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Old 02-10-2019, 07:16 PM   #1
WBTyler939
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Pack Odds

I just noticed the odds of pulling a Silver card are listed at 1:20. So that means theoretically you should pull a silver once every four packs. I haven't kept strict records, but I'd guess my rate of pulling silver cards is more like once every 12 packs. Am I just super unlucky? What have others found regarding silver pulls?

(For comparison, in more than 250 packs across my various FTP teams (more than 1500 cards), I've pulled approximately 20 golds, 6 diamonds and 1 perfect, almost all live cards. And I probably average 2-3 bronze cards per pack.)
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Old 02-10-2019, 07:25 PM   #2
eldur00
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WBTyler939 View Post
I just noticed the odds of pulling a Silver card are listed at 1:20. So that means theoretically you should pull a silver once every four packs. I haven't kept strict records, but I'd guess my rate of pulling silver cards is more like once every 12 packs. Am I just super unlucky? What have others found regarding silver pulls?

(For comparison, in more than 250 packs across my various FTP teams (more than 1500 cards), I've pulled approximately 20 golds, 6 diamonds and 1 perfect, almost all live cards. And I probably average 2-3 bronze cards per pack.)

If you average 2-3 Bronze Cards per pack you're already doing better than most of us. Congratulations ! Hope your luck trickles down to me.
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Old 02-10-2019, 08:57 PM   #3
daveh2018
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Have probably opened at least 65 packs total beyond the starter 6's from my three accounts - no perfects so far over here.
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Old 02-11-2019, 06:28 AM   #4
2002halos
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WBTyler939 View Post
I just noticed the odds of pulling a Silver card are listed at 1:20. So that means theoretically you should pull a silver once every four packs. I haven't kept strict records, but I'd guess my rate of pulling silver cards is more like once every 12 packs. Am I just super unlucky? What have others found regarding silver pulls?

(For comparison, in more than 250 packs across my various FTP teams (more than 1500 cards), I've pulled approximately 20 golds, 6 diamonds and 1 perfect, almost all live cards. And I probably average 2-3 bronze cards per pack.)
Yeah, you've been unlucky on silvers. I've opened nearly 2500 packs, and kept records.

Bronze should average exactly 2 per pack (since you get one automatically and the other 5 cards have a one in five chance of being bronze. I've averaged 2.000438 Bronze per pack, so you can see over time, it does approach expected.

Like you said, Silver should average 1 per 4 packs. My average is 1 per 4.16, so I've been slightly unlucky.

Gold should average 1 per 10 packs. I've been very lucky so far with 1 per 7.64 packs.

Diamond should average 1 per 30 packs. Again, I've been lucky with 1 per 26.45 packs.

Perfect should average 1 per 200 packs. Again I've been lucky with 1 per 136.67 packs.

Keep in mind that the higher the level of the card, the longer it can take you to approach the expected rate, due to the increasing rarity of the event.

I thought I read a dev say somewhere that non-Live cards will show up 1 out of 3 times (33%) when you pull a good card. But I'm guessing it's actually 1 of 4 (25%) based on my data.

My non-Live Bronzes are just 23% of Bronzes pulled. And there's enough of these that I should be fairly close to expected, so I'm guessing 20% or 25% would be the expected rate.

My non-Live Silvers are also 23%. Maybe expected on this would also be 20% or 25%.

My non-Live Golds are at 26%. Maybe expected here is 25%.

My non-Live Diamonds are at 27%. Again 25% seems likely expected.

My non-Live Perfects are at 22%. (4 of 18) 25% is a real possiblity.

If 1 out of 3 pulls should be non-Live cards then I've been unlucky on every level, which seems unlikely.

But if it's 1 of 4, then I've been a little lucky on Gold and Diamond but a little unlucky on Bronze, Silver and Perfect. This seems more likely to me.

