Preseason Predictions...

Yanksrock02 · 02-02-2015, 08:46 AM

So I always check this at the beginning of the year. I was wondering how they were generated. So I come on the forums and find that they are generated by simming 3 seasons and averaging. Now, I don't know about anybody else, but doesn't this take some of the surprise away from it? And it could be used as a cheating factor by looking at the top 10 hitters and then trading next to nothing for them. I also found this whole Preseason Prediction Injury glitch (if you want to call it a glitch.) I just want it to be more random, maybe use that Pythagorean formula. Seems that it's too realistic for me.

David Watts · 02-02-2015, 09:06 AM

What is the injury glitch?

RchW · 02-02-2015, 09:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yanksrock02

So I always check this at the beginning of the year. I was wondering how they were generated. So I come on the forums and find that they are generated by simming 3 seasons and averaging. Now, I don't know about anybody else, but doesn't this take some of the surprise away from it? And it could be used as a cheating factor by looking at the top 10 hitters and then trading next to nothing for them. I also found this whole Preseason Prediction Injury glitch (if you want to call it a glitch.) I just want it to be more random, maybe use that Pythagorean formula. Seems that it's too realistic for me.

AFAIK that is not how PS predictions are done. To my understanding the 3 season sim is for autocalc generated LTM.

I could be wrong.

Yanksrock02 · 02-02-2015, 09:16 AM

Actually RchW, you were in the thread I was reading haha. There was a debate on how it is done, and some of the moderators said that it was done that way, but Markus never commented and no proof from him was ever shown. It just feels like it is all out of my control if it is simmed 3 times. Feels like it already happened when I am in the season, granted my in season and in game strategies can affect my teams play. And sorry, I'm kind of a newbie, can you explain what LTM's are?

RchW · 02-02-2015, 09:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yanksrock02

Actually RchW, you were in the thread I was reading haha. There was a debate on how it is done, and some of the moderators said that it was done that way, but Markus never commented and no proof from him was ever shown. It just feels like it is all out of my control if it is simmed 3 times. Feels like it already happened when I am in the season, granted my in season and in game strategies can affect my teams play. And sorry, I'm kind of a newbie, can you explain what LTM's are?

I had a bad feeling about that.

Did I say or agree to the 3 year thing.

Can you link the thread please.

Yanksrock02 · 02-02-2015, 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Watts

What is the injury glitch?

Well it was in v13 IIRC. A guy reported that in his one league, he checked the preseason predictions, and his one player that one the league triple crown wasn't in the predicted top 10 hitters category. Well, as you probably guessed it by now, his player went down with a career ending injury mid season.

JoJo7 · 02-02-2015, 09:22 AM

Have you compared the predictions to the results? In my experience it's by no means been a lock that what's predicted is what happens, so I was just curious what your experience has been.

Yanksrock02 · 02-02-2015, 09:27 AM

Here's the thread:

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ictions-2.html

If you look though, Markus's quote was in v13.

Yanksrock02 · 02-02-2015, 09:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoJo7

Have you compared the predictions to the results? In my experience it's by no means been a lock that what's predicted is what happens, so I was just curious what your experience has been.

Yes it seems to be around the same, it's just that it feels that it sims three times, then you have the "real sim" so it feels kind of out of my control. Granted lineup, pitching changes, etc. do have an effect on it. I would just think that it would use that Pythagorean formula that the sabermetricians use.

Bluenoser · 02-02-2015, 09:35 AM

My experience has been that it is not too realistic at all, nor predictable, but just right.

I always compare the PSP's with actuals at seasons end. They do not present any advantage that I can see.

I find the players predicted to have good seasons are generally the players already established in the league who usually have and are expected to have good seasons anyway (barring injuries, etc).

I think any good baseball fan can sit down on opening day of MLB and give you a fairly decent list of who the top 25 hitters and pitchers will be. At the end of the season, chances are the top 10 in the league will be found on those lists.

I don't see how it's an advantage.

David Watts · 02-02-2015, 09:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluenoser

My experience has been that it is not too realistic at all, nor predictable, but just right.

I always compare the PSP's with actuals at seasons end. They do not present any advantage that I can see.

I find the players predicted to have good seasons are generally the players already established in the league who usually have and are expected to have good seasons anyway (barring injuries, etc).

I think any good baseball fan can sit down on opening day of MLB and give you a fairly decent list of who the top 25 hitters and pitchers will be. At the end of the season, chances are the top 10 in the league will be found on those lists.

I don't see how it's an advantage.

Have you ever seen any evidence of this injury glitch?

Bluenoser · 02-02-2015, 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Watts

Have you ever seen any evidence of this injury glitch?

Nope, never heard of it.

But I'm skeptical considering the sample size. Once?

