The 2023 (and beyond) Tampa Bay Rays

[Art Deco]

Started the offseason with a couple of deals, one big and one small.

The small one:



We were non-tendering Poche anyway but I shopped him first to see if anyone would offer something for him and sure enough the Cards offered up Burleson who actually has a pretty decent bat with 70 contact and 55 power. He's been stuck at AAA the past three years with only cups of coffee each season with St. Louis. Burleson's a lefty hitter which doesn't fit our roster well since we already have Austin Wells in the role of lefty-hitting backup OF but he gives us an extra asset.

And here was the big deal:



Of the group I was considering trading (Arozarena, Bethancourt, Paredes, Diaz), Yandy was the only one who drew real interest as well as he should given he's one of the game's top OBP guys. But he was making $10M and we needed to free up our 1B/DH logjam to make room for the likes of Jung and Manzardo. So off he goes and in exchange we get a very good starting pitcher. We did have options to fill the open spot in the rotation but none are good as Brash, who is coming off a hell of a season:



The control and stamina are issues to be sure but starters with 75 stuff don't grow on trees and we have multi-inning guys like Pepiot and Perkins to take over in the 6th.

Meanwhile we were offered nothing for Bethancourt so I'll probably non-tender him and go with either Rene Pinto or a veteran to back up Patrick Bailey. Paredes was re-signed at $5M to avoid arbitration as was Arozarena at $10M since we didn't get a lot offered for him coming off the down season. Just going to have to hope he bounces back.

There were also a couple of big early-November deals in MLB as Cleveland is apparently slashing payroll. First they sent 2B Andres Gimenez to the Twins for a package of prospects led by pitcher Chase Dollander, and then they shipped Triston McKenzie, coming off 3 straight 3+ WAR seasons and just signed to an extension, to Seattle for another prospect package led by pitcher Tanner Witt as the Mariners fill the Matt Brash hole in their rotation.

Awards season:

Gold Glove: We did have a winner but not the one I expected. Shane McClanahan took the AL pitcher award but Jose Siri (whom I voted for) lost out to Parker Meadows for the CF nod despite leading the AL in ZR at the position.

Reliever of the Year: Houston's Ryan Pressly took home the AL award after a brilliant 45-save, 1.99 ERA, 3.6 WAR season while Edwin Diaz was also a no-brainer in the NL with 47 saves, a 1.32 ERA and an amazing 4.2 WAR as a reliever, coming back strong from missing all of 2023 with his WBC celebration injury.

Silver Slugger: No winners for us.

Rookie of the Year: Boston's Cedanne Rafaela won in the AL after a .300-14-80, 4.1 WAR season with our Jace Jung taking third thanks to his first half in Detroit and big September with us. In the NL Colorado's Zac Veen was an unanimous winner after a huge .328-16-63, 31 SB, 6.1 WAR season.

Cy Young: Luis Castillo was a near-unanimous winner in the AL after a 14-9, 2.70 season with the only skunk at the party being me who voted for McClanahan who finished fourth. Newly-acquired Matt Brash placed fifth. The NL award went to Atlanta's Spencer Strider with 23 first-place votes thanks to a 15-9, 3.28 season with 227 whiffs in 186 IP.

MVP: Seattle's Julio Rodriguez took the AL trophy and while his .292-28-81 line isn't awe-inspiring his 75 steals and 8.1 WAR were in what turned out to be a Rickey Henderson-like season. Philly's Trea Turner took a narrow NL vote (19-11, 365-324) over Atlanta's Matt Olsen as he hit .347-33-92 with an MLB-best 8.2 WAR. Olsen led MLB in total bases, had a 1.021 OPS, led the majors with 50 HR and had 133 RBI, good for 7.8 WAR.

November 24: Relievers were on the move as the Jays sent closer Jordan Romano to Houston for an OF prospect and Milwaukee dealt Devin Williams to the Mets for a couple of minor leaguers.

Having traded Yandy, the AI GMs of other teams are offering us 1B in trade and an amusing one came from Houston which wanted to send us Jose Abreu for Zach Eflin and prospect Brock Jones, which I declined.

November 25: Arbitration hearings were held and we ended up paying about $2M extra in total for McClanahan, Siri and Ryan Thompson. Our payroll now sits at a shade under $110M so we have about $28M to spend.

Another trade for us:



We add to our pitching depth with Canterino, who had a sneaky-good year with Washington despite an unsightly 4.93 ERA. He was a BABIP victim (.336) with the Nats with a decent 62/144 BB/K ratio in 137 IP and he kept the ball in park (12 HR). That was all good for an impressive 2.8 WAR last year. Right now he's probably depth at Durham despite proving himself as an MLB starter but pitching injuries happen and they happen often. The price wasn't bad as Busch was someone surplus to our requirements given all the 1B-types we have and he didn't do well at Durham after being sent down by us in May (211/370/423, at least he drew walks).

Amusing side note: While shopping Busch I noticed the Pirates were trying to get rid of their Bryan Reynolds contract and briefly entertained the thought of shipping them Arozarena along with Busch for Reynolds which they would have accepted. As much as an improvement that would be and even though we could afford Reynolds' $24M contract this year with Randy going the other way, I did not want to be on the hook after 2025 for $28M/year through 2030.

November 28: The free agents are now freed, and the international class, where you can often find bargains relative to their MLB counterparts, was a dud this year with nobody worth signing.

November 29: San Diego sent Yu Darvish, who missed much of 2024 with a torn labrum, to Detroit for a couple of players including C Jake Rogers.

November 30: Here's a biggie: Cleveland sent young SS Bryan Rocchio to Toronto for Bo Bichette, who is headed into his final year of team control. It's strange because the Guardians began the winter offloading a couple of big names in Gimenez and McKenzie. And Toronto then shipped out veteran starter Kevin Gausman to Texas for 6 minor leaguers.

December 2: First big free agent signing of the winter is former Dodger C Will Smith joining the Mets on a 5/124 deal. Guess they weren't sold on Francisco Alvarez. Meanwhile let the Diego Cartaya era begin in LA.

December 4: Cleveland acquired 2B Nico Hoerner from the Cubs for prospect Christian Cairo, son of MLB veteran Miguel (and who played Little League ball with one of my sons).

December 7: The first of our free agents signs elsewhere and it's the big one as Zach Wheeler joins the Red Sox on a 4/88 deal.

December 9: The rival Cards and Cubs hooked up on a deal that saw Chicago send Seiya Suzuki to St. Louis for a couple of prospects with the Cubs retaining 100% of Suzuki's salary.

December 11: The Cards continue collecting outfielders as they acquire Anthony Santander from Baltimore for top prospect Joshua Baez (a Rays standout later in the decade in my 2021 save)

December 12: In a shocking upset of a free agent signing the Kansas City Royals of all teams grabbed the top FA on the market, inking OF Juan Soto to a 5/175 pact, which also seems a bit light and short of term considering he's only 26. Guess he'll have another big payday in 2029-30.

December 13: And there goes Jalen Beeks. A weapon out of the pen who had 244 whiffs over the last two years for us, he signed a big 2/36 deal with the Mets who have him listed as a starter despite his 35 stamina. The Cubs meanwhile signed the second-rated free agent on the market, swiping veteran 1B Paul Goldschmidt from the Cards on a 2/62 deal. The 37-year-old slowed down a little in 2024, dropping him his 6 WAR average of 22/23 to 3.6 but still had 36 HR and 121 RBI.

December 15: The draft lottery results were announced and the big winners were the Rockies, who jumped from 10th to 1st. Cleveland also came up large, leaping from 15th to 3rd. Milwaukee was the big loser, dropping from 1st to 6th.

December 16: A couple of veteran starters found new homes as Frankie Montas joined the Mets for 5/62 and Pablo Lopez landed with Atlanta with a 3/31 deal. The Cubs sent 1B Matt Mervis to Miami for pitching prospect Evan Fitterer and a minor league SS.

December 18: The top free agent catcher, Danny Jansen, is White Sox-bound on a huge 7/151 deal.

