NFL 2019 Thread - Page 57

Cobra Mgr · 01-12-2020, 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ragnar

I don't get it.

.

Analytics say you should go for it on 4th down. Ravens went 0-4 and the 1st 2 led directly to Titans TD's.

Math ain't a good head coach.

dkgo · 01-12-2020, 10:48 AM

Please tell me you don't actually believe the words you are typing

dkgo · 01-12-2020, 10:50 AM

The Ravens were doing well until Jackson threw an interception on their first drive. Therefore teams should never throw a pass again!

Ragnar · 01-12-2020, 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dkgo

Please tell me you don't actually believe the words you are typing

Analytics are fine, but I don't think they account situational events that happen during a game. The Ravens were 100% on 4th and 1. Does that then mean you go for it from your own 5 yard line?

There was really no reason they should have gone for it on the first of those 4th and 1s. Other than what analytics said. Why the rush? Was the game getting out of hand? No. All they did was give the Titans a chance to build the lead and gain momentum. The Titans are no juggernauts. But if you give a well coached team that already believes they can win more confidence, good luck with that. That's where the coach needs to step in.

dkgo · 01-12-2020, 11:51 AM

Well, they weren't on their own 5 yard line. The risk reward changes based on field position.

You are basically saying "only go for it if you get it" which isn't really analysis or helpful. They've been going for that in similar spots all year and went 14-2 because of being aggressive. The reason to go for it is because then you can get a first down and score points. Scoring points is good. Most of the time you do get it, sometimes you don't. That's football and life. If I can roll a pair of dice and bet even money it won't come up 12 then I'm gonna do it even though it isn't impossible to hit 12.

Ragnar · 01-12-2020, 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dkgo

Well, they weren't on their own 5 yard line. The risk reward changes based on field position.

You are basically saying "only go for it if you get it" which isn't really analysis or helpful. They've been going for that in similar spots all year and went 14-2 because of being aggressive. The reason to go for it is because then you can get a first down and score points. Scoring points is good. Most of the time you do get it, sometimes you don't. That's football and life. If I can roll a pair of dice and bet even money it won't come up 12 then I'm gonna do it even though it isn't impossible to hit 12.

They've been good from that spot all year? But at what point do you take other factors into consideration? Like the team you're playing. What point in the game. You mentioned risk/reward. What is the reward for getting that yard? Another set of downs with no guarantee to score. What's the risk? Are the Titans so dangerous that trying to pin them inside their 20 was such a bad option at that time? It's not that I didn't like the play call, It's when they did it I thought was a poor choice.

You dice example is simplistic. You're given a clear cut situation. Win 50 bucks or lose 50 bucks. The same is on the line either way with the odds being in your favor. Given the situation the Ravens had a lot more to lose if they didn't get it.

Cobra Mgr · 01-12-2020, 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dkgo

Please tell me you don't actually believe the words you are typing

Please don't tell me this is the 1st time you've read a post from me.

dkgo · 01-12-2020, 03:16 PM

Probably not but I dont really remember who posts what

Meanwhile, not a great start for the chefs

Cobra Mgr · 01-12-2020, 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ragnar

Analytics are fine, but I don't think they account situational events that happen during a game. The Ravens were 100% on 4th and 1. Does that then mean you go for it from your own 5 yard line?

There was really no reason they should have gone for it on the first of those 4th and 1s. Other than what analytics said. Why the rush? Was the game getting out of hand? No. All they did was give the Titans a chance to build the lead and gain momentum. The Titans are no juggernauts. But if you give a well coached team that already believes they can win more confidence, good luck with that. That's where the coach needs to step in.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ragnar

They've been good from that spot all year? But at what point do you take other factors into consideration? Like the team you're playing. What point in the game. You mentioned risk/reward. What is the reward for getting that yard? Another set of downs with no guarantee to score. What's the risk? Are the Titans so dangerous that trying to pin them inside their 20 was such a bad option at that time? It's not that I didn't like the play call, It's when they did it I thought was a poor choice.

You dice example is simplistic. You're given a clear cut situation. Win 50 bucks or lose 50 bucks. The same is on the line either way with the odds being in your favor. Given the situation the Ravens had a lot more to lose if they didn't get it.

These are the points the sabermetric cult doesn't get. Analytics opens your eyes to possibilities you may have never considered. That's a good thing. But to run your gameplan exclusively on the numbers or to second guess every decision because the numbers say "x" is foolhardy. Raw data can't decipher the intricacies, emotions and subtle factors that go into a game.

I don't think going for it on 4th cost them the game. I also don't think going for it on 4th won them 14 games either. Fans need to stop worshiping numbers. Be balanced.

Cobra Mgr · 01-12-2020, 03:41 PM

KC taking the Plaxico Burress approach to this game. Shooting their own selves.

Cobra Mgr · 01-12-2020, 03:46 PM

Reid just hit Tyreke like he is Hill's bro-n-law.

dkgo · 01-12-2020, 04:11 PM

texans kick on fourth and inches, give up td seconds later. no one going to talk about it though

sure hope they dont wish they had a touchdown at some point, not like the chiefs have an explosive offense or anything

dkgo · 01-12-2020, 04:13 PM

guy wont try to gain ten inches but calls a ridiculous fake punt on his own half lol. these coaches are just pushing random buttons

Cobra Mgr · 01-12-2020, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dkgo

texans kick on fourth and inches, give up td seconds later. no one going to talk about it though

Cause they still got 3.

Special teams has killed/saved both teams in this game.

dkgo · 01-12-2020, 04:46 PM

three is less than seven. kicking gave the KC defense a "win"

pretty convenient that when things go wrong after going for it then math is dumb but when things go wrong after kicking then its because of everything else

Cobra Mgr · 01-12-2020, 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dkgo

three is less than seven. kicking gave the KC defense a "win"

pretty convenient that when things go wrong after going for it then math is dumb but when things go wrong after kicking then its because of everything else

I have never and will never criticize a coach for adding to the lead.

