Players begin regressing at young age

toque · 02-20-2019, 04:32 PM

I'm in a modern game, currently in 2034, with Challenge Mode on.

I've been noticing a trend with some of my players over the past few seasons. While there are still a few current day players the overwhelming majority of NHL players are computer generated, and I've only this issue with these players.

Every year, at the start of the year with training camp, some of my younger players, most of whom haven't reached their full potential, begin to lose ratings every development report.

Here's a screenshot as an example, but as I said, it's not the first time this has happened.

Name: Screen Shot 2019-02-20 at 1.03.23 PM.png
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Name: Screen Shot 2019-02-20 at 1.03.23 PM.png
Views: 636
Size: 419.2 KB

You can see the player M. Kocian has begun losing ratings at the age of 23. And Sissons is only 27 and plays on the 1st defensive line.

I have Staff assigned for each assistant coaching role, and it's happened when I've had training set either manually or with the assistant (normally I have the assistant handle training).

Is there some gameplay element I'm missing? Or is it potentially a bug?

JeffR · 02-21-2019, 02:38 AM

If you can upload the save, we can check internally to see if anything looks wrong with their data. But most likely it's just the unique development patterns of those players; they may be predisposed to an early decline.

redtiger7 · 02-21-2019, 11:02 AM

It seems to happen quite a lot with generated players.

MikeMontrealer · 02-21-2019, 04:21 PM

I've noticed it as well that it appears to happen more frequently in the 2030s than it did earlier (I'm in 2036 now).

Is it possible the weightings are more even for generated players (so it's more of a bell curve for the development peak age) compared to the ones already in the DB?

toque · 02-21-2019, 09:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JeffR

If you can upload the save, we can check internally to see if anything looks wrong with their data. But most likely it's just the unique development patterns of those players; they may be predisposed to an early decline.

Uploaded, save name is WinnipegJets2034.

List of affected players (some no longer on my roster, due to constant regression I traded them).

Adam Sissons
Martian Kocian
Adam Pehrsson
Alf Karlsson
Brad Crodwer
Lukas Grossmann

Thanks for your help Jeff!

JeffR · 02-22-2019, 01:34 AM

Looks like it's all working as it should. Player generation might need a tiny adjustment to improve the starting Aging ratings slightly, but I'll need to look at a larger sample first. Spoilers about the players below:

Sissons: had a naturally short-ish career arc to begin with, and then had multiple major injuries in his second junior season that didn't help that and probably left him somewhat injury-prone. Despite that, he's had pretty good luck with injuries so far in his NHL career, which has probably stretched out its length a bit, but he's 27 now and the clock is starting to run down from him.

Kocian: Like Sissons, he does have a natural career arc that's on the short side. Since he's only 23, with careful training management he can probably maintain his current level for a while by giving him help to improve his mental ratings, which should increase faster than his other skills slip. But he's still probably out of the league by his late 20's.

Pehrsson: Even shorter career arc than the first two, and it looks like he's reached his potential, so he's probably headed downwards at 25.

Karlsson: Similar to Sissons, just more durable. His skills look like they're remaining pretty solid, but his skating was either questionable to begin with and/or is going downhill in a hurry, so that's going to knock him out of the league before he's 30.

Crowder: Bad luck on the career arc, he's got an Aging number that, when modeling a real historical player, I'd only assign to somebody who was finished in their mid-20's. He's actually holding it together better than I'd expect at 24, but that season he had at 21 was his peak. Just in time to get that big contract from you.

Grossman: Same as Crowder but a little farther along in his progression and was overrated a bit to begin with. His skill ratings are freefalling while the skating is still mostly intact. He's probably going back to Europe when his contract's done at the end of this year, he's close to being a fringe player now and won't want to take the kind of multi-million dollar pay cut that will be the only NHL offer he gets. Trading him to Chicago as early as you did was great timing, he probably hit the wall within 2 seasons of that.

Which isn't to say that your whole roster will go like those guys. Most of the core looks like, barring serious injury trouble, they should be stable into their late 20's/early 30's, and at least two or three will be good later than that. There are a couple who, with bad luck, might start slipping in their mid-20's, and one who's headed for a very big early flameout, but for the most part your guys will be OK.

toque · 02-22-2019, 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JeffR

Which isn't to say that your whole roster will go like those guys. Most of the core looks like, barring serious injury trouble, they should be stable into their late 20's/early 30's, and at least two or three will be good later than that. There are a couple who, with bad luck, might start slipping in their mid-20's, and one who's headed for a very big early flameout, but for the most part your guys will be OK.

Wow! Fascinating answer especially breaking down what happened in each player's case, thanks for much to looking into this for me!

A question based on this: is there anything in particular when scouting players that I should be on the look out for that can indicate a player might be on the road to a short career arc? Typically when drafting a player in the NHL, besides ability/potential, I look at the player's professionalism rating, and look at the image that displays the player's body and the propensity for injury in different areas (almost always avoiding players that have more than one vulnerable or fragile area). Am I missing something?