December 20: Added 1B Kyle Manzardo, IF Tommy Saggese, IF Carson Williams, and P Matthew Peguero to the 40-man roster.

All no-brainers with Manzardo and Williams top-100 prospects, Saggese close to it, and Peguero could be in our bullpen next year. There are some guys I'm afraid of losing (Ronny Simon, Isaiah Campbell, Alex Ayala Jr., Heriberto Hernandez and Franklin DaCosta to name a few) in tomorrow's Rule 5 draft but such is life.

Well we did lose a couple of players in the Rule 5 draft but nobody we'll miss. Brendan McKay, our first-round pick back in 2017 who never panned out due to injuries, was taken by San Francisco, and Mitch Haniger, whom we signed to an MiLB deal early last season and spent the entire year at Durham (much of it on the bench), was taken by the Angels.

December 28: AL Reliever of the Year Ryan Pressly signed with the White Sox for 2/22.

December 29: The biggest free agent still on the market signed today as SS Tim Anderson joined the Diamondbacks on a 4/119 deal. Also old friend Yonny Chirinos joined the Angels for 1/2.8.

[Art Deco]

January 2: The Dodgers sent three prospects to Baltimore for their star CF Cedric Mullins and got the Orioles to retain his entire salary.

January 5: Washington signed slugging OF Tesocar Hernandez to a 4/69 deal.

January 7: So much for the Diego Cartaya era in LA as the Dodgers traded him to Pittsburgh for IF Jared Triolo. Triolo has a decent bat but this seems like a fleece. I had also forgotten LA signed a really good indy league C, Steve Cooper, last year and he's their starter.

January 9: A big swap sees the White Sox trade frontline starter Dylan Cease to the Mets for a couple of prospects including #39 overall C Kevin Parada, the Mets' first-round pick in 2022.

January 14: Interesting trade of young players as the Royals sent 3B Cayden Wallace, who hit .262-21-73 as a rookie, and a couple of lesser prospects to Washington for SP MacKenzie Gore who was a rough 9-19, 4.71 last year for the Nats.

January 15: The Hall of Fame balloting is in:

1B Todd Helton 85.5 (7th year) Inducted HOF
3B Adrian Beltre 68.1 (2nd year)
RF Ichiro Suzuki 67.8 (1st year)
CL Billy Wagner 63.1 (10th year) Dropped
C Joe Mauer 61.8 (2nd year)
SP CC Sabathia 54.9 (1st year)
CF Carlos Beltran 53.6 (3rd year)

Congrats to Helton and a good showing for Ichiro in his first time on the ballot.

January 16: Big trade between the Giants and Jays as they send former Ray Curtis Mead as well as OF LaMonte Wade Jr. to Toronto for C/OF Daulton Varsho. Mead didn't quite live up to his prospect hype from the Rays system in his rookie year with San Francisco, hitting 245/279/413 with 8 HR in 184 AB.

January 22: Matt Carpenter, who hit 39 HR for the Yankees in his second tour of duty with them last season, signed a 2/39 deal with the Rockies.

January 25: We signed our first international free agent of the signing period, 16-year-old Alejandro Vasario of Venezuela:



Looks like the Kyle Schwarber/Joey Gallo model.

January 28: Stuart Sternberg has bumped up the budget $10M in a rare spot of generosity. Additionally we signed a much more exciting IFA in 17-year-old Nelson Maldonado from the Dominican Republic:



He has all the tools and the potential to do everything well, even sacrifice bunt! Plus he puts in a great effort. "Elite" and "Potential to make multiple trips to the All-Star game" say the scouts.

January 30: One more IFA signed - Venezuelan 1B Luis Vargas who does have 5* potential with 55 contact and 75 power

February 4: Eric Hosmer, who turned his flagging career around with consecutive .300 seasons with the Cubs and Houston, signed a 2/28 deal with the Yankees.

February 5: Signed C Christian Bethancourt to a 1-year, $1.8M contract.

He's baaaack! After good showings in 22 & 23 CB had a down year with us last year and we of course didn't want to pay him the $5.5M he would have commanded in arbitration so we waited him out and got him at a discount. That said he was the best FA catcher still on the market so I think we got a deal. He'll back up Patrick Bailey. To make room on the 40-man Rene Pinto, who would have been out of options and would have to go through waivers anyway, was DFA'd.

February 7: The other half of our catching tandem the last few years has gone elsewhere as Francisco Mejia signed a minor league deal with Seattle.

February 8: MLB expanded the active roster from 26 to 27.

I do this in all my saves so I figured it would be time to do it in this one. Always like carrying the extra pitcher.

March 2: Some straggler free agents signed one-year deals: Michael Conforto (BOS, 4.2); Carlos Carrasco (CLE, 3.1); Eugenio Suarez (COL, 5.7); Harrison Bader (COL, MiLB); Marcus Stroman (CLE, MiLB); and Omar Narvaez (BAL, MiLB)

March 5: Another of our free agents goes elsewhere as Manuel Margot stays in the state with the Marlins for $2.7M while Jean Segura joins Milwaukee for $3.3M. Michael Brantley signed a minor league deal with San Francisco.

March 6: Shane McClanahan had to leave his spring training start with shoulder inflammation and will be out a month, so his season debut will be delayed. Elsewhere Yoan Moncada joins Baltimore for $5.5M and the Phillies have lost Bryce Harper for 5-6 months with a torn labrum.

March 9: The Orioles continue to bargain shop the free agent bin, adding SP Miles Mikolas for $4.8M, SP Sonny Gray for $1.6M and OF Adam Duvall for $3.3M. Elsewhere the Dodgers gave newly-acquired and former Oriole CF Cedric Mullins a 3/60 extension.

March 14: A couple of vets signed one-year-deals: SS Brandon Crawford joins the Angels for $7.5M and OF Joey Gallo is a Phillie for $5.2M.

March 23: The Marlins will be without ace Sandy Alcantara for the year with shoulder inflammation.

March 26: Signed C Yasmani Grandal and OF Marcell Ozuna to minor league contracts.

Depth moves adding a couple of veterans, we could use a RH bat in reserve and Ozuna will help there as he still had 20 HR in about 350 AB for Atlanta last year.

[Art Deco]

We went 16-9-3 in Spring Training for what it's worth. Some preseason stats:



A bunch of our prospects sit at the top of this board. Miguel Vargas had quite the miserable spring.



Shane Baz had a great spring and earned a long relief spot in the bullpen. Ryan Thompson did not.

So here's how the OD roster shakes out:

C-Bailey, Bethancourt
1B-Jung
2B-B.Lowe
SS-W.Franco
3B-Paredes
IF-Doughty(*), Manzardo(*)
LF-Arozarena
CF-Siri
RF-J.Lowe
OF-A.Wells(*)
DH-Vargas

*Doughty will platoon with J.Lowe in RF, Wells can also play 1B and catch and Manzardo will get DH at-bats against some righties.

SP-McClanahan, Eflin, Brash, Rasmussen, Springs
LR-Baz, Pepiot
MR-Perkins, Moran, Cleavinger, Juenger
SU-Doval, Adam
CL-Fairbanks

McClanahan managed to come back in time to make a start in a spring training game so he makes the opening roster but won't start until the second or third game.

The only player we had to DFA due to being out of options was Jonathan Aranda, who had become a forgotten man in the organization and whom will likely clear.

Tough cuts: Alec Burleson, whom you can see raked in the exhibition games but doesn't have Wells' versatility while both are lefty hitters, and Matt Canterino, who took over in the rotation for McClanahan and pitched well. It's good to have depth.

The preseason predictions:



I'd say the picks are down on us but they're kind of down on the whole AL with no team projected to win 90 games and only two in the NL with that distinction and they top out at 92.

Opening Day:



The kids were alright as the Rays took an Opening Day win over the Giants. Patrick Bailey in his first Tampa Bay at-bat hit a 2-run homer against Logan Webb and his former teammates to tie the game up and after Wander Franco hit the first of his two homers to put the Rays ahead, Kyle Manzardo came through with a big RBI single in his MLB debut to make it 4-2. Zach Eflin settled down after a rough first couple of innings and the bullpen was solid to get the season off to a good start.

