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Old 09-26-2012, 04:09 AM   #21
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Class of 1947, Hitters: Collins, Dahlen

Four players, two hitters and two pitchers enter, this year.

--------------

Eddie Collins retired after the 1945 season and fell victim to the 1 year wait period instituted for 1946. He gets in on the first ballot, easily.

3rd in career hits (3860), 3rd in runs scored (2048), 3rd in WAR & VORP, and the most games played by anyone at any position (3131) and the most walks (1865).

He did this all as a second baseman, where he holds 10 positional batting records, including RBI (1508). He kicked Joe Morgan off that page in all categories except for CS. Collins was caught 502 times, Morgan 800. Morgan did have 880 SB, but Collins' 771 places him 3rd on that list with a better % than Lajoie or Morgan who are ahead of him.

His 80 score on the Hall of Fame Standards is better than anyone hitter's in the Hall.

In three world series he hit .377, stole 11 bases, and won twice.

A 4 time MVP and 8 time All Star, Collins won three consecutive batting titles from 1925 - 1827.

In 1926 he posted league and career bests with a line of 412/487/576. Playing from 1923-1945 he posted a career BA of .334, 6th best all-time.

Black Ink 57 (19)
Gray Ink 246 (271)
HOFm 418 (250)
HOFs 80 (72)

-----------------------

Bill Dahlen played his entire career (1924 - 1941) with the Phillies. He won 3 GGs and anchored two WS winners and another pennant winner.

His HOFs number broke the Hall average, and that is how he gets in.

He is the career leader at SS in runs (1547), TB (3916) and doubles (521). With 1469, he is also the career leader there in DPs.

Dahlen collected 2685 hits while batting .285 for his career.

In RL, Dahlen can be argued as deserving of the Hall. When 8 of the 10 most similar players are in, he deserves some barstool consideration. No matter, though, he is in this one. Welcome! Though Collins is not on his list, Dahlen is 10th most similar player to his classmate.

Black 15 (4)
Gray 123 (96)
HOFm 131.5 (94)
HOFs 54 (48)

ADD: Dahlen was not selected by the OOTP default standards.

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Old 09-26-2012, 12:04 PM   #22
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Class of 1947, Pitchers: Casey, Lanier

As previously mentioned, this method is an attempt to simulate HOF procedures, not induct the best players at the first opportunity. The quirkiness of voters and their sometimes perplexing choices of one player over another is that which is trying to be emulated.

I am not altering the results of the method just because an instance makes no sense to me. I am not going to try to justify the selections just because it is my method and, therefore, the results should be greeted with reverent applause.

However, in cases of seemingly odd choices, I will seek to find some sort of justification for the selection through means other than a fictional "He was a good guy" storyline. That is not saying that fictional storylines aren't fun to employ in simulated baseball games.

------------------------------

How does a sub .500 pitcher get in? How does a sub .500 pitcher get in without 300 wins? How does a sub .500 pitcher get in when there are 300 win pitchers eligible and waiting? Maybe the sub .500 pitcher was a really good guy......

Dan Casey gets in with a 260-282 mark. Pitching from 1909 to 1926, he spent his entire career with the Chicago Cubs. OK, that might indicate why he was better than his W/L record indicates.

In his 18 years with the team, the Cubs finished above .500 twice. He won 20 games 6 times.

In 1912 he won the CYA going 22-16 with a 1.87 OOTP ERA. That year the Cubs went 66-88. He was credited with winning 33% of his team's games that year.

Over the course of his career, the Cubs had a win% of .465. Casey had a win % of .480. Projecting this win rate to a .500 team would turn 20 losses into wins. He notched 2008 strikeouts and 36 shutouts.

His K/9 is better than Saberhagen's. His W/9 is better than Walter Johnson's. The only category in which he is last amongst Hall members is his W%. Someone has to be there.

And the writer's think he is a good guy......

He gets in on the Veteran Standard.

Black Ink 25
Gray Ink 211
HOFm 104
HOFs 38

---------------

Max Lanier, like Casey, was inducted by the program on default settings. Also, like Lanier, he finished his career below .500. Hippo Vaughan must have been a real jerk to the writers......

Also like Casey, he gets in on the Veteran Standard.

Lanier went 259-296 (Casey no longer having the lowest W% in the Hall) from 1883 to 1901. He struck out 2151 batters and carried a 2.73 OOTP ERA for his career.

He was named to 6 All Star teams and won 2 GGs.

With this ballot the first talk of drug testing in the MLB community is born.

Black 21
Gray 210
HOFm 143
HOFs 35

ADD: Lanier is the first pitcher inducted to not win a Cy Young Award.

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Old 09-26-2012, 05:15 PM   #23
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Class of 1948: Strawberry, Vaughn

Darryl Strawberry was the only player to retire in 1946 that the program deemed worthy of induction. He got top priority for an initial screening and his numbers were above the Hall averages across the board, so he becomes a first-ballot inductee.

Strawberry enters the Hall with 409 HRs, a .524 slg%, and a career OPS of .910, all Hall bests. The only players with better totals are still active. Strawberry enters the Hall 3rd on the all time HR list (no one has yet to hit 500).

He batted .303 and got on base at a .386 clip. Debuting in 1928, he led the league in HRs in each of his first EIGHT seasons. He appeared in 3 ASGs, won 2 GGs, and one WS. Once again, I love the "What might have been" aspect of this game.

Black Ink 57 (7)
Gray Ink 220 (100)
HOFm 178 (56)
HOFs 58 (30)


ADD: Strawberry, as did Babe Herman, hit for the cycle twice in the same season, something never done in real life. He also hit for a 3rd cycle in his career, something no real player has done.

ADD: Strawberry hit 45 HRs in 1935. This is the current single season record.

-----------------

I have to watch what I write as side comments. I mention sub .500 pitchers, *bam*, I get two in. I mention Hippo Vaughn, *bam*, his name sorts to the top of the spreadsheet randomization and he gets in.