Can it be repeated and verified? He seems to think it was in 13.

Yanksrock02 · 02-02-2015, 09:44 AM

.

Yanksrock02 · 02-02-2015, 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluenoser

Nope, never heard of it.

But I'm skeptical considering the sample size. Once?

Can it be repeated and verified? He seems to think it was in 13.

I agree, it was probably just a coincidence. I was just bringing it to attention for you guys to weigh in on.

Bluenoser · 02-02-2015, 09:48 AM

I will add though, and this has been verified by Markus in the past - injuries are random and not predetermined.

Injuries happen year round, not just during the season. Certainly they are more frequent during ST and regular season play, but I just can't see how, or why, you would want to program a baseball game with predetermined injuries.

RchW · 02-02-2015, 09:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yanksrock02

Here's the thread:

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ictions-2.html

If you look though, Markus's quote was in v13.

There is nothing from Markus in that thread, just some double hearsay. The discussion regarding 3 sims was never resolved via authority. I'll go on record again as saying that 3X sims are not used to generate predictions. See Sweed's comment no. 21.

LTM's are also not automatically adjusted from season to season. The misnamed autocalc is actually manny calc in that one must click the button, otherwise nothing happens.

Yanksrock02 · 02-02-2015, 09:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RchW

There is nothing from Markus in that thread, just some double hearsay. The discussion regarding 3 sims was never resolved via authority. I'll go on record again as saying that 3X sims are not used to generate predictions. See Sweed's comment no. 21.

LTM's are also not automatically adjusted from season to season. The misnamed autocalc is actually manny calc in that one must clicl the button, otherwise nothing happens.

Markus's quote:

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ml#post3288257

This quote was referring to v13.

I still agree with you Rch, based on some of the predictions that I get, it would just be hard to get those from averaging 3 seasons.

RchW · 02-02-2015, 09:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yanksrock02

Markus's quote:

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ml#post3288257

This quote was referring to v13.

I still agree with you Rch, based on some of the predictions that I get, it would just be hard to get those from averaging 3 seasons.

I stand corrected.

02-02-2015, 08:46 AM	#1
Yanksrock02 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 31	Preseason Predictions... So I always check this at the beginning of the year. I was wondering how they were generated. So I come on the forums and find that they are generated by simming 3 seasons and averaging. Now, I don't know about anybody else, but doesn't this take some of the surprise away from it? And it could be used as a cheating factor by looking at the top 10 hitters and then trading next to nothing for them. I also found this whole Preseason Prediction Injury glitch (if you want to call it a glitch.) I just want it to be more random, maybe use that Pythagorean formula. Seems that it's too realistic for me.

02-02-2015, 09:35 AM	#10
Bluenoser Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: In The Moment Posts: 13,683	My experience has been that it is not too realistic at all, nor predictable, but just right. I always compare the PSP's with actuals at seasons end. They do not present any advantage that I can see. I find the players predicted to have good seasons are generally the players already established in the league who usually have and are expected to have good seasons anyway (barring injuries, etc). I think any good baseball fan can sit down on opening day of MLB and give you a fairly decent list of who the top 25 hitters and pitchers will be. At the end of the season, chances are the top 10 in the league will be found on those lists. I don't see how it's an advantage. Last edited by Bluenoser; 02-02-2015 at 09:36 AM.

02-02-2015, 09:44 AM	#13
Yanksrock02 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 31	. Last edited by Yanksrock02; 03-29-2021 at 05:12 PM.

02-02-2015, 09:06 AM	#2
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 8,880	What is the injury glitch?

02-02-2015, 09:16 AM	#4
Yanksrock02 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 31	Actually RchW, you were in the thread I was reading haha. There was a debate on how it is done, and some of the moderators said that it was done that way, but Markus never commented and no proof from him was ever shown. It just feels like it is all out of my control if it is simmed 3 times. Feels like it already happened when I am in the season, granted my in season and in game strategies can affect my teams play. And sorry, I'm kind of a newbie, can you explain what LTM's are?

02-02-2015, 09:22 AM	#7
JoJo7 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 80	Have you compared the predictions to the results? In my experience it's by no means been a lock that what's predicted is what happens, so I was just curious what your experience has been.

02-02-2015, 09:27 AM	#8
Yanksrock02 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 31	Here's the thread: http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ictions-2.html If you look though, Markus's quote was in v13.

02-02-2015, 09:48 AM	#15
Bluenoser Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: In The Moment Posts: 13,683	I will add though, and this has been verified by Markus in the past - injuries are random and not predetermined. Injuries happen year round, not just during the season. Certainly they are more frequent during ST and regular season play, but I just can't see how, or why, you would want to program a baseball game with predetermined injuries.