Last season I went bi-monthly with the updates but this year I think I'll go monthly so look for something a little sooner.

[Art Deco]

Record: 12-13
3rd place AL East, 2 games behind Toronto.

Not the greatest of starts but fortunately for the Rays the AL East remains as mediocre as it did last year so we're not in any kind of hole. The month was a tale of two halves as after an Opening Day triumph the Rays went 2-8 but bounced back to go 9-5 over the final two weeks of the month, briefly getting to .500 before losing on the final day.

And we made a couple of major trades, acquiring one of the more exciting young players in baseball in the first one:



I was doing my usual due diligence shopping players around and noticed that 2023 2nd-round pick Ashton Larson (the #59 overall prospect) was drawing a lot of interest around the league and that in other shop attempts Cincinnati was making Elly De La Cruz available. You didn't have to ask me twice to complete this deal and it only took throwing in Hunley, a 5th starter if you squint hard, to get it done. The massive 6'5" De La Cruz is an athletic freak with 60 contact (65 potential) and 65 power to go along with 70 speed and plays a competent (55) 3B. He was acquired on the 21st and paid immediate dividends in a game with Oakland as he went 5-for-6 with 2 homers, including a game-tying 2-run shot in the bottom of the 13th after Oakland scored twice in the top of inning, a steal, and 4 RBI in an 8-7 win.

Of course you may be saying "Wait, don't you already have a power-hitting 3B named Isaac Paredes?". And to the answer to that would be "yes, but not any longer":



Paredes was off to a miserable 170/291/277 start with 1 homer in 15 games, although these deals were more the result of De La Cruz being available then souring on Paredes. But I was heavily skeptical of Paredes duplicating his 36-HR, 103-RBI 2024 especially as he's only rated 40 for contact. Add that to the fact he'll be due nearly $10M in arbitration next year and it wasn't that tough to part with him. The question of course then became what to get for him and Pittsburgh made the best offer with Acuna, the younger brother of Atlanta superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. Luisangel, primarily a MI who can also play some OF, didn't seem to fit a particular need with B.Lowe and Wander covering 2B & SS and he was assigned to Durham after the trade. But in that same game De La Cruz went nuts against Oakland, Wander left with elbow inflammation and will be out until around the first of June so Acuna was summoned to take over SS and responded by going 7-24 with a couple of homers to finish out the month. Given his versatility, he should be useful as he's a solid 50-55 in all the hitting categories, a 70 basestealer, 55 at 2B, 45 at SS and 60 in the OF corners.



What a start for the Twins, led by all-world SS Carlos Correa. Otherwise nobody's running away with anything in the AL so if the Rays can hold serve until Wander returns (he was one of their few bright spots over the first couple of weeks), they'll be OK.



As befits a team on the wrong side of .500 the Rays are mediocre-to-poor in most categories and they've been especially challenged getting on base. You'll see the details in a moment as numerous players with a track record are off to lousy starts. The team defense has been really bad, uncharacteristic of this Rays era, with the injured Wander one of the culprits as he sports a -3.5 ZR and already made four errors at SS, and has dragged the pitching numbers down as you can see they're up there in WAR and first in whiffs.



The lineup's been in constant flux, especially at 1B/DH/RF with a mix of Jung, J.Lowe, Manzardo and Wells, and lately Jung and Wells have been getting the playing time at the expense of Manzardo and Lowe who are off to miserable starts. The Lowes in particular have been Lowe-sy as Brandon only has one homer, which he finally hit late in the month and has done little else. Jung got off to a real slow start but was our hottest hitter late in the month including homers in three consecutive games. Manzardo meanwhile may find himself back in Durham before long.



Egads has Zach Eflin been bad after a couple of solid seasons. Those numbers include a decent opening day start which he won so you can understand how horrible he's been after that. And with him pulling down $18M this year he's essentially untradeable. But that doesn't mean he can't lose his rotation spot as Shane Baz has pitched very well in long relief, as has Ryan Pepiot. The other starters who have struggled some are BABIP victims while the defense seems to play great behind Rasmussen. Matt Brash has been as advertised after a slow first couple of starts.

Down on the farm:



Had we not just acquired Acuna I might have turned to Carson Williams to play SS in place of Wander as he'd at least provide a good glove at the position and he can at least hit some. Junior Caminero is having a ridiculous first month at Durham (11 HR) but we don't quite have a place for him at the moment.

So let's see how we survive May without Wander and we'll check back in.

[Art Deco]

Record: 27-27 (15-14 for the month)
3rd place AL East, 5 games behind; 2 1/2 out of 3rd wild card

Last month I wrote "Otherwise nobody's running away with anything in the AL so if the Rays can hold serve until Wander returns, they'll be OK". Well they held serve in the sense that they stayed around .500 but the Jays got red-hot late in the month and closed it on a 9-game win streak to open up a 5-game lead on the Rays in the AL East. Wander actually returned a week early from his injury and perhaps not coincidentally they won 5 of the 7 games after he returned.

It was a dull month transaction-wise although there was a lot of lineup shuffling. Austin Wells started the month hot but lost his job, Jace Jung never got untracked and saw his PT diminished, and Kyle Manzardo, who was close to being optioned back to Durham, got hot around mid-month and became a lineup fixture. The offense remains the big problem though as in addition to the strugglers named above, franchise stalwarts Brandon Lowe and Randy Arozarena haven't hit much. I considered trading B.Lowe on more than one occasion and turning 2B over to Luisangel Acuna but I didn't get too many offers I liked and also felt that Lowe owed us some positive regression. He had a double and triple in the final game of the month and maybe that's the start of a corner being turned. Maybe.





Mediocrity is thy name, although the pitching has been very good and would have even better numbers if the defense wasn't so lousy. We lead the league in strikeouts and pretty much have to in order to keep runs off the board.



As mentioned Manzardo had a good month and worked his way back into the lineup, Cade Doughty hit well in limited action and may play some against righties, and Elly De La Cruz is everything we hoped he'd be (except maybe he could hit a few more homers). Even Arozarena showed some signs of life after a dismal start but we need more than one homer/month. Beyond that it's ugly with the catchers a black hole of offense and Jung may be the biggest disappointment with his 70 contact and 55 power not translating. Like I mentioned with respect to B.Lowe, these bats are due for some positive regression since they all rate well but it's getting frustrating waiting for it.



These are the much more pleasant numbers to look at and the move to drop Zach Eflin from the rotation in favor of Ryan Pepiot has paid off handsomely as you can see from the stats above with Pepiot having the best month of all the rotation. Jeffrey Springs has also turned it around from a brutal April.



Junior Caminero continues to be the bright light in the system this year, having a whale of a year at Durham. Defensively he's better suited to 2B and could also be a potential B.Lowe replacement before long. Brock Jones down at #18 is also having a fine year and he looks like Josh Lowe 2.0 with his combo of good power/eye/OF play and mediocre contact.

So as June approaches it's time to start making our move and have a winning month - with Wander back and the pitching in form there is some room for optimism.

[Art Deco]

Record: 42-36 (15-9 for the month)
2nd place AL East, 1/2 game behind; 1/2 game behind third wild card

It was a good month for the Rays which saw one major trade of a franchise cornerstone of the last 6-7 years and one key player go on the IL. First, the trade:



Brandon Lowe's struggles continued into the first part of June, and I just couldn't take it any longer (3-17 in 6 games with no XBH, making him 212/296/307 for the season) so I figured I'd better move him before his value drops even more. And as much as I would have preferred not to trade him to a division rival the Yankees made the best offer with Winn, whom they had acquired the year previous from St. Louis in a deal which sent Luis Severino to the Cardinals. Winn is the anti-B.Lowe: more contact, fewer whiffs, (much) better defense but less power and patience. He's also younger and cheaper. Winn's best position is 3B but Elly De La Cruz is there so he's taken Lowe's spot at 2B where he'll also play above-average D. The key player going on the IL is closer Pete Fairbanks, who has a terrible history of staying healthy and this time he has a rotator cuff strain which will sideline him through mid-late August. Jason Adam will ascend to the closer role with Camilo Doval (who had a remarkable 10.2 1 1 0 3 17 line for June) and Hayden Juenger setting him up.