Illustrating the dynamic nature of the Hall process, Vaughn's composites are very similar to Strawberry's, when the hitter/pitcher normalization is applied. When the Hall only had 5 members, the standards were much higher as entry was based on comparisons to those in. Tris Speaker is still the most dominant player in the Hall. Charlie Ferguson the most dominant pitcher. In order to get in on first Ballot, you had to approach those numbers. Kauff and Lajoie also posted similarly, but not as, dominant Hall stats, so their early entry kept the standards high before the mass inductions of 1945 and 1946.

Had Vaughn retired in 1946, he would have been a first balloter. Times change and Hall Standards change.

From 1895 to 1916, Vaughn won 390 games (3rd All-Time) vs 238 losses while posting an OOTP ERA of 2.44. No pitcher, other than inaugural class inductee Cozy Dolan, with 10 yrs of service has a better winning percentage than Vaughn's .610. For over 600 decisions, that is simply amazing.

Yes, he pitched on good teams. He went to 9 WS and won 5. He and fellow HOFer David Wells were a legendary 1-2 punch for those Phillie teams.

He won 3 CYA and went to 3 All Star games.

Black 44 (27)
Gray 396 (155)
HOFm 242.5 (90)
HOFs 69 (36)

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Old 09-29-2012, 04:53 AM   #24
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Class of 1949: Galvin, Derringer, Wynn

Two pitchers and one hitter enter this year. These three are all very close to today's RL average HOFer based on the Ink and HOFm/s standards.

------------

Pud Galvin was the first pick overall in the 1892 draft. He won the Cy Young Award in 1894 with a 33-10 record and led the league in wins, win %, IP strikeouts, K/9, CG, CG%, and WAR.

He retired in 1910 after posting 250 career wins vs 232 losses. He had a career OOTP ERA of 3.02 which gave him a non park adjusted ERA+ of 109.

He was in the WS twice, and on the winning side once. He was also 2 time All Star and pitched 30 shutouts.

Picked by the program to be in the Hall, he enters on the Veteran Standard.

Black Ink 52 (19)
Gray Ink 190 (250)
HOFm 129.5 (202)
HOFs 36 (60)

--------------

Paul Derringer is the closest thing to an "average" 2012 HOFer, yet. It is easier to compare a starting pitcher in this way because of the added scores middle infielders and catchers get that allow them in with lower raw offensive numbers than outfielders and corner infielders.

Normalizing each of the 4 categories to a 1 average, a sum of 4 would be considered "average" 2012 for the Hall. Derringer's sum is 3.9.

Derringer pitched from 1902 through the 1918 season compiling a record of 238-222 with an OOTP ERA of 2.54 and a non park adjusted ERA+ of 109. In 477 starts he threw 42 shutouts and struck out 1717 batters while walking 809.

In 1904, he won the CYA with a 29-9 record and a 2.06 ERA. From 1904-1909, he won 133 games with ERAs ranging from 1.77 to 2.35.

He started 5 times in two World Series. He went 3-1 in those games and posting a 1.76 (npa ERA+ 157) in those 5 appearances. His team won both times, consecutively.

Like Galvin, Derringer was a program HOF selection at the time of his retirement who enters on the Veteran Standard.

Black 43 (19)
Gray 178 (180)
HOFm 110 (98)
HOFs 40 (28)

--------------

Jim "The Toy Cannon" Wynn had a seat marked way the heck back in the upper deck of the Astrodome where he once hit a ball. I never saw a game there, but did take a tour of the dome on a spring break trip (the crews were preparing the ball diamond for the upcoming season, I remember) when I was around 9 years-old and just looked in awe at the distance from from where home plate would be to that seat.

He has been immortalized in my mind from that day, and it is nice to see him immortalized in this HOF.

Jimmy Wynn retired from his simulated career in 1945 with the most HRs of any player eligible, but not in, with 328. That's one more than Hall resident Evan Longoria.

Wynn was the first player drafted in 1923. From 1924 he collected 2660 hits while batting .277. He has the third most walks in league history with 1663 which gives him a Jamesian seal of approval in getting him an OBP 105 points above his BA. He led the league in walks 7 times.

His 286 HRs as a CFer are the most in league history.

Wynn won 5 GGs in CF and was an All Star 4 times. He won two WS in 4 appearances and hit for the cycle twice.

Wynn enters by virtue of his HOFs number being above the Hall average.

His sim npa OPS+ of 126 compares to RL OPS+ of 129.


Black 31 (4)
Gray 201 (94)
HOFm 88.5 (36)
HOFs 58 (30)

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Old 10-05-2012, 05:52 AM   #25
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A review of the Hall in 1950

There were no inductions in 1950, so I decided to take a look at the numbers of the Hall, at this point.

First, the omissions.

Eligible players with the most:

Hits - Buddy Bell, 3187, 11th
HRs - Johnny Lewis, 275, 14th
Wins - Al Pratt, 363, 7th
Ks - Al Pratt, 3999, 2nd

Eligible players leading in career categories:

Caught Stealing - Bert Campaneris, 869
Walks - John J McGraw*, 1929 (McGraw retired in 1948, so became officially eligible this year. He has not been passed over by the process.)
Saves - Kanley Jansen, 207
Games - Kanley Jansen, 1020
Losses - Al Pratt, 343
Walks - Al Pratt, 2328
George Knight pitched from 1901-1916 and holds the career bests in H/9, K/9, and OppSlg

Buddy Bell retired in 1935, so in 5 years he will be eligible for the Veteran Standard. He has fallen short on the 'first ballot' screening and 2 subsequent checks with the normal standard which is to exceed the Hall average in one of the 4 categories.

Johnny Lewis did not get a 'first ballot' screening because the software did not induct him on the default setting. He has yet to receive a screening. He became eligible in 1948.

Al Pratt has not been screened since his initial 'first ballot'. He will get in when his name pops to the top of the random sort.

Campaneris has been screened 3 times. He has come close to getting in on the Veteran standard. It is a toss up whether or not he will get in on that standard before he gets eliminated from the spreadsheet. Each screening requires better numbers to stay in consideration. CS isn't a positive stat, obviously, but he does have 8GGs and 2 WS at SS which helps his HOFm/s numbers.

