTP, how does that apply to historical? For example, from 1974 to 1980, Manny Mota hit .316 in 250 pinch-hit at bats, and .286 in 28 non-pinch hit at bats. Of course OOTP would not "know" that Manny's battings stats were accumulated primarily as a pinch-hitter, and that a PH penalty should not apply to him. Does that mean that we would expect Mota to therefore underperform (compared to real life) in OOTP simulations if he were used in OOTP similar to how he was used in real life, and that he would only be expected to perform at real-life levels if used - unlike in real life - as starter?
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