On the field it was a very good month which saw the pitching continue to excel and the bats got going to some extent. De La Cruz continues to hit, although for more doubles and a higher average than the HRs I expected from him and Miguel Vargas remained our most consistent hitter with a good month (340/379/567 with 5 HR & 19 RBI). Austin Wells bounced back to have a breakout month of his own (328/386/639). And as mentioned at the top, we climbed back into the thick of the division and wild card races:





The YTD offensive numbers remain mediocre, but we did score 5 runs/game in June (119 in 24 games, we had 6(!) off-days in the month which is going to catch up to us in the second half).

As we're just about at the halfway mark of the season, I'll go with the YTD instead of monthly stats for more perspective:



Winn has looked good since coming over around the 10th. Christian Bethancourt has started to take more playing time from Patrick Bailey as the former has hit while the latter hasn't, and also has handled the staff better. Still can't get Arozarena, J.Lowe or Jung untracked as I rotate them in and out of the lineup along with Manzardo, who has shown better than the other three. Still think we're due for more positive regression from the bats as a whole.



No complaints about the pitching staff as they continue to get it done (only 78 runs allowed in June, or 3.25/game). Zach Eflin remains a lost cause (and a sunk cost of $18M) as he's also struggled in long relief/mop-up duty.



Our top advanced hitting prospects (Caminero and C.Williams) continue to have great seasons and could be factors next year and Brock Jones keeps moving up the charts. Thankfully we're fairly deep in pitching at the big-league level as we don't have any sure-fire arms in the system.

[Art Deco]

We were wheeling and dealing in July plus there was the draft and the all-star festivities, so rather than try to cram them into the monthly recap they'll get their own post.

A transaction timeline:

July 4: Extended the contracts of AGM Peter Bendix 4 years and Pitching Coach Kyle Snyder 3 years.

They've done fine work, especially Snyder who's one of the best in the business.

July 13: We made this blockbuster prospect trade:



Trading the #6 prospect in the game for the #35 prospect (and throwing in a mid-level prospect to boot) doesn't seem like the greatest deal but we're taking the (fairly) sure thing here who is just about MLB-ready in exchange for the possibly insanely-great guy who's likely 4-5 years away and has more of a chance of flaming out. Gracia has the potential combination of 80 contact and 75 power so he could become a superstar but he's also an 18-year-old who's hit .150 in 98 DSL games so far and a 1B who will never provide defensive value. Chourio meanwhile is this:



He could play in the bigs right now given his current ratings and put up a 5.1 WAR season in AA last year. He's struggled this year in AA but I think that's more frustration and bad luck than anything else. But Chourio is the full package: contact, power, speed and defense and should become a star himself. For now we have hit at AA Montgomery since the OF at Durham is full as is the OF with the big club. But I already have him penciled in to take Randy Arozarena's spot in 2026.

July 21: Had to get this guy off the roster:



Eflin did not take well to the bullpen after losing his starter gig, and had a 6.40 ERA in the final year of what was an albatross-like $18M contract. Cincinnati offered me a fellow struggler in Sanmartin, but he's a lefty rated 50/60/55 as a starter (with 60 potential control) making the minimum who should only get a modest raise in arbitration next year. Sanmartin went to Durham where he's made a couple of good starts (of course so has Eflin for the Reds, which figures).

July 23: Looking to upgrade the team defense, I made this swap and brought back a guy I had wished I'd never traded in the first place:



Auer was our 5th-round pick in 2021 and developed as speed/defense guy with enough pop and contact to be a potentially valuable player. He was the prospect I traded last year to the Cubs to rent Zack Wheeler for the stretch drive last season. While Wheeler pitched well for us he didn't help us get deep in the playoffs and after seeing Auer put up 2.4 WAR for the Cubs in 90 games in his rookie season I had some major regrets. Wells meanwhile had earned himself a regular job against righties and hit 13 HR in 224 AB for us, but his defense in LF was brutal and overall our team defense has been poor (I made a position swap to address that as well which I'll get into in the monthly recap post next). So we gave up a little bit of offense to get this package:



Auer has elite wheels and in those 90 games with the Cubs had already stolen 30 bases to go with a 274/353/400 batting line. He's become our full-time RF which allows Arozarena to move back to LF where he's better, and the Arozarena-Siri-Auer OF is now one of the league's best defensively. So glad to have him back.

July 24: While we were shopping Wells and Gracia around I kept noticing this guy being made available by the Marlins:



Jose Devers is an intriguing guy the Marlins seemingly were hell-bent on dealing so I was happy to take him off their hands. He was good for 5.1 WAR in AAA off a 289/372/453 season with 16 HR and outstanding defense at 2B and he's hitting 291/390/412 this year so pretty much the same. The power's a bit of mirage as he's only rated 35 but he's 60 contact, 60 gap, 60 eye (with 70 potential) and 65 avoid Ks to go with 60 D at 2B (and 50 at SS). We had acquired Luisangel Acuna earlier this year and of course also traded for Masyn Winn, so where Devers fits into our plans for next year remains to be seen but he was too good to pass up. He's at Durham with Acuna at the moment.

July 28: Speaking of too good to pass up, the Mets offered me this deal:



A starting pitcher who's the #41 prospect in baseball for my OF who's lost his job, wasn't in my OF plans for next year and was due a bump to $3.8M in arbitration? Don't mind if I do.



Like the quote from Bendix here. Here's the skinny on Diaz:



Not sure he's going to be a Cy Young candidate but should at least be a decent 3/4 starter with the potential to be a #2. It's a little sad to say goodbye to Lowe (the last of the Lowes after trading Nate in 2021 and Brandon last month) but as mentioned he was surplus to requirements. We called up Alec Burleson (who didn't belong at Durham) to take his place on the roster as a backup OF.

So there you have it - five deals, most of which were with 2026 and beyond in mind with the one deal for Auer improving our club for this season. I've amassed quite a collection of good young talent in these deals and others made earlier this season (E.De La Cruz, Winn, L.Acuna) so the problem will be finding room for them all going forward as our existing prospects like Junior Caminero and Brock Jones are banging on the door as well.

And speaking of talent acquisition, we had the draft mid-month:



This year's draft class overall was kind of weak but we did grab some interesting guys.

Caminiti: He's not the son of the late Astros star Ken, but the high-schooler is a cousin. Intriguingly he's a two-way guy, a potential 55/60/50 starter and a 1B/OF with 65 contact, 55 power, and 50 eye potential as well as above-average corner OF defense. He'll do both and see how it goes; I'd rather he develop as a pitcher but it's nice to know he has the bat to fall back on.

Quelch: My favorite name, which sounds like someone's malapropism confusing "squelch" and "quash" (or "quench"). Anyway Quelch is an (old) college guy of 24, and has 65 current (not potential) power. That goes with 45 contact and a 40 eye so he still needs to hone his game in minors but he's starting at High-A Bowling Green where he already has 5 homers in 56 AB. If he gets that contact up to the potential 55 (and the eye to 45) he could be something really useful, especially with 65 speed and above-average corner OF defense (he's listed as a CF but only a 45 there).

Sabathia: Speaking of bloodlines we drafted C.C.'s kid, a hulking (6'4", 230) presence like his dad but a college first baseman from Georgia Tech. For a college product he's a bit raw but has 70 power potential with 50 contact and 55 eye ceilings but he's a bit far from those right now so he'll start in complex ball.

Pappano: A high-school starter with 55/45/45 potential, so nothing to get too amped up about but like Caminiti he has two-way ability with 60 contact/55 power potential and 65/55 potential in LF/RF.

Bishop: Another high school starter, he has 55/50/50 potential. No hitting ability though so he'll sink or swim based on his arm.