McGraw is yet to be screened.

Jansen and Knight probably won't get in because of the remaining back log of pitchers who will most likely keep the selection process from going to a career pitching leader, again.
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Old 10-05-2012, 06:08 AM   #26
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Charting the Hall

I made a quick chart plotting the composite numbers of the Hall inductees.

A composite number of 4 is approximately that of the average current day HOFer.

The X axis is simply the order of induction, so this chart shows the numerical trend of entrants over time.

In this Hall, the current average score is about 6. What we should continue to see is a downward trend in entrants scores punctuated by high scoring outliers. These outliers will be players getting in on the 'first ballot' standard, generally.

The top scorer is the first entrant, Tris Speaker. The bottom scorer is Hans Lobert. After Lobert we see Walter Johnson near an 8, and Eddie Collins near a 10. The Current Standard Deviation of the entrants is about 2.4.

In 1951, there will be 2 hitters entered. Though I haven't tabulated his numbers yet, I am thinking I will have one enter on the first ballot standard, and maybe a second (both RL HOFers). Even if 2 first balloters enter, they will be just 2 numbers out of 48 and the standards won't raise significantly. I expect this chart to show declining positioning of plots on the Y and the average composite near 4 when 2012 arrives.
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Old 10-09-2012, 05:57 PM   #27
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Class of 1951: Wagner, Sandoval

Two hitters enter the Hall in 1951. I had two computer entries that were screened for First Ballot consideration, and one of them was Honus Wagner. He soared in.



Honus Wagner is on the shortlist of players legitimately in the argument for best player ever. An original RL HOFer (the second of that class to enter this Hall) Honus achieved in this alternate world greatness amongst the greats.

He posted the highest HOFs number of anyone in the Hall, and his HOFm number is second only to Tris Speaker's.

He played from 1929 through 1949 and batted .336 (4th all-time) while collecting 3991 hits (3rd). He won 3 MVPs, appeared in 12 All Star games, and won 8 GGs at shortstop.

He spent his prime seasons with the St Louis Browns and won a WS with them.

He played in over 2900 games, and over 1200 of those were as a first baseman. In the 1640 games at SS he places first in just about every category that matters for both single season marks and career marks for SS, even though he is 19th on the GP at SS list.

12 times he collected 200 hits in a season, with a high of 254 in 1937, his best season, 403/457/597 npa OPS+ 186. His career npa OPS+ is 143.

He hit 276 HRs, with a single season high of 31. He drove in 1809 (4th), scored 2110 (3rd), and walked a cool looking 1111 times.

He twice hit for the cycle. His 64 doubles in 1934 is still the single season record at the time of his induction.

Black Ink 58 (109)
Gray Ink 386 (367)
HOFm 423.5 (316)
HOFs 86 (75)


---------

I LOVE this game. A big part of it is how the recalc and player development models mesh...this is just sooooo cool.

Coming off a strong 2011, Pablo Sandoval was in a prime position to have the fortunes bestowed by the player development model be in his favor. Sandoval was not inducted by the default HOF standards, but he gets in on the Veteran Standard in what could be called a Tony Perez induction.

Sandoval played from 1891 into the 1910 season. He got 2562 hits while batting .291 for his career.

Playing the deadball era he managed to get 100 RBI in a season 3 times.

He was also a key component in the Phillie dynasty that won 13 pennants and 9 WS while he played 3rd base.

Teammates David Wells and Hippo Vaughn certainly owe a portion of their success to the man who won an MVP for knocking in runs and 6 GGs at 3B preventing them.

In 1903, his MVP year, he hit league bests of .340 average, 36 doubles, and 103 RBI. His 6 HRs were 4th best that season.

Sandoval joins Hanley Ramirez and Evan Longoria as the third player who is active in RL to be inducted.

Black 16 Perez : 0
Gray 148 Perez : 129
HOFm 108 Perez : 81
HOFs 38 Perez : 41

ADD: Speaker, Lajoie, and Brouthers were also part of the Phillie dynasty, so to continue the theme of Sandoval getting in on the Perez standard, Morgan, Rose* and Bench preceeded him into the Hall, and the Davey Concepcion of these teams, Burt Campaneris, is on the bubble.

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Old 10-13-2012, 09:42 AM   #28
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Class of 1952: Cobb, Reyes

I had been simply simming the years, but I got tired of that, so I started playing out seasons managing the Athletics. I got fired, so I will sim 20 seasons before trying again. This should speed up the inductions.

----------

What will really speed up the inductions is screening careers like Ty Cobb. Entering on the first ballot standard, Cobb has set a host of new standards for the Hall.

Cobb enters the Hall as the all time leader in BA (.360), games (3431), AB (13435), runs (2443), hits (4840....maybe it's really 4839), TB (6968), singles (3469) and doubles (850).

Only 2 players have hit more than his 285 triples, and his 236 HRs place him 20th on the career list.

He won 10 MVPs (Speaker won 7), was a 12 time All-Star, and simply blew out the metrics of the Hall. There is now Cobb, then Speaker, then everyone else.

He has the highest Black Ink, the highest Gray Ink, and the highest HOFm number of anyone in the Hall. His HOFs number is second to Wagner by a point for top hitters.

How dominant was he? 10 batting titles...in a row. 11 total. Joining the league in 1927, he hit .366 to finish second in the batting race while winning ROY. Then won 10 straight batting titles. He hit a career high .420 in 1932.

From his rookie season through 1942, his lowest hit total 227. Yeah, 14 straight years with AT LEAST 227 hits. In 1930 he cracked 271 hits and scored a still standing record of 174 runs. In 1932 he again hit 271 base hits.

A career line of 360/424/519 gives him a npa OPS+ of 159.

He won a WS in 1930, his only appearance.

What did he not do? Win a Gold Glove.

Black Ink: 151 (154)
Gray Ink: 432 (417)
HOFm: 597.5 (445)
HOFs: 85 (75)

---------------------------

Jose B Reyes becomes the fourth active RL player to join this Hall. He did win a batting title in 1941, but didn't have to bunt and remove himself from the final game to get it.