It does appear to me that the rates stated by the game are probably being adhered to, or possibly the rates on Gold and up are better than they claim, so that people will feel good, since I've done a bit better than expected at all levels above Silver. My Diamond and Perfect draws seem reasonable, but my Gold is waaaay better than it ought to be, and it's a more common level, so it's possible I've been really, really lucky, but I suspect they're a bit more common than claimed.
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Old 02-11-2019, 08:05 AM   #5
km352
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2002halos View Post
Bronze should average exactly 2 per pack (since you get one automatically and the other 5 cards have a one in five chance of being bronze...
It's possible that "getting one automatically" is what's happening, but it's written as "one Bronze card guaranteed" which makes the calculation more complex. The simplest algorithm for implementing the guarantee would be to distribute the first five cards and if no bronzes had been received give them a bronze as the sixth card. Or, if the guarantee is actually "one card that's at least a bronze", randomize the sixth card and upgrade it to bronze if it's an "iron" and cards 1-5 were all iron.

edit: never mind, I now realize that the simplest interpretation of "one bronze card guaranteed" works out the same as "getting one automatically". It would only be different if you interpret the guarantee as "one card that's at least a bronze".

Last edited by km352; 02-11-2019 at 08:09 AM. Reason: reconsidered the situation
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Old 02-11-2019, 12:27 PM   #6
JustBlazin
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have opened 325-350 packs
only cards that hit the stated odds is bronze for me
not even close to 1 silver every 3-4 packs
gold is the best of the good cards with it just slightly under pack odds
diamnond is brutal with a drop rate of just over half the pack odds at 7
0 perfect cards should be 2
must say getting really frustrating opening countless packs and not getting anywhere close to pack odds on good cards
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Old 02-11-2019, 12:44 PM   #7
WBTyler939
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2002halos View Post
Yeah, you've been unlucky on silvers. I've opened nearly 2500 packs, and kept records.

Bronze should average exactly 2 per pack (since you get one automatically and the other 5 cards have a one in five chance of being bronze. I've averaged 2.000438 Bronze per pack, so you can see over time, it does approach expected.

Like you said, Silver should average 1 per 4 packs. My average is 1 per 4.16, so I've been slightly unlucky.

Gold should average 1 per 10 packs. I've been very lucky so far with 1 per 7.64 packs.

Diamond should average 1 per 30 packs. Again, I've been lucky with 1 per 26.45 packs.

Perfect should average 1 per 200 packs. Again I've been lucky with 1 per 136.67 packs.

Keep in mind that the higher the level of the card, the longer it can take you to approach the expected rate, due to the increasing rarity of the event.

I thought I read a dev say somewhere that non-Live cards will show up 1 out of 3 times (33%) when you pull a good card. But I'm guessing it's actually 1 of 4 (25%) based on my data.

My non-Live Bronzes are just 23% of Bronzes pulled. And there's enough of these that I should be fairly close to expected, so I'm guessing 20% or 25% would be the expected rate.

My non-Live Silvers are also 23%. Maybe expected on this would also be 20% or 25%.

My non-Live Golds are at 26%. Maybe expected here is 25%.

My non-Live Diamonds are at 27%. Again 25% seems likely expected.

My non-Live Perfects are at 22%. (4 of 18) 25% is a real possiblity.

If 1 out of 3 pulls should be non-Live cards then I've been unlucky on every level, which seems unlikely.

But if it's 1 of 4, then I've been a little lucky on Gold and Diamond but a little unlucky on Bronze, Silver and Perfect. This seems more likely to me.

It does appear to me that the rates stated by the game are probably being adhered to, or possibly the rates on Gold and up are better than they claim, so that people will feel good, since I've done a bit better than expected at all levels above Silver. My Diamond and Perfect draws seem reasonable, but my Gold is waaaay better than it ought to be, and it's a more common level, so it's possible I've been really, really lucky, but I suspect they're a bit more common than claimed.
I'd say you've been as lucky as I've been unlucky, so overall it evens out. I have a friend who was pulling historical diamonds and perfects constantly while I was not. I'm sure the odds across the system are at least close to as stated, but there seems to be a high level of variance across individuals.
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Old 02-11-2019, 08:15 PM   #8
bobbycockstrong
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Are pack odds per pack (1 silver every 20 packs) or per card (1 silver every 4 packs)?

Any of the OOTP folks ever confirm that one way or the other?

For me it definitely seems per pack haha
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