Handling New International Prospect

irishwolf88 · 06-30-2019, 12:49 AM

I just won the bidding war for an international prospect with a 60+ Potential rating at age 17. Is it better to let him sit on the international roster until he gets older OR put him right in the starting lineup of my DSL team

Curve Ball Dave · 06-30-2019, 10:48 AM

When it comes to prospects there is no one answer. Every player is different. You put him at the level you feel will be the best fit based on his skills. If you think he can hold his own in the DSL, then by all means put him there. If you think he might be better off with some seasoning, keep him in the Intl. Complex. It's your minor league system, your baseball organization. The game challenges your skill, as it should, as a personnel manager.

NoOne · 06-30-2019, 09:51 PM

there's an optimal %-success based on timing.. what that timing is .. well, that's the fun part. you could mine that data and figure it out. turn off competing factors like TCR, but you'd also want to know if TCR disproportionately affects younger players, because that would be a major factor to consider if true.

Too early definitely increases chances of dips. Same with too late in my experiences. could be wrong. lots of failures either way. i *think* i see fewer avoiding the extremes in age, relative to this decision.

i don't like them chilling in the international complex for more than a year. 17-18 is the preferred earliest age for me to promote. if they are nearly 18 when i sign them, they go straight to rookie league.

a very rare occurence is an iafa that is not only ~17 but also ~50/100 contact type developement. these are the guys that can* make it to the MLB by the time they are 18 or 19.

i've had some that were bloated ~50/100 contact and others that thrived at AA/AAA within 1/2 a season to 1 full season of quick promotions. put the toe in the water. wait for a scouting update at rookie or wherever you promoted, unless you have 1/6months or something on the reports. promote quickly and make sure ratings don't correct due to improved scouting as he moves up. only care about results if ratings are also not improving. otherwise, ignore results if ratings are improving... that is simply all that matters while in the minor leagues. rate of improvement toward potential.

Vastly improved scouting as they play and in advanced levels. some combination of age/experience/minor league level.

don't put any weight into their ratings while in the international complex and even the first ~1 year of mil career. watch it adjust. make use of those line graphs. make some inferences. a guy whose ratings are steadily crashing isn't what you thought - most likely.

BirdWatcher · 07-01-2019, 11:25 AM

I love that Curve Ball Dave said that there was "no one answer" and immediately after that is a post from NoOne with, well, some possible answers or hints towards answers.

A NoOne answer indeed.

USF · 07-01-2019, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by irishwolf88

I just won the bidding war for an international prospect with a 60+ Potential rating at age 17. Is it better to let him sit on the international roster until he gets older OR put him right in the starting lineup of my DSL team

Ive had 19 year old come in to the majors and make an impact from day 1 and others have been a bust.

redmoss2 · 07-11-2019, 10:02 AM

To anyone who have had a hotshot 19/20 y.o. in the majors - how did they get enough time in the minors to know if they were able at major league level? Did you move them up through the minors really aggressively?

chazzycat · 07-11-2019, 02:02 PM

I just delegate my minor league systems to the minor league managers/AI and it honestly doesn't really seem to hurt. I'm about 6 years into my current save, and almost all my best players were international FA, who the AI managed not to mess up. Generally, I wait until they are in AAA with at least 2.5 stars before I promote anyone to the big leagues. That is typically around ages 21-23. The AI seems to promote them fairly appropriately for their skill, as far as I can tell. The best one I had was ready to promote at age 20, which seems about right...

It feels to me like there is diminishing returns for the effort you put into micromanaging prospects. I mean, even if you do everything perfectly, they can still get smacked with a random talent change, or just fade over time.

06-30-2019, 12:49 AM	#1
irishwolf88 Bat Boy Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 5	Handling New International Prospect I just won the bidding war for an international prospect with a 60+ Potential rating at age 17. Is it better to let him sit on the international roster until he gets older OR put him right in the starting lineup of my DSL team

06-30-2019, 10:48 AM	#2
Curve Ball Dave Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Chicago Posts: 2,271	When it comes to prospects there is no one answer. Every player is different. You put him at the level you feel will be the best fit based on his skills. If you think he can hold his own in the DSL, then by all means put him there. If you think he might be better off with some seasoning, keep him in the Intl. Complex. It's your minor league system, your baseball organization. The game challenges your skill, as it should, as a personnel manager. __________________ "Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing"-Warren Spahn.

06-30-2019, 09:51 PM	#3
NoOne Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,167	there's an optimal %-success based on timing.. what that timing is .. well, that's the fun part. you could mine that data and figure it out. turn off competing factors like TCR, but you'd also want to know if TCR disproportionately affects younger players, because that would be a major factor to consider if true. Too early definitely increases chances of dips. Same with too late in my experiences. could be wrong. lots of failures either way. i think i see fewer avoiding the extremes in age, relative to this decision. i don't like them chilling in the international complex for more than a year. 17-18 is the preferred earliest age for me to promote. if they are nearly 18 when i sign them, they go straight to rookie league. a very rare occurence is an iafa that is not only ~17 but also ~50/100 contact type developement. these are the guys that can* make it to the MLB by the time they are 18 or 19. i've had some that were bloated ~50/100 contact and others that thrived at AA/AAA within 1/2 a season to 1 full season of quick promotions. put the toe in the water. wait for a scouting update at rookie or wherever you promoted, unless you have 1/6months or something on the reports. promote quickly and make sure ratings don't correct due to improved scouting as he moves up. only care about results if ratings are also not improving. otherwise, ignore results if ratings are improving... that is simply all that matters while in the minor leagues. rate of improvement toward potential. Vastly improved scouting as they play and in advanced levels. some combination of age/experience/minor league level. don't put any weight into their ratings while in the international complex and even the first ~1 year of mil career. watch it adjust. make use of those line graphs. make some inferences. a guy whose ratings are steadily crashing isn't what you thought - most likely. Last edited by NoOne; 06-30-2019 at 09:54 PM.

07-01-2019, 11:25 AM	#4
BirdWatcher Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2018 Location: Denver, Colorado Posts: 4,262	I love that Curve Ball Dave said that there was "no one answer" and immediately after that is a post from NoOne with, well, some possible answers or hints towards answers. A NoOne answer indeed.

07-11-2019, 10:02 AM	#6
redmoss2 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 42	To anyone who have had a hotshot 19/20 y.o. in the majors - how did they get enough time in the minors to know if they were able at major league level? Did you move them up through the minors really aggressively?

07-11-2019, 02:02 PM	#7
chazzycat All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 1,685	I just delegate my minor league systems to the minor league managers/AI and it honestly doesn't really seem to hurt. I'm about 6 years into my current save, and almost all my best players were international FA, who the AI managed not to mess up. Generally, I wait until they are in AAA with at least 2.5 stars before I promote anyone to the big leagues. That is typically around ages 21-23. The AI seems to promote them fairly appropriately for their skill, as far as I can tell. The best one I had was ready to promote at age 20, which seems about right... It feels to me like there is diminishing returns for the effort you put into micromanaging prospects. I mean, even if you do everything perfectly, they can still get smacked with a random talent change, or just fade over time.