Reyes was not inducted by the software, so he did not get a "First Ballot" screening. However, he did retire in 1950 (like Cobb), and this was his first time eligible, and he did get in, so he is an official first balloter. His Black Ink and HOFm numbers exceeded the Hall averages.

Reyes broke in to the league in 1933. He collected 2496 hits while batting .296.

A 9 time All Star, 3 time GG and an MVP in 1941, Reyes also holds the record for most triples by a SS with 265.

Reyes was the regular SS for 5 WS teams. He was on the winning side twice.

Reyes did have a HOF career. It's just that entering with Cobb, it almost seems like he doesn't belong. Well, if Cobb is the Hall Standard, then no one else belongs.

Black 41
Gray 167
HOFm 207
HOFs 45

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Old 10-14-2012, 03:21 AM   #29
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Class of 1953, Pitchers - Kaat, Johnson

1953 has two pitchers and two hitters entering. For most of this league, the random debut feature has generated a larger number of great name pitchers than hitters. This was my casual gathering of the situation, but the career outputs sort of bear this out.

At the end of the 1951 season I have 29 pitchers with 300 wins, or more. One is still active. In real life there are 23 pitchers with 300 wins. All RL pitchers with 300 who are eligible are in the RL HOF.

Through 1953 there were 18 pitchers in the HOF. Even if I limited entry to those with 300 wins, I would have 11 waiting on the outside.

Achieving 300 wins in this universe does not have the same significance as it does in the real one.

--------------------

Jim Kaat is a 300 win pitcher who gets in on the Veteran Standard. 304 wins vs 242 losses is a fine career win % of .556. The Hall committee determined that he had been waiting too long and passed over some younger 300 game winners and enshrined Mr Kaat.

In 630 games he pitched 5047 innings striking out 1637 and walking 1097 while compiling a career OOTP ERA of 3.29. He pitched 39 shutouts in his career which started in 1912 and ended in 1931.

He won 20 games 6 times and led the league in 1920 with 24 victories. Yet, he never won a CYA.

The surprising thing to me is that the man who is often talked about as the best fielding pitcher ever picked up just one GG in his career, here.

He spent his career on Phillie and Pirate teams that never won a pennant. He joined the Phillies at the end of their dynasty. His rookie year they missed the WS by three games. The Phillies went down hill from there, and the Pirates were even worse.

In his 20 years he only played on 7 teams that won 80 games. None won 90. That he posted the win rate he did is remarkable.

His 288 HRs allowed are the most by a HOFer.

Black Ink : 23 (16)
Gray Ink : 223 (125)
HOFm : 113.5 (130)
HOFs : 45 (144)

---------------

Randy Johnson retired in 1904. His 50 year wait to get in the Hall is the longest of anyone.

But waiting is nothing new to Mr Johnson. In a career that started in the 2 pitcher rotation era in 1883, Johnson had yet to pitch 28 innings when the 1887 season started. At the age of 27 he became "The Unit" and over the next 18 years won 354 games (9th all time) and struck out 3197 (5th).

In 1897 he won the CYA going 23-8 while carrying 2.32 OOTP ERA which was a 158 npa ERA+.

His career npa ERA+ is a 114. He pitched 525 CGs (5th) and 33 shut outs.

Both Kaat and Johnson were inducted by the default software standards. Though Johnson waited 50 years, he got in not on the Veteran Standard, but rather by exceeding the Hall averages in all but the Black Ink metric.

At 93, he is the oldest player at the time of induction.

Johnson went 1-2 in his only WS, a losing effort.

Black: 56 (99)
Gray: 300 (280)
HOFm: 222 (331)
HOFs: 57 (65)

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Old 10-14-2012, 04:39 AM   #30
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Class of 1953, Hitters - Gentile, Berra

That big hitting names have been more scarce than big pitchers may be just my perception, but in RL 1953 there were 4 players who had reached the 500 HR plateau. In this league, there have been only 2.


Jim Gentile was the first player to hit 500 career HRs. In a nice "what might have been" universe, Gentile was not stuck in a reserve clause environment behind a HOF 1B man until he was traded at the age of 27 and got his chance to play regularly.

Drafted 4th over-all, Gentile immediately established himself in his 1932 rookie season by hitting 37 HRs, 107 RBI, scoring 117 runs, walking 100 times, and posting a line of 314/427/563 which rated a npa OPS + of 170. No matter what type of stats you favor, this is impressive across the board output.

In his 6 seasons before turning 27, he hit 201 HRs, and had scored and driven in over 100 runs both, in 4 seasons.

A career .303 hitter, of his 2796 hits, 527 were HRs, the most by anyone at the time of his induction. His career OBP is .418 and career slg is .522 for a npa OPS+ of 158.

1754 RBI (7th all time) and 1706 runs scored (11th) were but overkill ofr the selection committee which breezed Gentile into the Hall on the First Ballot standard.

He appeared in 15 All Star games, won 2 MVPs, and won 3 WS in 3 tries.

Black Ink: 51 (4)
Gray Ink: 261 (34)
HOFm: 222.5 (36)
HOFs: 59 (15)

--------------------------

I don't like falling back on the explanation that the Hall Committee selects one player over another simply because he was a good guy. But, if there ever was a good guy in baseball and for baseball, that guy is named Yogi Berra.

The standards were raised significantly with the Cobb/Reyes class of 1952 (mainly by Cobb, but Reyes pulled up the old numbers, also). Several players with name recognition were removed from the spread sheet who just feel short in what turned out to be their last chance to be inducted by the numbers.

Yogi Berra gets in on the Veteran Standard, but just barely.

But he is beyond a good guy, so I will be happy to make a case for him.

Like Gentile, Berra was drafted 4th overall. Debuting in 1898 and playing through 1914, Berra played during seasons that were anything but conducive for offense. Yet, he managed to accumulate 2228 hits and drive in 1025 runs in this environment. And he did this as a catcher.