Meanwhile off the topic a bit here's an All-Star recap:

The American League All-Stars feature these players:

SP Matthew Boyd (HOU) - 10-2, 3.04 ERA, 112.2 IP, 1.18 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 1.9 WAR
SP Luis Garcia (HOU) - 8-3, 3.25 ERA, 110.2 IP, 1.14 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 2.0 WAR
SP Logan Gilbert (SEA) - 6-5, 2.25 ERA, 108.0 IP, 1.14 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 2.9 WAR
SP Carlos Hernandez (KC) - 4-1, 2.07 ERA, 95.2 IP, 1.10 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, 1.2 WAR
SP Cristian Javier (HOU)* - 6-4, 3.42 ERA, 115.2 IP, 1.23 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 2.1 WAR
SP Drew Rasmussen (TB) - 6-4, 2.33 ERA, 96.2 IP, 1.18 WHIP, 6.4 K/9, 1.7 WAR
SP Ethan Small (LAA) - 5-1, 2.08 ERA, 56.1 IP, 1.15 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 0.5 WAR
RP Shane Baz (TB) - 5-0, 1.79 ERA, 60.1 IP, 0.86 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 1.2 WAR
RP Deivi Garcia (MIN) - 4-1, 0.87 ERA, 51.2 IP, 0.72 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 1.0 WAR
RP Mason Miller (OAK) - 6-3, 14 SV, 2.45 ERA, 69.2 IP, 1.21 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 0.4 WAR
RP Nick Sandlin (KC) - 4-2, 9 SV, 0.94 ERA, 48.0 IP, 0.94 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 1.4 WAR
CL David Bednar (TEX)* - 1-0, 30 SV, 0.51 ERA, 35.0 IP, 0.57 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 1.7 WAR
CL Jhoan Duran (MIN) - 5-1, 24 SV, 1.47 ERA, 36.2 IP, 0.90 WHIP, 14.5 K/9, 1.3 WAR
C Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - .281/.353/.465, 260 AB, 13 HR, 126 wRC+, 1.7 WAR
C Shea Langeliers (OAK) - .273/.348/.469, 256 AB, 10 HR, 127 wRC+, 2.3 WAR
C Adley Rutschman (BAL)* - .272/.347/.430, 279 AB, 9 HR, 116 wRC+, 2.6 WAR
C Tyler Soderstrom (NYY) - .322/.375/.524, 267 AB, 12 HR, 149 wRC+, 2.0 WAR
1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR)* - .309/.367/.574, 359 AB, 26 HR, 3 SB, 158 wRC+, 3.0 WAR
1B Jose Ramirez (CLE)* - .298/.352/.445, 346 AB, 13 HR, 7 SB, 120 wRC+, 1.2 WAR
2B Andres Gimenez (MIN)* - .312/.369/.474, 359 AB, 10 HR, 10 SB, 132 wRC+, 3.5 WAR
2B Trevor Story (BOS) - .260/.330/.483, 327 AB, 15 HR, 2 SB, 122 wRC+, 2.4 WAR
3B Alex Bregman (HOU)* - .294/.372/.460, 211 AB, 7 HR, 2 SB, 134 wRC+, 2.0 WAR (Injured)
SS Carlos Correa (MIN)* - .293/.366/.429, 331 AB, 8 HR, 5 SB, 120 wRC+, 3.6 WAR
SS Wander Franco (TB) - .328/.375/.536, 250 AB, 9 HR, 9 SB, 151 wRC+, 2.3 WAR
SS Gunnar Henderson (BAL) - .278/.360/.476, 334 AB, 16 HR, 7 SB, 131 wRC+, 2.7 WAR
SS Anthony Volpe (CWS) - .289/.358/.496, 343 AB, 15 HR, 9 SB, 137 wRC+, 3.6 WAR
LF Juan Soto (KC) - .257/.453/.480, 269 AB, 16 HR, 4 SB, 160 wRC+, 2.9 WAR
CF Byron Buxton (MIN) - .297/.360/.651, 175 AB, 18 HR, 173 wRC+, 2.2 WAR
CF Riley Greene (DET)* - .353/.405/.584, 351 AB, 16 HR, 3 SB, 172 wRC+, 4.6 WAR
CF Pedro Leon (HOU) - .282/.361/.464, 347 AB, 14 HR, 24 SB, 131 wRC+, 3.1 WAR
CF Julio Rodriguez (SEA)* - .329/.393/.525, 240 AB, 10 HR, 20 SB, 158 wRC+, 3.6 WAR
CF Esteury Ruiz (OAK) - .300/.356/.452, 343 AB, 11 HR, 31 SB, 127 wRC+, 3.2 WAR
CF Mike Trout (LAA) - .236/.307/.513, 343 AB, 27 HR, 1 SB, 122 wRC+, 2.6 WAR
RF Aaron Judge (NYY)* - .290/.403/.609, 307 AB, 29 HR, 178 wRC+, 5.0 WAR
RF Jose Ramos (LAA) - .285/.349/.538, 253 AB, 16 HR, 1 SB, 143 wRC+, 2.6 WAR


On the National League All-Star roster will be:

SP Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 8-6, 2.79 ERA, 135.2 IP, 1.11 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, 3.6 WAR
SP Bubba Chandler (PIT) - 9-5, 3.56 ERA, 111.1 IP, 1.24 WHIP, 12.4 K/9, 2.9 WAR
SP Connor Phillips (CIN) - 10-5, 3.04 ERA, 112.1 IP, 0.99 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 2.7 WAR
SP Oliver Roque (CHC) - 6-4, 2.41 ERA, 89.2 IP, 0.89 WHIP, 12.2 K/9, 2.7 WAR
SP Spencer Strider (ATL)* - 7-6, 3.73 ERA, 111.0 IP, 1.11 WHIP, 11.2 K/9, 2.1 WAR
SP Julio Urias (MIA) - 6-9, 2.85 ERA, 129.2 IP, 1.06 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 3.2 WAR
SP Kyle Wright (ATL) - 9-7, 5.28 ERA, 105.2 IP, 1.25 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 1.7 WAR
RP Aaron Ashby (MIL) - 0-2, 1.89 ERA, 52.1 IP, 1.13 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, 1.2 WAR
RP Kyle Finnegan (MIA) - 0-1, 2.18 ERA, 45.1 IP, 1.21 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 0.9 WAR
RP Evan Phillips (LAD)* - 4-3, 3.16 ERA, 31.1 IP, 0.83 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 0.4 WAR
RP Carson Whisenhunt (SF) - 2-1, 3.46 ERA, 54.2 IP, 1.28 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 0.5 WAR
CL Andrew Baker (PHI) - 2-4, 20 SV, 3.74 ERA, 33.2 IP, 1.22 WHIP, 15.0 K/9, 0.8 WAR
CL Josh Hader (SD) - 1-4, 26 SV, 1.18 ERA, 38.0 IP, 0.95 WHIP, 11.6 K/9, 0.7 WAR
C Sean Murphy (ATL)* - .268/.341/.507, 205 AB, 10 HR, 132 wRC+, 2.2 WAR
C Endy Rodriguez (PIT) - .239/.297/.440, 243 AB, 8 HR, 100 wRC+, 1.3 WAR
C Drew Romo (COL) - .265/.321/.385, 283 AB, 5 HR, 7 SB, 87 wRC+, 2.1 WAR
1B Pete Alonso (NYM)* - .237/.297/.471, 346 AB, 23 HR, 111 wRC+, 0.8 WAR
1B Freddie Freeman (LAD) - .316/.391/.493, 339 AB, 15 HR, 2 SB, 143 wRC+, 2.5 WAR
1B Luis Garcia (WSH) - .333/.376/.574, 204 AB, 11 HR, 153 wRC+, 2.3 WAR
1B Paul Goldschmidt (CHC)* - .301/.371/.583, 336 AB, 25 HR, 162 wRC+, 3.4 WAR
2B Jeff McNeil (NYM)* - .303/.355/.463, 294 AB, 10 HR, 131 wRC+, 1.7 WAR
3B Nolan Arenado (STL) - .264/.314/.482, 330 AB, 16 HR, 2 SB, 117 wRC+, 2.3 WAR
3B Nolan Jones (MIA) - .265/.326/.477, 321 AB, 18 HR, 6 SB, 124 wRC+, 2.5 WAR
3B Ronny Mauricio (NYM) - .304/.352/.540, 339 AB, 18 HR, 9 SB, 148 wRC+, 3.3 WAR
3B Austin Riley (ATL)* - .315/.380/.592, 343 AB, 26 HR, 1 SB, 167 wRC+, 3.7 WAR
3B Eugenio Suárez (COL) - .275/.326/.522, 295 AB, 20 HR, 1 SB, 122 wRC+, 2.4 WAR
SS Tim Anderson (AZ) - .303/.331/.490, 294 AB, 8 HR, 12 SB, 122 wRC+, 2.5 WAR
SS Vaughn Grissom (ATL)* - .322/.380/.472, 233 AB, 4 HR, 8 SB, 137 wRC+, 3.0 WAR (Injured)
LF Kris Bryant (COL)* - .280/.368/.561, 246 AB, 16 HR, 146 wRC+, 2.3 WAR
LF Tyler Gentry (CHC) - .279/.346/.515, 330 AB, 21 HR, 2 SB, 135 wRC+, 2.5 WAR
LF James Wood (WSH) - .258/.339/.509, 291 AB, 19 HR, 3 SB, 127 wRC+, 2.3 WAR
CF Michael Harris II (ATL)* - .352/.409/.528, 335 AB, 11 HR, 35 SB, 162 wRC+, 4.9 WAR
CF Alek Thomas (AZ) - .343/.415/.464, 274 AB, 4 HR, 1 SB, 147 wRC+, 2.3 WAR
RF Mookie Betts (LAD) - .271/.386/.498, 255 AB, 16 HR, 7 SB, 145 wRC+, 2.7 WAR
RF Zac Veen (COL)* - .290/.386/.530, 328 AB, 15 HR, 15 SB, 143 wRC+, 3.3 WAR