Cobra Mgr · 01-12-2020, 05:34 PM

In a little more than 20 minutes, KC has outscored Houston 41-0.

thehef · 01-12-2020, 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cobra Mgr

These are the points the sabermetric cult doesn't get. Analytics opens your eyes to possibilities you may have never considered. That's a good thing. But to run your gameplan exclusively on the numbers or to second guess every decision because the numbers say "x" is foolhardy. Raw data can't decipher the intricacies, emotions and subtle factors that go into a game.

I don't think going for it on 4th cost them the game. I also don't think going for it on 4th won them 14 games either. Fans need to stop worshiping numbers. Be balanced.

Don't disagree with any of this ^^^. I'll suggest, though - given that the Ravens led the league in both 4th down attempts and conversion rate - that if Harbaugh doesn't go for (most of) those potential 4th down attempts, and the Ravens lose, he gets criticized for going conservative and not sticking with what worked during the regular season.

There are a few scenarios where Harbaugh avoids criticism of his play-calling (& going with analytics-vs-gut). Most of those scenarios, though, include the Ravens winning the game. Go figure.

thehef · 01-12-2020, 06:00 PM

Another example brain-dead clock-management at the highest levels of the game:

Texans' coach Bill O'Brien can't decide whether or not to go for it on 4th-and-4 with 11 minutes to go in the 4th quarter, down by 17. Regardless of the choice (the obvious choice is to go for it, IMO), he has to burn a timeout - which could possibly be crucial if they are to mount a comeback - all because of his indecision (or confusion?). This is the kind of decision that should've been anticipated when it was 3rd-and-4. Pathetic, at this level.

Cobra Mgr · 01-12-2020, 06:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thehef

Another example brain-dead clock-management at the highest levels of the game:

Texans' coach Bill O'Brien can't decide whether or not to go for it on 4th-and-4 with 11 minutes to go in the 4th quarter, down by 17. Regardless of the choice (the obvious choice is to go for it, IMO), he has to burn a timeout - which could possibly be crucial if they are to mount a comeback - all because of his indecision (or confusion?). This is the kind of decision that should've been anticipated when it was 3rd-and-4. Pathetic, at this level.

Agreed. O'Brien's decision making could rightly be 2nd guessed in this game.

01-12-2020, 03:41 PM	#1130
Cobra Mgr Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2015 Location: Parts unknown Posts: 6,375	KC taking the Plaxico Burress approach to this game. Shooting their own selves. __________________ If a man is guilty 4 what goes on inside of his mind, then let me get the electric chair 4 all my future crimes. - Prince Batdance June 7, 1958 - Apr 21, 2016

01-12-2020, 03:46 PM	#1131
Cobra Mgr Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2015 Location: Parts unknown Posts: 6,375	Reid just hit Tyreke like he is Hill's bro-n-law. __________________ If a man is guilty 4 what goes on inside of his mind, then let me get the electric chair 4 all my future crimes. - Prince Batdance June 7, 1958 - Apr 21, 2016

01-12-2020, 05:34 PM	#1137
Cobra Mgr Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2015 Location: Parts unknown Posts: 6,375	In a little more than 20 minutes, KC has outscored Houston 41-0. __________________ If a man is guilty 4 what goes on inside of his mind, then let me get the electric chair 4 all my future crimes. - Prince Batdance June 7, 1958 - Apr 21, 2016

01-12-2020, 10:48 AM	#1122
dkgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 2,152	Please tell me you don't actually believe the words you are typing

01-12-2020, 10:50 AM	#1123
dkgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 2,152	The Ravens were doing well until Jackson threw an interception on their first drive. Therefore teams should never throw a pass again!

01-12-2020, 11:51 AM	#1125
dkgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 2,152	Well, they weren't on their own 5 yard line. The risk reward changes based on field position. You are basically saying "only go for it if you get it" which isn't really analysis or helpful. They've been going for that in similar spots all year and went 14-2 because of being aggressive. The reason to go for it is because then you can get a first down and score points. Scoring points is good. Most of the time you do get it, sometimes you don't. That's football and life. If I can roll a pair of dice and bet even money it won't come up 12 then I'm gonna do it even though it isn't impossible to hit 12.

01-12-2020, 03:16 PM	#1128
dkgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 2,152	Probably not but I dont really remember who posts what Meanwhile, not a great start for the chefs

01-12-2020, 04:11 PM	#1132
dkgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 2,152	texans kick on fourth and inches, give up td seconds later. no one going to talk about it though sure hope they dont wish they had a touchdown at some point, not like the chiefs have an explosive offense or anything

01-12-2020, 04:13 PM	#1133
dkgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 2,152	guy wont try to gain ten inches but calls a ridiculous fake punt on his own half lol. these coaches are just pushing random buttons

01-12-2020, 04:46 PM	#1135
dkgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 2,152	three is less than seven. kicking gave the KC defense a "win" pretty convenient that when things go wrong after going for it then math is dumb but when things go wrong after kicking then its because of everything else

01-12-2020, 06:00 PM	#1139
thehef Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 4,846	Another example brain-dead clock-management at the highest levels of the game: Texans' coach Bill O'Brien can't decide whether or not to go for it on 4th-and-4 with 11 minutes to go in the 4th quarter, down by 17. Regardless of the choice (the obvious choice is to go for it, IMO), he has to burn a timeout - which could possibly be crucial if they are to mount a comeback - all because of his indecision (or confusion?). This is the kind of decision that should've been anticipated when it was 3rd-and-4. Pathetic, at this level.