He ranks 9th all time in GS and IP at C. He is 6th all time in number of base runners thrown out.

He won 2 GGs and was MVP in 1904 when he led the league in HRs with 9. His 289/340/383 line from that season, along with his GG defense, was good for a npa OPS + of 138 and a league leading WAR/VORP.

He captained his teams to 3 pennants, but fell short of winning a championship.

Did I mention that he's a good guy, also?

Black: 20 (0)
Gray: 109 (138)
HOFm: 111 (226)
HOFs: 28 (49)

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Old 10-14-2012, 08:02 PM   #31
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5 year wait now in effect

1954 introduces the 5 year wait after retirement for players to enter the Hall. This has several impacts. One is, there won't be any first ballot inductions until 1959.

This means the players in this class through 1958 will be players that have already been eligible for induction and, with some exceptions, did not make it in with previous standards.

The inductees will be lower in scores during this time than previously.

This is the first major outside factor that will influence the scores down towards a 4 average. Currently the average composite for players in the Hall is just below 6.

The "floor" of the data points has edged downward since the first class. We just won't see that many out of this world HOFers. Putting in 5 players from 60 years of history (the inaugural class) will yield a higher average than putting in 9 players that have already been picked over, as happened in 1945.

In 1945, we didn't simply see the floor continue to slope downwards, we saw it break as players were inducted not by the measures of Ink and HOF numbers, but by leader board placement. The "floor breakers" are Bill White, Roy Thomas, Babe Herman, and Hans Lorbert. Their induction created a significantly different standard for following inductees. We will see this happen again prior to 1959.

The inductees for the class of 1954 (Amby McConnell, Tommy Harper, and Gavvy Cravath) did not break the floor in the sense that they all got in on their Ink and or HOF number scores. However, their scores pull down the Hall averages. It is also important to note that a lot of players were looked at before these three and they were found not to have sufficient numbers to get in in 1945.

When all the players on the spreadsheet have been screened in a given year, and their are still spots to fill and the Hall committee goes back to the leader boards, then we will see the floor break, again, and we will see players get in who have scores below the previous floor.

The attached chart is complete through the 1954 inductions. We see how dominant Ty Cobb's career is here. His plot is the one above 16. The last three on the right, all clumped near 4 is the class of 1954. Knowing that these players had stronger scores than the majority of the other eligible players and knowing that no new players will be added to eligibility before 1959, it is all but a certainty that we will see at least one break of the floor prior to 1959.

All of this is in reference to hitters entering. There are lots of pitchers with numbers that won't put very much downward pressure on the standards. Some are still in the wait that will pull up the standards. But more hitters are getting in than pitchers, and it is their influence that will produce this predicted dynamic.

ADD: Ruth's RL composite including his pitching Ink as hitting Ink (which inflates the number) is 15.87. Cobb popping a 16 here is quite noteworthy.
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Old 10-15-2012, 03:42 AM   #32
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Class of 1954: McConnell, Harper, Cravath

With the eligible pool of players for induction limited to existing players previously passed over, all three of these inductees make perfect sense.


Amby McConnell is fifth on the career BA list, sandwiched between Honus Wagner and Eddie Collins...nice company.

McConnell posted a career line of 335/382/415 as he collected 2108 hits from 1919 through 1933.

He won the MVP in 1921 when he collected 260 hits while posting a line of 395/447/464. The 260 hits is 5th season best. Only players named Shoeless Joe and Ty have gotten more in a year.

He won one WS and one GG.

McConnell was a HOF selection by the default settings. He gets in on the Veteran Standard.

Black Ink : 33
Gray Ink : 87
HOFm : 158
HOFs : 44

-----------

Tommy Harper also was selected by the program's default HOF settings. He is also inducted on the Veteran Standard.

Tommy Harper collected 2546 hits in just 15 seasons and batted .301 for his career that spanned from 1919-1933. He collected 200 hits in a season 4 times. He collected 190 5 other times, and one more season he had 189.

Harper won a GG and 3 WS in 3 tries. In 16 WS games he posted a slash line of 348/397/515.

Black: 20 (7)
Gray: 140 (55)
HOFm:126 (19)
HOFs: 52 (17)

-------------

In 1925 Gavvy Cravath hit 29 HRs to establish what was then the single season record. His 209 career HRs is only bested by one player who did not enter the league after Cravath's 1916 rookie season.

In 14 seasons Gavvy produced a 288/369/463 for a npa OPS+ of 136. He won the 1921 league MVP, like McConnell, when he hit 28 HRs, 211 hits and a stunning line for the era, or any era, of 359/414/613.

Cravath was not inducted by the default settings, but he is the only one of these three that did not need the lowered Veterans Standard to enter because of his Black Ink number which was largely accumulated by his leading the league in HRs for 6 seasons.

Black: 44 (46)
Gray: 176 (110)
HOFm: 93.5 (50)
HOFs : 35 (23)

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Old 10-16-2012, 03:26 AM   #33
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Class of 1955, Pitchers - Buffington, Pratt

Two pitchers and 4 hitters get in, this year. Lots of qualifying pitchers available, so the 5 year wait imposed now will have no effect as far as having pitchers with lower numbers getting in.



Charlie Buffington has consistently been a bankable stud in my Random Leagues. This one was no different.

From 1905 through 1924 Buffington posted a record of 314-264 with an OOTP ERA of 2.68. His ERA places him 79th on the career list. However, there are only players who started their career after Buffington's rookie season who place higher.

Buffington struck put 2263 batters while walking 1718. His pitched 38 shut outs.

Perhaps his most remarkable feat is that he started 5 WS games in 3 WS, picked up 5 wins, and pitched a complete game in each. That is the stuff of a HOFer.

Buffington enters the Hall by virtue of his HOFs number being above the Hall average.


Black Ink: 25 (3)
Gray Ink: 203 (160)
HOFm: 171 (130)
HOFs: 53 (46)
-----------

Al Pratt retired in 1901. He replaces Randy Johnson as the inductee who waited the longest to get in, and at age 95, is the oldest player at the time of his induction. Why did it take so long? He must have been a bigger jerk then the Unit....