Wander was no surprise and Rasmussen was among the ERA leaders but Baz was a bit of a shock although he is having a great year in long relief.

We had a pretty epic Home Run Derby with Mike Trout edging out Aaron Judge 25-24 in the final round.

As for the game:



Sadly, Baz gave up the game-winning homer to young Washington star James Wood while Wander was 1-3 and Rasmussen pitched a scoreless inning.

[Art Deco]

Record: 56-46 (14-10 for the month)
2nd place AL East, 2 behind New York; in 2nd AL Wild Card slot

It was a decent month for the Rays who moved into a playoff spot but fell a little further behind in the division, primarily thanks to dropping 3 of 4 in a series with the Yanks at the Trop. The hitting vastly improved this month but the pitching dropped off, resulting in several high-scoring games. The team defense has remained poor, so a couple of moves were made to improve it. We outlined the Austin Wells for Mason Auer deal in the previous post and the other big change came on the infield where we moved Wander Franco off of SS to 2B. Wander had a dreadful -8.3 ZR in 62 games at short but has a positive 0.7 in 12 games at 2B. He swaps places with Masyn Winn. As the move was made at the break, Winn has now played 13 games at the position with a -0.4 ZR. While not great it's better than Franco's numbers.

The other move was putting Jack Perkins in the rotation and dropping Jeffrey Springs, who was terrible in May. Unfortunately Perkins was terrible as well in his first two starts, so the jury's out on that one. Matt Canterino was called up to replace Zach Eflin in long relief. Here's where things stand around MLB as we head into August:



Outside of Minnesota (and somewhat Houston) nobody is really dominating in MLB right now so that leaves things open for the Rays after their slow start.



As mentioned the offense really picked up in July and we're now first in XBH as we seem to be hitting a ton of doubles. The pitching took a step back but it was mostly the starters as the bullpen has remained very good even with Pete Fairbanks (who started a rehab assignment as the month ended) out. With the changes we've made I really hope to see those defensive numbers improve a month from now.



What an incredible July for Christian Bethancourt. I can't believe he wasn't named AL Player of the Month but he's clearly taken the full-time C job and run (or hit) with it. He did win a Player of the Week Award durin the month. Randy Arozarena looks like he's back, and Josh Lowe had a nice send-off in limited action.



Outside of Ryan Pepiot it was a very rough month for the starters, but a lot of it had to with >.400 BABIPs. The relievers fared much better as it seemed most games we were down 3-0 or 4-0 early but came back to win a bunch of them thanks the offense and the pen holding the opposition at bay.



The updated prospect list after the trades and the draft although BNN was pretty unimpressed with our draft haul, only ranking Caminiti among the top 500. The last guy on the list above had quite the July:

[Art Deco]

Record: 76-54 (20-8 for the month)
1st place AL East, 6 up on the Yankees

What. A. Month. After playing .500 ball the first two months of the season it looked like the Rays would be lucky to get a wild card as the offense was struggling despite great pitching. Fast forward three months, and they're raking like your local grounds crew, the pitching is still pretty good, and they're in a commanding position to win the AL East. They put 158 runs on the board this month or 5.64/game, and that includes a rough stretch to begin the month when they lost consecutive series to the Yankees and Jays and only scored 20 runs in the 6 games. But after that New York went into a nosedive while the Rays got hot, losing 12 of 13 games at one point (although they did win their final 6). We also went into Toronto on the final weekend of the month and got revenge by sweeping them.

It wasn't all sunshine and rainbows though for Tampa Bay as they suffered the worst loss they could on the pitching staff with ace Shane McClanahan going down in his final start of the month with a sprained AC joint, putting him out for the season. He had bit of a down year at 9-8, 3.92 but still had 147 whiffs in 149 IP and was good for 2.6 WAR. Also closer Pete Fairbanks went down again, this time for the season with shoulder inflammation. And Matt Canterino, called up in late July, herniated a disc and will be out until mid-September.

To deal with all those pitching injuries we picked up a couple of veteran relievers unwanted by the Dodgers. LA waived Seranthony Dominguez, who is still solid with 65 stuff, 70 movement and 50 control, we claimed him, and he paid immediate dividends getting the final two outs in a game when Jason Adam had to leave with a minor injury and picking up a save in his debut. Additionally they DFA'd one-time (and I mean one time as he only made one appearance in 2021 for us) Ray Evan Phillips despite saving 74 games for them the last two seasons. He had lost the closer's job but still had 6 wins and a 3.05 ERA. He cleared waivers and we inked him to a minor league deal, adding him to the 40-man just before 9/1 so he'd be playoff-eligible.

Finally Masyn Winn, who took over at SS last month with Wander Franco moving to 2B, strained an ab muscle mid-month and will be sidelined to mid-September and suddenly that deal for Jose Devers didn't look so superfluous as he came up to take Winn's place and merely hit 349/431/460 in his stead.



What you don't see here is the insane race for the AL wild cards, where the Angels are 1/2 back of the White Sox and the A's and Royals are only 1 game back. Over in the NL Colorado is 3 back of the pack. The Rays meanwhile are closer to Minnesota for the #2 seed and wild card round bye (4 games) than the Yankees are to them (6). And they open September with a 3-game series in Minneapolis before the Twins visit the Trop a week later for 3.



Our record is no fluke as it matches Pythagoreas. Just look at how far those offensive numbers have come since early in the season, and the pitching - while not as stellar as early season - is still among the game's best. Two things we remain bad at: base running, despite all the steals, and defense, despite the changes made last month to try and improve it.



Check out the crazy numbers we got from the bench with Jung, Bailey and Doughty! Wander and Vargas were lethal middle-of-the-order forces and as mentioned Devers really picked it up in place of Winn, who wasn't hitting when healthy early in the month. Bethancourt cooled off unsurprisingly and Auer was a bit of disappointment this month.



Rasmussen and Pepiot struggled some but overall the pitching was pretty good, especially the bullpen and especially the long men in Springs and Baz. Baz for the year is 10-0, 1.80 in 85 innings with only 57 hits allowed and 99 whiffs, good for 1.7 WAR. He's even doing a great job of keeping the ball in the park (only 6 HR). Therefore he's my choice to take McClanahan's spot in the rotation and we'll see how that goes. Isaiah Campbell, acquired in 2023 for Harold Ramirez, finally made it to The Show and has been impressive.



