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OOTP 16 - General Discussions Discuss the new 2015 version of Out of the Park Baseball here!

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Old 05-15-2015, 02:52 PM   #1
bigyunit
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Impact of pitching coach

How much impact does a pitching coach have on a staff?

I played every game with the Mariners in 2015, and while my team sucked, my pitching staff was stellar. At the end of the season my pitching coach retired.

I hired a new pitching coach with a 'Good' reputation with 'Neutral' type. (Note, on my staff now he shows as having an 'Average' reputation, but I am 99% certain he had a 'Good' reputation when I signed him.

In the offseason I made some moves, and in 2016 I trotted out the following rotation:

Felix
Scherzer
Paxton
Cueto
Happ

I am now 34 games into the 2016 season (again playing every game), and have seen a BIG jump in both walks and home runs allowed. After 34 games, the starting rotation above has allowed 28 home runs. Only the Rockies have allowed more, and my team plays in Safeco. My starters have also walked 78 batters, worst in the league.

(Note: I am leaving my bullpen out of this discussion. They were the best in the league in 2015, but I know how fickle bullpens can be.)

In 7 starts, Felix has a HR/9 rate of 1.1 (averaged 0.7 for his career) and a BB/9 of 3.2 (career average 2.5).

Scherzer has seen smaller jumps in rate (1.0 compared to 0.9 career), but has still allowed 5 HR in 7 games.

Paxton's HR/9 has jumped to 1.6 (0.8 lifetime) and his walk rate is up to 4.4 (3.3 lifetime).

Cueto is at 1.5 HR/9 (1.0 lifetime) and has allowed 7 HR in 7 starts.

Happ was the only one pitching in line with his career numbers, so of course he got injured.

Is this all just a sample size issue? Or has my crappy pitching coach done damage to my staff?
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Old 05-25-2015, 12:40 AM   #2
bigyunit
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I seriously don't know what to make of this team.

Have now played 122 games, and my team is still giving up home runs at a ridiculous rate.

My starters have now allowed 91 home runs in 122 games, more than every team other than the Rangers, Yankees and Rockies (all of whom play in home run parks).

King Felix has seen his home run rate come back down to 0.7, but the others...

Paxton: 21 HR in 24 GS, HR rate of 1.2 (previous two career seasons: 0.4 and 0.7)

Happ: 16 HR in 20 GS.

Scherzer got a little better then needed rotator cuff surgery, so I traded for Marcus Stroman.

In 15 starts for Toronto, he allowed 8 home runs.

In 10 starts for my Mariners, he has allowed 12 home runs. His HR/9 rate has more than doubled since he moved to the spacious pitchers heaven of Safeco. I assume this will eventual regress to the average like Felix and Scherzer have, but absolutely maddening, especially when I'm 1/2 game out of first, to have the numbers skew against me like this.
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Old 05-25-2015, 12:49 AM   #3
jaysdailydose
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Are they flyball pitchers? Could just be a run of bad luck... you said the studs came back to the mean. Maybe the last PC was groundball oriented and helped them keep the ball down or...

At least you aren't the worst in the league. Keep us posted.
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Old 05-25-2015, 12:51 AM   #4
sreem
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I hate to be the one to say it, but Felix is 34 in real life, 35 by now in your game? I don't think it's all that unreasonable to see his stats start to diminish a bit.
I wish I had a good feel for how much staff actually helps and hurts, but one thing to keep in mind. Just because a PC has a Good reputation doesn't mean he's a Good pitching coach.
As for Max, he's probably 32 in your game, it could just be an off season. With both of them moving up in age, I guess I'm not surprised to see stats start to trail off, regardless of who your coaching staff is.
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Old 05-25-2015, 01:23 AM   #5
NoOne
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i think the pitching coach, and coaches in general, have very little to do with success. however, i still try to have the best coaching staff possible, but it's more likely an irrational compulsion due to pride. i usually (always! lol) have power pitchers, so i make sure to have a pitching coach that favors that type of pitcher. i like 'power' hiting coaches for AAA and majors, because i *think* that's when most players develop their power. i'm still learning what's best in '16. still need to look things up to verify my thoughts.

i play detroit alot. max sherzer seems to perform poorly relative to his ratings. again, small sample size and easily false. i try to pay close attention to pitch selection and success in this game - not just a minimum to be a starter (3 or more). imo, many upper 50's to low 60's (or even a bit lower) pitchers can outperfom or equal the performance of more highly rated pitchers over a career.

even stud pitchers will vary from a 2.xx ERA to 4.xx ERA in any given year. roger clemens had a suck year 1/4 of the time (relative to his ability), and he won 300+ games. if a pitcher has a good year 1/2 the time he is probably at least in the top 1/2 of pitchers.

definitely a small sample size. pitching is incredible volatile from year to year. like others said, home ballpark and pitching tendency can reduce or increase that volatility depending on the situation.

don't trust your own intuition. you can probably find a statistical analysis of the best combination of parks and types of players (hitters/pitchers) with a google search. i read some really cool stuff about flyballs to leftfield/rightfield the other day that rocked my world - no not that amazing, but it was quite a bit different than my 'feelings' on the matter. in the case of pitchers and ballpark, i find it hard to believe that it's anything different than the obvious, but assuming is a terrible thing to do.

some guesses:
also, FB vs. GB tendency may affect volatility of performance. my guess would be that a flyball picther perfomance has slightly higher volatility from year to year. a few extra home runs can make a quick difference in an unlucky year. therefore, they can also exceed by large amounts in a lucky year. i think they are more likely to have 'amazing' years relative to their ratings. if i am right, the differences would be small, and a minor consideration relative to the big picture.

Last edited by NoOne; 05-25-2015 at 01:45 AM.
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