From 1882 through 1903 Pratt won 363 (7th) games and lost 343 (1st). He retired with 3999 strikeouts. Rumor has it that Turk Wendell is a product of his lineage.....Only Charlie Ferguson has more strikeouts.

Pratt was the first player chosen in the 1881 draft and was Rookie of the Year.

He won the Cy Young Award in 1892 going 24-13. His most notable season was in 1884 when he went 29-19 with an OOTP ERA of 1.84 and struck out what is still a single season record 423 batters in 426 2/3 innings.

He pitched in 4 WS, and won 3 titles. He posted a 4-3 mark in WS games.

All of Pratt's numbers, except HOF Monitor, exceeded the current Hall average.

Black Ink: 67
Gray Ink 292
HOFm: 154
HOFs: 57
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Old 10-16-2012, 05:01 AM   #34
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Class of 1955, Hitters: Bell, Molitor, Campaneris, DeLancey

Buddy Bell has the most hits of any eligible player that was not in the hall with 3187. He won 17(!) Gold Gloves at 3rd Base, but still couldn't get in until he was eligible for consideration using the Veteran Standard. He came very close previously to getting in before his Veteran eligibility, but in his first year of Veteran consideration, he gets in easily.

Bell was the 4th player drafted in 1914 and won ROY in 1915. He played through the 1935 season. He appeared in 5 WS with the New York Giants, with whom he spent his entire career, and won 3 times.

The real question regarding Bell is why a guy with this many GGs, WSs and hits not no brainer for the process...er...Committee....

In his 22 seasons he hit 166 HRs and posted a line of 287/335/404. This only scored a npr OPS+ of 104.

His best OPS+ season was his rookie year where his 321/369/414 equalled a nps OPS+ of 134. Only one other season did he get within 10 OPS+ points of that, and that was a 124 in 1918.

Of his 18 seasons with 100 games played, 5 of them he was under 100 for npa OPS+, and these were scattered throughout his career, not just a function of age. 3000 hits and 17 GGs should get you in the HOF, but maybe in some cases it is right to have the VC make the call.

Black Ink: 13 (2)
Gray Ink: 180 (33)
HOFM : 116.5 (60)
HOFs : 49 (30)

-----------------

Paul Molitor gets in by virtue of his HOFs number being above the Hall average.

Molitor batted .302 from 1929 through 1949, collecting 2692 hits while posting a npa OPS+ of 118.

He won 2 GGs at 2nd base, and was a 4 time All Star. He didn't get to a WS until 1942, but then appeared in 4 straight, and won three times with a dominant Tiger team. He was traded to the White Sox and found his way on 2 more winning WS teams, though he was by then a part time player.

Black: 9 (24)
Gray: 184 (145)
HOFm: 121 (166)
HOFs: 52 (59)

------------------

Bert Campaneris finds his way into the Hall to join teammates Dan Brouthers, Nap Lajoie, Tris Speaker, Pablo Sandoval, David Wells, and Hippo Vaughn from what was the most dominant franchise over 25 years, the turn of the century Philadelphia Quakers/Phillies.

Though he is last in, Campaneris entry on the Veteran Standard is deserving. He won 8 GGs as shortstop for these teams.

He carried a .281 average while collecting 2477 hits from 1906 through 1922. He ranks second on the All-Time SB list with 1026, 13 behind the leader, Hans Lorbert.

Black: 27 (18)
Gray: 177 (63)
HOFm:102 (76)
HOFs: 36 (27)

-------------

Campaneris was the last player on the hitter spreadsheet. It's entries has been greatly reduced over the past few classes. When the players on the sheet run out, I go to the leaderboard. I alternate between highest eligible player on either the VORP and WAR boards or career leader in any category. If the turn is for career leader and there are no eligible players that are career leaders, I will take the player that ranks highest in a category other than VORP/WAR.

When I first looked at the VORP and WAR lists I found Brett Lawrie, who would be a first in the HOF for someone who made his debut IRL in 2011. So I am thinking the floor is breaking since I have had to go to the leaderboard.

As I tabulated his numbers I wondered if I had somehow overlooked putting him on the spreadsheet in the first place, because he has numbers to get in the Hall. The floor is not breaking! Then I realized that on the leader list, it lists his last year played in the Majors. Lawrie stuck around into the 1953 season in the minors so he is not eligible.

Bill DeLancey ranks 13th on the career WAR list. He is the highest placing eligible player. He is not the highest placing eligible player on the VORP list, but that player is 32nd, over there, so his 13th slot gets him in. Delancey ranks 62 on the career VORP list.

And the floor is breaking.

DeLancey is the first player to get into the Hall with 0 Black Ink points. Unless I missed someone, Mickey Cochrane was the first RL player to get in with 0 Black Ink. Both are catchers.

DeLancey's career numbers by the Hall metrics, are the lowest of any inductee, and quite a bit lower than Hans Lorbert's, who was the previous outlier on the low end.

It is in this time period IRL is when Rabbit Maranville and Ray Schalk got in.

It is the point of this model to approximate the inequities of the RL HOF, and yes, there are better players available than DeLancey who are not in, but Delancey gets in. And it is argued that there are only 12 other players that did more to help their team win than him.

What this opens up is the "Well, if DeLancey is in, then you have GOT to let So and So in!" This is exactly what happens in Real Life, and Delancey's entry will lead to others getting in that might have otherwise not.

DeLancey was the first pick of the third rd in 1891. He played 2086 games at Catcher, 5th all-time. He is 2nd in runners thrown out, all-time, and also second in Zone rating.

From 1892 to 1911 he collected 2065 hits while posting a slash line of 274/355/372 for a npa OPS+ of 116.

hmmmm..that actually looks quite good for a catcher...maybe the Saberheads found their way into the Selection Committee 50 years early, here.

Now that I look more at DeLancey...if Ray Schalk can be in the Real Hall of Fame, then Bill DeLancey belongs in this one, because DeLancey's career here is better.

