OOTP25 Historical Features

[Garlon]

This is a list of new features and updates for OOTP25 as well as a review of the various historical elements that OOTP models in historical games.

I have been playing OOTP historical games for 20 years and this current version has produced the best results of any edition.


New for OOTP25

1. New and more accurate Fielding Range ratings for all players in history.

2. New OF Arm ratings based on advanced historical fielding stats.

3. New Framing ratings for all catchers.

4. New Pitcher Hold Baserunner ratings based on advanced historical statistics.

5. New Baserunning Skills ratings based on advanced historical statistics.

6. Pitcher Splits since 1914 (not yet in the game though). We have Batter Splits since 1901.

7. New Modifier to model the distribution of Airouts between the Outfield and Infield for all seasons.

8. New Modifiers for Sac Bunting to model positions player rates, pitcher rates, and success rates each season.

9. New and improved pitcher BABIP ratings.

10. More accurate R/G each season.




These are the various elements that OOTP models per season and per player.


League Elements Each Season Based on Historical Rates

1. Batting Average

2. BABIP

3. Doubles per non-HR Hit

4. Triples per non-HR Hit

5. HR per AB

6. BB per PA

7. HBP per PA

8. OBP (indirectly by modeling the above elements accurately)

9. SLG (indirectly by modeling the above elements accurately)

10. OPS (indirectly by modeling the above elements accurately)

11. Strikeouts per AB

12. SB per times reaching First Base

13. SB success rate

14. Sac Bunts per Out (technically per Out – K)

15. Sac Bunt rates for position players

16. Sac Bunt rates for pitchers

17. Sac Bunt success rate

18. Sacrifice Flies per Out (technically per Out – K)

19. Double Play Frequency

20. GIDP frequency as a subset of all Double Plays

21. Runs per Game

22. IPouts per Game Started

23. IPouts per Relief Appearance

24. GO% (essentially GO:AO ratio)

25. Distribution of AO between the outfielders and infielders

26. Wild Pitches per Inning

27. Balks per Inning

28. Passed Balls per Inning

29. Pickoffs per Reched First base

30. XBT% (extra bases taken by players on the basepaths)

31. League FLD%

32. P FLD%

33. C FLD%

34. 1B FLD%

35. 2B FLD%

36. 3B FLD%

37. SS FLD%

38. LF FLD%

39. CF FLD%

40. RF FLD%

41. OF Assist rate

42. Ballpark Factors for BABIP, 2B, 3B, HR including LHB/RHB splits for most seasons.




Player Elements

Batting and Offense Based on Historical Player Statistics

1. BABIP

3. Rate of 2B per non-HR Hit

3. Rate of 3B per non-HR Hit

4. HR per AB

5. Strikeouts per AB

6. BB per PA

7. HBP per PA

8. BA (indirectly by modeling the above elements accurately)

9. OBP (indirectly by modeling the above elements accurately)

10. SLG (indirectly by modeling the above elements accurately)

11. OPS (indirectly by modeling the above elements accurately)

12. Baserunning Skills (frequency of taking extra bases)

13. Stealing Aggressiveness (stealing attempts per reaching first base)

14. Stealing Ability (stolen base success rate)

15. Sac Bunting frequency

16. Batting Splits vs RHP/LHP since 1901




Pitching Based on Historical Player Statistics

1. K per BF

2. HR Allowed per BF

3. BB per BF

4. HBP per BF

5. Balks per BF

6. Wild Pitches per BF

7. GO%

8. Pitcher BABIP against

9. Stamina (IPouts per Game Started or IPouts per Relief Appearance)

10. Hold Baserunners (preventing stolen base attempts)

11. Pitching Splits vs RHB/LHB since 1914 (coming soon to historical games)




Fielding and Defense Based on Historical Player Statistics

1. Infielder Range (adjusted for Team Outs in Play, Team GO%, Team Defensive Efficiency, Team Home Ballpark BABIP factor, Team LHP, and Team BABIP against)

2. Infielder Error Rate

3. Infielder Turn DP Rate (adjusted for expected team double plays based on opportunities)

4. Outfielder Range (adjusted for Team Outs in Play, Team GO%, Team Defensive Efficiency, Team Home Ballpark BABIP factor, and Team BABIP against)

5. Outfielder Error Rate

6. Outfielder Arm (assist rate adjusted for opportunities to make an assist)

7. Catcher Blocking (PB and Error rate)

8. Catcher Framing rate

9. Catcher Arm (CS rate)

10. Positional Eligibility

[Garlon]

Reserved

[R. Hansh]

Thank you for this. Glad to see better R/G.

[David Watts]

Well, so much for waiting till the All Star break to buy. Will purchase tomorrow when the game is available on Steam.

[spartacus007]

This is wonderful to hear.

[Scoman]

Music to my ears.......

[Brad K]

Garlon, does the benefit of individual player output more closely matching historical require the use of your neutralized stats file and park factors file?