Brock Jones has crept up the prospect rankings from 237 overall a month ago to 200 today on the strength of an MVP season for Durham: 40 HR, 115 RBI, 335/416/672, 15 SB, and a 4.1 ZR in LF. Thought about rewarding him with a September callup but the 40-man is full and he's not on it, so instead the nod goes to the guy at #5 for us, Carson Williams, who is on the 40-man and gives us a good defensive MI to back up Devers and Wander. Reliever Trevor Bridgen, not a prospect but a useful arm, was the other September call-up.

So on to September and a likely division title!

[Art Deco]

Final Regular Season Record: 96-66 (20-12 for the month+)
1st place AL East, #2 seed

It was regular season mission accomplished for the Rays, who not only took the AL East but surpassed the Central-winning Twins for the #2 seed in the league and avoided having to play in the wild card round. Winning four of six in a pair of series with Minnesota certainly helped in this regard. We did suffer one more significant injury during the month - Jose Devers, who hit 331/396/462 after taking over at SS when Masyn Winn went down, ruptured a tendon in a finger and is finished for the year. Devers would have been our playoff SS over Winn but won't be now.

I'll post the team stats and final full-season numbers in a post to follow this one, for now here's what everybody did for the month:

September hitting:



On the strength of his September (and the weakness of Manzardo's), Jace Jung took the DH job from Kyle Manzardo. Elly De La Cruz had a brutal month but what the above doesn't show you is October, which I'll show you here:



Elly had a pair of 4-hit games including a 2-run homer on the final day which put him over the 100-RBI mark including his early-season time with Cincinnati. Christian Bethancourt was injured for much of the month meaning veteran Yasmani Grandal got to play some in September but he came back before the month ended.

September pitching:



Had to export this report because Seranthony Dominguez's long name adds an ugly extra blank line in the in-game report. Ryan Pepiot had a huge month and is in the thick of the Cy Young race as a result while everyone else pitched pretty well with the exception of Shane Baz, who has struggled as a starter after being brilliant in long relief. He'll return to that role for the playoffs and hopefully he'll return to how he was pitching in it.

Next up will be the final year-end stats post.

[Art Deco]

How the league looked:



Wander was leading in batting average for much of the month before he slipped a little and Greene overtook him. What you don't see in the NL at the bottom since LA and Colorado tied for the NL West lead is that St. Louis made it as the third wild card while LA won its division. The Rays were good for the 3rd best record in MLB behind Houston and the Cubs. Here's the playoff tree:





The offense was the story of our second half surge as the pitching was excellent all season. Even the lousy defense improved as the year went on and although our DE wasn't great we ended up with a positive zone rating. The only nit I can pick is walks - we don't draw many of them and we allow too many of them.



Wander and Elly were the only ones who put up star-level performances this year but we had a lot of solid players and lot of combo production out of the catching spot and DH. Mason Auer ending with a WAR of 0.0 in the second half for us was a bit of a surprise as he didn't quite play D as well as he did in Chicago. And of course the traded Lowes are at the bottom. Josh didn't do much with the Mets but Brandon turned into a beast with the Yankees: 321/398/603 with 25 HR and 85 RBI in 96 games with some help from that short RF porch. Hopefully he doesn't come back to haunt us in the playoffs but that wouldn't be until the LCS and the Yanks would have to get past Houston first.



Just great numbers all around. Notice Taj Bradley came back at the end of the year and started the final game of the season. He was rocked but at least it was good to see him back and he pitched quite well in his rehab at Durham. He's not going to be on the playoff roster though. Pepiot as mentioned is a Cy Young candidate, even if he did miss out by 5 innings on the ERA title as his lack of stamina keeps him from being more than a 5-6 inning guy. Isaiah Campbell came up in August and pitched very well but suffered a torn rotator cuff late in September. He's supposed to be out 4 months.

Before I post the prospect pipeline list, just wanted to show what an insane season Brock Jones had at Durham:




Jones will be in the running for a job with us next year, but it'll likely be as a 4th OF. He has 55/60 power and a 55/60 eye but he's only rated 45 for contact and gap power so I doubt he could come close to replicating those numbers at the MLB level. Caminero's kind of blocked too with Elly at 3B and Vargas/Jung/Manzardo at 1B/DH. He can also play some 2B but we have a guy named Wander there.



One guy to take note of on here for 2026 (aside from Chourio, who should take over for Randy in LF) is Fernando Costume (whose name I assume is pronounced Cos-TOO-may and not like the word costume), whose ratings rose throughout the season and ended up at Durham. As a reliever he's rated 60/50/55 with 70/55/65 potential and as a starter the stuff is 55 with 65 potential. He was good for 4.2 WAR at two stops this year. He's probably ahead of the higher-ranked Diaz, who had some struggles at Durham.

Next post: A recap of the Wild Card round, which will reveal the identity of the Rays' ALDS opponent.

[Art Deco]

The Yankees advance to face the Astros, and there goes Brandon Lowe again.



And the Rays will face the Twins in the ALDS starting at the Trop.



Atlanta made quick work of the Rockies and will face the Cubs in one NLDS.



In the most exciting of the four series and only one to go the distance, the Dodgers got a pair of walk-off wins to advance and face the Mets in the other NLDS. In Game 1 it was a Trace Thompson walk-off homer that won it and in the Game 3 they led 6-3 going into the 9th when the Cardinals scored 4 times in top of the inning to go ahead 7-6 only for the Dodgers to score twice in the bottom of the frame and win it on Odubel Herrera's double.

[Art Deco]

A lousy start...



After taking a quick 1-0 lead in the first inning things went south for the Rays and a couple of late runs made the score closer than it really was. Drew Rasmussen will get the ball tomorrow in what's kind of a must-win game for Tampa Bay.

Yesterday in the NLDS:



And today in all the DS action:



Not often you see a team score 7 in the bottom of the 9th to erase a 6-run deficit in the playoffs, but the Cubs are on the verge of the NLCS as a result.

[Art Deco]

Deja vu all over again...



It was two years ago against these same Twins in the ALCS that Pete Fairbanks gave up a 9th-inning homer to blow a Rays lead in Game 7 and history repeated as Jason Adam coughed up a homer in the 9th to lose a 3-2 Rays lead and Minnesota went on to beat Tampa Bay in 5-3 in 11 innings to take a commanding 2-0 ALDS lead. It also would have helped if the offense could score more than 3 runs a game, but all they needed today was to get through the 9th. Matt Brash will get the ball in Minnesota to try to keep the season alive.

At least the Astros tied up their series:

[Art Deco]

We interrupt MLB playoff coverage for some good news from the farm:



Congrats to the Biscuits, Southern League champs! Hitting a big 3-run homer, his 6th of the playoffs after hitting 11 in 57 games at two stops, was our 2nd-round draft pick this year Joe Quelch.

Meanwhile our AAA affiliate Durham is in the International League championship round also, although things aren't going quite as well as they trail Louisville 0-2.

[Art Deco]

Well that was disappointing...



And the Rays exit the 2025 playoffs with a whimper, as they only scored six runs in the three ALDS games including being shut out in Game 3. They did have one great chance in the 8th, loading the bases, but Wander struck out to end the threat. This marks the second straight year the Rays have been swept out of the ALDS after Texas did the honors last season.

Yesterday's NLDS action:



And today's DS action:



An excellent outing from former Ray Tyler Glasnow wasn't enough to keep the Dodgers from being eliminated by the Mets, who joined the Twins as confirmed LCS participants. Chicago and Atlanta will go to a deciding Game 5.

[Art Deco]

So it's the Cubs vs Mets in the NLCS and Twins vs Yankees in the ALCS.

Meanwhile Durham lost the IL Championship series to Louisville in 6 games, falling behind 3-0 before winning the next two and losing Game 6.