Black: 0 Schalk Black 0
Gray: 23 Schalk Gray 4
HOFm: 107 Schalk HOFm 56
HOFs : 34 Schalk HOFs 25

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Old 10-16-2012, 06:50 PM   #35
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Class of 1956: McGraw, Tenace

The floor continues to break as the Hall Committee wrangles over what players they previously deemed not worthy of induction to now be enshrined. Both players come off the leader boards as the recently imposed 5 year wait continues to have an effect on selections.



I see the Hall committee populated with a Sabermetric wing and a traditional wing who are both hardcore in their beliefs that they are right and the other side is completely wrong. There are also Blue Dogs in each camp that can be swayed away from ideological doctrine, and they broker the deals.


John J McGraw was a boarder line candidate who came up just short of getting in previously. The Saberheads demanded his entry based on his career walk total of 1929, the most ever. The traditional guys said he only hit .260, so they fought against him. The committee was told to pick 2 hitters, so they had to come to an agreement on someone.

The traditional guys relented on McGraw, noting he did have 2808 hits from 1928 through 1948. They also liked his 649 stolen bases, 18th all-time.

A 5 time All Star, McGraw won 2 GGs at third base and won 3 titles in 5 WS. He ranks 9th on the all time runs scored list with 1795, ahead of all other eligible players not already in the Hall. McGraw's composite score is slightly above the RL Hall average of 4.

Black Ink: 34 (10)
Gray Ink: 110 (50)
HOFm: 112 (62)
HOFs: 50 (41)

-----------------------

Gene Tenace gets in by the agrument of the Traditional wing who said "If you have Bill DeLancey in, you have got to put Tenace in!"

Tenace and DeLancey were contemporaries. He enters the Hall as the highest eligible player on the WAR list where he is tied (yes, tied) for 25th place with Hall member Home Run Baker.

The traditionalists accused the Saberheads of simply looking at WAR and then cherry picking reasons for DeLancey. One argument they made was DeLancey's #2 spot on the Catcher Zone Factor list...well, the Trads said Tenace is number 1, so he has to be there if that is the criteria. The Blue Dogs agreed.

Tenace is also 5th All time on the games at C list and the GS at C list, ahead of DeLancey. He also won a WS, appearing twice, and DeLancey never played in one.

Tenace led the league in HRs in 1900 with 11.

The Traditionalists looked over his career .245 BA, perhaps so that Yogi Berra would no longer have the lowest Hall BA. But the Saberheads were secretly giddy as Tenace did lead the league in walks 4 times to give him an OBP 100 pts above his BA.

Both sides think they got over on the other one by selecting Tenace.

Tenace won 2 GGs at C and was twice an all star. From 1891 through 1908 he collected 1852 hits.

Black: 13 (4)
Gray: 81 (38)
HOFm: 84 (7)
HOFs: 33 (40)

ADD: I have read complaints about WAR not taking into account positions in OOTP. With the entry of DeLancey and Tenace, both of whom are way down on the VORP list, but were the top eligible players on the WAR, and ahead of the top player on the VORP (who has 3000 hits) it is pretty clear that position is factored into the OOTP WAR.

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Old 10-17-2012, 02:00 AM   #36
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Class of 1957: Yerkes, Hartnett

And Chicken Little said, "The floor is cracking! The floor is cracking!"

Well, it isn't. But, two more from the leader boards.

Steve Yerkes was reviewed multiple times when the standards were very high and was removed from the spread sheet. He gets in by being third on the all time doubles list. If you hit a lot of doubles, you probably have a ot of other hits, also.

In a career spanning 2839 games, Yerkes batted .292 with 3185 hits, 57 home runs, 1230 RBIs and 1473 runs scored. (Yes, I now got the bright idea to CP the news announcement for the basic stats and work off of that.)

3185 hits, but had to get in from a leader board selection? He hit a lot of doubles, but didn't lead in any other category besides GS in a season. His top npa OPS + season was a 130 when he hit a slash line of 324/357/445. His career slash is 292/351/396 for a npa OPS+ of 114.

He did win 3 GGs at second base in his career that started in 1912 and ended in 1933. And he hit a lot of doubles. 4 times he hit over 50 two-baggers as he led the league in that category six times.

Black Ink: 14
Gray Ink: 139
HOFm: 196
HOFs: 52


------------

Gabby Hartnett is another candidate that just missed getting in when the standards were much higher, but was removed from the spread sheet. The committee went back and tabbed him for induction because he, again, another catcher, was the highest on either the VORP or WAR list. He gets in because of being the top player eligible on the WAR list. And he had a HOF career, too.

Yerkes was inducted by the software, Hartnett was not. But their stats are not that of floor breakers.

Over his 2199-game career, Hartnett had a lifetime .265 batting average with 118 home runs. He batted in 1069 runs and scored 954 times.

Debuting in 1910 and retiring in 1926, he won 3 GGs and two WS in 4 tries. He led the league in HRs 4 times. He caught 1992 games, 8th most, all time.

Black: 20 (0)
Gray: 103 (69)
HOFm: 120 (129)
HOFs: 33 (48)

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Old 10-17-2012, 06:41 AM   #37
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Class of 1959: Jackson

That's Shoeless Joe. He parts the corn stalks and arrives to take a spot in my Field of Dreams HOF after playing 24 seasons in the majors. I think I am liking my imaginary world better than the real one. Not that that would be anything new for me...

There were no inductions in 1958 and now the players that had the 5 year wait are becoming eligible. There won't be any floor cracking for a while. I had 2 for sure First Ballotters but only one slot, and Jackson's name came up on top, er, the selection committee chose him.

How good was Jackson? The player hierarchy is now Cobb/Jackson, then Speaker, then everyone else. Jackson put together a compsite score of 16.20, compared to Cobb's 16.27. Will post chart at end of the post and discuss it in the next.

