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Old 12-03-2019, 09:06 PM   #1
rbonaccorso
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Question on historical accuracy

So the biggest reason I purchased this game is that I've always wanted to take a franchise from 1901 to the present.
I've been fortunate enough to have Cy Young in my rotation and it is currently the year 1902.
In the real 1902, Cy Young had an ERA of 2.15. However, four starts into my replay, his ERA is 6.20. I can understand some randomness, but this is ridiculous.
I want the players to be realistic to their historical performance.
Is there something I'm doing wrong?
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Old 12-03-2019, 09:11 PM   #2
David Watts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rbonaccorso View Post
So the biggest reason I purchased this game is that I've always wanted to take a franchise from 1901 to the present.
I've been fortunate enough to have Cy Young in my rotation and it is currently the year 1902.
In the real 1902, Cy Young had an ERA of 2.15. However, four starts into my replay, his ERA is 6.20. I can understand some randomness, but this is ridiculous.
I want the players to be realistic to their historical performance.
Is there something I'm doing wrong?
nevermind that was a dumb question I asked

Last edited by David Watts; 12-03-2019 at 09:14 PM.
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Old 12-03-2019, 10:04 PM   #3
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Probably just a small sample size.
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Old 12-04-2019, 12:16 AM   #4
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What are your settings? Here is Cy in my world
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Old 12-04-2019, 08:43 AM   #5
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What are the total team/league stats like? Is the league wide batting average around .270. Is your league earned run totals comparable to real life earned run totals? How is Rube Waddell, Christie Mathewson, Eddie Plank doing?
Like bwburke says, it is probably small sample size. I have players hit 30 or 40 points higher or lower for a single year but over a 10+ year career, their stats will be very close to there real life stats.
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Old 12-04-2019, 11:59 AM   #6
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As Reed and Scott1964 indicated, it would be good to make sure something isn't wrong with your statistical modifiers that is throwing results off.

But mostly I suspect it is what others have said here about the small sample size.
It doesn't appear that we have good box scores to consult regarding the 1902 season but on Retrosheet I find a few stretches during the 1902 season where it appears that Cy Young had some rough outings that likely didn't lead to ERA's in the range you mention here but certainly approaching that.

Now, these are just some rough estimates based upon guesswork but it appears that Young started for Boston on May 2nd, a game which his team lost to Baltimore 14-6. While Young completed most of his starts in 1902, the fact that he was again the starter the following day likely indicates that this wasn't one of them. But looking at the line score that we have for that game, Baltimore scored 8 of their runs in the first two innings. Let's say, for sake of argument, that Young gave up these 8 runs and then was pulled (just didn't have it that day.) The next day he was much better and Boston won 10-1. But in his next start, May 7th, although the Americans won, their opponent Washington scored 8 runs.
So let's say that Young pitched 2 innings in the first game and gave up 8 runs, then 9 innings in the second game giving up just 1 run, followed by a third game where he also worked the complete game (just guesses here, but educated ones) in which he gave up 8 runs. In 1902, 70% of runs scored were of the earned variety. So let's just go with the average and figure he gave up 12 earned runs over 20 innings pitched for a 5.40 ERA.
Then there is a period in September of 1902 (a 5 game stretch in this case), starting with the game of September 6th. Washington defeated Boston 3-2 in this one. In his next start (09/09) Boston lost 3-2. Three days later Boston won against Philadelphia 5-4. On the 15th, in the second game of a doubleheader that was called (darkness?) after 8 innings, Boston lost to Philadelphia 9-2. And then on the 19th of the month Boston again lost to Philly, 6-4. Again, given that Young completed 41 of the 43 games he started that year, let's assume he pitched all of these innings. So 44 innings pitched, 27 runs allowed, 70% is 19 earned runs= 3.89 ERA. But for fun, let's take out the second start in this row and just look at 4 games that are mostly consecutive. That would be 35 innings pitched with 24 runs scored against him. Assuming the average of 70% earned that means 17 would be earned, which leads to an ERA of 4.37.

Again, neither of these stretches would have led to a 6.20 ERA given the assumptions I am making, even if all of the runs allowed were earned (well, if all of the runs in the second stretch, excluding the 09/09 start, were earned it would be very close- 6.17) And maybe more of these runs were unearned than was average for the time period- or less.

But the essential point is that even the greatest of pitchers can have a 4 game stretch where they struggle and even Cy Young in 1902 appears to have had a few such stretches.

I wouldn't panic yet.
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Last edited by BirdWatcher; 12-04-2019 at 12:14 PM.
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Old 12-04-2019, 12:21 PM   #7
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Also, check talent change randomness. If you want total accuracy, dial it down all the way.
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Old 12-21-2019, 06:44 AM   #8
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Also, check talent change randomness. If you want total accuracy, dial it down all the way.
If you want "total accuracy," better to "Disable Player Development." No point in it if you're recalculating ratings every year (and it can lead to other weirdnesses).
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Old 12-24-2019, 01:07 PM   #9
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What are your settings? Here is Cy in my world
Your Cy Young won exactly 511 games? That's remarkable.
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Old 12-24-2019, 05:38 PM   #10
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Your Cy Young won exactly 511 games? That's remarkable.
creepy isn't it.
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Old 12-27-2019, 10:22 PM   #11
rbonaccorso
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So I have been playing for a bit and am at mid-season. Here is my rotation and I feel something is wrong. So my question is... What should my settings be?
Jack Chesbro 6-8 4.30 (Real Life 28-6 2.17)
Bill Donovan 8-6 3.21 (Real Life 17-15 2.78)
Christy Mathewson 7-7 3.56 (Real Life 14-17 2.12)
Cy Young 7-7 4.51 (32-11 2.15)
This should not be a .500 pitching rotation.

Last edited by rbonaccorso; 12-27-2019 at 10:25 PM.
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Old 12-28-2019, 02:13 PM   #12
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A couple of things.

a.) This is a simulation, not a replay so there is no guarantee that the players are going to have the exact stats they had in real life. There are going to be occasions when the randomness means they may have quite a different year, although in general they should end up with similar numbers to what they had (particularly their advanced ratio stats). For pitchers, this could be very dependent on the defense you have out there for them.

b.) What do your league-wide statistics look like? Is offense up across the board? There may be an issue with your League Totals. You want to make sure it is set to automatically adjust league totals after each season.
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Old 12-31-2019, 07:14 PM   #13
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Out of the box historical replays work very well. Every change you make from that increases the probability of error.
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