[Art Deco]

What a remarkable run by the Twins, who are now 9-0 in this postseason after sweeping the Wild Card Round, the ALDS and now the ALCS. Can they go 13-0?




So it's the Cubs and Twins in the Fall Classic. Minnesota is looking for its second title in three seasons and both times they have vanquished the Rays along the way.

[Art Deco]

The Twins didn't get the playoff sweep (although they did extend their streak to 10 wins before dropping Game 2) but I doubt they care as they became World Champions for the second time in three seasons.

Meanwhile a couple of Rays farmhands were honored by their respective leagues:



This was the biggest no-brainer of them all as Jones had a season for the ages in the IL.



Peguero overmatched SL hitters with his 70 MLB stuff. He also notched 11 saves at Durham but struggled some with a 5.06 ERA. Peguero has a real shot at a bullpen slot with the big club in 2026.

[Art Deco]

It's going to be an interesting offseason as we have a lot of talent but very few free agents meaning we're going to have a 40-man roster crunch and a lot of decisions to make up and down the lineup and on the pitching staff.

Fortunately money's not going to be a big factor as Stu Sternberg has generously allotted $160M for payroll. Don't really want to go near this but we'll see how things go. This is how our obligations stand given the current makeup of the roster:



This group plus the minimum salary guys adds up to a projected $129M but I don't plan on keeping everyone here. Randy Arozarena and his $11.3M are gone, however unpopular that might be with the fans as while he had a decent second half last year he didn't crack .400 SLG and we have potential replacements in either Jackson Chourio (whom we would have to add to the 40-man although we don't need to yet) or Brock Jones (who does have to be added or could be taken in Rule 5). Also we got by fine without Pete Fairbanks for most of last season and can save $7M without him, especially since we're spending nearly $15M on the bullpen back end of S.Rodriguez/Doval/Adam. And we can save about $2M on Ryan Thompson, who was outrighted off the 40-man last season. So there's $20M in savings before we do anything else, although we might use some of that in what we get in return for Arozarena and Fairbanks.

A position-by-position outlook:

C: Last year we went into the offseason with Patrick Bailey set as the catcher and in need of a backup. We then re-signed Christian Bethancourt and he wound up playing so well after a poor start by Bailey that he took over the job. Then Bethancourt got hurt late in the season and Bailey ended up raking in his place. This time around Bethancourt wants a 2/21 extension so we're not going to get him for $1.8M again. With no other catcher on the 40-man, we're going to have to find a backup with defense whiz Blake Hunt the leading in-house candidate right now.

1B: Miguel Vargas is the man although he dropped off to 18 homers after 25 and 23 the seasons before. You'd like a few more homers out of your 1B but that's OK when Vargas hits his usual .300 with 30 doubles.

2B: This is Wander Franco's position now as he was moved there mid-season and provided decent defense after giving runs away (-8.8 ZR in half a season) at SS.

SS: We have quite a few candidates for the position. Jose Devers kind of won the job late last year hitting well over .300 before getting hurt, we have the guy whose job he took in Masyn Winn (and whom we traded Brandon Lowe for), and then we still have Luisangel Acuna, who's likely more of a utility guy. And then we have prospect Carson Williams, who actually was with the big club in September and the playoffs with Devers and Acuna hurt. Williams will likely be ticketed for Durham since he came right up from AA and still needs to work on his hit tool. There's another Williams at Durham in Alika, but although he has a good glove he isn't that great a hitter. He's a Rule 5-eligible guy we'll try and deal.

3B: Elly De La Cruz is the man here and while he had a very good year overall he did tail off badly in August/September before getting hot again in the final week (and homering in the playoffs).

IF: Winn and Devers can play all over the infield so the loser of that battle (probably Winn) becomes our utility infielder.

LF: The big question mark with Arozarena departing. Chourio is MLB-ready but makes our 40-man crunch worse while Jones is coming off a 50 (53 with the playoffs) homer season at Durham.

CF: Jose Siri has had the job the last three years and has provided Gold Glove-caliber defense, but he's turned 30 and last season his ZR was 7.5, the first time in that span he's been below double digits. He's not a great hitter either but makes up for it with 15-HR pop and 30-SB speed. I don't mind paying him $5.5M next year but he does seem to be a declining asset so if a more interesting alternative pops up I could make a change. Kameron Misner is next on the depth chart at CF but he's using a 40-man roster spot I'm probably going to need for someone else so he's a likely DFA candidate.

RF: Mason Auer is the starter here but he disappointed a bit, both in the field (2.7 ZR with Chicago, 0.9 with us) and at the plate (about 30 points less BA, 50 points lower OBP than with the Cubs). He's still young, on the way up, and can also play a credible CF, so he's not going anywhere.

OF: Alec Burleson is our 4th OF right now but he doesn't have any kind of real hold on the position. Cade Doughty, who hit 305/365/504 primarily against lefties and can also play 2B and 3B as well as the corner OF positions, has a roster spot and will return.

DH: I'm not sure I did Jace Jung and Kyle Manzardo any favors by constantly flipping them in and out of the lineup based on who had the hot hand, as the two ended up combining for 34 HR and 107 RBI (that's in about 750 AB as they often played together and Jung played a lot against lefties, moreso in the first half) although they combined to hit about .245. With Doughty no longer platooning in RF as he did early last season with the since-traded Josh Lowe, I need to get him some DH ABs so keeping Jung and Manzardo seems like a waste and one of them could be dealt.

SP: Drew Rasmussen was great and it's going to be reflected in his pricey arbitration number as he enters his free agent year, and if Shane McClanahan is healthy after his AC joint procedure we have a good top two, and that's not even counting Cy Young candidate Ryan Pepiot. Pepiot and fellow hard throwers Matt Brash and Jack Perkins are five-and-dive guys with low stamina who are productive when they pitch but can't go deep. Nevertheless that gives up 5 starters and then we still have to pay Jeffrey Springs $10M, who's capable of starting but was so much better in long relief, especially paired with the short-stamina guys. Other starting candidates include Shane Baz (also better suited to long relief after struggling in the rotation) and Matt Canterino (ditto). Then we have prospects Joel Diaz and Fernando Costume, both of whom are capable of pitching in MLB but are ticketed for Durham since neither has to go on the 40-man. So the league's top staff returns intact with plenty of depth. EDIT: Just a second, I totally forgot about Taj Bradley, who should be in the rotation now that's he come back from TJS and made some appearances late last season. He needs to factor in somewhere, maybe with Perkins going back to the bullpen. Another surplus that's a good problem to have.

Bullpen: As mentioned the back end will be fine with Seranthony/Doval/Adam returning, Baz and Springs should fill the long roles (EDIT: and maybe Perkins), and the likes of Jovani Moran, Garrett Cleavinger, Hayden Juenger and Colby White in middle relief all are back and are all very good.

The 40-man roster: Here's where things get hairy. We're only going to have a few openings due to free agency, but Bethancourt has to replaced with another backup C so that's not going to help, and we need to bring McClanahan and Devers off the 60-day IL. And we're going to have find room for the following: Junior Caminero, Brock Jones, Blake Hunt, Alex Ayala Jr., Anthony Molina, Graham Stinson, Israel Mateo, Willy Vazquez, and Franklin Dacosta, none of whom I really want to lose. So as much as I want to bring up Chourio to play LF, he doesn't have to be added to the 40-man so it would be at the expense of someone else. Cooper Criswell and Kameron Misner will probably be waived off the 40-man to make some room as will vet Evan Phillips (who was added as a possible playoff piece but never used) but we're still going to have to make deals.

So here are the objectives for the offseason:

1. Find a backup or job-share catcher to go with Bailey.
2. Make room on the 40-man or trade some of the Rule 5-eligibles.
3. Look into some extensions, especially McClanahan although in his case that will have to wait until spring when we see whether his ratings get downgraded after his AC joint procedure.
4. Perhaps get a big-bopping OF who's more of an offensive force than Auer or Siri without sacrificing too much on defense. The lineup does feel a little light and with some money to spend and prospects to deal we can maybe find someone so we don't end up scoring 6 runs in a playoff series like we did this year.