[Garlon]

You should be fine with real stats and real park factors or any combination you want to use.

[Reed]

I really like the results I am getting with this version. I know a few are having some problems but overall I think it has been a very soot rollout. I like the new rating scale.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Garlon

You should be fine with real stats and real park factors or any combination you want to use.

The 24 manual endorses your stats as the most accurate. I prefer yours but the final blow preventing me using them is OOTP starting the first year at season opening not spring training when your stats are selected.

The 24 manual also warns that using real stats might result in a batter who played in a hitter friendly park being over rated. So I don't see how I'm fine with real stats unless they're neutralized.

[Brad K]

I wonder if the manual got any attention this year.

[32koufax]

Originally Posted by Brad K

The 24 manual endorses your stats as the most accurate. I prefer yours but the final blow preventing me using them is OOTP starting the first year at season opening not spring training when your stats are selected.

The 24 manual also warns that using real stats might result in a batter who played in a hitter friendly park being over rated. So I don't see how I'm fine with real stats unless they're neutralized.

Interesting point regarding neutralized stats. I created the 1961 season. Simply play for a year (think Strat-O-Matic replays) and then create a new historical season... I've done this with OOTP 24, 22, 21 and the Yankees have always underperformed. The Tigers have destroyed them at least 6 times in prior replays.
Anyway, with OOTP25, using real stats and NOT using the NEUTRALIZED option, Maris hit 80 and 70 HR's and hit over .310 in both replays. Cepeda hit 60 HR's and several other players overperformed their R/L stats.
Curiously, the Yankees beat the Tigers in these replays.
I then decided to use real stats with NEUTRALIZATON. The HR #'s looked better. Killebrew hit 60. Mick hit 54. Maris hit 49 and hit B.AVE. was almost spot on to his R/L average. Cash hit 48. Gentile 48 and so on...
Overall league numbers were excellent, but the Tigers beat NY by 7 games. Braves won the NL. Reds finished 5 back.

Jack

[pstrickert]

Feedback is always welcome. The more eyes on historical results, the better.

The Tigers finished with a Pyth W-L record 5 games short of the Yankees. So, they were a really good team in 1961. I would expect them to win their share of single-season replay AL pennants.

I just ran a 1961 sim and both the Yankees and Reds finished on top. Maris, however, only hit 47 home runs. Using real stats.

[32koufax]

I agree regarding the Tigers. They had a solid team. I did a 1960 replay and they won the AL flag and beat SF for the 1960 World Series. I went back and did 2 more '61 replays using real stats and not using NEUTRALIZED stats. The Orioles won, Yanks were 2nd and Detroit was 3rd. Power numbers were good. No 70 or 80 HR totals. Same for 2nd replay. Detroit won, NY 2nd. Solid HR stats...
Jack

[Brad K]

"I then decided to use real stats with NEUTRALIZATON."

How do you choose to neutralize real stats?

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by pstrickert

Feedback is always welcome. The more eyes on historical results, the better.

The Tigers finished with a Pyth W-L record 5 games short of the Yankees. So, they were a really good team in 1961. I would expect them to win their share of single-season replay AL pennants.

I just ran a 1961 sim and both the Yankees and Reds finished on top. Maris, however, only hit 47 home runs. Using real stats.

How did Stormin Norman do?

[Reed]

Originally Posted by Brad K

"I then decided to use real stats with NEUTRALIZATON."

How do you choose to neutralize real stats?

It's kind of a pain. Unless I did it wrong. During one of the first steps during league creation you have to select advance mode. Then check new league. There is a list of options and need to select the one with .obd, Historical .obd if I remember correctly. Then as you set up your game under historical tab you can select Neutralized stats.

I like to use neutralized stats and neutral park factors.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Reed

It's kind of a pain. Unless I did it wrong. During one of the first steps during league creation you have to select advance mode. Then check new league. There is a list of options and need to select the one with .obd, Historical .obd if I remember correctly. Then as you set up your game under historical tab you can select Neutralized stats.

I like to use neutralized stats and neutral park factors.

You selected Garlon's neutralized stats. 32Koufax post implies he used real stats and did something to neutralize them.

My theory is real stats are neutralized against the game's park factors file. I base this partly on a statement several years ago by Garlon that if you used his file with park factors other than 1.000 across the board the game neutralized them again.

Another reason for my theory is the 24 manual endorses Garlon's database as the most accurate yet the game defaults to "Real Stats." That's double talk.

[Brad K]

OMG, I criticized OOTP and everyone runs. LOL. When is the trial on the charge of blasphemy?

[LansdowneSt]

Ha! I was just waiting for Garlon to speak on the neutralized stats he does. Not sure anyone else felt the need to insert themselves to speak for him! I’ve seen the regression on real and Maris might hit better if neut stats are used threads. None of what you said was criticism per se. I just know I ran test after test and it uses real stats very well too. That’s how I did my test runs personally.