Shoeless Joe Jackson got 200 hits in a season 13 times.
He won 12 MVP awards.
He has the longest hitting streak in GorillaBall history, 49 games.
He won a Triple Crown.
He lost a World Series while hitting .368 in 5 games for Chicago...but it was the Cubs, who can lose WS without throwing them, just fine.
He won a GG in LF.
He was the first player selected in 1928 and won ROY in 1929.
He enters the Hall as the career leader in VORP, 1589.9.
He enters the Hall as the career leader in triples, 305.
His .355 BA is second all-time to Cobb's .360.
His .424 OBP is 4th all-time.
His .549 slg% is 4th all-time.
His .971 OPS is second all time to a still active player known as "Junior".
He is 2nd all-time in Games (3318), ABs (12474), Hits (4430), TB (6851), Singles (2970), and doubles (827), trailing Cobb in each category.
His 328 HRs ties him with Jimmy Wynn for 14th all-time.

Like Cobb, he won TEN straight batting titles. He won 2 others, which gives him one more than Cobb.

In 1930 he had the best offensive season by any player, ever. Leading the league in hitting with a .446 average (best ever), he got on base at a .510 clip (2nd best ever) and slugged .787 (best ever). His 287 hits and 506 TBs are also bests in a single season, ever. A VORP of 170.4 and a WAR of 17.2 are also bests ever. I am going to go out on a limb and say his npa OPS+ of 229 is also the best ever for a season. BTW, he hit 40 doubles, 25 triples and 43 (!) HRs that year. And stole 19 bases to rub it in, a little.

His career npa OPS+ of 164 bests Cobb's 157.

Don't know which player is better. But if Cobb talks trash and says he is definitely better, Joe can tell him to stick it.

ADD: Jackson's 1.296 OPS in 1930 is also the best ever, by a lot (2nd best is 1.181).

Black: 169 (14)
Gray: 403 (186)
HOFm:546.5 (122)
HOFs: 84 (40)
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Old 10-17-2012, 06:53 AM   #38
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Discussing the Chart

With initial entrants, we see a "floor" around 6. Lots of entrants hovering around that line. In 1945 the floor broke with plots 23, 24, 25, and 26. we then see lots of plots clumping around the 4 line.

The floor broke again with DeLancey and Tenace entering at plots 63 and 65, respectively. Hartnett is not a floor breaker, but he is slanting it downward. Following this second break we will be seeing newer plots clumping significantly under the four line, just as we saw a shift of new plots from the 6 line to the 4 line previously.

The players that post the 10 and above composites will still enter, but they won't come often enough to reverse the trend. Those players are the very special best of the best once in a decade types.

Over the next few classes we will see higher scores entering as there is a bit of a backlog now in qualified hitters to go along with the pitchers, but those hitters will run out quickly and we will see lower composites getting in and more floor breaking as the composite nears an average 4 by the 2012 class.
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Old 10-17-2012, 02:05 PM   #39
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Class of 1961: Bonds, Lawrie

I do the inductions pre-season, so the 1961 season is yet to be played. 1961 is an expansion season (as will be 1962) and the season goes to 162 games. Impact?

With expansion the Black and Gray Ink will become harder to get. The Black Ink will not be affected so much because there won't be players shooting for top spots from all the added teams. It wouldn't have mattered if Sosa and McGwire played in a 50 team league in 1998, the HR race would be between those two.

However, with added teams more players are making their random debut, so the greats are now more likely to enter, and that will add to Black Ink scarcity, but the Gray Ink is what will really be affected.The players clinging to the 9th and 10th places for Gray Ink points that had no realistic expectation of leading the league in a category now will have additional competition for those slots. The Gray Ink numbers will be spread out more and as the league continues to expand. This is the number that we should see the greater decline in from the entrants. Black Ink will go down, but not as much. When we get 30 teams, then it is a different story.

---------

Are there Steroids in this league. If there are, then you know Bonds is using them. How else do you explain and additional 168 HRs over his real life total? My, Bobby...what big feet you have!

Bobby Bonds found something in the water and put up stellar numbers to be an easy entrant on the First Ballot standard (though not an Official first ballot entry).

498 HRs (5th), 3205 hits(11th), 1905 RBI (3rd), 1960 R (6th). Evidence that he bulked up is in his 291 SBs, 170 less than in real life. The sins of the Father?

Bobby Bonds was the first player taken in the 1927 draft. In 1928 he won the first of his 7 GGs, ROY, and MVP hitting 30 HRs, 54 doubles, stealing a career high (hmmmmm...who else stole lots of bases early in his career when he was rail thin??) 27 bases. His line of 355/427/625 was good for a npa OPS+ of 179.

NINE times in his career he scored and drove in 100+ runs in the same season. He was never managed by Dusty Baker, so he did win a WS.

A career slash line of 291/365/499 makes for a npa OPS+ of 134.

He had exactly 11,000 ABs in a career that lasted until 1952. However, from 1949 through 1952 he appeared in only 3 games and received just 2 ABs. I guess if REALLY wanted to get to 500 HRs he should have made those last two bats count.

Black Ink: 47 (6)
Gray Ink: 354 (132)
HOFm: 236.5 (66)
HOFs: 65 (36)

------------------

Brett Lawrie was mentioned previously. He is the first player to enter the Hall who's only major league experience is the 2011 season. He enters as an average HOFer for this world with a 5.6 composite.

He won 7 GGs at third base and collected 2961 hits from 1928 through 1946. His 357 HRs place him 14th on the career list at the time of his induction.

In 1930 he racked up 221 hits which included 33 doubles, 29 triples, and 29 home runs posting a nps OPS+ line of 156 (341/395/615). Shoeess Joe was putting together the best season ever by anyone, so Lawrie did not get an MVP that year, or any year in his career. Darn that Joe!

290/340/483, npa OPS+ of 122 are strong HOF numbers. He gets in by virtue of his Gray Ink and HOFs numbers being above the Hall average.

Black: 38
Gray: 236
HOFm: 140
HOFs : 60
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Old 10-17-2012, 10:07 PM   #40
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If I may ask, has Barry Bonds debuted in this league yet? It'd be mildly amusing if Bobby Bonds's son was his grandfather in this universe or something.
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