JeffR · 02-23-2019, 02:28 AM

It's deliberately hard to predict in prospects, but there are a few warning signs that, if they're all present, are probably grounds to be suspicious:

-substantial amounts of games missed in one or more seasons (may not hurt, but never helps)
-high injury proneness (in addition to the obvious chance for more injuries, this may also indicate that a previous injury was bad enough to increase this rating, and if it was, it may have also triggered a chance that his Aging number was lowered)
-unusually rapid development relative to other players of his age and potential (most short-arc players will hit their potential unusually early, but it's also possible that this could simply be because the player is particularly coachable and/or had good coaching)

None of those, individually, should be enough to scare you off, but together they paint enough of a bad picture that you should maybe have second thoughts about the guy.

02-20-2019, 04:32 PM	#1
toque Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jan 2019 Location: Canada Posts: 158	Players begin regressing at young age I'm in a modern game, currently in 2034, with Challenge Mode on. I've been noticing a trend with some of my players over the past few seasons. While there are still a few current day players the overwhelming majority of NHL players are computer generated, and I've only this issue with these players. Every year, at the start of the year with training camp, some of my younger players, most of whom haven't reached their full potential, begin to lose ratings every development report. Here's a screenshot as an example, but as I said, it's not the first time this has happened. You can see the player M. Kocian has begun losing ratings at the age of 23. And Sissons is only 27 and plays on the 1st defensive line. I have Staff assigned for each assistant coaching role, and it's happened when I've had training set either manually or with the assistant (normally I have the assistant handle training). Is there some gameplay element I'm missing? Or is it potentially a bug? Last edited by toque; 02-20-2019 at 04:33 PM.

02-21-2019, 02:38 AM	#2
JeffR FHM Producer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Kelowna, BC Posts: 16,623	If you can upload the save, we can check internally to see if anything looks wrong with their data. But most likely it's just the unique development patterns of those players; they may be predisposed to an early decline.

02-21-2019, 11:02 AM	#3
redtiger7 All Star Starter Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 1,013	It seems to happen quite a lot with generated players.

02-21-2019, 04:21 PM	#4
MikeMontrealer Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jan 2019 Posts: 40	I've noticed it as well that it appears to happen more frequently in the 2030s than it did earlier (I'm in 2036 now). Is it possible the weightings are more even for generated players (so it's more of a bell curve for the development peak age) compared to the ones already in the DB?

02-22-2019, 01:34 AM	#6
JeffR FHM Producer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Kelowna, BC Posts: 16,623	Looks like it's all working as it should. Player generation might need a tiny adjustment to improve the starting Aging ratings slightly, but I'll need to look at a larger sample first. Spoilers about the players below: Sissons: had a naturally short-ish career arc to begin with, and then had multiple major injuries in his second junior season that didn't help that and probably left him somewhat injury-prone. Despite that, he's had pretty good luck with injuries so far in his NHL career, which has probably stretched out its length a bit, but he's 27 now and the clock is starting to run down from him. Kocian: Like Sissons, he does have a natural career arc that's on the short side. Since he's only 23, with careful training management he can probably maintain his current level for a while by giving him help to improve his mental ratings, which should increase faster than his other skills slip. But he's still probably out of the league by his late 20's. Pehrsson: Even shorter career arc than the first two, and it looks like he's reached his potential, so he's probably headed downwards at 25. Karlsson: Similar to Sissons, just more durable. His skills look like they're remaining pretty solid, but his skating was either questionable to begin with and/or is going downhill in a hurry, so that's going to knock him out of the league before he's 30. Crowder: Bad luck on the career arc, he's got an Aging number that, when modeling a real historical player, I'd only assign to somebody who was finished in their mid-20's. He's actually holding it together better than I'd expect at 24, but that season he had at 21 was his peak. Just in time to get that big contract from you. Grossman: Same as Crowder but a little farther along in his progression and was overrated a bit to begin with. His skill ratings are freefalling while the skating is still mostly intact. He's probably going back to Europe when his contract's done at the end of this year, he's close to being a fringe player now and won't want to take the kind of multi-million dollar pay cut that will be the only NHL offer he gets. Trading him to Chicago as early as you did was great timing, he probably hit the wall within 2 seasons of that. Which isn't to say that your whole roster will go like those guys. Most of the core looks like, barring serious injury trouble, they should be stable into their late 20's/early 30's, and at least two or three will be good later than that. There are a couple who, with bad luck, might start slipping in their mid-20's, and one who's headed for a very big early flameout, but for the most part your guys will be OK.

02-23-2019, 02:28 AM	#8
JeffR FHM Producer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Kelowna, BC Posts: 16,623	It's deliberately hard to predict in prospects, but there are a few warning signs that, if they're all present, are probably grounds to be suspicious: -substantial amounts of games missed in one or more seasons (may not hurt, but never helps) -high injury proneness (in addition to the obvious chance for more injuries, this may also indicate that a previous injury was bad enough to increase this rating, and if it was, it may have also triggered a chance that his Aging number was lowered) -unusually rapid development relative to other players of his age and potential (most short-arc players will hit their potential unusually early, but it's also possible that this could simply be because the player is particularly coachable and/or had good coaching) None of those, individually, should be enough to scare you off, but together they paint enough of a bad picture that you should maybe have second thoughts about the guy.