the war years

markmcghee · 10-02-2011, 09:53 AM

I want to run a historical starting in 1941. I want to see what Ted Williams' stats would look like in 1961 if he'd played his entire career instead of losing his prime years to the two wars he flew in. How does OOTP handle players with huge blank years in their career? Does it fill in the missing years by interpolation/extrapolation? Thanks

Garlon · 10-02-2011, 12:43 PM

Use the neutralized stats option for player ratings. The neutralized stats DB has all gap years filled for players in the DB. For the WWII years we took special care in projecting player performance by using the average of their stats from 3 years before and 3 years after WWII. We also set the projected league output for 1942-1945 to the average of 1939-1941 + 1967-1948.

I just ran a sim last night 1901-2009. I was using 20 teams instead of 16 for 1901-1960 though.

Ted Willams ended up with 702 HRs.

sprague · 10-02-2011, 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garlon

Use the neutralized stats option for player ratings. The neutralized stats DB has all gap years filled for players in the DB. For the WWII years we took special care in projecting player performance by using the average of their stats from 3 years before and 3 years after WWII. We also set the projected league output for 1942-1945 to the average of 1939-1941 + 1967-1948.

I just ran a sim last night 1901-2009. I was using 20 teams instead of 16 for 1901-1960 though.

Ted Willams ended up with 702 HRs.

hey garlan
this neutralized stats setting for players, is that only for OOTP12 or can that be found in OOTP11 as well?

It has me very curious
oh wait
this might be a database you have yourself that is set up with neutralized stats....correct?

Garlon · 10-02-2011, 05:34 PM

It's part of OOTP11 and OOTP12. You can choose to base player ratings on their real life stats or their 750-run environment neutralized stats. The neutralized stats is the way to go every time. I would also suggest using 3-yr recalc. 3-yr recalc will base a players ratings on 3-yr spans instead o just th year in question. So if you are played the 1950 season, it will look at a players stats from 1949-1951 to generate his ratings and therefore abilities. The larger sample size makes the outcomes more stable and realistic.

The neutralized player stats also take into account Park Factors. So players who played half their games in poor hitters ballparks will rate better than they would if you used their real stats.

The neutralized stats do not impact league output, it just affects player ratings. 1950 will still play like 1950 even with neutralized stats.

markmcghee · 10-03-2011, 05:36 PM

Thanks for the quick reply. I created a fresh 1941 league using normalize setting. I noticed something weird. All the pitchers in the league have horrible ratings. I use 100 scale for ratings and not a single starter in the league has better than 25 control rating or 20 stuff rating! I manually played a few games into the schedule just to see if these rating were real and every game featured teams with double digit walks. I did a pre-season prediction and the walks were totally whacked, one of the top ten starters had 350 walks. Is there some sort of gotcha when setting up a league using normalize settings that would cause this. I am nearly certain that I must've overlooked something. Thanx.

I think I found the problem. I had selected the 5 year recalc, figuring it would give a better average over the war years. Apparently not. When I did like you recommended and used the 3 year recalc, this fixed the horrible pitcher glitch. Thanx again.

10-02-2011, 09:53 AM	#1
markmcghee Minors (Double A) Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Ft.Lauderdale Posts: 143	the war years I want to run a historical starting in 1941. I want to see what Ted Williams' stats would look like in 1961 if he'd played his entire career instead of losing his prime years to the two wars he flew in. How does OOTP handle players with huge blank years in their career? Does it fill in the missing years by interpolation/extrapolation? Thanks

10-03-2011, 05:36 PM	#5
markmcghee Minors (Double A) Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Ft.Lauderdale Posts: 143	Thanks for the quick reply. I created a fresh 1941 league using normalize setting. I noticed something weird. All the pitchers in the league have horrible ratings. I use 100 scale for ratings and not a single starter in the league has better than 25 control rating or 20 stuff rating! I manually played a few games into the schedule just to see if these rating were real and every game featured teams with double digit walks. I did a pre-season prediction and the walks were totally whacked, one of the top ten starters had 350 walks. Is there some sort of gotcha when setting up a league using normalize settings that would cause this. I am nearly certain that I must've overlooked something. Thanx. I think I found the problem. I had selected the 5 year recalc, figuring it would give a better average over the war years. Apparently not. When I did like you recommended and used the 3 year recalc, this fixed the horrible pitcher glitch. Thanx again. Last edited by markmcghee; 10-03-2011 at 05:52 PM.

10-02-2011, 12:43 PM	#2
Garlon Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 3,753	Use the neutralized stats option for player ratings. The neutralized stats DB has all gap years filled for players in the DB. For the WWII years we took special care in projecting player performance by using the average of their stats from 3 years before and 3 years after WWII. We also set the projected league output for 1942-1945 to the average of 1939-1941 + 1967-1948. I just ran a sim last night 1901-2009. I was using 20 teams instead of 16 for 1901-1960 though. Ted Willams ended up with 702 HRs.

10-02-2011, 05:34 PM	#4
Garlon Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 3,753	It's part of OOTP11 and OOTP12. You can choose to base player ratings on their real life stats or their 750-run environment neutralized stats. The neutralized stats is the way to go every time. I would also suggest using 3-yr recalc. 3-yr recalc will base a players ratings on 3-yr spans instead o just th year in question. So if you are played the 1950 season, it will look at a players stats from 1949-1951 to generate his ratings and therefore abilities. The larger sample size makes the outcomes more stable and realistic. The neutralized player stats also take into account Park Factors. So players who played half their games in poor hitters ballparks will rate better than they would if you used their real stats. The neutralized stats do not impact league output, it just affects player ratings. 1950 will still play like 1950 even with neutralized stats.